98th Academy Awards: FINAL PREDICTIONS!

by Cláudio Alves

Ryan Coogler's SINNERS is the most Oscar-nominated film ever! But will it win the most awards at the 98th Academy Awards? ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER is tough competition.

The 98th Academy Awards are almost upon us, so, on this last day before the festivities, let’s put our pundit hats on and try to suss out whom AMPAS has picked. Nine Team Experience writers, including Nathaniel(!), have provided their best guesses, evidencing some interesting trends, some even more interesting conflicts. One of the big questions is who’ll reign supreme between the two Warner Bros. Best Picture frontrunners. Will it be the all-time nomination leader or the critical darling whose director has been due for ages already? Nat is betting on Sinners getting the biggest haul of the night, including Best Picture, while others, like Eric Blum and Juan Carlos Ojano, don’t even think the vampire flick will beat Frankenstein in sheer number of victories. Presently, I’m the only one predicting Sinners getting the most wins with One Battle After Another still taking Picture. Only time will tell who’s rightest among us. 

Without further ado, please venture, after the jump, to see the full prediction charts, plus some added commentary from the team…

Because list-making and stats get us going, I’ve added a collective prediction, aggregated from the combined prediction rankings of all writers here. It’s under “Team Experience,” in contrasting red. Click on the charts to enlarge.

CLÁUDIO: Despite a surge of Sinners love right during the voting period, I still feel One Battle After Another has this. Unless it goes the way of Traffic in 2000, which is possible! A Hamnet victory wouldn't be completely out of the blue either, though much less likely. I imagine the Neon titles will receive a lot of passionate #1 votes, but not enough. Same goes for Marty Supreme. The order of those last four is mostly random, as I don't think any of them has even the concept of a chance. 

ERIC: I suppose Sinners does have a shot, but I don't see the international voters going for it as the pick for very best of the year.  BAFTA and the Césares named PTA’s latest Best Picture, and the huge block of actors who pulled Sinners to a SAG victory aren't among much of the Oscar voting body.  I think One Battle After Another will pull through in a larger margin than many people think.  

EUROCHEESE: I will want to revise this as soon as I see Best Actor, but I think the momentum shift will be enough. Would not have predicted this call in January, but here we are. 

ABE: I've said all I can say in our Oscar Volley - I think One Battle After Another still has this.

BEN: More than anything, I think people got fed up with the straightforward narrative of One Battle After Another.  Not the narrative of the film itself, but the frontrunner narrative it held for the last six months.  Sinners is incredibly well-seen and beloved.  It will be a worthy winner, and one that people will be able to get behind.  The Academy will also be very happy with the result. 

NATHANIEL: I like Sinners, but putting it above One Battle After Another is i-n-s-a-n-e. Alas, the Oscars might well Oscar in the end.

CLÁUDIO: Less of a nail-biter than a lot of the categories where Sinners and One Battle After Another are coming head-to-head. Mostly because I feel there's such an overdue narrative around PTA that not even the passionate Ryan Coogler fans will be able to make him the first Black Best Director winner. It should have happened, multiple times, for decades, but this will not be the year that the glass ceiling is broken. 

ERIC: Coogler has been directing features for twelve years.  PTA has been doing it for thirty.  Coogler has made some good films.  PTA has made several masterpieces.  It's his time.  He's winning. 

EUROCHEESE: Safdie and Zhao are basically at a draw for dead dead, but that's my only spicy call - no way she wins again.

ABE: Coogler is a possibility, but PTA has yet to win an Oscar, so I think this is his.

BEN: It's so funny how One Battle After Another and Sinners were going head-to-head this entire season, but Coogler could never get an edge in this race.  They both should end up with multiple statues by the night's end, but it's a funny way the season has come together. 

NATHANIEL: While I doubt there are many “locks” this Oscar night, this is surely one of them? There is another place to honor Ryan Coogler and Anderson has been nominated so very many times without success. Surely having a hit that's so enjoyable and that spent months as a frontrunner will finally make the difference? 

NICK: Anderson and Coogler are both guaranteed to win Oscars in the screenplay categories, no matter what else happens. Maybe this means the voters will throw Josh Safdie a bone? As fucking if! PTA's got this.

