Oscar Predix: Best Actor and Leonardo DiCaprio
Sunday, April 3, 2011 at 12:02PM It's that foolish time of year - April Foolish to be precise. I try and suss out what's going to happen nearly a whole year from now without having seen any of the films. I am actually better than most at the year-in-advance thing... it's only later when my skills and prediction ratios put me a bit further back in the Best Prognosticators pack. Must be letting my familiarity with the films cloud the actual buzz! (They do always say that people who don't follow the race closely win Oscar pools just by casually parroting the buzz.)
The big year in advance question that people are already talking about of course is whether Leonardo DiCaprio can finally win for J. Edgar (if the film is released this year as I firmly expect it will be.)
Whether or not Leo is truly overdue is another matter. I was a very early disciple (1993, baby) but I have been losing interest over the years. I may be the only one who thinks that he's actually kind of bad in Inception. That performance just gets clunkier on repeated views, and he's not nearly as successful at making the exposition sound natural and conversational as the other actors are. But then again. That may just be the problem of "The Dead Wives Club," previously discussed. When actors get in role-ruts, it sometimes dulls the range of their imagination.
Still and all, biopics may suit him. (And they definitely suit Oscar.) He was very good in The Aviator (2004) but here's the other odd thing about his "overdue" status. It comes more from the fact that he's his generation's biggest star than from "should've won!" issues. I personally don't think he's ever come close to winning (which is usually when overdue status sets in). In 1993 the race was between Fiennes & Jones, in 2004 there was no race at all with Jamie Foxx sweeping in one of those Helen Mirren/Colin Firth style inevitabilities. 2006 was a "just happy to be nominated" situation and for the wrong film to boot.
Though he has to be considered a contender for a multiplicity of reasons, the year has barely begun. Other major stars that may have roles tailor-made for their persona or skill set include George Clooney, Brad Pitt, Matt Damon, Mel Gibson, Ryan Gosling and there's always the reliably strong actors like Gary Oldman, Ralph Fiennes, Woody Harrelson or the rising stars like Michael Fassbender who already seems to be staking claim on 2011 and His.
I have lots more to say about the actors but I'll save some of it for the supporting actor post.
What do you make of The Film Experience chart or Leo's "winning" chances?
Reader Comments (53)
Whether or not people think I'm-Not-Even-40-Yet Leo is overdue, I think that should Gary Oldman get a nomination, he won't lose. Leo won't be the critic's darling, and Oldman fits the bill not only as the type of actor that sweep with critics, but the type that everyone secretly knows is overdue FOR REAL.
I mean, who hasn't work with Oldman? It's like Michael Caine in 1999, everyone is going to vote for him because everyone has worked with him. Only snag...Oldman's got to deliver and the film will need a reasonable release. I really think this could be Gary's.
I have to disagree somewhat on your Leo assessment. The Dead Wives Club thing is funny, but his performances in the three were not particularly similar. His wife in RR doesn't even die till almost his last scene, so he can't really be described as mourning her for the film. I do agree that his Inception role is his least interesting of the three. Also while he might not be particularly "overdue", I think he's at least approaching it. With IMO nomination worthy performances in Grape, Aviator, Departed, RR, and Shutter Island. With really good performances in Basketball Diaries, Marvins Room, Catch Me If You Can, and Blood Diamond. Sure he might be overrated in the media, but let's not overcompensate by underrating him here.
Is Viggo supporting in A Dangerous Method? Was surprised not to see him in this list, but I don't know anything about the relative weight of the various parts. Sounded to me like a three-lead film, but I dunno.
I'm so baffled by DiCaprio, but I've probably nattered on about that enough in the past.
If Tree of Life and Moneyball are both well-reviewed and do well -- Brad Pitt is being setup in a good position to be honored. I mean, he certainly moved past the whole pretty boy thing years and years ago -- I could see it happening. Also, he's pretty well-liked, no? I don't know if people are still mad at him for the Jennifer Aniston thing.
Sad that you not included Depp in the list of actors that could rob the Oscar to DiCaprio (overdue too). Is interesting the fight of 3 megastars like DiCaprio-Pitt-Depp and then Gary Oldman.
