Updated Charts - All Categories
Saturday, December 21, 2013 at 11:26PM 
The Oscar Charts are fully revised. Enjoy! I've currently predicted 12 Years a Slave, Gravity, Captain Phillips and American Hustle to lead the nominations hogging 37 nominations between them and The Great Gatsby and Saving Mr Banks to share the asterisked honor of "most nominations without a Best Picture bid. The wildest card is still The Wolf of Wall Street and the guilds will have to show us if that one is going to make a dent.
PICTURE | DIRECTOR | SCREENPLAYS
The top five look set in stone but how many nominees will we have? The race with the most mystery might just be Original Screenplay. Too many films still seem absolutely believable as future 'of course it was nominated' nominees. But there can be only five. Can Enough Said or Fruitvale Station, two films which have never exactly left the conversation, find a way to slip in?
ACTRESS | ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR
The precursor awards have locked up the female categories and placed guards around the door despite a pre-season that seemed robust with possibility. That's always a shame when the performances on the outside are as good as the ones that Adèle, Greta, Brie, Sally, Julia, and so on are giving. The male categories have also tightened up but the chamber isn't nearly as air tight. A bit of "who will it be?" mystery remains.
are these the films that are the biggest wild cards in terms of nomination count?
VISUAL CATEGORIES | SOUND CATEGORIES
Before the Guilds speak up let's speculate wildly!
FOREIGN FILM | ANIMATED, DOCS, SHORTS
The fields are already small from "finalist" lists. Watch along with us as we try to see them all.
Reader Comments (48)
Just saw Saving Mr. Banks... Ok movie ... do not see the love for Thompson ... i love her to death in most movies.... this one meh!
Your write ups on Julia Roberts, Octavia Spencer, Sally Hawkin and Margo Martindale in Supporting Actress got all mixed up..
I think Lawrence is more a lock than Squibb or even Oprah. She hasn't failed a single precursor, won a lot a of critics (second only to Lupita) and is a megastar with a huge box-office juggernaut happening right now.
I really don't see that Best Actress line-up - all evidence says yes, but it just doesn't feel right!
Adele will probably get in at BAFTA (foreign language isn't so 'second/third tier' in the pecking order there…
I also don't believe that Roberts will go on ballots as Supporting - it wouldn't surprise me if she takes Meryl's spot!!!
My gut instinct says Blanchett, Dench, Bullock… Roberts (!!!) and Adele or Amy… I know that Thompson is campaigning hard, but people don't seem to love the film… I see her as weakest.
Finally, I don't think that an all-previous nominees has occurred in 30-40 years!? No new blood is so, so rare in Best Actress…
Has Short Term 12 been screenered properly (to all branches?)
If you flat switched the Expected Nominees in Best Actress with the Dark Horse Contenders it would be my favorite Best Actress race since what, 96?
TB: I know! The second tier of actresses is so amazing. Why couldn't this be a "weak" year for best actress, where some of them would have a shot.
I think Thompson is this years Tilda Swinton/Angelina Jolie type.
Am I the only one who thinks Squibb may be in danger of not getting nominated? She's great and she didn't miss a single major precursor, but previous Alexander Payne movies always left a strong performance out of the nominees shortlist in spite of the precursor award love: Reese Witherspoon for Election; Paul Giamatti for Sideways and Shailene Woodley for The Descendants...
If Leo doesn't get in for Wolf, it'll be very disappointing. But at the same time a relief, since I can stop wasting my time following the Oscar race.
I saw Cooper and De Niro in SLP yesterday and got a reality check: that's the kind of performances they go for. Stuff Leo could do in his sleep, and never would do, for that reason.
This is the first time I don't mind Meryl Streep taking an obligatory slot in Best Actress. I can't believe people are resentful of an all previous winner lineup in a category for actresses. That actually says more about these women than it does about general Hollywood sexism or Academy voter laziness.
@Jake - I've been thinking that about Squibb. Also, no actor has ever won an Oscar for a Payne movie, even Clooney and Nicholson, who were presumed to be frontrunners for a time, so I don't think Dern will win this year. I just don't think the Academy cares for the types of performances he produces.
your work on the charts is sloppy;
It's not so difficult to in fact say "and 12 other critics awards" for Blanchett - because that does show the galvanizing advantage she has and it's much different than saying "and several other"
OR directly name "Houston and Kansas" for Bullock since she has only two.
Also might want to think about updating some of the accompanying text; where and what are the winter gifts the Academy is waiting for? Philomena was released in November, Gravity in October; Banks has already been described as a meh by many and we know Streep is not winning. On top of the whole thing Sony have expanded Blue Jasmine to more screens and locations for a preseason Academy mode. None of these things are reflected on your chart, Nathaniel!
Phantom has done an amazing job at the awardscorner that you can use and say a thanks while making your own chart much more professional looking and save yourself the effort that you have not put in the first place.
http://www.awardscorner.blogspot.hu/2013/12/awards-chart-2013.html
OK, so Blanchett gets "several other" with an overall 16 critics wins
but Leto gets "a million other" with 17 wins ?!?!
@Yavor--Cate Blanchett herself probably couldn't name all 500 critics associations that have given her awards, why should Nathaniel have to list them? It's his site after all...kinda rude to be complaining just because your favorites aren't being listed specifically enough. I mean really. Isn't it enough that she's winning?
Streep will get the 18th nomination. Her movie is opening at just the right time for the final word of mouth
LOL @ Yavor unhinged.
Are we about to enter the commenters-going-crazy portion of awards season?