CLÁUDIO: The only settled acting race of the year. Maybe a miracle can happen and Byrne takes it, but I doubt it. Hudson is on the run, too. The run for second-place, I mean. 

ERIC: Buckley took a very difficult role and filled it with grounded emotion and awesome wonder.  Her character is both uniquely literary and human.  Agreed with everyone that it's the only acting lock of the evening, and so well deserved.  A win that will look great fifty years from now. 

EUROCHEESE: The one category where a surprise would be crazy, though Byrne and Hudson will have votes. 

ABE: This is one of the only surefire things. I do believe that Hudson is in the second position rather than Byrne, not that it matters. 

BEN: This is the symbolic win for Hamnet as much as it is for Buckley and the performance itself.  Byrne would have been a pretty cool win, but this is the type of performance that will stand the test of time.  In the bag. 

NATHANIEL: The only acting "lock" of the evening. I imagine there is a very comfortable distance between Buckley and Byrne. And there isn't nearly as large a gap between Byrne and Hudson. Still, all in all, a wonderful lineup with all exemplary performances.

NICK: Buckley's name is already engraved on this bad boy. Good for her.

CLÁUDIO: Going with the SAG winner as the safe option, though I feel Moura has been campaigning like nobody else this season and DiCaprio could pull ahead, riding on the coattails of his film's Best Picture force. Indeed, I'm terrified of making the same mistake as I did last year in Actress, assuming it'll be between the SAG winner in a horror movie and the Brazilian Golden Globe champion when, in truth, it was always going to be the Best Picture's lead. Chalamet feels unlikely at this point, but that may be wishful thinking. Only Hawke would shock me. 

ERIC: I think the SAG voting body (which is huge and extraordinarily populist) just love MBJ.  But I'm still not seeing it translate to this Oscar voting body.  I am absolutely "hopedicting" Moura here, knowing it's unlikely on one hand, but that with this kind of curious mix of the five actors, the passion for the film (a foreign film that scored a BP nomination) and his actual performance might pull him through.  It would be the most exciting moment of the night if he wins. 

BABY CLYDE: I just can't get fully on board with this MBJ surge. Until SAG, he was, by all accounts, dead last. Literally, no one was predicting a win. It wasn't even certain he was getting a nom. Now suddenly he's the favorite???  Timmy has definitely dipped, and Wagner doesn't quite have the momentum (he's feeling very wishful thinking just like Fernanda Torres was last year), but Jordan coming all the way through for a win at this late stage seems doubtful. The missing info is, of course, who came second at BAFTA, which we'll never know. That's not to say he can't win, as, at this point, none of them would be shocking. But if he does, we can basically thank John Davidson.

EUROCHEESE: If it's DiCaprio, I demand a chance to switch my Best Picture vote. :)

ABE: I'm not sure what to do here. I do believe that Chalamet's chances have dwindled, and as ecstatic as I'd be about Jordan winning, I'm just not seeing it. Hawke feels like too much of a long shot, and it's funny to not even factor DiCaprio in. That leaves me with Moura, which would also be a delight. 

BEN: What a bizarre race.  Truly feels like anyone not named DiCaprio could walk away with the trophy.  At this point, nothing would surprise me.  Jordan has all the momentum, all the goodwill, and none of the negativity.  In our current world, I feel Marty Supreme has been the biggest victim of our political landscape.  They are not in the mood for this kind of film. 

NATHANIEL: It's hilarious to think that predicting the early frontrunner is a wild risk, but that's how I'm feeling in the end. When SAG-AFTRA steps away from expectations, it's almost always toward the most mainstream and biggest hit (Jordan). Plus, Chalamet had won the year before. It's exciting that four of the five feel plausible as winners, but only Chalamet and Hawke can claim that the entire film is built around their performance. And I think that might pay off for Chalamet. 

NICK: Going with a pure “hopediction” here, yet in such a tight race, I think it's fully warranted given Moura's traction since Cannes. This race is tight as hell. Persuasive arguments for basically everyone but Hawke to win, but I think Moura will keep surprising, as he's done since The Secret Agent premiered.

