148 Days Til Oscar Nominations!
Sunday, August 19, 2012 at 8:00PM 
Do you ever marvel at the countdown clock in the lefthand sidebar and think "Wow, only ___ days until Oscar nominations!". I know I do. As of right now there are only 148 days and some hours left until Oscar nominations. 21 weeks! That means the universe has plenty of time to back me up on my current predictions or destroy them savagely. Either way is fun for me which is, I suppose, why I've never been able to quit predicting Hollywood's High Holy Night.
CHART UPDATES
Best Picture & Best Director - The Great Gatsby and Baz Luhrmann exit the charts, both moving to summer 2013. And though I never had faith in Gatsby as an actual finalist (the book is too perfect as a book) what can rush in to replace it on the charts? The race is still wide open as it should be.
Gatsby will sit this particular party out. He'll throw his own next Summer
But from where I sit though I'm sure some will disagree, the franchise hopefuls are toast. A lot of people still think that The Gidling of the Lord of the Rings Lily: Part 1 of 3 will factor in but Oscar is not Emmy and LotR is not The West Wing. Fantasy is still a novelty for Oscar voters and I can't imagine that handing the last one 11 Oscars won't feel like enough of a reward for Jackson & Middle Earth. Yes, they've had a decade long breather but I figure the only way The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey is competing for the top prize is if people go crazier for it than the original trilogy. And that would be an unexpected journey.
Meanwhile I suspect that The Avengers and The Dark Knight Concludes Divisively will have a rough time making it through the wild rapids of winter campaigning and I don't expect either of them in the big show beyond a few craft nods. I don't even have faith in the eagerly awaited Django Unchained as an Oscar hopeful. Quentin Tarantino, when he leans toward retro remixes of less prestigious film genres, is just not necessarily for them (see: Jackie Brown, Kill Bill). Yes, he leans towards that.. always... and he has made two big Oscar hits. But Pulp Fiction was the kind of pop-cultural zeitgeist breakthrough that's impossible to ignore and Inglourious Basterds was a WW II fantasy and Oscar does his own share of fantasizing about that.
All of this nitpicking doubt leads me to believe that Beasts of the Southern Wild, a movie that doesn't look much like an Oscar film (yay!), is on its way to locked up status as an Oscar film. While it didn't become the crossover hit we'd hoped it would, it's done well enough financially to ride the "beloved indie / critical darling" into the mainstream competition for gold. (Think Winter's Bone.)
Best Actor - It's been 11 years since Denzel Washington won his second Oscar and in that whole time he hasn't done anything worth Oscar's time. Will they welcome him back if Flight is a big hit?
What's Denzel's poison? And was he drinking it before the Flight?
The way I see it mainstream dramas that become big hits are shoo in for Oscar play. Oscar likes drama best and when films without genre trappings that are intended for adults soar at the box office, they join in the applause. I'm feeling it'll hit. Just a feeling.
But the big question in Best Actor is whether the Weinstein's will try to convince AMPAS voters that Joaquin Phoenix is "supporting" Phillip Seymour Hoffman (or the other way around) in The Master. If they risk a double lead campaign and the film is the critical mega-success the internet seems to be expecting, could they be the first Actor Pair since *gulp* Amadeus (twenty-eight years ago) to hog 40% of the shortlist? It's hilarious (and depressing) to view Amadeus in retrospect and know that campaign teams would try to pretend that Salieri or Mozart were "supporting" players in their own riveting brutal musical duet.
Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress -- We discussed these last week here.
Best Supporting Actor - This category hasn't come into focus yet which should make the fall extra exciting. So for the moment, you can predict just about anything (at least here) and feel like a true psychic. You can feel like a psychic right up until the moment the films open and prove you wrong! But the foggy nature of the Supporting goods me wonder if I'm not underestimating those that have already arrived and delighted (like Matthew McConaughey and Michael Fassbender) despite the lowbrow nature of their roles... at least accordingi to Oscar's general aesthetics.
Ruth E Carter, two time Oscar nominees, doing retro-chic looks for Sparkle
Best Visuals and Best Aurals - UPDATES STILL IN PROGRESS -- THIS TAKES TIME.
The latest film to enter the ring visually and aurally is the Motown musical Sparkle (my review tomorrow) and while I don't expect Oscar play anywhere stranger things have happened in the below the line categories.
Screenplay, Animated, Foreign Film and the Complete Prediction Chart. Check them out and report back.
Reader Comments (53)
Seems insane that we don't already have a shoo-in for Best Supporting Actor this year considering recent history. I wonder about Leo DiCaprio in Django and Bill Murray in Hyde Park. I know you have Murray listed as lead, but I wonder how much of the movie is on Linney's shoulders/if the studio can get away with him campaigning in supporting.
If I had to place money on any movie getting a Best Picture nod, it would be Argo. It seems to check off a ton of Academy boxes (political, period piece, movie about movies, lots of recognizable faces, etc.), and the subject matter is still relevant today. Plus, the Academy loves a good actor-turned-director.
And I saw ParaNorman yesterday, and I thought it was terrific, the best animated movie I've seen so far this year. Box office is disappointing, so I'm hoping it can go all the way. Frankenweenie seems primed to steal its thunder, though.
Just going by the trailer and how much fun it looks, I think Wreck-It Ralph has a better chance than both The Lorax and Frankenweenie. Then again, video games are not really Academy material (or mine, for that matter) so it could underwhelm.
Hate to nitpick - wasn't Cheadle nominated for Hotel Rwanda?
On Les Miz: I don't know about Les Miserables commercial viability. Disregarding its status as a massively successful musical, you still have to consider that the last full-blown tragedy released around Christmas time, 2008's Seven Pounds, was a commercial flop. Even if Seven Pounds was also critically panned, it starred Will "7 Number One Openings in a Row" Smith, so I'd be more cautious on Les Miz's commercial and Oscar viability fronts. Right now, I'll concede Hathaway has almost certainly won supporting actress and the inevitable costume design nom will happen but that's all I'll concede until the box office results are released.
On Life of Pi: I saw the trailer. Unless they're isolated incidents or minor visual moments in the grand scheme, I noticed some incredibly fake looking CGI there and, unless people remember the ten years old fervor for the book, I don't quite see the necessary commercial success happening.
On Lincoln: It's mid-August and we don't have a trailer yet. I think people should be VERY nervous about that and I'm guessing it might be this year's answer to J Edgar.
On Beasts of the Southern Wild: Already released, strong reception, unique trail blazing indie concept, will get #1 votes. It's in, even if it's just a Winter's Bone slot.
On Anna Karenina: I don't know if Joe Wright has the right career momentum for a second Best Pic nom at the moment. This could bolster him TO a second, but not just yet. Not coming off Hanna and The Soloist.
On The Master: As of right now, I'd bet this as THE WINNER. It's kind of riding a wave of zeitgeist with the Tom Cruise divorce, plus the PT Anderson career momentum.
On Zero Dark Thirty: If the movie is willing to criticize Obama for his actions a little, with the result being that Bin Laden didn't get a fair trial, I could see it. If the movie thinks Obama did something unquestionably right, which the trailer might be implying, I don't see it.
On Argo: This is really Zero Dark Thirty's direct competitor, and it's a movie about an actual unquestionable success story. I could actually see it, no question.
On Hyde Park on Hudson: I see this. They were actually confident enough to release the trailer at a sane point and Bill Murray is someone very respected by the populous, especially after the turn to indie roles. There's public pressure.
On Flight: Denzel has never stopped being a star. Robert Zemeckis has made live-action movies under the guise of being animated, so I don't think he'll be too rusty at the art. Plus, true life inspirational. This is in.
On Silver Linings Playbook: I don't know. I think The Fighter got in Best Picture because of it's leads more than it's director.
On The Hobbit Part 1 of 3: NO!!! NO!!! NO!!! It was an unlikely enough choice as a two part film. Now that it's officially three, I hope this never even touches a single nomination!
On the vote splitting between The Dark Knight Rises and The Avengers: No question The Dark Knight Rises is getting #1 votes while The Avengers just isn't (Academy and all that jazz.) Enough to get in their Top 6-10? I don't know.
My prediction is seven nominees:
The Master
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Flight
Hyde Park on Hudson
Flight
(Wild Card) ParaNorman (I just saw it and...WOW! It's WINNING Animated Feature at the very least.)
(Wild Card) Seven Psychopaths
Can you change my first comment so one of the Flight citations is Argo instead? Thank you and please delete this comment once you're done that.
i pointed this out last time - three men have won (best actor) for a musical - cagney, brynner & harrison
Liz N.: I wouldn't worry too much right now. ParaNorman's the kind of thing (animated film that's pitched squarely at teens, kind of like Coraline) that needs (and will hopefully get) positive word of mouth. Plus, the not particularly star studded cast would keep costs down so it doesn't need Pixar numbers to be viewed as successful. My guess is the budget was around $45-50 million.
Liz N.: And as for Frankenweenie stealing it's thunder? With the right critical reception, maybe. However, I don't trust Burton to GET the right critical reception these days and it might come across as exactly what it is...an overstretched short-film.
