Oscar Chart Updates: Picture, Director, Screenplay, and more...

Jane Campion's new film Power of the Dog has been named the Centerpiece for the New York Film Festival. Perhaps it's wishful thinking (we've loved Campion forever) but we're betting big on it for the Oscar race. The film is set in 1920s rural Montana and stars Benedict Cumberbatch and Jesse Plemons as brothers who are at odds. The rift between them grows wider once the younger brother brings a new wife (Kirsten Dunst) home. The novel by Thomas Savage has been compared to works like East of Eden and Brokeback Mountain and if the film can live up to either of those classics' screen adaptations it will be something special.

We've been working hard on the first Oscar charts of the year.  The four acting categories and international film have yet to be posted, but the rest of the charts are now up...

• PICTURE - Will streamers like Netflix or Amazon prevail or will more traditional distributors like MGM/UA, Searchlight, Focus, A24, and SPC rise up? So many films sound exciting but we won't know which deliver on their promise until later in the year.  
• DIRECTOR - Jane Campion could become the first woman ever nominated twice in Best Director
• SCREENPLAYS  - Numerous brilliant writers have new films coming but however will they choose between Asghar Farhadi, Joel Coen, Tony Kushner, Pedro Almodóvar, Mike Mills, and Paul Thomas Anderson?
• VISUAL CATEGORIES - There's (presumably) eye candy aplenty in Dune, Last Night in Soho, House of Gucci, and Nightmare Alley
• SOUND CATEGORIES - Can it finally be Nicholas Britell's year or will he split his support with three movies (Carmen, Don't Look Up, Cruella)?
• ANIMATED FEATURE - Will Disney's musical Encanto be the frontrunner? Will Flee and Belle be the more adventurous citations?
• PREDICTION INDEX - the overview snapshot

Oscar Predictions: Who will compete for Costume Design and Cinematography?

by Nathaniel R

"Cyrano" with Peter Dinklage was a hit Off Broadway. Will this musical version transfer well to the screen?

By now you've gotten a sense from the predictions for most of the craft categories which films we think Oscar voters might be fond of come January when they're voting on nominations. Now let's talk more in depth about two of our favourite races to keep eagle eyes on each year: Costumes and Cinematography.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Of Oscar's four favourite living costume designers --  Sandy Powell (15 nominations and 3 wins), Colleen Atwood (12/4), Jenny Beavan (10/2), Milena Canonero (9/4), and Jenny Beavan (10/2) -- only Colleen Atwood is sitting out this cinematic year...

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Oscar Predictions: Visuals, Score, Animation, and Sound

by Nathaniel R

The Oscar charts are finally going up. Best Animated Feature was the first a month ago but it's been tweaked to reflect Belle, rising, post its special Cannes screening, as well as Disney's stingy release of Luca. We're saving Cinematography and Costume Design for their own posts tomorrow but for now the rest of the Visual charts as well as Score and Sound are up. Yes, we're predicting a strong showing for House of Gucci, Dune, and Eternals in craft categories. Take a look and sound off in the comments. 

Yes, we're working on the Oscar charts...

For those of you who have been asking. Yes, the Oscar charts will go up soon with first predictions of the year. I'll confess right up front that this year is mighty confusing. That's partially because we're still in pandemic mode and a lot of the big studios are playing it coy about release dates and there are surely numerous sales still to happen. One assumes the studios are all watching each week's box office reports and other much more vague indicators (like streaming numbers which are rarely public and always unverifiable even when they are) to decide on the best way forward in this tough time for the industry. 

Another reason this year feels confusing is that A24 has a truckload of promising films but very few with actual release dates (and they've been known to really only focus on one once things heat up). Meanwhile MGM/UA, not usually a big player, has multiple promising titles...

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Emmy Nominations Are Here!

By Abe Friedtanzer

Nominations for the 73rd Emmys have been announced, and while it was nice to see short clips of each of the program nominees, the gimmick of having father and daughter, Ron Cephas Jones and Jasmine Cephas Jones, announce together would have worked considerably better if they had been in the same place and not experiencing a delayed reaction to their joke setups. But let’s move on to the nominees, which are mostly good but sure to reveal painful snubs as we break it down by category. It shouldn’t be much of a surprise that The Crown is the nominations leader with 24 bids, but it did tie with The Mandalorian, which added to its technical total with a few acting, directing, and writing bids.

It took me until I got into the details of the limited series/anthology categories to realize that Small Axe was almost entirely shut out, earning only a cinematography mention. I think that has more to do with its questionable TV format, though that didn’t stop Hamilton from gobbling up a horrifying seven acting slots. Another underperformer was Girls5eva, which managed exactly one nomination, for writing. It was also a sad day for Zoey’s Extraordinary Playlist, which didn’t score any of the major bids I and others thought it might. That presumed domination by a few series in the supporting categories absolutely happened, though there were a few positive and unexpected inclusions thrown in. Let’s take a closer look at the categories our Emmy team predicted (plus the guest races) and go from there...

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