Rum Diary comes October 28.
Also, no mention of Christoph for Carnage? On Broadway it was a four-lead play, and the Tonys reflected that. But I know that doesn't really fly with Oscar campaigns, so are you demoting Christoph to supporting? Why him and not Reilly if the parts are about equal size? Is it just guesswork at this point?
Nick, Viggo Mortensen is most definitely supporting to Michael Fassy and Keira K. Cronenberg talks about it in this interview: http://www2.macleans.ca/2010/08/25/david-cronenberg-on-freud-keira-and-pressing-the-flesh/
I think it's really funny because nearly EVERYONE I've talked to about Oscar predictions (Oscar Buzz on IMDB, Awards Daily Forums) including myself is predicting the quartet of DiCaprio, Fassbender, Oldman, and Gosling. :) :) Imagine what a sexy lineup that would be haha. My 5th spot goes to Michael Shannon (who you've forgotten about on your predix) - he got the most votes in a critics poll for best performance at Sundance (beating Elizabeth Olsen) and his film was well-reviewed. Next in line would be Johnny Depp - and he's in a curious situation because it he gets nominated he could very well win and be considered overdue like Leo.
-Brad Pitt will get more buzz for his supporting turn in Tree of Life
-Tom Hanks in supporting for Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (if it comes out this year)
-Who's leading and supporting between Waltz and Reilly?
-Could Joseph Gordon-Levitt get some buzz with 50/50?
-George Clooney will get his nomination in directing, I think.
I know that no one can touch Oldman when it comes to being overdue, but i think Leo, Depp, and Brad are all well on their way to getting there. I feel like the three of them are constantly underrated because of their celebrity status. Damon too, but to a lesser extent.
And of the Dead Wives Club trilogy, Inception is clearly the weakest by far IMO. But I thought he was phenomenal in RR, and pretty damn good in Shutter too.
I hate Oscars where they win for being "overdue," so I'm glad DiCaprio doesn't fit. I thought he was kind of a bad actor for years - pretty face, trying hard, not getting there. The Departed changed my mind. I think he has it in him to do something solid, and his name has been kicking around Hollywood long enough that if they love the movie, I say he's in. Plenty of people, like Winslet and Scorsese, will campaign like crazy for him. So yeah, I buy that he's a real threat.
I wonder about Pitt - he could play the overdue card. Looks like a comedy though. Not sure what to make of Damon's movie. Banderas would be a very interesting choice, though it's hard to win as a foreign language nominee here (plus how often do they have foreign language nominees two years in a row?). Fiennes could be nominated out of respect for helming his film, but much like Kidman's nod this year, that ain't winning. It's so ridiculous that Oldman has never even been nominated. Ugh. I doubt a thriller will get him there though.
My guesses:
Clooney
DiCaprio
Fassbender
Fiennes
McAvoy
If that's even close, DiCaprio has a great shot at the win. (BTW, anyone consider Plummer a threat? Or is he supporting?)
Ugh, I despise DiCaprio and hopes that he never wins anything unless he actually deserves it, but I doubt it. Though having been nominated three times already and an international star and all that, he's probably in for an inevitable "overdue!" oscar as you've said. It sooo frustrating. His lack of creativity, his strictly awards-pandering roles (seriously, when was the last time he actually took a "risky' project with a 'risky" director? He would never work with an up-and-coming auteur), the banality of each indistinguishable role after the next - I can only hope that the rest of AMPAS is as bored by him as I am. Unlikely, though.
Wow, we have the exact same five predictions for this category! I'm not sure if that's good or bad.
And while I know it's totally ridiculous to be calling winners right now, I feel exactly the same as Sam C. up above. Gary Oldman seems to have absolutely everything going for him with this role, as long as the movie turns out even OK.
I'll have to disagree with you on that one. I mean, although you're right about his performance being less-than-great in Inception, let's take a look at movies that should have won him an Oscar:
What's Eating Gilbert Grape: Possiby the greatest mentally retarded performance ever! Way better than Sean Penn in I Am Sam.
