A Best Picture think... what if there were only five?

by Nathaniel R

 

Consensus is taking clear shape with film critics and awards bodies. They're finding Parasite the very best film of 2019 fairly regularly now. In terms of both critics and larger more 'industry' organizations Martin Scorsese's elegaic The Irishman is leading the English language films in nomination counts and prizes. Noah Baumbach's impressive superbly-acted dramedy Marriage Story and Tarantino's shape-shifting gorgeously executed 1969 homage Once Upon a Time in Hollywood are not far behind in the collective love sweepstakes. That could mean that any of those four will be vying for the Best Picture win at the Oscars in February. With the preferential ballot it helps to have passion votes and all of them have that. It also helps to be everyone's second or third favourite and each of those films could theoretically score high on virtually any voter's ballot.

But what's in fifth place?

Since 2011 rules have been in place to deliver between 5 to 10 Best Picture nominees depending on percentages of votes. To date, though, this system has only produced years with either 8 or 9 nominees for the top prize. But a though exercize today. Which of the remaining films would make it in a year with only 5 films in play...

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SAG Predictions from a SAG Nominating Committee Member!

[Secret Guest Post]

Awkwafina announcing the nominees last season. I think she'll be nominated this year.Hello again to readers of The Film Experience!  I previously shared a few reactions from our SAG nominating committee screenings including The Farewell and The Irishman and Bombshell and Little Women. The following are my predictions for tomorrow, NOT who I nominated (I nominated only 8 of these 30 predictions.)

LEAD ACTOR
Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Robert De Niro, The Irishman
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes

LEAD ACTRESS
Akwafina, The Farewell
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Lupita Nyong’o, Us
Renee Zellweger, Judy

I’m skeptical about Ronan, Theron and Woodard in Best Actress since their screeners came relatively late...

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Golden Globe Predictions - Let's do it!

It's that time of year. The Golden Globe nominations arrive on Monday morning so it's time to throw caution to the wind and try and predict the ever unpredictable HFPA whims. I'm opting for double nods for both Scarlett Johannson (duh) and Shia Labeouf (whaaa?)

PICTURE DRAMA	PICTURE COMEDY/ MUSICAL
• 1917 • Ford V Ferrari • The Irishman • Little Women • Marriage Story Potential Spoilers: Decided to predict Ford V Ferrari because the Globes usually surprise somewhere but in actuality The Two Popes or Joker OR BOTH are safer bets.	• Cats • Jojo Rabbit • Knives Out • Once Upon a Time in Hollywood • Rocketman Potential Spoilers: Booksmart, Dolemite is My Name, Hustlers

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Podcast: A Beautiful Day, Knives Out, Waves, Atlantics

with Murtada Elfadl & Nathaniel R 

Index (61 minutes)

• 00:01 Happy belated Thanksgiving
• 02:01 Marielle Heller and Tom Hanks offer catharsis with A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
• 14:30 Knives Out and that yummy cast: Chris Evans, Toni Collette, etc...
• 21:30 Film Bitch Awards / Jennifer Lopez in Hustlers tangent
• 23:00 Exciting new voice: Senegal's Mati Diop and Atlantics
• 29:20 Waves divides people, including Nathaniel and Murtada, and we also discuss the rush to judgment on first screenings among pundits
• 38:00 Spirit Nominations - What did we make of them?
• 48:20 Best Cinematography - Roger Deakins for 1917... but who else? 
• 59:00 Can you believe it's December already? 

Related Reading
Murtada's interview with Mati Diop
Monica Castillo's Knives Out essay

 You can listen to the podcast here at the bottom of the post or download from iTunes. Continue the conversations in the comments, won't you? 

A Beautiful Day for Podcasting

All Oscar Charts Updated

by Nathaniel R

Peggy (Anna Paquin) silently judging "The Irishman" as it moves up the charts

Every Oscar chart has been at least slightly revised with Joker, The Irishman, and The Two Popes on the rise while JoJo Rabbit and A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood take a few hits. For now we're only predicting two nominations for Richard Jewell though we do fear that it could grow larger still since critics and the Academy regularly lose their minds when confronted with the uneven acting and flat visuals of Clint Eastwood dramas. We'll never understand this annual glitch in the matrix.

Some risks we're taking at the moment: trying snubs for Frozen 2, Saoirse Ronan, Willem Dafoe, and Tom Hanks on for size to see how those particular charts feel without them as predicted nominees. 

Will they or won't they? It feels like Little Women and The Farewell are both on the bubble of a Best Picture nod. It would be fun to predict both but could they really overcome audience hit Ford V Ferrari and Eastwood bait Richard Jewell, simultaneously since both fit more neatly into the kind of stories (aka true and about men... sigh) that Oscar prefers?

UPDATED CHARTS 
INDEX | PICTURE | DIRECTOR
ACTRESS | ACTOR | SUPP' ACTRESS | SUPP' ACTOR | 
SCREENPLAYS | VISUAL | SOUND | 
ANIMATED & DOCUMENTARY | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE