Oscar charts: The more interesting than we were expecting it to be "Best Director" race
Friday, December 31, 2021 at 2:21PM by Nathaniel R
The annual competition for Best Director at the Oscars is in a very interesting era. The Academy has become increasingly international so, in theory, we can expect more international figures to pop up in this category rather than just the superstar auteurs. Though it's long had the same racial problems as the acting categories it's always had those in a much less visible way... until recently. And it wasn't all that long ago that people (or, more specifically, the media) didn't grouse about no women being up for the prize. The movement for equity behind the camera only went truly mainstream in the past decade. Female directors have always been around, of course, if not in the same numbers they are today it's a topic Juan Carlos is currently investigating as he moves backwards in time through the Oscar years in his series "Through Her Lens" (new episode drops tomorrow).
For the first time in history we could be looking at a second consecutive win by a female auteur since Jane Campion is currently the favourite for The Power of the Dog. But who else will join her in the lineup?
UPDATED OSCAR CHART
Opinions will vary here on the idea of "locks" -- people like to pass that word out like candy online. We hesitate to use it before the always crucial DGA nominations though we think that Jane Campion is safe. Members of the Director's Guild are already voting but, unlike with the Oscars, they have a long stretch in which to do so. Their voting period runs through January 26th, 2022 with their nominations coming on January 27th, 2022. Very broadly speaking they usually predict 4 of the 5 Oscar nominees. It's worth noting that their membership is MUCH larger and much less international.
Beyond Campion it gets (slightly) trickier. Kenneth Branagh (Belfast), Steven Spielberg (West Side Story), Denis Villeneuve (Dune), and Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorize Pizza) are all very high profile, very well respected previous nominees in the category and all have reason to hope their names will be announced once again in February. But will it really be that simple?
THE SPOILER
We think that Adam McKay could well be the spoiler and knock one of the expected candidates out. He's done that twice before with The Big Short and Vice. This would be his third consecutive upheaval of the Best Director race at the end of the year with a comedy. But, hey, when they love you they love you. The question is not "do they love McKay?" as they obviously do but "when will his hot streak end?" because all every-time-you-do-something-we-love-it hot streaks do (with the exception of John Williams composer and Meryl Streep lead actress but those are different categories.)
LOW PROFILE BUT BIG MOVIE
It would also be foolish to entirely write off the possibility of a nomination for Reinaldo Marcus Green for King Richard if that film has the Best Picture heat many think it does. Yes, he could be left out by way of not being as famous, as critically established, or the movie not being obviously auteurist like the other frontrunning films. But he could always make it in on the strength of this one movie -- that's happened many times before.
FRESH BLOOD!
There's always the possibility, too, that Maggie Gyllenhaal surprises. A month ago we wouldn't have believed this (even though we loved The Lost Daughter) but she somehow managed to suck up nearly all the oxygen in precursors when it came to the very specific "exciting newish filmmaker" categories that we previously thought would be spread out amongst Lin-Manuel Miranda (tick tick BOOM), Rebecca Hall (Passing), Julia Ducournau (Titane), Michael Sarnoski (Pig) and more.
INTERNATIONAL DREAMS?
Finally, there are the subtitled movies to consider including very well respected filmmakers like Paolo Sorrentino (The Hand of God), Asghar Farhadi (A Hero), Ryusuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car), and Pedro Almodovar (Parallel Mothers). Could any of them surprise? Much has been written about the Academy's expanding international membership and the idea of a "foreign slot" but how real is that notion? It's not neccessarily a given that international directors will always vote internationally since revered American auteurs like Steven Spielberg and Paul Thomas Anderson are usually loved abroad, too. What's more several of the high profile English language Best Picture contenders are not directed by Americans. Jane Campion (New Zealand), Denis Villeneuve (Canada), Guillermo Del Toro (Mexico), Kenneth Branagh (Ireland) all have international appeal as well. We currently suspect that there are just too many buzzy subtitled features still being discussed for any of the non-English language films to be able to build enough of a voting block in this category in this particular season.
But maybe you feel differently? Do tell in the comments.
Reader Comments (18)
Adam McKay getting nominated again is a depressing thought. Ugh.