Gangs of New York: Leo was in the shadow of the great Daniel Day Lewis, which explains the lack of Oscar. But, I mean, he's brilliant in it. Just look at his face after he saves Daniel's life (during the Uncle Tom's Cabin play). Brilliant!
Catch Me If You Can: Yes, this one's a comedy, but he was still amazing in it. At the beginning he acts just like a 16-year-old, and throughout the rest of the movie he acts just like a teenager who's constantly afraid of beig caught. You can see the panic in his eyes, hiding behind the charming smile.
The Aviator: I think this was his tour de force (did I spell it right?). It's hard to describe! Just look at his body language and facial emotions, an you can see all the paranoia, the suffering, the obsessiveness. And you can also see the genius. And it's not easy to play a mad genius.
The Departed: An actor playing an actor is tough. But Billy Costigan is pretending the entire
film, and you can actually, once again, see the fear in his eyes.
Blood Diamond: He did the hardest accent to master PERFECTLY. That alone should have won him an Oscar.
Revolutionary Road: It's surprising, how well he did in this movie. I mean, it's easy for an actor to play strong, powerful characters. But to play a weak man, it's harder than most people think. Also, how did he get his face to look like that? He looks so different in that movie.
Shutter Island: Thrillers and good acting usually don't mix. That is, unless it's directed by Scorsese and starring DiCaprio. It must have been an extremely challenging role, because he's playing two roles at the same time. The first time you watch it, he's a hero. The second time you watch it (spoiler), he's a grieving madman. How does an actor play TWO roles at the same time and still not win an Oscar?
So, that's why I think it's about time he won an Oscar. I mean, jeez, I listed more than half his movies. Poor Leonardo, people see him as a superstar, not as the great actor he really is. Oh, and talk about Rodin Syndrome with the whole Titanic fame, right?
I like DiCaprio in general, but all of his recent roles hit the same note. If you're playing the super intense/haunted/brooding character too often it's gonna lose any impact. He should call Judd Apatow and request the lead role in his new stoner comedy, just for a change.
To Emily: Jumping high five. You said it all there.
Pitt, Damon, and DiCaprio are great actors, forget about their celebrity status. Damon and Pitt only has 2 acting noms so far (wtf), while Leo oh Leo never won before. If they could give an Oscar to a below average performance like Paltrow in Shakespeare In Love, then why can’t they take the time at night, sipping coffee, think clear of why Leonardo DiCaprio is Oscarless just like Julianne freaking Moore?
Don’t even mention Gosling, saying is name is giving me a vibration. Just like his quote in Half Nelson “One thing doesn’t make a man” meaning One Oscar nomination is less than what he deserves.
My prediction is they’ll mix young new actor with established ones with veteran (always), so Brad Pitt, Golsing, Dicaprio have a chance.
After Christian Bale, we’ll have Gary Oldman to appreciate the best actor never nominated for a single Oscar in his entire career.
Thanks, Danielle!
You're forgetting Michael Shannon for Take Shelter, THE male performance to come out of Sundance this year. The film and his and Chastain's performances in it will make waves, believe me. I expect it to become her only realized Oscar play as well out of her four high profile films (no actor from a Malick film has ever been nominated).
To everyone asking about CARNAGE -- yes, it's a four lead project. If it's anything like the play they're basically all four in every scene (except for bathroom and such breaks) but we all know that Oscar no longer plays it like that and one couple will demoted (think CLOSER -- another four character play turned movie.)
so i'm opting to consider Foster & Reilly as lead performers (it takes place in their home and they somewhat control the narrative) and Winslet & Waltz as supporting. Though they're all four of them leads.