CLÁUDIO: Between the role and the buzz, the quality of the performance, and the general passion for her film, I'm feeling Mosaku. Madigan is close behind, and Taylor could yet benefit from One Battle After Another's popularity with the voting body. The Sentimental Value ladies are happy to be nominated. 

ERIC: I know, I know: if either One Battle After Another or Sinners wins Picture, there will likely be a matching Acting win somewhere, and I'm not predicting one.  Go big or go home!  For that reason, I'm putting Taylor and Mosaku high, knowing it's possible.  Still, this is a crazy race and could really go anywhere, but I'm seeing Amy pull through in the final stretch.

BABY CLYDE: I have no idea. My only reservation about Madigan is that, whilst she's a much-revered character actress in America, I'm not sure she's particularly well known or overdue anywhere else. Not sure US votes alone can carry her to a win, and she, of course, would have to overcome the very real genre bias. 

EUROCHEESE: Really tough call. I want to put Madigan third, but Mosaku's BAFTA win feels like a Brit thing. It has felt like a Taylor win all season to me.

ABE: I'm really torn, though I'm confident it's between Taylor and Madigan. Ultimately, the support for the former film vs. the latter having its only nomination here makes me think it's going to be Taylor. 

BEN: A truly great lineup, with Taylor sneaking out the win over Madigan.  I can't help but think of every race as One Battle After Another vs. Sinners, and this gets them even in the acting wins.  Madigan would be a cool win, but horror bias is real.  Wish the Sentimental Value ladies had more gas.

NATHANIEL: A Madigan loss would break my heart, so maybe this is “hopedicting,” but really, in terms of inspired acting, this is the choice. That said, a win for Mosaku or Taylor would not be out of the question. Still, given the volatile season, I'm guessing we'll see the veteran take it in the Oscar tradition of "hag horror" as much as I despise that term.

NICK: I still say Madigan, Mosaku, and Taylor are neck-and-neck (and neck) for this award. Madigan being her film's only representation in a sea of Best Picture contenders makes me appreciate how folks have shown up for her all season, an optimistic framing I think could pay off.

CLÁUDIO: The BAFTA + SAG combo is hard to argue against. Then again, Lindo could pull a Marcia Gay Harden, only his win would make more sense considering Sinners is 100 times more beloved than Pollock ever was. Skarsgård was my initial prediction, but his and his film's buzz have been dwindling. Same goes for Elordi. And I guess del Toro was just a regional critics favorite, bound to be nominated but never a threat to win.

ERIC: Perhaps another case of “hopedicting,” but again, with the international contingent, and Skarsgård performing nonstop in commercial and art cinema for thirty years... everyone in the business has worked with him and he has one of the best reputations out there.  This is probably his one shot for Oscar, and I see enough co-workers across the fields checking his box.  But I certainly won't be surprised to see Penn win... it's a phenomenal performance and would be very well-earned.

BABY CLYDE: Funny how Penn has gone full circle from complete lock six months ago to afterthought and now back to nailed on favorite. I wouldn’t be shocked at a Lindo win, but it does look as if we're about to get a new member in the three-time club. 

EUROCHEESE: It's the BAFTA miss that really throws me for Skarsgård. Penn isn't campaigning, and all that early year Del Toro love could land here. All five have an argument.

ABE: It would seem crazy for a well-regarded film like Sentimental Value to go home empty-handed. But putting Del Toro last also doesn't feel right because people considered him the frontrunner for a while. Penn and Lindo could easily go along with their films, while Elordi has lost all steam since CCA. I think Skarsgård can win. 

BEN: Everyone overreacted to SAG, but Skarsgård really hasn't missed much of anywhere.  Do we really want to give Sean Penn three Oscars with his off-screen history?  Doesn't seem to gel.

NATHANIEL: While early buzz was all Skarsgård and late buzz was all Penn, I feel like the late surge from Sinners has to pay off big somewhere, so I'm going with this since I'm pessimistically predicting a Sentimental Value shut-out and I can't quite see Sean Penn winning a third Oscar.

NICK: Could it be the Globe winners all over again? I kinda hope so, even if Skarsgård is a terrible fraud. Penn's late surge is real, and he could very well be the only avenue for One Battle After Another to win an acting prize. The degree to which he hasn't campaigned for it compared to Lindo or Skarsgård makes his victories more impressive and more annoying. Give it to someone else, please!

