Tim here. In hacking through the Golden Globes nominations this morning, Glenn asks, "The Wind Rises good for foreign language, but not animated? I'm going to assume they don't allow cross-over or else that's bit wacky." And indeed, (only animated films in English" is exactly the rule that the HFPA follows, though that doesn’t, to my mind, make it any less wacky.
Also a rule for the Golden Globes: there have to be 12 films submitted for consideration to trigger a five-wide set of nominees; anything less than that tops out at three. Makes the Academy’s own “16 candidates equals five nominees” rule seem measured and thoughtful, doesn’t it? In the seven years that the Globes have given out this category, their picks have only lined up exactly with Oscar twice. With the Academy looking to fill five spots to the Globes’ three, this will be the second time that they don’t even nominate the same number of films, though there’s always the possibility that the Academy will simply add two more films to the Globes list. Which, just to remind you, consists of The Croods, Despicable Me 2, and Frozen.
DIFFERENCES OF OPINION
2007: The Globes nominated Bee Movie and The Simpsons Movie; Oscar went for Surf’s Up and the Globe-ineligible Persepolis.
2009: The Globes nominated Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs; Oscar nominated The Secret of Kells.
2010: The Globes nominated Despicable Me and Tangled. There were only three Oscar nominees.
2011: A virtually unrecognizable pair of lists. The Globes gave the award to The Adventures of Tintin, also nominating Arthur Christmas and Cars 2. The Oscars replaced those with A Cat in Paris, Chico & Rita (both ineligible at the Globes), and Kung Fu Panda 2.
2012: The Globes nominated Hotel Transylvania and Rise of the Guardians. The Oscars nominated ParaNorman and The Pirates! Band of Misfits.
This tells us first that the Oscars are far more likely to break for less mainstream fare (not a sentence you get to say everyday), which is good news for The Wind Rises and Ernest & Celestine. I’m not all sure what to make of the Globes ignoring Monsters University; it's hardly an inspired franchise effort, but that's equally true of Despicable Me 2.
At any rate, Frozen should take this handily, and the Oscar race will still be a face-off between that film and The Wind Rises. Keep your eyes on this space, because we’ll be taking a look at that Japanese import today.