Oscar Volley: Can Penelope Cruz or Kristen Stewart land in Best Actress?
Thursday, February 3, 2022 at 12:09AM Our Oscar Volley series is almost at an end. Here are Matt St Clair, Josh Bierman, and Baby Clyde to talk Best Actress
Matt St Clair: Even though Best Actress has a pretty clear frontrunner, the rest of the category seems mostly up for grabs. Do you guys agree and also, besides Olivia Colman in The Lost Daughter, do you think there's hope for another non-biopic performance to make the cut?
Josh Bierman: Interesting. I don’t agree that there's a clear frontrunner! I assume you mean Nicole Kidman who is the most solid lock for a nomination. This is a category where I think I have to wait to see who’s nominated before I can declare a winner...
I have a feeling Olivia Colman won’t be alone. I’m not sure if it’s my deep desire for her to be recognized that’s informing my opinion, but I think Penélope Cruz will be joining the lineup. She’s picked up major critics prizes, but her performance is also one to which actors will flock. Just recently we saw actors like Lupita Nyong'o and Robin Wright take to social media to campaign for the actress. I think her trajectory will be similar to her husband when he was nominated for Biutiful. Both won a major international prize then saw no follow-up precursor nominations. Mounting buzz then lead to a surprise nomination. And we can’t discount the typical Sony Pictures Classics roll out. It may be an absolute pain for filmgoers but it clearly works with voters.
Matt St Clair: I agree with you on Cruz. That kind of passion could propel her into the final five despite her missing the BAFTA longlist. I'm just not sure who she takes out.
Too much? @eyesoftammyfaye pic.twitter.com/VYjsMoUhs3
— Jessica Chastain (@jes_chastain) January 26, 2022
I'm tempted to say Jessica Chastain because hardly anyone is talking about that movie anymore but that performance is Biopic Mimicry 101 and she's due for another nomination. Then there's Lady Gaga who is in a divisive movie but a huge star in a film that was a box office success durin the pandemic. Plus, she's campaigning like crazy.
I do think Cruz is likelier than someone like Alana Haim who has the benefit of being in a Best Picture contender (Licorice Pizza) but maybe hasn't inspired the same kind of industry passion.
Josh Bierman: I'm convinced Lady Gaga is about to run her mouth right out of an Oscar nomination. It's one thing to campaign hard, it's another thing to do so by saying the most inane things whenever given the opportunity.
i look at a different reaction every time pic.twitter.com/L3Kvo8NLrh
— alex (@alex_abads) January 14, 2022
I keep thinking back to that THR roundtable when she talks about feeling drunk from the prop drinks and everyone looks at her like she has three heads. Gaga's performance was good, but she was in a completely different movie than everyone else (not necessarily her fault). Someone like Chastain gave a great performance in a movie that wasn't very good, but at least it matched the tone of the movie. I can see the actors branch not giving it to Gaga this time. Especially when she was just nominated for a much better movie.
Matt St Clair: Actors thirsting for an Oscar is nothing new and I don't want to accuse Gaga, or other actresses, of being too wanting when plenty of men haven't been accused as such, but maybe she has gone overboard. About being on a different wavelength -- well, the movie doesn't know what tone it's aiming for. But regardless of whether the acting branch nominates Gaga or not, I don't think she's winning even if she's not on as shaky of ground as Kristen Stewart in terms of securing the nomination. At this point, Spencer feels like Kristen Stewart or bust (unfortunately).
Baby Clyde: Penélope has been #1 in my predictions for months. Initially because I really thought it was going to happen and more recently because I’m absolutely flummoxed as to what’s going on in this category. My main reason for keeping her around is that none of the contenders feel like winners (Does anyone really want Nicole to ger her 2nd Oscar for that?). Kidman and Colman are definitely getting nominated but I'm not convinced either is on a path to victory. Having been leading the pack since the beginning of the race, Kristen’s chances have flagged in recently weeks which knocks her off the top spot but with no one else properly taking her place.
There doesn’t seem to be muchh passion for anything which is why I think if she gets in Cruz could potentially win.
I think Lady Gaga is wonderful in House of Gucci. She’d easily get my vote from those in contention. I’m far more into Movie Star Gaga than her Pop Star incarnation. I’m also not so down on her chances as you seem to be. Cringy campaigning doesnt register with Academy voters the way it does with us Oscar obsessives. Many may even relate! She’ll get a lot of credit for headlining the sort of mid-budget adult drama that we don’t see enough of anymore and a sizeable box office hit to boot, solely based on her star power!