Interesting predictions. My thoughts:
-I don't know if Washington could win a third Oscar yet, but if I need to choose who's actor has real chances for winning a third Oscar between Day-Lewis and Washington, I give Washington the edge. Not only he's still one of the most powerful stars in Hollywood, he's a beloved actor -Also Tony Award winner- with a lot of friends and fans within the AMPAS. And even if Day-Lewis is playing one of the most iconic figures by American history, Washington has a perfect "Oscarable" role: antihero, drug addict, self destruction, and even the new tweets are saying this is Washington's "Leaving Las Vegas". Also, after winning TWBB, Day-Lewis' has a big standard to surpass and with a recently second Oscar, he could have other obstacles. And last but not least, Washington was never a filler nominee for his other five nominations. He was always by contention for the win, especially in 1992 and 1999 races.
-Supporting Actor. Maybe it just me, but I found this category weak of bigger contenders. A lot of ensemble cast, but only few real contenders. And now, with the re-shoots for Tarantino's Django Unchained, it gives me doubts for DiCaprio's potential victory. Maybe this is better for McConaughey's possibilities for Magic Mike.
Foreign Language FIlm: This is a guess and Morocco and Cambodia confirms their films:
MOROCCO: Death for Sale
CAMBODIA: Lost Loves
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_submissions_to_the_85th_Academy_Awards_for_Best_Foreign_Language_Film
*ARGENTINA: Everybody has a Plan - Premiere at TIFF, this film is starring Viggo Mortensen as twins
*BRAZIL: Xingu - Hamburger was in the shortlist at 2007. If not, maybe "Heleno" could surprise
*CANADA: Midnight's Children - Deepa Metha's next film since Water. Premiere at TIFF
*CHILE: No - Starring Gael Garcia Bernal. Even SPC could make a run release in USA this season
*DENMARK: A Royal Affair - The shortlist include Bille August's Marie Krøyer, Susanne Bier's Love Is All You Need
*FRANCE: Amour - I know, but the french want to win and the film is a french majority production. If not, Rust and Bone
*KOREA: My Way - Maybe one of the biggest korean productions and historical epic
*NETHERLANDS: Süskind - WWII film
*PHILIPPINES: Captive - After the release of the shortlist, maybe they choose the most famous film
*POLAND: Roza - WWII film, even beating "In Darkness" at Polish Oscars.
*TURKEY: My Grandfather's People - Feel good movie
Michael Haneke for "Amour" in Best Director and Best Original Screenplay, no?
I hate hate hate that the trailer for FLIGHT tells us absolutely everything about the movie. Stupid studio marketing.
I was at the Chicago screening of "The Master" this week, and I feel like it's going to be VERY divisive. I really didn't care for it and found Phoenix in particular to be a major irritant, but don't feel confident in predicting critical consensus here at all. Phoenix's character is written to be unlikeable and he performs it a particularly mannered, abrasive way (from the "mumbling = method" school, I guess), but I can see people arguing that he's actually successful at some very specific choices. And I think similar debates will circle the movie itself - people frustrated with how opaque it is and others arguing that's actually the point.
So I'm not sure how much it will factor into awards season, but I do expect some detractors and would also say that its niche/inaccessible nature might work against it as well.
For my August predix:
PICTURE:
1. Argo
2. Beasts of the Southern Wild
3. Flight
4. Les Miz
5. The Master
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6. Hyde Park on Hudson
7. Zero Dark Thirty
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8. Amour
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-Anna Karenina
-The Dark Knight Rises
-Life of Pi
-Lincoln
-To the Wonder
I predicted 8. I'm confident in my top 5, even if Les Miz is a failure, could be another EL&IC -Prestige film released at December-. Even if I'm not confident for Murray's prospects, HPOH could be an actor's film and help in Linney's prospects. For ZDT, maybe they do a political decision on this, especially for the elections and received Bigelow's again to Oscars. Amour is my dark horse. We need to her more of To the Wonder.
DIRECTOR:
1. Ben Affleck, Argo
2. Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master
3. Michael Haneke, Amour
4. Tom Hooper, Les Miz
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5. Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
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-Ang Lee, Life of Pi
-Joe Wright, Anna Karenina
-Robet Zemeckis, Flight
The top 4 is very likely. Bigelow is my wild card
ACTOR:
1. Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
2. Hugh Jackman, Les Miz
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3. Denzel Washington, Flight
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4. Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
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5. Ryan Gosling, The Place Beyond the Pines
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-Ben Affleck, Argo
-John Hawkes, The Sessions
-Ewan McGregor, The Impossible
-Bill Murray, Hyde Park on Hudson
-Brad Pitt, Killing Them Softly
I still think the Oscar will be between Jackman-Phoenix. Washington is taking the third place and I explained before for DDL. Gosling is my wild card, especially after hearing excellent response of him and DeHaan by tweets. He deserves a second nomination. For my next five, Hawkes is waiting his place, but maybe we understimate "The Impossible" and McGregor will be in contention.
ACTRESS:
1. Laura Linney, Hyde Park on Hudson
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2. Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
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3. Maggie Smith, Quartet
4. Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
5. Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Lining Playbook
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++++Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty++++++
-Penélope Cruz, Twice Born
-Keira Knightley, Anna Karenina
-Rachel McAdams, To the Wonder
-Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
-Naomi Watts, The Impossible
Chastain is a question mark. If she's confirmed as a lead, she ever could win. Now, this year is instriguing because it could have a lot of possibilities but there's not a clear "winning" option. I put Linney at no. 1 for her overdue status, the love and respect by AMPAS and playing a real life character. Wallis could be a critics darling and with Oprah support she could make. The next three contenders have "if" questions -Especially in Lawrence case-, but they could make it. I don't have faith in Knightley yet. AK could be a big mess or even being rejected by critics and british voters. Watch out Watts and McAdams.
SUPPORTING ACTOR:
1. Bryan Cranston, Argo
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2. Russell Crowe, Les Miz
3. Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
4. Matthew McConaughey, Magic Mike
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5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
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-Dane DeHaan, The Place Beyond the Pines
-Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Lincoln
-Woody Harrelson, Seven Psychopaths
-Jude Law, Anna Karenina
-David Strathairn, Lincoln
Right now, I have no idea. I put Cranston in first place. The last reports said he's the standout and maybe he's making a Hunt's movement. Also, he's the favorite supporting player right now with John Carter, Rock of Ages, Total Recall and Argo. Crowe and Hoffman -Even if he's co-lead- are likely nominees but I don't think they have a lot for winning. As DiCaprio, at the beginning of the year I thought he could easily win, but with recent reports of the production -Reshoots, actors dropping out and problems between crew- maybe it would be difficult and DiCaprio isn't exactly beloved by AMPAS. Waiting for a place DeHaan has buzz, Gordon-Levitt has the year -Alongside McConaughey-, Harrelson and Strathairn have the name and Law the comeback factor
SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
1. Anne Hathaway, Les Miz
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2. Amy Adams, The Master
3. Olivia Williams, Hyde Park on Hudson
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4. Samantha Barks, Les Miz
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5. Sally Field, Lincoln
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-Annette Bening, Imogene
-Helen Hunt, The Sessions
-Olga Kurylenko, To the Wonder
-Kelly Macdonald, Anna Karenina
-Kelly Reilly, Flight
Maybe it sounds an stretch, but Hathaway is more likely. Adams and Williams are next in line. Barks is likely to be the "revelation" of the season and the double BP nominees in this category. Field is a wild card, she has the "Oscarable" role but she was in this situation before and was shut out. The next five contenders are waiting for a place. Watch out Kelly Reilly because she could make it in "Flight" wave
I would be happy with "Sparkle" getting a costume nom, even if those dresses frequently strained credibility. Who exactly was supposed to be televising them showing that much skin, and how did their mom not notice the trail of sequins they probably left from their closet to the front door?
Confession: I LOVE the nominations countdown clock and my eyes are frequently drawn to it when I peruse the blog.
Finally saw MAGIC MIKE over the weekend and think McConaughey could get a Globe nod. Sadly, I don't think the SAG/Oscar voters will take the movie as seriously as they should.
Of the 15 or so features Soderbergh has directed since TRAFFIC and ERIN BROCKOVICH in 2000, only THE GOOD GERMAN received an Oscar nod (for Score).
I think that between the two "obvious choices" Lincoln is a much safer bet than Les Miserables. Frankly, I think people in New York greatly over-estimate how much the rest of the country cares about Broadway Musical. Almost every year Hollywood comes out with a musical (Nine, Sweeney Todd, Rent, The Producers, Dreamgirls) and every one of them is met with box office indifference and minimal Oscar interest. The one and only time they ever did bite was Chicago, and in retrospect that seems to have been nothing more than Harvey Weinstein doing his thing. Pretty much the only films based on Broadway productions that get any kind of success are the lighthearted ones like Hairspray and Mamma Mia which are far from being respectable Oscar movies.
Their support of Spielberg's "serious" work, on the other hand, is amazingly consistent.
I like your inclusion of Christopher Walken in the supporting category for Seven Psychopaths. He's definitely the best part of the trailer, and though I hadn't much interest in this film, now I want to see it to see the rest of his performance.
It's hard predicting without seeing the films, but I'd think Zero Dark Thirty would have at least a couple of possibilities for supporting actor, Mark Strong, Kyle Chandler, etc. I also wonder whether Moonrise Kingdom might provide a surprising acting nom, as a professional recognition for Bruce Willis or Bill Murray.
In the Original Screenplay, Zoe Kazan for Ruby Sparks should be somewhere on the list. I think she could be a dark horse for Best Actress also. Doesn't Screenplay sometimes work as a consolation prize for actors and directors?
