Who will win SAG tomorrow?

by Nathaniel R

Is the Oscar race as locked up as we think, or will SAG hold some surprises? Care to conjecture about what will win? I'll confess, perhaps foolishly, that I think we could be in for some surprises. Conventional wisdom will tell you that Close, Bale, Ali, and Adams will be the winners... though conventional wisdom will not solve the case of "who wins Outstanding Cast?" since the arguable Best Picture frontrunner Green Book and two most Oscar-nominated pictures Roma and The Favourite are not nominated in that category. With three heavy-hitters out, and Black Panther, Crazy Rich Asians, Bohemian Rhapsody, A Star is Born, and BlacKkKlansman as the nominees, that prize is something of a mystery...

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Supporting Actor Fun: How were they nominated? What do they have in common?

RANDOM TRIVIA: Sam Rockwell is the only member of this shortlist that isn't tall! Did you know that 80% of the supporting actor category this year are 6'1" or taller? Only Sam Rockwell isn't at 5'8".

Did you know that 80% of the supporting actor nominees this year were born in California?! Now you do. Mahershala Ali (Green Book) was born in Oakland, Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman) in San Diego, Sam Elliott (A Star is Born) in Sacramento, and Sam Rockwell (Vice) in Daly City. The only non-Californian is Richard E Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?) and though you might have assumed he was born in London, you'd be wrong. He was born in Swaziland, in the late 50s when it was still a British protectorate. The country has been independent for 50 years now and last year rechristened itself The Kingdom of Eswatini. 

On the newly updated Best Supporting Actor chart you can read more trivia about the nominees, vote on who you think is best in the category every day, and share in our speculation about how they snagged those coveted nominations this year. 

ICYMI: Picture & Director charts are also robustly updated. All other charts are updated with the official nominees and preference polls if you'd like to start voting but are not fully filled in yet otherwise. 

12 Things We Learned From the Oscar Nominations

Happy Christmas Oscar Nomination Day! Herewith quick observations on the 91st Academy Award nominations.

10 THINGS WE LEARNED (OR RELEARNED) FROM THE OSCAR NOMINATIONS

Cuarón with the first of his many wins this year1. All the times that Alfonso Cuarón made his (plentiful) Best Director acceptance speeches about Marina & Yalitza as the "heart" of his film, really paid off. Voters were paying attention, even if only subconsciously and both actresses were nominated in volatile fifth spots in their categories.

2. It's tough to snag a "lone" Oscar nomination for your movie if you're a non-legendary actor. Timothée Chalamet and Glenn Close and Willem Dafoe were all working at that this year and the one that dropped out was Chalamet for Beautiful Boy. He'll be legendary one day but he just became really famous last year and the film had no other boosts to keep him in the conversation...

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Live Announcement: Nominations for the 91st Academy Awards

Related Articles: 
• 12 things we learned from the noms
• Adams vs Weisz, Round Two
• Best Picture Silliness
• Deep Cut Oscar Trivia
• Mourning the Snubs
• How to Stage the Original Song Performances
• Nomination Index (individual charts still being updated)

 I used to call this day my Christmas but I worry about coal in the stocking. Did we receive Oscar nomination gifts this year or lumps of coal? A little of both of course. Tracee Ellis Ross and Kumail Nanjiani were the chipper announcers this morning, making frequent jokes about how little sleep they'd gotten before the announcements.

The full list of nominations and how well we did on our predictions follow...

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Shorts Predictions -- All Oscar Categories Complete!

by Nathaniel R

some of the shorts contenders we're most curious about after investigating the titles

For better or worse all of the Oscar predictions are completed including the last three hold outs: Live Action Short, Animated Short, and Documentary Short. Though we have yet to see the shorts (that'll have to wait until nominations) predictions were made via an unholy combo of hunches, IMDb ratings, plot descriptions, tea leaves, blind faith, coin tossing, and a teensy bit but not much of seeing what other people around the web are saying but never following that exactly because nobody ever scores 5/5 in all shorts categories. Including me, of course, but there's always a first time. Maybe? 

 Final Predictions All Categories
INDEX | PICTURE   | DIRECTOR |
ACTRESS | ACTOR | SUPP ACTRESS |
SUPP ACTOR | SCREENPLAY  |
FOREIGN FILM | ANIMATION, DOCS, SHORTS |
VISUALS | SOUND