We can all agree that Chastain is the most vulnerable. I’ll almost certainly be cutting her. I just don’t see where her first place votes are coming from. The question is do I just replace her with Cruz or boot someone else and predict a resurgent JHud as well? I have a feeling it’s happening. Are the Academy going to show Jennifer any R.E.S.P.E.C.T? Will they give us an Acting/Original Song nominee combo for the 5th year in a row?
Matt St Clair: Well, the SAG nomination for Jennifer Hudson shows a sign of strength given the movie's early release. Plus, she's a previous Oscar winner playing a real-life person who was handpicked by said icon to play her. All those factors could only help her along. As will Best Original Song. The movie surrounding her isn't at the level of her performance, but as history has proven time and time again, voters don't care about an overall film's quality when it comes to biopic performances. The reviews for Chastain and Gaga's movies aren't all that much better than Hudson's.
As for Cruz, though, she does have clear passion which has me inclined to predict her to make the cut. I don't know about the win, though. I'm still sticking with Kidman as the frontrunner because of her recent Globe win and the PGA nomination for Being the Ricardos, indicating it could be up for Best Picture which is an advantage none of her competitors seem to have. Then again, Golden Globe winner Rachel Zegler is also in a Best Picture contender, but it's rare for someone to win a lead acting Oscar for their acting debut. Meanwhile, Chastain, Cruz, Gaga, Stewart, and Hudson aren't in films with as much broad support. Even The Lost Daughter feels like Best Actress and Best Adapted Screenplay only.
I don't know. They could just reward the true best actress of 2021, Tessa Thompson for Passing, or make it a tie between her and Renate Reinsve in The Worst Person in the World, but we don't live in such a reality.
Josh Bierman: I also think Tessa Thompson did beautiful work in Passing, but this is a category that doesn't usually go for quiet performances (especially this year). I'm not sure the comparisons to Negga are helping her either.
One person who we haven't brought up is the reigning Best Actress champ herself, Frances McDormand. While I enjoyed her interpretation of Lady M, I don't know if it necessarily warrants a nomination. However, the Academy loves her. Denzel is a slam dunk for a nomination, but do we think the folks who propelled Fran to a mildly surprising third win last year will be putting her on their ballots again? Five-time Fran has quite the ring to it...
Matt St Clair: Well, Frances McDormand quoting Macbeth in her Best Actress speech last year could be an omen. Also, like you said, AMPAS loves her even if with her clear apathy towards awards. But I think a nomination is as far as she'll go. Not only because she just won her third acting trophy but Lady Macbeth is a borderline supporting role. Not as supporting as the Witches or Lady Macduff, of course, but still a straddler. Do I think she could make it? Absolutely. With her track record, anything is possible. But I'm predicting she sits out this year.
Baby Clyde: I think the Academy may be done with her for a while. Her win last year was much deserved but once it happened it immediately felt like overkill. She’s a great actress. One of our best but having more Best Actress trophies than Bette Davis, Ingrid Bergman, Jane Fonda, Meryl Streep etcetera doesn’t feel right, especially whilst Glen Close still has zero wins! When people win in quick succession it’s quite common for the Academy to take a break. With so many other deserving contenders this year I can imagine voters not making a McDormand nomination a priority.
My #1 Best Actress of the year is Jasna Đuričić in my film of the year Quo Vadis, Aida? The problem is it’s a film with one of those weird release schedules that straddles two years and consequently gets a bit lost in the shuffle. It got nominations from BAFTA, Indie Spirits and Oscar's Best International Feature award for 2020 (so it's not eligible for the Oscars this year), but wasn’t officially released until well into 2021, winning big at the recent European Film Awards, making President Obama Best of 2021 list and even getting numerous nominations at our very own Film Experience Awards. Back in the 1960’s it was a common occurrence for films contending for the Foreign Language prize to turn up in open field categories at the following ceremony but that's no longer allowed. Still, there was no better leading actress performance in either year.
Matt St Clair: Jasna was amazing. Another great leading performance in a non-English language film in a year full of them. Not just Penelope Cruz and Jasna Duricic but Renate Reinsve in Norway's Oscar finalist The Worst Person in the World, Agathe Rousselle's gender-bending work in Titane, and Maren Eggert who won Best Actress at Berlinale for Germany's Oscar finalist I'm Your Man.
Josh Bierman: I'm eagerly awaiting the release of The Worst Person in the World this weekend. I wish I could have seen it before this conversation.