So far, the Best Actress section is the dullest, but I guess it's predicting, not dreaming. I'd have Naomi Watts, Rachel Weisz, Melanie Lynskey, Zoe Kazan, and yes, Amy Adams. And if Viola Davis' part is a lead, I'd like to see her nominated again. They could nominate her every year, she always does such stellar work.
casey -- no problem. it's just a typo. UGH. some days i wonder why i do this at all. I hate making dumb mistakes.
mjs -- i'm not sure where this myth comes that musicals are always met with indifference. Evita was a hit, Moulin Rouge was a hit, Dreamgirls was a big hit. Agreed that musicals aren't even a tenth as popular as they were until from 1930-1972 but it's not like they're never successful ;)
"i'm not sure where this myth comes that musicals are always met with indifference. Evita was a hit, Moulin Rouge was a hit, Dreamgirls was a big hit. Agreed that musicals aren't even a tenth as popular as they were until from 1930-1972 but it's not like they're never successful ;)"
You're right that musicals occasionally do manage to hit, but that's still something like four movies over the course of sixteen years. Also Moulin Rouge is pretty far from the kind of traditional musical I'm thinking of. Also, two of those three tellingly failed to receive BP nods.
It just sort of baffles me that every single year one of the mini-majors seems to spend ungodly amounts of money putting together a big budget prestige Broadway adaptation under some kind of mistaken belief that they have the same kind of Oscar appeal as, say, a World War II movie or something.
MJS, maybe you disagree with in this point, but for the list you keep, I can only call big failures are Rent and The Producers. Even "Nine", with the dismal reviews and box office dud, could keep the flame until four Oscar nominations -Including one in acting category-. Sweeney Todd was terribly campaigned and delay for the season and even with that it got three nominations including one for leading actor. Maybe domestically wasn't a success but internationally got a better response. I understand the doubts of "Les Miz", but I don't think this isn't another "Nine" coming. The resources were respectful to the original novel, it is more a dramatic story with historical background -AMPAS loves that- and behind the film we have Tim Bevan and Eric Fellner -Succesful producers who know how to play the game of the Oscars-.
Other point to considerate, maybe Les Misérables is one of the most recognizable musicals not only in USA, but also WORLDWIDE. When they make the 25th. Anniversary Concert they excede expectations. Even average people have heard "I dreamed a dream" -Especially after the Internet phenomenon that was Susan Boyle-. I don't say it would be a blockbuster hit, but
I don't think it will fail as "Nine". I believe Les Miz is a different beast in the world of musicals.
Their support of Spielberg's "serious" work, on the other hand, is amazingly consistent
Defying consistent... Even with that, Spielberg wasn't exactly too consistent as many people think. By your standard, he underperformed in "Catch me if you can", "War Horse" and "Amistad" and even failed to got a response for "A.I." -Sci fi elements but again a dramatic core in the history-. The only surprising response was in "Munich".
"Her death scene in TDKR is winning unintentional laughs" that made me laugh out loud :D
I think John Goodman might finally get in this year but for Argo instead of Flight. The latter feels like a big showcase for Denzel Washington, while the former feels like an ensemble piece that the Academy might recognize in acting by simultaneously giving Goodman his first nomination. I'm not entirely convinced that Seven Psychopaths is happening, though it's definitely possible
if Django unchained doesnt get oscar,then oscars is a big Hypocrite
"Defying consistent... Even with that, Spielberg wasn't exactly too consistent as many people think. By your standard, he underperformed in "Catch me if you can", "War Horse" and "Amistad" and even failed to got a response for "A.I." -Sci fi elements but again a dramatic core in the history-. The only surprising response was in "Munich"."
CMIYC was a comedy and AI/Minority Report were Sci-Fi, which is not what the Academy considers "serious." Going back to '93 (when he finally broke through with the Academy) He's made five period dramas and earned BP nominations for four of them. Munich (a film I personally loved) managed to get a nomination even though it got an Icy reception (for some reason) by the wider public, and War Horse managed to get a BP nomination en though it was terrible. The only anomaly was Amistad, which came out 20 days after Titanic and got lost in that film's hype.
How sad is it that we haven't seen a single Best Actor possibility, unless you count Tommy Lee? And what about Joseph Gordon-Levitt for Best Actor? Lots of people have Looper on their radar, but I've yet to see any mention of him in the Actor race.
les grossman--How can you know that Django is deserving of Oscars? You haven't seen it yet! And what hypocrisy?
Evan--Technically, lots of people have seen John Hawkes, just not the public at large. But at least his buzz is based on the performance itself, as opposed to the rest of the Best Actor field.\
Jordan--It's What Lies Beneath all over again, with the spoileriffic trailer. The studios must think that Robert Zemeckis films are hard sells or something. I'm hoping there's more to the story in Flight that the trailer has managed not to give away.
You really don't think Cloud Atlas will be nominated for a single Oscar? Not even Best Makeup?