I agree with Emily, and think that DiCaprio's overdue status comes not from the strenght of his performances (I'm not a big fan of him) but from the amount of roles that could've gotten him nominated. He' s been nominated 3 times, but we all know it could've been more than that:
-Titanic
-Catch me if you can
-Gangs of New York
-The Departed (supporting, as the SAG said)
-Revolutionary Road
He's arguably the biggest star of his generation and he's kind of peaking now. I mean, the latter half of the aughts were practically his. I can totally see him winning next year.
slayton -- damnit. you're right. ugh. no matter how many times i go over these lists, it's so easy to lose track of something when nothing has been released yet ;) so i added him in.
emily -- i appreciate your passion for him but there were SO many performances that were better than his in 2006 (though i think he's great in The Departed). but you left out one of his best performances: Romeo + Juliet. Do you like that one? To me his most boring performances (by far) are the ones in Gangs of New York and Inception.
jonny -- the weird thing about Brad & Johnny in terms of the underrated card is that both of them were WILDLY underappreciated when they were younger and suddenly when their performances are less interesting, they get nominated. Bizarre.
What film does Oldman have this year getting buzz? I did a quick search and found nothing that cried out for Oscar.
I'm rooting for Brad Pitt and under more ideal circumstances the Academy would've love to have given him the statuette in 2009 -- you know ideal being if Benjamin Button being awesome instead of long and just interesting for both lead actor and director. That baseball movie just screams to me Brockovich. I love how that's the new phrase for everyone's over due Oscar -- last time someone had a Brockovich nomination it was Sandra Bullock -- none of these people including Julia Roberts should be teaching acting classes but that goes to show you the power of movie stars -- that the Academy doesn't waste its powers on just character actors hogging all the glory.
The best nominated performance from Leo is Grape -- the only time he never felt like he was acting. He was that mentally handicap outcast.
The men of Carnage should just settle right now for supporting actor -- they're both previous nominees in the category -- they can become the male equalvalent to Dianne Wiest.
I totally understand what people are saying about Dicaprio, not taking risks. I've become bored with him as well. However, I did love him in Shutter's Island and like someone said before I'm not quite sure why RR is considered part of the Dead Wives Club.
Since I know the readers of this site and Nathaniel loves actresses, I hope a double standard don't come to play when we get to his friend Miss Winslet. I'm kind of sick of all these housewives roles she's playing and she needs to take a risk as well. Hopefully she will in Contagion, but from what I heard it's a cameo.
I also can see Michael Fassbender gaining more traction in Shame.
I would love to believe that all five of these awesome actors will share a category this year, but that seems like a pipe dream. Here's hoping.
Gary Oldman seems like a solid bet for the Oscar, though it has been difficult in recent years to win without a previous nomination. Only 3 out of 10 in the last ten years managed to pull it off, and few would argue any of those three were "overdue." Meanwhile, the likes of Frank Langella, Bill Murray, and Mickey Rourke couldn't pull it off on their first nominations.
For my money, Leo should have won for "What's Eating Gilbert Grape?" Tommy Lee Jones? Please. That alone makes him "overdue" in my book. The rest of his nominations I guess could go either way. He was solid to noteworthy in each of his nominations, but that was the one where I thought he approached greatness. But the Oscars' youth bias came into play, and voters opted for their career vote choice instead. If he's great in "J. Edgar," then more power to Leo. For symbolic reasons, I'd like to see him win for a Scorese picture, but it's about time for a Clint resurgence, and this film could be the one for him.
i think leo peaked a while ago. he'll probably grab a nomination but only because of the material and director.
Nathaniel, I just want to say that I love it when you photoshop. Nice seeing that Dead Wives poster again! It's always so much fun and makes me think that you're rich enough to have your own team of graphic designers...
I definitely think DiCaprio is overdue. He should have won for The Aviator. Without a doubt.
But will he win this year (ok, next year)? I don't know. It certainly looks good on paper but things don't always go as planned.
As to Nathaniel's chart, I would add Paul Giamatti for 'Win Win' and Christian Bale for '13 Flowers of Nanjing'. When you're a first time nominee, nominations often come in pairs, so I could see that happen for Bale (if the film comes out this year).
Oh, and maybe also add Jim Sturgess for 'One Day'. At this time anything goes, and I quite look forward to that one :)
There have already been screenings of One Day, I barely remember what was said about it though. All I remember is people saying Hathaway messed up the accent.