We've yet to address Kristen Stewart, who was once the most formidable contender in the bunch, but now even just a nomination is no sure thing. The Academy does love actors playing royals, so she has that going for her. Not to mention that the performance is excellent. The film itself is more divisive but at least strong choices were made. Most of these movies centering real people are run-of-the-mill biopics that we've seen before. Her omission from the SAG Best Actress line-up is worrisome. It's also a little surprising considering how long she's been working in the industry. She's worked with a lot of folks, so I'd have expected more support. She's another case like Cruz where there is a small group of cheerleaders, but they are vocal. I've seen Julianne Moore posting about her and working the circuit for her. But is that enough? A week and a half ago I thought she was still safe, but now I'm not so sure.
Matt St Clair: I think Stewart is at a point where the nomination itself would be the win because as great as she is, her chances are probably shaky because the movie is less of a biopic and more of a psychological drama that happens to center around Princess Diana. As you said, they tend to prefer biopics that are more traditional. Even when I first saw it, I sensed it wouldn't be AMPAS' cup of tea.
Baby Clyde: So who are our final predictions? I’m pretty sure Kristen Stewart still makes it so I’m going with:
- Nicole Kidman (Being The Ricardos)
- Lady Gaga (House of Gucci)
- Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter)
- Kristen Stewart (Spencer)
- Jennifer Hudson (Respect)
Although I VERY much want to include Penelope Cruz so I might change my prediction before the nominations. As is that’s really not a vintage lineup there.
Josh Bierman: Oh man, this is tough. BAFTA may change things, but on the other hand Penelope isn't even on the shortlist there, so maybe I'm just looking for excuses to cover my ass if these blow up in my face. Here we go:
- Nicole Kidman, Being The Ricardos
- Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
- Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
- Jennifer Hudson, Respect
- Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Breaks my heart to leave out Kristen Stewart, but maybe we'll be surprised.
Matt St Clair: Here's where I now stand:
- Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
- Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
- Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
- Jennifer Hudson, Respect
- Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Pains me to leave Stewart off but I think she'll just miss the cut. Hope I'm proven wrong.
Only three women are predicted by all three of us - Colman, Hudson, and Kidman. Do you agree?
Reader Comments (21)
I WANT to predict Cruz but how in the heck did she miss the BAFTA longlist?!
This breaks my heart ❤️ because I LOVED her performance but I think Gaga misses.
Thanks for this series of write ups.
I enjoyed Quo Vadis Aida but I wouldn't nominate the Lead Actress.
I'd like to also give a shout out to Tessa she is my current winner.
My runner up currently is Isabelle Fuhrman in The Novice physical acting with character development and a killer Oscar clip scene.
I have a sinking feeling Chastain misses but to me her film is better than Spencer,Respect and BTR.
I agree I would rather Kidman won for something towering than 3rd tier work like this,if she wins it will be a Sally Field 84 moment,it'll be good to see her up there I just wish it was for something else.
Colman seems to be becoming this decades Emma Thompson.she's a solid nominee though and there is always a repeat nominee from the previous year.
I watched Respect a 2nd time and Hudson was better than I remembered so maybe she's in
I personally thought McDormand was great in TTOM but a nomination now seems a stretch
The 2 new comers are my biggest question marks,they are both in likely BP nominees and both have critics and reviews behind them,a surprise would be one or both of those making it.
Stewart's SAG snub is puzzling maybe Bafta will revive her chances,I didn't like her in it though so her miss wouldn't bother me like it would if Chastain missed.
Not seen Haim,Cruz or Ga Ga yet
mY nominees prediction would be
Zegler,Colman,Kidman,Stewart and Ga Ga.
I completely agree that Cruz, if she gets in, she might win it. Specially IF Being the Ricardos isn't nominated for Best Picture... and oddly enough IF Bardem is nominated for Best Actor.
But at this point, if Cruz isn't nominated, she's SO WINNING next time she's nominated in Lead.
(by the way, it's almost impossible to explain why Cruz is such a winner performance, without spoiling the film, and the obvious Oscar clip, which I hope they don't use, because it really spoils one of the film's best and most touching moments... just use the giving birth close up at the beginning and people gets the point of the intensity she reaches)
Lucille Ball is not an icon in Europe. Hope that counts for something.
... and just to verify... I think PM is DEAD anywhere Oscar, but I wouldn't be in shock - weird, isn't it? - if it got some nominations in any of these: Picture, Director, Actress, Supp. Actress (in a wtf nom for Milena Smit), Original Screenplay, Score... it kind of feels like the kind of film that could surprise on nomination morning...
... but I don't think it'll happen, and at this point, I'd say ZERO noms.
Cruz desperately deserves an award for this performance!
Gaga does not deserve a nomination. I was so put off by her acting. At the point in the ridiculously awful movie (maybe the worst I have seen in over a year, and maybe since seeing Johnny Mnemonic in the 90s) when Maurizio decides he wants to leave her, Gaga's acting went down the toilet. She didn't display the dimensions of a woman scorn. Sorry not sorry.
Every time I see clips of Gaga in House of Gucci I’m reminded of how terrible she was in that movie. Charismatic, yes. Great acting? Not by a long shot. It was laughably bad, the Russian accent, the histrionics, etc. And then she tells these other actresses how she gets drunk off prop drinks aka WATER 🤦🏻♂️ I cringe. I’m sure she’ll be nominated but I would be very happy if House do Gucci got nothing.
I’m still pulling for Kristen Stewart. Should be a slam dunk nomination, regardless of what your thoughts of the movie are (admittedly I loved it), she delivers.
I pray they do not nominate Jennifer Hudson. Not embarrassing like Gaga, but not Oscar-worthy by any means. Aretha? Not for a second.
Jessica Chastain seems extremely vulnerable. Maybe it’s the terrible prosthetics.
I would be elated to see Tessa Thompson show up out of no where. Lol
The presumed lineup for BA does not interest me much this year. Maybe if any of these actresses could sneak in (whose chances are nil to near impossible), then I'll have someone to root for:
Honor Swinton Byrne, The Souvenir, Part II
Josephine & Gabrielle Sanz, Petite Maman
Tessa Thompson, Passing
Toko Miura, Drive My Car
Or even those within the realm of the possible, let them be:
Renate Reinsve, The Worst Person in the World
Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
Emilia Jones, CODA
Chastain, Colman, Cruz, Kidman, Stewart
If I were cynically factoring in the #OscarsSo of it all, I’d replace Cruz with Hudson. But I’m saving my cynicism for Best Actor and the Supporting categories.
(Wish list: Chastain, Cruz, Reinsve, Stewart, Thompson)
The BAFTA nominations are out and Coleman, Cruz, Kidman, Chastain, Zegler and Stewart are NOT nominated. Not a one of them out of 6 nominees. Lady Gaga is, though. Chew on that for awhile.
BAFTA giveth and BAFTA taketh away.
I just mentioned this in the BAFTA thread but Haim showing up there makes me think we might be underestimating her in this unpredictable category. She missed SAG, but got BAFTA, Critics Choice, and Globe noms, and has more critics awards than anyone but Stewart. We know the movie will be widely seen (unlike Cruz, Chastain, or Hudson) because of its best picture / director status. Not saying it is a likely scenario but she seems a more likely wildcard than Cruz, Zegler, or McDormand at this stage. e.g. I could see the lineup being:
Colman
Kidman
Stewart
Haim
Gaga or Hudson
Gaga most likely led BAFTA voting and has a good chance to win there. She's not going to be snubbed.
Jules: I hope you're right.
Peter - I responded on that thread as well, but I have been saying for a while now that Alana Haim is definitely a dark horse. I started to really take her into account when I noticed how many critics awards she was picking up, and now she's only missed at SAG. Plus Licorice Pizza is doing well. Hmm.
Well, I posted my previous comment before seeing BAFTA noms lolll, I pray Gaga does not win that (she probably will 🤦♂️).
Phillip -- I keep hearing this sentiment
but what of those of us who DONT think she delivered and is part (though hardly most) of the film's problems?MJC -- i agree that Gaga's performance in the back half of the movie is the problem (though i guess I still iked her performane better than you did).
One thing that's crazy about the oscar conversation is that every time you think you have all the info you suddenly don't. hello BAFTA ;)
Just a few passing thoughts. I don't really have a 5 best list. I think the Academy ignores Penelope Cruz as a leading actress because they figure she'll win a Goya. I don't understand why they refuse to give Pedro any attention. He has made some wonderful movies over the years.
I don't really mind if Nicole doesn't get nominated for BTR. I would be sharply disappointed if Jessica Chastain doesn't get a nom for Eyes of Tammy Faye. I thought she was wonderful and the movie had a fresh feeling to me.
Otherwise, I thought The Lost Daughter was very entertaining and Olivia was quite good.
Nathaniel -- that's fair! I guess I just won't understand as I loved the film / her performance lol.
My predictions:
Colman
Chastain
Gaga
Kidman
Cruz
I think Stewart just misses.
Regarding Gaga's accent in Gucci--watch the side-by-side videos on YT of her compared to an interview with the real person she's portraying. She sounds just like her. Sorry, but I can't listen to any more of these hollow criticisms.