Oscar Charts - All acting categories two weeks before Globe & SAG nods
Friday, January 22, 2021 at 2:40PM by Nathaniel R
Zendaya smiling because the camera is absolutely besotted with her.
As strange as it is to note, it's still worth reiterating that Academy voters don't begin to fill out their nomination ballots for another five and a half weeks (!!!) A lot of things can change in that long of a stretch of time. Films and performances can move in or out of favor in two weeks time, let alone five! But here is where our crystal ball is right now...
BEST ACTRESS
McDormand and Davis all locked up. Mulligan getting there but we still worry that Promising Young Woman will be way outside Oscar's comfort zone. The other two spots could be more volatile than previously thought. I've boosted Zendaya up for Malcolm & Marie. She is giving you full movie star in this two-character Cassavates inspired picture and the camera just loves her. That said Malcolm & Marie will surely be divisive as some will find the characters insufferably narcissistic (and the running time of 106 minutes is a lot when you're only in one set with only two actors). But what is going on with Vanessa Kirby? She hasn't been boosted by critics so perhaps that Venice win that everyone was so convinced meant a potential Oscar player is not going to translate after all?
Steven Yeun facing considerable odds while farming in Minari and when Oscar campaigning in a stacked category
BEST ACTOR
Hopkins & Boseman all locked up but, honestly, it's still volatile otherwise. Lindo and Ahmed have critical support but do they have enough of it given the stiff competition and the fact that Boseman has received the lion's share of whatever critical boost actors can get from precursor season? Oldman and Ben-Adir have far more typically Oscar-friendly roles in Best Picture hopefuls but both feel vulnerable for very different reasons (lack of true love for the film and low profile, respectively). Meanwhile Yeun and Mikkelsen and Hanks have strong films and surely some degree of industry goodwill though we haven't seen them show up much yet in precursor season. But the televised mainstream awards could well change that -- SAG & Globe noms arrive in just two weeks time. Ben Affleck is still campaigning, too, and it's pretty easy to picture him as a surprise Globe nominee, isn't it?
Fishback in awe of Daniel Kaluuya (as Oscar voters were when they first noticed him in Get Out)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
The least competitive race in that only about 7 women feel like they're being discussed at all. But nobody yet feels like a winner which makes this exciting, don't you think? The obvious possible disruptor is fast-rising actress Dominique Fishback who is gifted with a role in Judas and the Black Messiah that is the kind of 'longsuffering girlfriend' stock part that Oscar voters often need a fix of. If they love the film, she could totally land in the nominee list.
See that? That's a textbook case of Category Fraud!
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
The most confusing race, at least for this pundit. Something just doesn't feel right about any combo of five I toy with. Eager to hear your thoughts on this one. For the first time I've moved critical leader Paul Raci into the top five but honestly still very doubtful he can pull it off with so many more famous men with much larger roles vying for a spot. Do not get me started on Stanley Tucci's campaign. It's the most shameless category fraud we've seen in quite some time. It's as ridiculous as Rooney Mara in Carol or Jamie Foxx in Collateral or that time they tried to pretend that Keisha Castle Hughes from Whale Rider was a "supporting" actress (Oscar thankfully corrected the latter category fraud attempt though they usually don't mind).
Reader Comments (47)
I'm still baffled at how Arliss Howard isn't getting any attention for Mank. All the reasons that people are saying Dance could get in you could easily graft to Howard as well — plus, his role is way more prominently featured and showcased. What am I missing?
Obviously we'll need to wait for the Globes and SAG to announce their decisions, but I'm thinking that Bakalova and Youn will overtake Close - her film is just too critically reviled.
I think Blanchett for Elizabeth: The Golden Age would be the last time an actor was nominated for a film this hated, right?
BVR - Completely agreed! The movie is a bit of a stinker, but Arliss Howard is one of the highlights for me.
Still baffled at people considering Maria Bakalova for a nomination.
And I will be really mad if Riz Ahmed don't make it. But I also think he is vulnerable.
I also can't fathom Bakalova for a nomination, no matter how many precursors she wins.
Max Von Sydow in "Extremely Loud" is what comes to mind for a Glenn Close parallel.
I fear everyone is overestimating "Minari," which has barely shown up anywhere and would be easy for voters to overlook this year.