CLÁUDIO: Neon has been campaigning for The Secret Agent like nobody's business, as they should. Hell, give casting director Gabriel Domingues an Oscar for his screenwriting work in films like Marcelo Caetano’s Baby. But I doubt any amount of campaigning will be enough to defeat the Warner Bros. behemoths. I suspect Sinners will get this, though One Battle After Another feels like a better fit for the category, considering the discoveries, the mix of professionals and non-professionals, different acting styles, etc.

ERIC: I'll concede to Sinners on this one.  Lots of great faces, previously underutilized talent, and exciting choices. 

BABY CLYDE: I was heartened that the branch members actually did their job and specifically nominated the Best Casting rather than the Best Cast. I do not trust the larger voting body to do the same. The Secret Agent or Marty Supreme should be the easy favorites, but I suspect it will just go to a Best Picture frontrunner.

ABE: If One Battle After Another wins here, that's the official end of the Sinners upset train for Best Picture. 

BEN: Are they honoring the film, honoring the cast, or the casting director?  New categories are always hard to pin down, but Sinners has been the frontrunner all year. 

NATHANIEL: There's no reason to believe that Francine Maisler will lose this award. Not only did she assemble a wonderful and popular cast for Sinners, the cast has a discovery AND she is also a legend in the industry. I don't even think the vote will be close here.

NICK: I'm hoping it's One Battle After Another, and I think it and Sinners have similar appeal with their mix of fresh discoveries, old pros showing new facets, and vivid day players. Either would be great! Also, kinda hoping Secret Agent pulls an upset!!

CLÁUDIO: This is 100% going to Coogler. Panahi is the only one I could imagine trouncing him, mostly because of how many emails I've received about him and his writing team from Neon over the past few weeks. It's bizarre how much they seem to have dropped Sentimental Value, perhaps thinking it already has enough buzz. 

ERIC: I'm still personally mystified by Coogler winning everything for this screenplay, but he's not going to stop winning now.  Probably one of the safest locks of the night at this point.  They'll want to see him go home with an Oscar on Sunday.

ABE: There’s no way Sinners loses this.

BEN: Coogler gets his Oscar 

NATHANIEL: This one is locked up for Sinners, though a surprise win for Sentimental Value would be thrilling. 

NICK: Congrats on your Oscar, Ryan Coogler!! But where is The Secret Agent?

CLÁUDIO: Even if he loses Best Director, PTA is coming out of the Oscars with a little golden man. Once upon a time, I might have entertained the possibility of a Hamnet, even a Train Dreams win, but they both underperformed for nominations, so I don't think the passion's there. 

ERIC: There's no way PTA is losing this one either.  He's going to do a Sean Baker on Sunday and walk off with an armful of Oscars.

ABE: If One Battle After Another loses, watch out in Best Picture. 

BEN: PTA wins as a writer, because it's preposterous he hasn't won as of yet. 

NATHANIEL: Locked up for One Battle for Another -- it'll be weird to give Paul Thomas Anderson multiple Oscars in one night for the same film when he's been worthy multiple times for different films, but this is how Oscar usually does it. 

NICK: Congrats on your Oscar PTA!! But where is Die My Love, or Pillion, or The Naked Gun?

CLÁUDIO: Even if F1 feels like a classic Best Editing winner, I'm not sure many films will be able to get in the way of the Warner Bros. dynamic duo this season. A tad boring, but it's what it is.

ERIC: Much like Anora last year, One Battle After Another will walk away with this award in addition to Picture, Director, and Screenplay.  When they love something, they go all in. 

ABE: F1 feels like a distinct possibility, but honestly, it could also be Sinners.

BEN: Best Picture lite, but One Battle After Another gets the nod because its editing is actually great.  F1 surprising wouldn't blow me away, as they love their racecar movies with their history with Ford v. Ferrari.

NATHANIEL: I genuinely think this one is a three-way race, but in the end, One Battle After Another's got the frontrunner status and the great action set piece, which to my mind means that Sinners and F1 lose because they each only have one of those things.

NICK: Racecar go vroom and war go boom have been stable winners for a while now, and since One Battle's chase is eons more fun than F1's, I hope it wins!

