The Meg's Box Office Bite. Plus Ant-Man 2 Crosses $200 Million

by Nathaniel R

Until we hear further details, everything will be viewed through the lens of our apocalyptic fears about Oscar's new "popular achievement" category. Does The Meg's huge opening weekend mean it'll be up for an Oscar? I mean it has been since Jaws that a giant shark movie was Oscar nominated, so if Oscar wants to remain "relevant" they should totally start recognizing MUTANT SHARK movies! Elsewhere in box office news, Spike Lee's BlacKkKlansman opened to great reviews, and much discussion, and is a total must-see "but since it didn't open big, I guess it's not as good as Slender Man and The Men so it doesn't deserve Oscar recognition, right?" he added sarcastically...

Weekend Box Office Estimates (August 10-12)
W I D E 800+ screens	PLATFORM / LIMITED excluding prev. wide
The Meg	Three Identical Strangers
1. 🔺THE MEG  $44.5 *NEW* REVIEW	1. THREE IDENTICAL STRANGERS $700K on 326 screens (cum. $9.6) REVIEW
2. MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - FALLOUT $20 (cum. $161.9)  REVIEW, PODCAST	2. 🔺THE ISLAND $282k on 40 screens *NEW*
3. CHRISTOPHER ROBIN $12.4 (cum. $50)  REVIEW	3. BLINDSPOTTING $220k on 138 screens (cum. $3.7)
4.🔺 SLENDER MAN $11.3 *NEW*  REVIEW	4. 🔺 PUZZLE $164k on 44 screens (cum. $447k)
5.🔺BLACKKKLANSMAN $10.7 *NEW* REVIEW	5. 🔺 MCQUEEN $154k on 53 screens (cum. $750k) REVIEW

Though it did very well for a Spike Lee joint, Spike Lee joints don't tend to set the box office on fire. So should he return that Honorary Oscar? I'M JUST FOLLOWING OSCAR'S LOGIC THROUGH, Y'ALL. I seriously can't stop being pissed about this "popular achievement." notion. To quote Don Draper...

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Oscar Myth-Busting: The Academy Doesn't Like Popular Films

by Nathaniel R

The 10 biggest hits of all time when adjusted for inflation. All but one of them was nominated for Best Picture and three of them won.

We hear it every year: "The Oscars only nominate films that no one has heard of!" Every year this untruth is spread by people who a) don't pay attention to movies and are thus not the target audience of the Oscars anyway and b) don't think things through before proclaiming them and c) haven't worked out that in our increasingly niche world MANY people haven't heard of tv shows, albums, movies, or plays that are of utmost importance to a whole other group of people.

Somehow this myth of "obscure taste" has sunk deep into the Academy's own mindset and they've bought in to it. This week's catastrophic announcement suggests that they've bought into this myth that they don't like popular things to the point of self-loathing. So, here's a quick bit of factual history to bust this myth once again. Our work is never done!

Box office history is harder to suss out prior to 1980 when box office reporting became a more regular occurrence. But most historical indications suggest that the nominees for Best Picture before then were often sizeable hits. Part of the divide that's happened in the past 38 years, which people are never honest about when they complain about Oscar's "relevancy," is that audiences became progressively less interested in human drama (Oscar's bread and butter from 1928 onward), which they mostly sought out on TV, and more interested in visual effects spectacle, cartoons, and mega-sequels. The former is an Oscar interest, the second one has its own category so they mostly ignore it, and the third is not an Oscar interest for which we are grateful because if you want the same things to win prizes every year, look to the Emmys!

So is there any kind of truth to the notion that Oscar doesn't like popular films and only embraces obscure ones? Let's look at the evidence from 1980 onwards...

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New Academy Rulings = Catastrophe

Oh dear.

Whatever goodwill Oscar has gained recently with their commendable efforts to diversify their membership appears to have not appeased their naked NEED to more popular with people who they'll never be popular with. Three new changes have been announced two of which are potentially catastrophic.

Let's take them in order of least to most upsetting.

The Oscars will be earlier after this year. 
The 2019 Oscars will be held on February 9th, 2020. The benefit of rushing the Oscars is that it also helps alleviate (in theory) the December glut as well as the ever-tacky "one week qualifier" release tactic that feel like cheating even though it's technically just fine with the rulebooks...

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What did you see this weekend?

by Nathaniel R

This weekend looked much the same as last weekend with Mission Impossible - Fallout still dominant and the same limited release hits going strong (Three Identical Strangers and Blindspotting and Eighth Grade... though the latter has now gone wide - yay!). Disney's Christopher Robin opened slightly below expectations but family friendly films sometimes have staying power and audiences reportedly like it... 

Weekend Box Office Estimates (August 3rd-5th)
W I D E 800+ screens	L I M I T E D excluding prev. wide
Mission: Impossible - Fallout	Three Identical Strangers
1. MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - FALLOUT  $35 (cum. $124.4) REVIEW	1. THREE IDENTICAL STRANGERS $1 on 405 screens (cum. $8.4) REVIEW
2.🔺 CHRISTOPHER ROBIN $25 *NEW* REVIEW	2. BLINDSPOTTING $660k on 523 screens (cum. $3.1)
3.🔺 THE SPY WHO DUMPED ME $12.3 *NEW*	3. 🔺 ALONG WITH THE GODS 2 $329k on 48 screens *NEW*
4. MAMMA MIA! HERE WE GO AGAIN $9 (cum. $91.3) REVIEW	4.  LEAVE NO TRACE $266k on 169 screens (cum. $5.1) TRAILER DISCUSSION
5. EQUALIZER 2 $8.8 (cum. $79.8)	5. 🔺 MCQUEEN $181k on 34 screens (cum. $491) REVIEW

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Box Office Possible - Fallout

by Nathaniel R

The Mission Impossible franchise (in movie form at least) is 22 years old and just won't quit (and neither will Tom Cruise) having its best opening weekend yet with film #6, Fallout. It's also Cruise's second biggest opening weekend ever after only War of the Worlds (2005). My personal favorite of the M:I franchise is Ghost Protocol from 2011. Yours? 

Weekend Box Office Estimates (July 27th-29th)
W I D E 800+ screens	L I M I T E D excluding prev. wide
Mission: Impossible - Fallout	Blindspotting
1.🔺 MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - FALLOUT  $61.5 *NEW* REVIEW	1. 🔺 BLINDSPOTTING $1.3 on 523 screens (cum. $1.7)
2. MAMMA MIA! HERE WE GO AGAIN $15 (cum. $70.4) REVIEW	2. 🔺 EIGHTH GRADE  $1.3 on 158 screens (cum. $2.9) CAPSULE REVIEW
3. THE EQUALIZER 2 $14 (cum. $64.2)	3.  🔺THREE IDENTICAL STRANGERS $1.2 on 433 screens (cum. $6.7) REVIEW
4. HOTEL TRANSYLVANIA 3 $12.3 (cum. $119.2)	4.  LEAVE NO TRACE $499k on 289 screens (cum. $4.6) TRAILER DISCUSSION
5. 🔺 TEEN TITANS GO! TO THE MOVIES $10.5 *NEW*	5. 🔺 DON'T WORRY HE WON'T GET FAR ON FOOT $351k on 266 screens (cum. $860k)

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