I have a feeling that somebody will get a supporting nod for Argo. Affleck's only directed two other movies, but both times someone in the cast was nominated for acting.
Frankly the one nomination that sounds most interesting to me is Joaquin Phoenix as Freddie Sutton in Paul Thomas Anderson's the Master. Somewhat for the buzz of this being the director's first picture since "There will be Blodd" Its Phoenix's first nomination since "Walk the Line" as best actor. The question too whether he'd nominated for best actor or best supporting actor. From what I read on IMDB the story focuses on his character. Of course Phillip Seymour Hoffman won that one for "Capote" Its interesting to me they are now together in the PTA film. Well that's show biz. I find it somewhat quirky choice since Phoenix in the first few years of his life was in a cult* Plus in 2005 he was in rehab for alcoholism. I realize he's acting a role. I hope to coin a phrase he becomes a bride instead of bridemaid. Next most interesting is Leonard DiCaprio for F. Scott Fitzgerald's director Baz Luhrmans "Great Gatsby" I loved "Strictly Ballman and Moulin Rouge. Though I thought the latter somewhat too kinetic. I am interested in DiCaprio because if memory serves me he never won an Oscar either. Both Phoenix and DiCaprio are fine actors deserving of this honor.
I don't know how I feel about flight. It's just looks so... lame.
But speaking of Best Actor, what is going on with Barrymore in the US? Christopher Plummer gives the performance of his career. If he hadn't won last year, he might have a shot.
Oh, and speaking of Canadian content, I don't think Midnight's Children is a contender. (It seems to be in English.) I looked at a few possibilities here, though: http://www.cinemablographer.com/2012/08/which-film-will-be-canadas-oscar-pick.html
Director:
1. PT Anderson (Even if the film is a bit divisive, he has the career momentum.)
2. Ben Affleck (He has the heat and it's his time for a nomination)
3. Robert Zemeckis (It'll check their boxes and it's time for him to produce something good again.)
4. Martin McDonagh (I know no one's placing bets on Seven Psychopaths to get to Best Pic, but I think it could be a big surprise.)
5. Benh Zeitlin/Roger Michell (One is a new indie auteur and the other is the director who captured Daniel Craig's best performance.)
Actor:
1. Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
2. Denzel Washington, Flight
3. Bill Murray, Hyde Park on Hudson (if he starts campaigning, expect the win)
4. Ben Affleck, Argo (As The Town proved, he directs himself surprisingly well. If this is meatier material, he could really wow.)
5. PSH, The Master/John Hawkes, The Sessions (This will be down to the wire, but I lean slightly on John Hawkes pulling it out.)
Actress:
1. Laura Linney, Hyde Park on Hudson
2. Barbra Streisand, The Guilt Trip (Something's Gotta Give style love in and high probability of chemistry with the unusually charismatic Rogen will help.)
3. Meryl Streep, Hope Springs (This is blossoming into a small hit for what it is. I'd say she's in right now in what currently seems like a weak year.)
4. Kristen Wiig, Imogene (Leftover Bridesmaids heat from last year plus high potential for drawing box office attention.)
5. Maggie Smith, Quartet/Marion Cotillard, Rust & Bone (Only one of these gets in, and, somehow, I'm leaning on Cotillard.)
Supporting Actor:
1. Christopher Walken, Seven Psychopaths (this could be the start of a late career return to meaty roles (his last really substantive role being the Burroughs quoting vampire in 1995's The Addiction), so I could see this.)
2. Bryan Cranston, Argo (his career has been on fire lately and Argo's trailer gave him a lot of play)
3. Matthew McConaughey, Magic Mike (He'll get #1 votes, and I don't quite see Seven Psychopaths being assured of two supporting actor noms)
4. Leo DiCaprio, Django Unchained (I'm not completely sold on this movie's overall appeal, but I could see this nom if he wows.)
5. John Goodman, Flight/Michael Fassbender, Prometheus/Woody Harrelson, Seven Psychopaths/Bruce Willis, Looper/Seth McFarlane, Ted (the fifth slot is usually a pileup in this category, and I see these five as being positioned here this year, all having various issues in terms of the secure status of their nomination (Fassbender and Willis are sci-fi, McFarlane is mo-cap, Harrelson has to draw focus from Walken and John Goodman might just be a pencil sketch))
Supporting Actress:
1. Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables (Again, I don't think the movie's going to wind up doing the boffo business for across the board noms and wins because of it's overly late placement in the calendar year, but I'm confident in this single winning nomination.)
2. Amy Adams, The Master
3. Helena Bonham-Carter, Great Expectations (They have to embrace her gonzo crazy side eventually and this seems like the perfect excuse to shower praise on it.)