CLÁUDIO: Any of the top three feels correct, but I'm betting on Train Dreams’ landscapes cinching it the win. A somewhat risky move, since one has to go back to A River Runs Through It to find a film winning Best Cinematography without a Production Design nomination or a Best Picture win to go along with it.

ERIC: Won't be a bit surprised if One Battle After Another wins this one too, but in the spirit of being an outlier, I'm going with Train Dreams.  Its BP nominations means everyone has watched it (theoretically), and it's so much more "conventionally beautiful" than the others that I think people will throw it a bone.

EUROCHEESE: Could easily be a Best Picture frontrunner, but the pockets of love for Train Dreams landing here, where we can all agree it was incredible, makes sense.

ABE: Train Dreams would be a cool winner too, as would One Battle After Another, but I think that it has to be Sinners.

BEN: My heart says Train Dreams.  My head says Sinners.  This would be like The Zone of Interest winning Sound.  It would be a decidedly cool win if Train Dreams pulls it off, but Sinners is hard to top. 

NATHANIEL: This is an unfortunate outcome if you don't like Sinners' cinematography (I don't), but it's got a lot of heat late in the season, and I think Train Dreams is too quiet to pull enough voters away from a noisy frontrunner. 

NICK: Arkapaw's won too much this season for me to bet against her, even as I've bitched about her lighting all season. Train Dreams would be a great winner, but I'm not sure we're gonna see many films get around this year's juggernauts.

CLÁUDIO: Apart from One Battle After Another, all contenders here have a strong case. Hell, Hamnet could pull a Lincoln! Still, in a category where voters often equivocate "more" with "best," there's no beating Frankenstein. 

ERIC: Another one of the surest bets of the night. 

ABE: I'd be excited about Sinners, but Frankenstein feels like the surefire winner.

BEN: Great door knockers, beautiful door knockers. 

NATHANIEL: Another unfortunate outcome, when I'd say that Frankenstein is the least deserving of the nominees, but if the competition is tight, you predict "Most," and in that adjective, it is definitely the winner. 

NICK: I hope Marty Supreme can pull out a win here, because Jack Fisk does such spectacularly detailed work here and because he's long overdue for an Oscar. I'm sure Frankenstein's gaudy excesses or Sinners' expansive juke joint will triumph instead. Really, any of these would make a great winner.

CLÁUDIO: Same logic applies here as in Best Production Design. That being said, it's often true that the general voting body can gravitate to the oldest time period depicted by default, which would give Hamnet the advantage here. And then there's Ruth E. Carter, the closest we have to a big-name costume designer who might be known even to those who don't follow such things. Could she become a third-time winner in a year when Penn and Göransson seem poised to do the same? Has that ever happened in Oscar history? 

ERIC: Voters like to go all in on the design awards as well, unless there's a reason to stray.  Here, there isn't.  

BABY CLYDE: I just don't think that Frankenstein is winning all three craft awards. This seems the most vulnerable.

ABE: Could it be Sinners instead? Doubtful. 

BEN: Del Toro's ornamentation wins out over anything else.  Bigger usually is the winner in this category.

NATHANIEL: Pulling for a Sinners upset --- but I think the "Most" factor is definitely in Frankenstein's favor, especially considering that there are only a couple of costume changes in the whole of Sinners.

NICK: If Ruth E. Carter wins this, I'll be sooooo delighted.

CLÁUDIO: The fact that there are new systems in place that require the voters to watch all nominees - or directly lie about it - before submitting their ballot in any given category makes me believe there might be some surprises in store. Frankenstein is still the frontrunner, and Sinners' popularity is hard to fight against. Yet, Kokuho seems like a dark horse, a potential spoiler that would gag everyone, me included. 

ERIC: And this will make three for the artisans of Del Toro's pic.  As much as it has its detractors, it has its passionate fans, and this is the easiest way to reward it.

ABE: A cool category, but could it really be anything other than Frankenstein?

BEN: Would have loved a push for The Ugly Stepsister, but the nomination is the win here.

NATHANIEL: A win for Kokuho or The Ugly Stepsister would be so amazing and shocking and deserved, but it's going to be Frankenstein. I don't even think Sinners has much hope of getting around it.