The first Adam McKay movie I’ve seen is Don’t Look Up, and it was just okay. I don’t think it should be nominated for anything, let alone the top directing prize. Yikes.
i can't imagine McKay getting in; the film doesn't seem very well liked, and it doesn't have the potential nomination haul of a VICE.
I'm personally crossing my fingers for Lin-Manuel Miranda. His direction is impeccably sharp and inventive. It's a shame his film is being so underrated beyond Garfield.
I know it's dying fast, and won't be surprised if it ends up with 0 nominations total, but I really loved Nightmare Alley. I would love to see former winner Guillermo Del Toro be the surprise fifth nominee. It's the movie that has impressed me the most from last year (but I have lots more to catch up on).
I still think it's the top five, partially because I can't decide who would fall out. I'm not even confident Don't Look Up makes BP. I feel like Drive My Car has a stronger Screenplay chance, and I'd say the same is true for The Worst Person in the World. I'd be over the moon if Ducournau could pull it off, but that feels like hopedicting.
After Campion, my vote would go to:
Lana Wachowski.
Inventive, thoughtful, playful, entertaining, willing to take risks, with proven skills, heartfelt, American ... what’s not to love?
McKay didn't really sneak in the last couple times out - Abrahamson and Pawlikowski were each more surprising.
BUT it would be so discouraging for him to become a 3-time nominee in this category the same year that Campion makes history as a 2-time nominee.
The top 5 seem impenetrable. I think Spielberg misses if any do, but even despite the “box office bomb” press, none of the others are strong enough to dislodge him.
Directors branch seems to love “surprise international” nominees like Vinterburg and Pawlikowski… to me this screams Hamaguchi given the extent of critical plaudits. Branagh strikes me as vulnerable even if the film shows up everywhere else.
I actually liked Don't Look Up better than anything Mackay's ever done but still don't think he should make the cut. I can see it in BP though.
If Champion and Gyllenhaal both got nominated, I'd consider that a huge win. We need more female directors acknowledged.
Given its surprising success with even small regional American critics' groups - where it's getting shortlisted for Picture and Director prizes, not just foreign language film - I suspect Ryusuke Hamaguchi has a real shot at making it in for Director (as well as Adapted Screenplay). Plus he has the higher profile LA and NY critics' wins for the film on his side.
I don't see McKay getting in. I feel like Campion, Villeneuve and Anderson are probably safe and that Hamaguchi's inclusion could come at the expense of Spielberg (it's happened before) or Branagh (in a shock that cements Belfast as the Picture frontrunner).
as long as campion gets in [and wins] i don't really care who the seat fillers are
Seems like the West Side Story bit on the chart needs updating.
I think it's Hamaguchi, but I'm also not sure about Spielberg
I said this in a comment on a previous article already, but I’m already preparing to declare my bold prediction for a snub this year will be Denis Villeneuve in this category. Maybe it’s not such a bold prediction after all considering I honestly don’t think ANYONE is a true lock here other than Jane Campion. I could even see a scenario where two of the assumed five miss out in favor of two somewhat more esoteric picks (like what happened in 2012). But I don’t know, I just have this gut feeling Villeneuve is the most vulnerable based on the director’s branch’s recent history. Dune seems to be coasting into the Best Picture lineup based more on respect for its craft than actual love for the film. I don’t see that it’s more beloved than say, The Martian or Inception were in their respective years, and both were left out of Best Director.
If I get really bold, I may even end up predicting Villeneuve and Spielberg both get left out. We’ll see.
I certainly hope Spielberg makes it. He deserves it. Arguably, he achieved the biggest feat of the year (but it gives me pause that they didn't nominate Bradley Cooper or Greta Gerwig after very successful remakes).
I, too, could see Villeneuve missing.
The idea of McKay making it over PTA is depressing but definitely conceivable.
If the presumed five get in (Anderson, Branagh, Campion, Spielberg, Villenueve) or even if McKay or Del Toro surprise, we end up with a lineup of five directors who are all previous nominees, and that hasn't happened in a very long time. Usually there's at least one first-time nominee in the group. I just can't figure out who's in the best position to take that spot.