I mean, with the Academy's changing demography coupled with such a weak field, I think the aversion to a Bakalova nomination is all but gone...
I also fear Mulligan is this year's Gyllenhaal in Nightcrawler/Lopez in Hustlers, but there doesn't seem to be a lot of competition in Best Actress, so I can easily see her and Zandaya getting in.
About Best Supporting Actor, I'm also confused. Nobody seems passionate about any of those performances despite maybe Raci, who I also wouldn't call a lock just yet. I can see Kaluuya winning, I guess (it's that kind of role and he's in a good position), and I think nominating Boseman for Da 5 Bloods would be kind of offensive.
Paranoid Android: Except, other than Nomadland, barely anything has shown up all that much AT ALL this year?
I find the lack of faith really troubling... I think BOTH Bakalova and Young Yuh-Jung are going to be nominated.
What is more, I have a strong feeling they are the frontrunners, not Seyfried and certainly not Colman... 5th spot is among Burstyn, Close and maybe Fishback, as you point out.
But at this point, I think Minari is the year's only real alternative to Nomadland. If Nomadland takes best picture, Bakalova may win here... if not, watch both awards go to Minari's way.
Also... something that should be really obvious... if Zendaya is rising, so John David Washington is, as the film is an acting duel between both, and Washington already has Tenet this year, and the sense of maybe have been snubbed for BlacKkKlansman a couple of years ago... never understimate the power of the Washingtons (will Julia Roberts campaign for him, too?)
Supporting Actor *could* include four black actors, which would be pretty amazing.
Odom Jr, Boseman and - if the early hype is to be believed - Kaluuya seem pretty likely.
And I wouldn't be surprised if Turman rallies with a SAG nomination. He did win LAFCA after all.
Jesus Alonso: Rising, sure, maybe. Enough so to pierce Lead Actor, a category way more entangled with Best Picture heat than Lead Actress? Yeah, doubt it.
It will be interesting to see how your perception of 'buzz' plays out. My friends and I work in the industry and all the online chatter and critics awards mean little. There are just too many voices out there, mostly of people who exist on twitter. Twitter is a sound-chamber. So it will be interesting this year in particular when were not going to parties & screenings - I think people will be more inclined to vote on gut instinct .. but we'll see! All that said, I think there will be many surprises and no one is a lock per say. Just a hunch :)
From previous thread:
1. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland
3. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
4. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
5. Meryl Streep, The Prom
The Golden globe nomination ( possible double nomination or win) will help Streep. Sorry but if Meryl gets the SAG nomination she is in! And one of these spots are usually lighter material. Never bet against Streep in terms of voting academy members - not critics or pre cursors.
Oh and WOW, isn't Best Actress amazing this year! I've yet to see Zendaya, Pfeiffer, Day or Beharie, but the 11 other performances in that Top 15 are pretty formidable.
And the fact that Jessie Buckley, Julia Garner and Sidney Flanigan (all amazing), not to mention Rashida Jones and Cristin Milioti, can't even crack the Top 15 speaks to what a strong year it was for leading female performances. Hallelujah!
Supportin Actress is going to be very interesting. My predictions:
1.Seyfried
2.Burstyn
3.Bakalova
4.Collman
5.Foster
Close is out, and if they move Streep (The prom) into this category, or the actress of Minari. A lot of posibiliteis.
David Strathairn strikes me as the type of actor who could make it in at SAG or even just show up on Oscar morning. He's good, and if Marina de Tavira could get in, it's plausible to see him making it too if voters love Nomadland just as much.
I found Kingsley Ben-Adair a bit underwhelming. He's good, but without him being a star and without the film being a huge hit/part of the cultural conversation, it's easy to see him land a Golden Globe nod and nothing more.
Riz Ahmed, who won a sort of surprise emmy a few years ago, has been around hollywood for a while and feels like he's heating up. I think he'll make it in. It's hard for me to imagine Raci even being in the top 7-10 of his category without Ahmed being in the top 5. Ahmed is the draw and he delivers.
Nathaniel: I am completely flummoxed by Supporting Actor as well. I just hope Boseman doesn't get in. My final five predictions are Odom Jr, Raci, Cohen, Kaluuya, and Turman.