I'm another who's baffled by DiCaprio popularity. To me, he seems stodgy with the wrinkles of petulant resentment etched on his face. Not only has he not lived up to his early promise, he doesn't seem to have grown up into an adult, so he doesn't have much to draw on in his performances and seems to cannabalize his earlier technique (which I find kind of creepy).
So I either wish they'd give him an award so he'd go away, or just get forgotten as newer, hotter, better actors like Fassbinder light up the screen, and actors that have been around but keep getting better or more interesting, like Gosling, finally get their due.
It really doesn't matter our opinions. If world-renown Martin Scorsese thinks Leo's good, he's good. If beloved Robert De Niro thinks he's good, he's good. The question isn't "is he a good actor?", the question is, "if Sandra Bullock can win an Oscar, why the hell hasn't Leo??"
Rax, have you ever heard of James Dean?
I think being LEO is a double-edged sword. He's inarguably really talented. Has he given his best performance yet? I doubt it. Does that mean he never will? I doubt it. That aside, I think he's no critic's darling and that is against him. I don't quite understand it but then again maybe I do. He's better looking, MUCH wealthier, gets to bonk plenty of good looking girls (and maybe guys for all I know), and on top ot that, he's indisputably a star who's gotten to have both DeNiro and Scorsese as mentors. How many critics can we say the same about? I'm trying to count here but I don't seem to be having much luck. Anybody? Yes some folks are bored with him, but others, methinks, are a trifle resentful, too. Tough tatas. Taking just his truly adult performances, I think he was outstanding in Shutter Island (a film that will get it's due in time, I trust), really first rate in The Departed, rather remarkable in The Aviator (odd casting choice aside -- he had me convinced as the older Hughes rather than the younger one), excellent in Revolutionary Road (his last scenes with Winslet were biting and raw), somewhat disappointing in Gangs of New York (Day Lewis all the way), and Nathaniel, I don't agree about Inception at all. I thought he was excellent although, oddly enough, it took another viewing to convince me. All in all I don't think he's going down particularly and I hope to see him rise even higher in J. Edgar and smite all his sullen naysayers on the arse. But even if he doesn't and he doesn't ever win any oscars, he's absolutely going to be in wonderful company.
She's not close to the worst Oscar win. In fact she's very much middle of the road. Ask yourself how can you hate Sandra Bullock?
Zellweger, 03 (Patrica Clarkson, please!)
Connelly, 01
Benigni, 98
Williams, 97
Hunt, 97
Gooding Jr, 96
Great list, Nathaniel. Even though it's only April, I bet your predictions will be highly accurate.
In the long shot category, I'd like to add Eddie Redmayne in "My Week With Marilyn" as someone who gets a lot of good buzz, but doesn't make the final cut. Every time I see him, I want to see more. I read that he's playing the title role of Richard II in London, so he can carry a long Shakespearean role, and he seems to have been racking up awards (a Tony this year for "Red"). Maybe when people see him in a larger screen role, they'll think, new, hot, and really good.
oh dear, dicaprio fangirls coming out of the woodwork
I agree with the Winslet assessment above. I love her but she really is beginning to look the same in her roles. I just know that now in her films there will be one or two nude/sex scenes and lots of facial scrunching and frowning and sad looks, a little crying and maybe a few angry notes. The movie I thought she was at her absolute best was Sunshine.......Eternal Mind. I hope she will prove me wrong in her next outings, but I think she's becoming a bit overrated personally. She needs to go somewhere really different for a change.
I don't know if he's due, but Leo's performances in Blood Diamond and Gilbert Grape were both award worthy. I would have given him the Oscar for either.
I think Winslet's role in Carnage will help change her image somewhat. After that she needs to do a musical.
Uh, Gabriel Oak, she HAS been in a musical. It's called Romance and Cigarettes.
In such a competitive year with preferential voting can someone come out of nowhere and get a surprise? I know Foreign Acting Nominations and Wins are rare but what about Denis Podalydes in "The Conquest" a film about Nicholas Sarkozy's rise to power in France.
http://collider.com/la-conquete-trailer-nicolas-sarkozy-biopic/83900/
Count me in as another Leo "fangirl" coming out of the woodwork for this thread.... I'm excited to see how many people are weighing in on his career. Like him or not, he has been with us for so long, in so many different guises (prodigy, box office titan, Scorcese's muse, eco-activist, Kate W's bestie), that he generates heated conversation. What other actor of his generation has that status?
