Mark Your Calendars!

by Nathaniel R 

Given the release of Parasite this very weekend, and Judy, Pain and Glory, Hustlers, also in theaters with Oscar buzz in various categories, it's safe to say that Prestige Film Season is more than underway. So we thought we'd update that calendar now.  Here's how the schedule is looking for awards hopefuls in terms of important dates so mark your calendars...

OCTOBER

RIGHT NOW - Limited Release: Parasite (Bong Joon-ho's South Korean Oscar submission), The King (Shakepearian drama starring Timothée Chalamet), Missing Link (animated hopeful ) begins streaming on Hulu

NEXT WEEKEND - Limited Release: JoJo Rabbit (Taiki Waititi's Nazi satire), The Lighthouse (Dafoe's latest bid for gold, a black and white horror-tinged hallucinatory drama), The Laundromat begins streaming on Netflix

25th -Dolemite is My Name begins streaming on Netflix... 

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Best Actress Predictions - Is Saoirse In or Out?

by Nathaniel R

It’s strange to be entering an Oscar season where the Best Actor competition *might* be more thrilling than the Best Actress race. This never happens. At least not to us here at TFE where actresses are sacred and actors are, um, glorified seat-fillers...

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Kathy Bates going lead for Richard Jewell!

Shortly after updating the Best Supporting Actress chart and placing Kathy Bates in the mix for Richard Jewell, one of our SAG Nominating Committee friends sent us this image.  SURPRISE. Kathy Bates is campaigning as a lead at SAG.

Longtime awards obsessives will already know this but for newbies to the intricacies of awards season you should know that SAG voters do not have a choice where they place actors. They can only vote on them in the categories for which they've officially been submitted by the studios (same with Emmy voters). Occassionally SAG and Oscar campaign tactics are different, studios changed their mind, or errors are made by administrative types so people nominated in lead at SAG occassionally go on to win supporting acting Oscars (Benicio del Toro in Traffic / Jennifer Connelly in A Beautiful Mind) or go from being a supporting nominee at SAG to a leading player with Oscar (Keisha Castle-Hughes in Whale Rider / Kate Winslet in The Reader).

How will this all shake out?

Major shakeups in the Best Supporting Actress race

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There's a ton of movement on the new Best Supporting Actress Oscar prediction chart. Laura Dern and Jennifer Lopez might be all locked up but that's for nominations, the win is still very much anyone's game. Florence Pugh has been gaining momentum with Little Women more heavily screening now and the fact that she takes a well worn familiar character and suddenly makes her freshly fascinating. The Academy would never touch MidSommar but enthusiasm for her leading performance there in critical quarters doesn't exactly hurt her prestige factor since she's still a relative lesser known in Hollywood. Meanwhile in the Oscar darling realms of voting, early screenings of Richard Jewell in Los Angeles have prompted suspicion that Kathy Bates might finally be back in an Oscar lineup (it's been 17 years since her comic turn in About Schmidt brought her her third and to date final nod). Perhaps we shouldn't have plopped her right into the lineup so soon but if we have misjudged we'll adjust next week after screening the picture. 

Also rising in the charts this time: 75 year-old newbie Zhao Shuzhen (The Farewell), Oscar winner Octavia Spencer (Luce), and fresh revelation Taylor Russell (Waves) who all netted important Spirit nominations this week. 

Name 5 things you're currently obsessing over!

Apologies for the sparse posting the past couple of days we've been buried in screenings & events and the like. I'm currently obsessing about five things...

1) How wrong I was assuming the character of Amy could not be the MVP of any iteration of Little Women (hi, Florence!) so our SAG screening guest was correct. 

2) Potential trickery in the Original / Adapted screenplay placements with Ford v Ferrari attempting a Gangs of New York 'no, we're an original! a category in which they have virtually no chance of scoring... (so what is the campaign reasoning? Bizarre) and The Two Popes attempting a 'never mind that play the screenwriter wrote, we're an original)

3) TODD PHILLIPS DIRECTING STYLE ON JOKER WHICH IS THE MOVIE EQUIVALENT OF CAPS LOCK FOR AN ENTIRE DOCUMENT. 

4) How we're seeing Glenn Close on the campaign trail tonight stumping for Jonathan Pryce in The Two Popes and how lovely that is that she is undeterred by her own horrible recent loss and right back out there. 

5) We've updated Picture / Director / Screenplay / Actor and Supporting Actor Oscar charts but we know you're just waiting for the ladies and we'll do them tomorrow!