Decoding the Golden Globes animation nominees.
Thursday, December 12, 2013 at 3:30PM Tim here. In hacking through the Golden Globes nominations this morning, Glenn asks, "The Wind Rises good for foreign language, but not animated? I'm going to assume they don't allow cross-over or else that's bit wacky." And indeed, (only animated films in English" is exactly the rule that the HFPA follows, though that doesn’t, to my mind, make it any less wacky.
Also a rule for the Golden Globes: there have to be 12 films submitted for consideration to trigger a five-wide set of nominees; anything less than that tops out at three. Makes the Academy’s own “16 candidates equals five nominees” rule seem measured and thoughtful, doesn’t it? In the seven years that the Globes have given out this category, their picks have only lined up exactly with Oscar twice. With the Academy looking to fill five spots to the Globes’ three, this will be the second time that they don’t even nominate the same number of films, though there’s always the possibility that the Academy will simply add two more films to the Globes list. Which, just to remind you, consists of The Croods, Despicable Me 2, and Frozen.
Despicable Me 2
DIFFERENCES OF OPINION
2007: The Globes nominated Bee Movie and The Simpsons Movie; Oscar went for Surf’s Up and the Globe-ineligible Persepolis.
2009: The Globes nominated Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs; Oscar nominated The Secret of Kells.
2010: The Globes nominated Despicable Me and Tangled. There were only three Oscar nominees.
2011: A virtually unrecognizable pair of lists. The Globes gave the award to The Adventures of Tintin, also nominating Arthur Christmas and Cars 2. The Oscars replaced those with A Cat in Paris, Chico & Rita (both ineligible at the Globes), and Kung Fu Panda 2.
2012: The Globes nominated Hotel Transylvania and Rise of the Guardians. The Oscars nominated ParaNorman and The Pirates! Band of Misfits.
This tells us first that the Oscars are far more likely to break for less mainstream fare (not a sentence you get to say everyday), which is good news for The Wind Rises and Ernest & Celestine. I’m not all sure what to make of the Globes ignoring Monsters University; it's hardly an inspired franchise effort, but that's equally true of Despicable Me 2.
At any rate, Frozen should take this handily, and the Oscar race will still be a face-off between that film and The Wind Rises. Keep your eyes on this space, because we’ll be taking a look at that Japanese import today.
Reader Comments (5)
Interesting analysis. I'm still kind of sad that I haven't had a chance to watch The Wind Rises yet. I don't live in a location where I'm privy to any of the advanced screenings, and it doesn't seem as though it'll come out on DVD in Japan before the Oscars.
There's no strong song contender this year so assuming Let it Go is nominated there shouldn't be any trouble with The Wind Rises taking Animated Feature in a cakewalk
AJ-my guess is Frozen just takes both. Let It Go seems certain to win (it's tailor-made for the Oscars), and Frozen is making gazillions of dollars as well. I still feel that if The Wind Rises had opened wider a little bit earlier it would have been able to start building more buzz, which helps in such a populist category.
Tim-I am loving this in-depth coverage of the race. I always find it fascinating to do a real in-depth look at a specific category for an awards show-you always learn new patterns, new nuances, and inevitably get to see more good films.
My instinct is also that Frozen takes Animated Feature (it obviously has something close to a mortal lock on Song), and I honestly don't know if I think it's all that close. Miyazaki/Ghibli has already won, Disney hasn't, Wind Rises isn't as instantaneously likable, there'll be a backlash about its politics, and the entrenched wisdom is clearly turning into "a vote for Frozen is a vote for Disney in the 1990s", and who won't get behind that. But the critics are definitely going to favor the Miyazaki film.
I always prefer Best Oscar Animation nominations and Beat Globe Foreign language than their counterparts, because,like you said, they tend to choose more deserving (and less mainstream) choices. This year Globe animation proved once again a disappointing effort to the animation medium (animation just for kids, I get this)