4. Annette Bening, Imogene (If it's a big enough hit, I'd expect career honours to help turn her into The Potential Spoiler)
5. Olivia Williams, Hyde Park on Hudson/Viola Davis, Won't Back Down (the fifth slot is always down to the wire, but I lean on Viola Davis because of career momentum and Hyde Park looking like a "leads are interesting, supports are dull" kind of piece.)
Still think everyone is forgetting/underestimating Michelle Williams in TAKE THIS WALTZ. Sure it was released early and didn't exactly light up the box office, but who knows? At least it might look good for the Spirit Awards.
The German submission for Best Foreign Language Film will be anounced at the end of the month, but they released a shortlist today. There's some more info on the films here:
http://kino-germanfilm.livejournal.com/1299.html
jj-- i haven't finished updating the visual pages yet so haven't reconsidered makeup. you'll notice that gatbsy and gravity and such are still floating around in the visual and technncial fields.
Ryan T., maybe "Take This Waltz" will be disqualified because is mostly a Canadian production
MJS - Actually "Catch me if you can" was considerate as a drama. Even DiCaprio got a GG in the Drama category. It is a more comedy as "The Help"
While you're going through the visual categories, I'd say you're probably underestimating The Master in Cinematography. 70mm is going to have some fans, for sure.
If Cloud Atlas works at all (and early word seems to be that it does), I'd think an editing nod is an almost certainty, given how it has to balance so many different stories. I've also heard Jim Broadbent steals the show, so Best Supporting Actor possibility? Halle Berry and Doona Bae may have some chances as well if the film catches on, and Picture might even be a possibility for the "Tree of Life" weirdo-ambitious slot.
For the animated category, GKids is releasing a whopping 5 titles that could be eligible if the release schedules work out: From Up on Poppy Hill, A Letter to Momo, Zarafa, The Rabbi's Cat, and Le Tableau. Of those, Poppy Hill (Studio Ghibli, and if Arrietty not eligible as might be the case it will probably get a lot of campaigning) and Zarafa (trailer looks beautiful and it was a hit in France) seem the most likely to get nominated. One of those two or Wreck-It Ralph should definitely replace The Lorax for the 5th slot prediction.
I don't know if Tony Kushner's involvement necessarily means Lincoln won't just be a stuffy period piece. I seem to remember people saying the same thing last year about Dustin Lance Black's involvement with J. Edgar, and lo and behold, it was perceived as a stuffy period piece. I have some serious doubts about Lincoln. It's already the end of August and there's not so much as a teaser trailer yet. Are they still tinkering with it? That's usually not a good sign this close to release.
Also, I've noticed in some of the comments here that John Hawkes seems to be off many people's predictions, and I have to ask: WHY? To me, him and Phoenix are pretty much done deals for Best Actor nominations, even if they ultimately don't end up being in direct competition for the win. Day-Lewis could get in based on his reputation and the pedigree of the role alone, but it's easy to imagine a scenario in which the critics' awards get split between Hawkes and Phoenix. I'm not sure why so many people are still doubting his chances...
I've also heard reports indicating that Walken is best in show in Seven Psychopaths. I'm wondering if this will mean a double nomination for the film in that category, or if Walken will steal the spotlight so much that Harrelson gets ignored.
There's a lot of category confusion going on already. While I'm confident that Weinstein will campaign Joaquin Phoenix as a lead, it's still hard to say what he'll do with Hoffman. If the movie becomes a massive critical success and turns into a Best Picture frontrunner, the studio may be confident enough to run a two-lead campaign, but I personally think they'll run Hoffman in the supporting category not only to ensure nods for both of them, but also to try and nab wins for each (Hoffman could very easily win Supporting Actor if the competition doesn't pick up quickly).
It also remains to be seen what they'll do about Viola Davis, Jennifer Lawrence, and Helen Hunt. I suppose it will depend on how well their respective films do. I think back to last year when Carnage underwhelmed everyone and the studio decided to switch their strategy and campaign everyone in the supporting categories. The only way I can see any of them going lead is if their movies end up being big successes.
I've even heard rumblings of Bill Murray going supporting for Hyde Park on Hudson. I'm a little skeptical about this. The trailer definitely seemed to showcase his performance above anyone else's, but if it the movie is centered around Laura Linney and it doesn't end up being a big critical success, then I guess I could see them pushing Murray for Supporting Actor, in which case I think he'd probably be nominated and might even end up competing for the win. Still, as of right now I'm thinking he'll go lead.
Oh, I should also mention that Hyde Park on Hudson is based on a radio play and is therefore an adapted screenplay, and I believe The Sessions is also being classified as adapted.
Streep is great in Hope Springs as is Tommy Lee Jones.
I actually think she is better in this movie than her technical greatness in The Iron lady.