And while I feel the reviews will not be kind, Day looks absolutely on fire in TUSVBH trailer. Mulligan, Davis, and McDormand are locks. Fourth spot looks to be Zendaya. Fifth spot is between Day and Kirby, with Pfeiffer, Winslet, Loren, or Streep being potential spoilers. I am going with Day for now.
Kaluuya, Odom, Cohen, Raci and then the question becomes Murray or Tucci. I think Kaluuya is winning unless Murray goes wild with his campaign. Odom will get Song instead. I know I'm biased on Raci but he has such a compelling, unique story and I do think voters will watch the screener. That will be the battle for Murray and Tucci.
If anyone got a boost it's certainly not Boseman from the moment it was announced he'd be in MRBB till the moment he sadly died he's always been in the conversation for Best Actor,why try and rewite him as an underdog,if anyone got a boost it was Riz and Delroy.
Raci Cohen Kaluuya Rylance Strathairn are my picks for supporting actor.
Depending on how the next several weeks go, I wouldn't be surprised to see Sidney Flanigan pull off a nomination that feels very much in the vein of a WINTER'S BONE or PRECIOUS. It doesn't happen often, but it feels like momentum of current precursors has her in at least the top 10 right now.
Nathaniel, I'm curious as to why Sidney Flanigan's so low. Too small a movie? She's been so acclaimed in precursors
I agree that there's no combination of Supporting Actor that feels right.
No Olivia Cooke on the chart! She's so great in the movie
Clarence -- too small a movie and not really an actor's showcase movie, either.
Mark -- i'm not rewriting Boseman as an underdog. I'm simply stating facts (although i realize facts is a weird word for something as intangible as "influence". It's just that the critics awards only play into oscar influence insomuch as a) the voters pay atention and b) the chorus of voices is overwhelming for one person. Boseman didn't need the critics -- you're right he's not an underdog -- but the critics really went there so he got the only significant boost.
Broadview -- i absolutely agree with you. I try to keep that in mind which is why i dont usually glom on to internet hype the way twitter does. For instance, I think everyone is smoking crack that Close is totally out of the picture just because she's in a movie that twitter hated and I also think THE FATHER and NEWS OF THE WORLD are still possible even if twitter isn't interested. . I also dont think all the critics awards in the world will get any performance nominated just on principle... which is why i dont think Flanigan can happen. Just not that kind of performance and not even a star breakout kind of thing.
eurocheese -- the Tucci thing is driving me crazy. The movie isn't any good and its also so fraudulent. argh.
Was painful that Meryl Streep won her 3rd Oscar over Viola and gonna be harder now that seems Frances McDormand gonna win her 3rd over Viola too.
I demand a leading Oscar to Viola Davis!!
What about Robin Wright?
"Can she break into the top five? Well, for starters, we don’t know who the top five will be. We think we know, but that has yet to be confirmed. I will consider Wright as being a strong contender at this point." (Sasha Stone)
I just feel going into the race he and Hopkins were assured and Lindo/Ahmed were not and they've won awards too.
Reviews today were pretty bad for "Malcolm and Marie." Zendaya is emerging unscathed, but I think her nomination will come for something else in the future.
Although I don’t think she’ll get in this year, surely Saoirse isn’t that extreme a long shot.
Clarence -- i must have dropped Olivia Cook on accident but sady i think she's an extreme longshot.
So... Will Amanda Seyfried win an Oscar by virtue of being the only lock the entire season (aka the Christopher Plummer route)?
To be fair, it's not just Twitter that hated Hillbilly Elegy, but about 3/4's or more of all critics. Thus, no precursor love. But people do like the film and Close has still got a decent shot of getting in.
I want Pfeiffer and Foster to be nominated because they are two fantastic but very lazy actresses and maybe an Oscar nomination can make them feel the joy of starring in movies again.
^ But Plummer was an overdue veteran. If anything, that comparison can also be made with Close
Tucci's supporting label is indeed ridiculously absurd. And offensive, too, if you really wanna examine it. I'm curious though, how often to Raci types get in when the Ahmeds do not. And by that i mean the far less famous actor gets a nomination when their co-star who is already famous does not. When they're both in the hunt, I mean. I feel like they go as a package deal. Surely if you like one enough to nominate then you also nominate the other.