NICK: ANOTHER category where any of these would be strong victors, though I'd put The Smashing Machine at a distant fifth spot from these other divas. I wonder if the success stories of The Ugly Stepsister and Kokuho give them a narrative to triumph over the Best Picture nominees, but that feels like wishful thinking even for me. 

CLÁUDIO: The Avatar series has fallen out of favor, but surely it can still win here? Right? Or are we headed into another one of those years where Best Picture nominees win absolutely everything available to them?

ERIC: Like them or hate them, these Avatar movies are technical achievements on a whole other level.  This feels like a very safe win.

ABE: Sinners winning here would be a shock, but it won't happen. 

BEN: If anything other than Avatar: Fire and Ash wins, it would be an upset of monumental proportions.  If Sinners wins, then you can talk yourself into the bigger picture shenanigans. 

NATHANIEL: At some point all Oscared franchises begin losing the thing they could count on before. I would say that Avatar 3 is vulnerable in that regard except that the competition is so weak this year. 

NICK: This is not a serious category.

CLÁUDIO: Probably the biggest lock of the night. If One Battle After Another somehow manages to win this one, I guess it'll take Best Picture for sure. And probably a couple of other awards I'm currently predicting for Sinners, too.

ERIC: Another easy lock. 

ABE: I really hope this goes to Sinners - it's such a deserving winner.

BEN: Jonny Greenwood already feels like an Oscar winner, despite being 0-3 so far.  Görannson is starting to feel like the new generation John Williams.

NATHANIEL: It's going to Sinners for sure since it's also a musical. But in that regard, I wish it could win Best Song instead and share the wealth by giving this to One Battle After Another.

NICK: Ludwig doesn't need a third Oscar, even if this is probably the best work he's been nominated for yet. Still think One Battle After Another should walk away with this.

CLÁUDIO: Better luck next year, Diane. Between the phenomenon that is "Golden" and the Sinners passion, I can't see how she pulls off her much-awaited competitive victory. Doesn't matter that she put out a feature-length FYC to boost her chances. Not this year. 

ERIC: This award is always my least favorite and every year produces the weakest-quality nominations.  And the fact that the producers of the show are only allowing two of the nominees to perform is deeply, deeply gross (and indicative of how lame this category is). 

EUROCHEESE: "Sweet Dreams of Joy" is only so high because I have no idea why they love it so much, which means crazy longshot spoiler. But it'll be "Golden." 

ABE: No commentary needed – “Golden” is the winner! 

BEN: Pretty funny how Diane Warren will think she should have won when she is a distant third at best.

NATHANIEL: What the hell, I'm going to predict an upset. "I Lied to You" is synonymous with Sinners in that it's the peak of the whole film in terms of creativity, execution, thrills, originality, and music. "Golden" will probably win, but I'm taking this risk since Oscar voters are less beholden to "big hit" status in this category than their cousins (Grammys, Globes, CCA, etcetera). 

NICK: Yes, it's KPop Demon Hunters, but what if it's Train Dreams? The fuckery with the live performances makes me hope for an upset (that's not Diane).

CLÁUDIO: Hard to pick between two of this category's favorite subjects - action movies with a lot of vehicular effects and music-focused narratives. And all three have explosions, which makes this trickier. I'm assuming F1 pulls ahead, but don't hold me to that. 

ERIC: This feels like a no-brainer.

EUROCHEESE: I was thinking F1 all season, but this absolutely makes sense as a place where Sinners overperforms. 

ABE: I'm tempted to predict Sirat, or even Sinners, but I think F1 wins here. 

BEN: The only category where One Battle After Another and Sinners are both nominated, but should both miss.  F1 seems like the play, but Sirat surprising would be a way to honor the effort. 

NATHANIEL: I wanted to predict Sirat in the spirit of The Zone of Interest, but in the end, it's just not as popular a film. I think this is where F1 gets its flowers.

NICK: I would LOVE it if the divas who rewarded The Zone of Interest two years ago are similarly discerning about Sirat's sonically enveloping dread. F1's expensive proficiency makes more sense for this category, but I dislike it, so no thank you. If One Battle's unglamorous ballistics or Sinners' Delta milieu pull this off, so be it, but I'd rather watch Sirat's team rave all the way to the podium. Frankenstein eats dirt.