She looks and feels more natural in her acting.. her makeup and voice change make her seem middle class America. To me some stars never seem real as they are so big in real life, but Streep manages to lose herself in her roles. For example, I have never seen a Streisand movie ( except Funny Girl ) where I was not watching Streisand and not the character she was playing.
Original Screenplay:
1. The Master
2. Seven Psychopaths
3. ParaNorman ("Don't make me throw this hummus! It's spicy!" The first half is a string of insanely tight and funny one liners, of which my initial quote is only one of many, that slowly eases into a more...moralistic...second half without the shift coming across as at all forced.)
4. Flight
5. Imogene/Looper/Magic Mike
Adapted Screenplay:
1. Argo
2. The Sessions
3. Hyde Park on Hudson
4. The Dark Knight Rises
5. Django Unchained/Lincoln/Life of Pi
I don't know if Joe Wright has the right career momentum for a second Best Pic nom at the moment. This could bolster him TO a second, but not just yet. Not coming off Hanna and The Soloist.
Er, what would that have to do with it? If they like the film, they like the film. Tom Hooper had no 'career momentum' before The King's Speech. Anna Karenina, if it's done well, hits all sorts of Oscar buttons, and since Wright's apparently doing some pretty high concept things with the staging it's likely to attract more interesting critical notices than a more straight adaptation (again, if it works).
New trailer of "The Impossible": http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sI6rUOnOGuw&feature=player_embedded
Without the inclusion of U2 song, I think it looks pretty remarkable and dramatic enough.
McGregor has a tought competition, but again Summit Entertainment can make miracles -Demian Bichir- and I would to see him as Oscar nominee.
For Watts, not only she can make it as a nominee, if the competition is to open a sorta weak, maybe she could win. Also, she could get the British spot -After all, she was born in England and lived in Australia.
Trivia: If the film could make it, it will be the first Spanish-produced film nominated by the Oscars in the Best Picture category
Sean C.: Tom Hooper didn't exactly have career momentum per se, but he was coming off a soccer related biopic that most in Hollywood might have at least heard of. So, I remind you: Joe Wright's last film was freaking HANNA. Even if Hanna's good (haven't seen it), does Hollywood really "respect" the people who make pint size assassin movies? In my precise view, it's going to take a 90-95% RT score to wash away that stink enough for Oscar to bite enough for a Best Picture nomination.
Edwin -- i know you just didn't compare Dustin Lance Black with Tony Kushner! ;) Oy. DLB wrote one good movie and has otherwise not proven himself all that talented. Tony Kushner is a major genius that even other geniuses are in awe of.
agree with you that Hawkes seems like a done deal.
as for Helen Hunt in The Sessions. I'm not sure why so many people don't beleive the supporting campaign plans. That's straight from the studio's mouths. Of course they might change their minds but people keep acting (online) like they ahven't even decided yet.
rubi-kun -- where are you hearing early word on Cloud Atlas?
Rick -- technical virtuousity is getitng to be a blight on awards. It can sometimes obscure the fact that technical greatness doesn't automatically equate with greatness. You can have all the technique in the world but if you make poor choices about your character work, they're still poor choices, even if you execute them brilliantly.
Volvagia -- i keep noticing this pattern with you of mouthing off about movies you haven't seen (though I'm glad you admit when you haven't seen things) and I frankly find it confusing. I wasn't a huge fan of HANNA but by and large people found it interesting even when they didn't like it and it has hardly dented his reputation as an important filmmaker. Maybe even the opposite. If anything people seem more excited about his experimental restlessness. In fact the only thing he's done that ever seemed to turn people against him was The Soloist. and even that was more shrugs, than people being "against" him. So in short, it's absolutely crazy to act like Hanna will be held against him.
Hooper: maybe Hooper hasn't a career momentum by the big screen, but at his age, he's one of the most succesful directors in TV and even with that he worked a lot in prestige projects with recognizable actors in both sides of the Atlantic. When he made "The Damned United" as his film's debut, even when didn't make it big by critics awards, it had a very possitive response. This is a little view of his work:
-Daniel Derronda: 5 BAFTA nominations
-Prime Suspect 6. 3 Emmy Nominations including Best Director
-Red Dust: Maybe his lesser work. Starring Hilary Swank and Chiwetel Ejiofor
-Elizabeth I: Remember that TV miniserie starring Helen Mirren, Jeremy Irons and Hugh Dancy. 9 Emmy wins including Best Director
-Longford: 2 Emmy Nominations and BAFTA for Best Direction
-John Adams: Maybe TV's Titanic. 23 Nominations and 13 Wins
With that lucky strike it is possible for career momentum when he's starring films on big screen. It was just of matter of time.
I love that Bryan Cranston has Oscar prospects. Maybe now Emmy voters may feel free to give that best actor emmy to Jon Hamm!
Nathaniel ... I appreciate your insights...but... on this one I disagree.
There were advance screenings back around Cannes.