For me, Leo's performance in "The Departed" was one of the greatest of the last decade by any actor -- I'm eternally baffled that his nomination came for another film that year. The win should have been his.
The Dead Wives Club. Funny stuff! And totally true. He has been in a rut of sorts lately. I wouldn't have picked him to win any of his three nominations, but I totally think he can win the Oscar one of these days. It seems to take so little for the guys once the overdue police start to kick in. It's the ladies that have to wait and wait and wait once they reach that certain age. Glenn Close is overdue. Sigourney Weaver is overdue. Julianne Moore is overdue. Not Leonardo DiCaprio.
I second the Winslet in a musical statement. That would be a nice change of pace for her, no? I've kind of always wanted her to play Dot in Sunday in the Park with George. Now if only we could find a George...
And I always assumed that one of the two couples in Carnage would get demoted, but (having not seen the play) I just wondered why you had chosen Reilly. Now I know:)
@Melissa: I'm over the moon for Winslet, but I'd be the first to admit that she definitely has been typecast (perhaps even by herself?) Now that she's won her overdue Oscar, I would love to see her map out a crazy-ass (in a good way) career path similar to Nicole Kidman's mid-'00s run.
I could see her doing some out-there auteur stuff, or even Burn After Reading style comedy. I think she's capable of much more than she's allowed to do (although again, it's entirely likely that her rut has been self-imposed).
Contagion is definitely a good start, and I'm excited for the comedic possibilities that Carnage will offer.
I'm sorry to plug this film three comments in a row, but as far as Best Actor predictions go... Michael Sheen's role in Beautiful Boy is meatier than prime rib.
Okay. Now that that's out of the way.
While most (if not all) of his upcoming film roles are supporting, Bryan Cranston is definitely an actor to watch. His insanely brilliant work on Breaking Bad has won him three consecutive - and well-deserved - Emmys now. IMDb lists at least half a dozen movies Cranston will appear in between 2011 and 2012. Larry Crowne may be too light, but there's always 1981's Arthur... Regardless, keep an eye and an ear open for this guy. He's got talent.
how likely is it that "carnage" will be coming out in 2011? polanski is nowhere near as fast in finishing his movies as eastwood - and i already hear rumors that he's planning a world premiere at the 2012 berlin film festival. but i suppose an us-distributor with a big oscar-campaign could change that quickly...
as for depp: the buzz on "rum diary" has been pretty bad recently, hasn't it?
having seen "coriolanus", the only oscar chances i see there are for vanessa redgrave.
and "on the road" will possibly be moved to 2012. at least that's what alice braga told me last month in an interview...
I don't understand how DiCaprio's biggest star status makes him "overdue", I mean, there're a handful of stars just as big as DiCaprio yet he's considered overdue but not them, and may I add, he's certainly the youngest of them all.
Fact is, while I don't think he's overdue, I can see why some people think otherwise, it's because he's the most consistant leading man and has been nominated 3 times, you don't need to come close to winning with either nomination, when you accumulate enough nominations people will automatically think you're due, ask Winslet, she didn't come close to a winning before she actually won in 2009, but people were just screaming OMFG why hasn't she won lalala...... Three nominations are not the same story with five, but being an actor is not the same story with being an actress, we all know actor race is always much more competitive than actress'.
I absolutely agree that there are many actors the Academy needs to honor before DiCaprio, if DiCaprio's superstar status helped him in anyway playing the overdue card, it's that his situation is much more visible and talked about than those who are not as famous and successful.
Our top five are pretty similar Nathaniel. I've got DiCaprio, Gosling, and Oldman as well, in which case I do think Oldman is finally going to get his. In place of Fassbender I have Viggo from the same movie. I have them both being nominated, so category placement isn't too big of a deal there. And then I also have Pitt with Moneyball. I keep saying that I think Moneyball is going to be this year's Social Network, but we'll see.