As for the rest of the category. I'm not fan of Boseman or Da 5 Bloods, but he seems in, doesn't he? Likewise Kaluuya and Odom Jr (who isn't my fave from MIAMI). I think Strathairn will ride coattales like Alan Alda, and then add Cohen.
I can see Streep being nominated for a Globe, but she will have to be spectacular to ever be nominated again for an Academy Award. She already has the film and television catalogue to support an entire cable channel (next up, Death Becomes Her, followed by The Post. Tomorrow night, Postcards from the Edge and Doubt, etc.). And it's Sandra Bullock's fault that Viola lost, because had Meryl won that year, Viola would have won sooner. I think they may nominate Pfeiffer, just because why not and she should come back. I think Viola will win again, even though Frances may be in a better film.
I think it's funny that Viola Davis deservedly won a supporting Oscar for what I considered a lead role, and now stands a good chance of deservedly winning a lead Oscar for what I consider a supporting role.
I must be oblivious to Zendaya's 'star power', yet i think John David Washington has said 'star power', yet all anybody talks about is his father.
John David is no Anjelica Huston.
Is Pfeiffer not featured in any precursor awards because her film doesn’t open until Feb? Her reviews have been amazing. And I’m tired of hearing Viola Davis’s name included whenever she’s in a movie!
@Jamie. "Never bet against Streep in terms of voting academy members - not critics or pre cursors." Streep didn't get nominations for LITTLE WOMEN, THE LAUNDROMAT, RICKI AND THE FLASH, IT'S COMPLICATED, MAMMA MIA! or THE MANCHURIAN CANDIDATE, BEFORE AND AFTER and all of those were infinitely better (the films, Streep's work) than the affront to man known as THE PROM.
@ Mikko- nominations for all of the films you just mentioned were never going to happen. I am a proud Streeper but I am also in touch with reality.
In my defense just look at history- one could argue that Streep has not been a critic or precursor favorite for even her last 4 nominations. For the Post- she earned a Golden Globe nom- missed SAG AND BAFTA- and still for the Oscar nomination. In most of theses cases, she moves up in ranks once Golden Globes and SAG nominations are announced but rarely do pundits have her in top 5 at the start due to perceived “fatigue”- which however ever true for some is NOT shared by Academy voters.
Streep is mostly getting best in show for reviews for The Prom. Her songs rival those from into the Woods ( which lets face it) she earned the nomination really from one song ( had nothing to do with character). I think most voters have actually SEEN it and I think, sadly, for the older academy voters, Streep can get in during a pandemic with little campaigning and name recognition.
AND- she is actually competitive for a Golden Globe Win this year- which has not been true for her last 4 nominations. Not being included in the drama Golden globe ( which will be a bloodbath) with what? 10 deserving performances being whittled down to 5 - maybe even throwing Amy Adam’s into the mix?
Anything is possible
I don't know if I'm alone in this, but I didn't believe Vanessa Kirby's pregnancy. She moved so lightly, so effortlessly for due time.
Late to the party, but given the mediocre reviews for Malcolm and Marie, I think Zendaya will have a tough time making the line-up. The pop stars who have been nominated for acting in recent years (Gaga, Mary J. Blige, Latifah) have been nominated for acclaimed films with multiple nominations, and there are any number of veteran actresses they can bestow a filler nom on.
I'll believe Viola is a lock when her name is announced on Oscar nominations morning. Chadwick is the towering figure in Ma Rainey, with Glynn right on his heels.
It's a shame Nicole Beharie is getting so little attention for Miss Juneteenth; hers is the leading actress performance of the year. No tricks, no ticks, no mugging, no makeup or false teeth, just damn good acting.
Please No Nomination for Streep this Year! There are far way more deservng Performances in the Mix and the last nominations of her are just laughable.
I also hate the fact, that Kate gives such an astaounding performance and will mostly liek be snubbed.
And I kinda ate that Seyfried is the Frontrunner with such a okay performance, which Close can easily won for and yet its likely that she isnt nominate this time. We need Colman vs. Close 2nd time! ^^ But hopefully Colman or Burstyn could upstage Seyfreid. I am one of the few, which loves MANK, but still cant believe that Mank is fading and Seyfried is still rising! Why? I am fine with a nomination but a win? Come on. She is 96% horrible as an actress and the one time she is better she ot an oscar over such legends? Please no!!!