CLÁUDIO: I know Zootopia 2 has those astronomical box office numbers, but is anyone passionate about it the same way legions, including within the industry, are about KPop Demon Hunters? I don't think so. RIP to the two French films that should be frontrunners yet are non-factors. 

ERIC: Another safe lock. 

ABE: No commentary needed here! The days of a Little Amélie upset are long behind us.

BEN: Never dropped from anywhere but number one the entire season.  Weird that nothing else came close to unseating it.

NATHANIEL: An easy win for the year's most obsessed over toon.

NICK: Locked and loaded, enjoy your second Oscar, KPop Demon Hunters.

CLÁUDIO: This race has been all over the place, but I'm guessing the BAFTA winner repeats here. Mostly because I fear it'll have more international appeal to a growingly international Academy than the three American documentaries listed here, even if The Perfect Neighbor has been considered the frontrunner for months now.

ERIC: I think the Netflix-ability of viewing The Perfect Neighbor will bring it to victory.

ABE: I could see The Perfect Neighbor taking this, as many people are predicting, but I think that Mr. Nobody Against Putin has the right combination of information providing and entertainment to win this category, just like Navalny did a few years ago. 

BEN: Eyeballs matter in this race.  More people have seen The Perfect Neighbor than any of the other nominees combined.  I would be surprised by anything else. 

NATHANIEL: The Perfect Neighbor is popular, but I'm going to predict Mr. Nobody Against Putin because it's also timely and I've learned not to bet against Denmark (this was their submission for International this season, though it wasn't nominated there) at the Oscars.

NICK: After excitedly watching shortlisted films that weren't nominated, I'm unexpectedly apathetic here. But giving it to The Alabama Solution would heal those wounds nicely.

CLÁUDIO: The Secret Agent has the best timing and the best campaign. Sentimental Value has the most nominations. The Voice of Hind Rajab has the rule that demands voters watch all nominees going for it, as it's the most harrowing of the lot. It Was Just an Accident could also benefit from that. Sirat is lucky to be included in the conversation despite those numerous Oscar shortlist showings.

ERIC: It literally pains me to not pick Sentimental Value here, as it should be winning in a walk.  But if I'm going to pick Moura to win Best Actor, his film needs to win here for him to win there. 

BABY CLYDE: This lineup is far better than Best Picture. In fact, I would rank the perceived frontrunner, Sentimental Value, last. I'm going with The Secret Agent as it's not just my favorite of the bunch, it's my favorite film of the year, and if I don't, I'm afraid that The Hairy Leg will hunt me down.

ABE: Even though Sentimental Value has more than double the number of nominations, I think Brazil will repeat here. Takes me back to Pan's Labyrinth vs. The Lives of Others, where the former won three prizes for three of its six nominations but still lost to this race to the latter, which was only nominated here. 

BEN: Nine nominations isn't an accident.  A stacked category, but the Nordic team will probably end up on top.

NATHANIEL: I am so desperate for Joachim Trier to hold an Oscar for his amazing filmography, but I just have a hunch that Sentimental Value is going home empty-handed. And since I think Moura *could* win Best Actor, I think Brazil goes two-for-two.

NICK: All excellent choices!! Hoping for Secret Agent, secretly voting for Sirât, lighting a candle for Sound of Falling.

CLÁUDIO: I'm assuming the sheer beauty of Butterfly and The Girl Who Cried Pearls will count for something. Guessing the former wins out because it feels more "important" in that way AMPAS loves. However, my conventional wisdom of predicting those I like the least should give the advantage to Retirement Plan and The Three Sisters. Am I foolish for being optimistic? Probably.

ERIC: I feel like this category almost always surprises, so who knows?

ABE: While the other four are very visually appealing, I think Retirement Plan will win voters over with its immersive narration and emotional intensity over a short time period.

BEN: Good nominees, with The Girl Who Cried Pearls’ stop-motion winning out over traditional animation types. 

NATHANIEL: While Butterfly is definitely up Oscars' alley (thematically) and The Three Sisters is just greatgreatgreat and hilarious (quality!), I'm going to guess The Girl Who Cried Pearls for the insane craftsmanship and because it stands out from the pack both in that way and being the only stop motion option.

CLÁUDIO: Perfectly a Strangeness is too good and too abstract, while The Devil Is Busy seems a tad too formless and not prescriptive enough for this category. So, I'm guessing voters will go to either the films that feel "important" and/or to the ones that make them cry the most. All the Empty Rooms is the intersection of those possibilities, so there you have it.

ERIC: All the Empty Rooms is very moving and feels like the safest pick. 

ABE: Fairly confident that All the Empty Rooms is ahead in this race. 

BEN: Lots of emotion running through these docs, but the "nicest" of the nominees will probably win out.  Anything winning outside of the donkeys wouldn't blow me away.

NATHANIEL: In the end, I never got around to watching these.

CLÁUDIO: After I’m Not a Robot won last year, I'm guessing this category keeps going for relatively high production value, high-concept, low-fi, sci-fi, European shorts. Hoping for The Singers, though, and strongly considering the possibility of Butcher’s Stain winning on the basis of its theme, despite a clunky structure and student film demerits. A Friend of Dorothy has the star-power, while Jane Austen’s Period Drama has my dislike as its biggest case for a win. 

ERIC: Two People Exchanging Saliva Is the weirdest, darkest, Frenchiest croissant possible. I was obsessed with it.  But it is super divisive, so The Singers might pull through, and that would also be a wonderful victory.

ABE: I actually think any of these films could win, which is pretty crazy! A Friend of Dorothy and The Singers have a certain charm, while Jane Austen's Period Drama is absolutely hilarious. From the serious contenders, Butcher's Stain may be the most topical and could surprise, but I think Two People Exchanging Saliva seems like the frontrunner to me. 

BEN: Throw your hands up and take a guess.  A Friend of Dorothy has some star power, The Singers has the eyeballs, Jane Austen’s Period Drama has the comedy, and Two People Exchanging Saliva has the memorable hook.  They will probably end up being populist. 

NATHANIEL: Two People Exchanging Saliva and A Friend of Dorothy definitely have their fans, but I'm guessing that The Singers is just too easy to love and too easy to see (Netflix) that it will prevail (though the shorts categories do sometimes defy all expectations).

For those keeping count, here’s how the ceremony will go according to our collective predictions, under “Team Experience.” One Battle After Another is the big winner, with six wins, including Picture, Director, and two acting trophies. Sinners is close behind with five predicted statuettes, while Frankenstein has three, and KPop Demon Hunters two. Hamnet, The Secret Agent, Avatar: Fire and Ash, and F1 all get one Oscar each according to the team. That would mean four Best Picture nominees would exit the night without a single win – Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, Bugonia, and Train Dreams. Out of all these races, Best Actor is the tightest, with very little separating Jordan from Moura and Chalamet in the team’s collective punditry. It’ll be a nail-biter to the very end.

Now, it’s your turn. Please share your own predictions in the comments, and let’s all congregate on Monday to see who was the best pundit of us all.

Comments

[Wes]

It’ll be interesting to see how things play out, but as a weirdo outlier who disliked both “One Battle After Another” and “Sinners”, I confess that the only real category I’m interested in this year is whether Amy Madigan wins her trophy for “Weapons.” Hope so.

[Mike in Canada]

I love all the chaos in so many categories. My only real disagreement with the general consensus is that I don't think Best Actor is up in the air. I think it's Jordan's, with slight chance of upset.
I think Chalamet is having a Hathaway year where he just can't seem to get it right, and there's a strong, loud online base enjoying the fall. Unlike Annie in 2012, there's a likeable, rewardable alternative in a best picture frontrunner playing twins!
Would love love love to see Moura win, but it feels like wishful thinking. I think Chalamet deserves it, but I dont know if I want to watch him try to negotiate his tone through a speech at this precise moment it.

[Mr Ripley79]

I'll just do the main 6. categories

Picture Sinners
Director Anderson with Coogler a real possibility
Actor who knows my pick is Timothee but anyone but Jordan
Actress Unfortunately it's the least interesting of the 5 that will win
S Actor Lindo with Penn 2nd place
S Actress Best Pic has to in 1 acting award and I think it's Taylor but I hope it's Aunt Gladys.