@ TB, no it's not
the CB-Leto difference in listing their awards, even though they have the same number of awards, is proof enough of what I'm trying to say.
Yes, it's his site, but in the same line of thought we are his readers and are given the option to post opinions.
Ejiofor's write-up says "several other" critics groups, too, and Nathaniel seems to be a fan of his performance.
I don't think these smaller critics groups need to be afforded much more importance. They seldom offer any diversity of opinion (and, of course, now they're attacked when they do - see the blow-up at Awards Daily over the Utah Critics Awards last week). What's the point, other than to enable these critics to feel important and solidify the position of the frontrunners?
@ Suzanne, we're missing the point once again, he's a fan of Balnchett's performance, too
He's not a fan of Blanchett and it shows in how he writes about her. Whether positive or negative she can't catch a fair break with him even if he was forced at gun point. He might opt for the bullet.
Yavor -- if you don't like the site why are you here? just an honest question since you seem very negative lately in comments. I'll admit that i wish the charts were easier to maintain but alas... i do what i can with the time i have.
as for counting hte number of critics awards. If you're looking for that please go elsewhere. I'm never going to include everything since there are more organizations every year and so they mean less and less. it's more accurate buzz wise to say "many critics awards" than to say "12" because no one other than awards obsessives (and certainly not academy members) keeps count.
/3rtful -- WHAT ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT? I have expressed at every turn my admiration for Cate Blanchett's work in Blue Jasmine.
Mike -- yes, we always enter that in December.
Oh and also, under the Best Picture chart you will see the reason why i don't name all the critics organizations. It's too keep the chart readable. If you list everything it's entirely too messy and despite the misplaced blocks of text -- ah, triple checking and fixing now -- i do like the charts to be readable.
re: Payne
Lots of Payne films have unexpected snubs, that's true, but the supporting actress race is too amorphous (Nathaniel, I really disagree that it's locked in - after N'Yongo and Lawrence, I can see a few people making inroads) for Squibb to be dropped, I believe.
Best Actress
Roberts lost the nomination when they started campaigning her as supporting. She's lesser than Streep in terms of oscardom but she's an all-time list star and her role is a leading one. While the Globes and others have fallen for it, I expect enough people will vote for her in lead that it will split the votes and she won't get enough in either. Streep has gotten in on sheer inertia before, she's Streep in a juicy baity role.... I see it as solid placeholder. She'd have more momentum if she hadn't just won, but it's Streep, you know? Betting against her only makes sense when there are five candidates with more momentum and film support (2004)
Adele? Nope, not happening. Adams? Very possible, especially if Saving Mr. Banks underwhelms at the box office.
Not sure I've said this in comments before but I love The Film Experience - its always the first film site I go to everyday and Nathaniel (&guests) does a terrific job. Now my awards point - I dreamt the other day that Brie got Meryl's spot in Best Actress. I'm so torn over Best Actress this year!
You have stated plainly that you'll never love her as one of your favorites. You should have never said that because that informs me you have no interest in having her even approach appreciation for you that is equivalent to what your favorites get. Blanchett will have Streep-level staying power with the Academy and significant auteurs you're going to have to deal with her and her base even at your own insular home site.
@ Nat, I like the site
but it's fun how you dance around the sloppy work fact to the "if you don't like the site, why are you here" comment
interesting indeed...
you also evidently don't like to be reminded of mistakes and wrong judgements and assumptions, example: the Blanchett chances of Oscar glory back in the spring.
sorry if I sound negative but in fact I'm simply sticking to my "I'd love to see Blanchett shove her Lead Oscar down your throat" comment from the spring, that I'm not apologizing for! the same way you're not making any apologies for calling her a supporting actress, for trying to be Katharine Hepburn with click click click moments and what not.
I would also like to remind the audience of the fact that it was 3rtful who first said something in the lines of "Blanchett is giving me second oscar vibes on that picture with Woody" back in the summer of 2012 when the 1st Blue Jasmine pics appeared online. He was, naturally, made fun of.
It's genuinely hilarious to me that of all people Cate Blanchett has inspired this kind of crazed fandom. She seems so measured and polite...
Love the site Nathaniel! Keep up the good work.
Now back to the actual predictions...
I'm super interested in how many, if any, acting nominations Wolf of Wall Street and, to a lesser extent, American Hustle will get.
Especially with WOWS, I feel like it came out so late in the game anything can happen - especially since by now everyone will have had a chance to see it. It's not impossible that they are all being underestimated here and that we'll see ~6 acting nominations on Oscar morning between these two films.
Blanchett, Bullock, Dench, and Streep are safe in Best Actress, but I think that Thompson is very vulnerable. In fact, I expect Amy Adams to be Oscar-nominated in her place.
Julia Roberts is incredibly selfish for agreeing to be campaigned in supporting for 'August.' Another Oscar nomination isn't going to do anything for her career, whereas it could be life-changing for the divinely gifted and criminally underrated Sally Hawkins.
Hello! Hey Nat anytime you'll post that supporting actress smackdown...you know from 4 weeks ago...
/3rtful -- if i didn't state my opinions, why would anyone be here (including me)? ALL PEOPLE have favorites and biases about performers they connect with and performers they aren't specifically drawn to. Strangely many people don't like to admit this or pretend that they go into every piece of entertainment like some inhuman tabula rasa. Why bother with that farce?
Yavor -- in a peculiar way i appreciate the naysayers because it does force me to scurry and fix problems -- i'm fine tooth combing the charts now because, yes errors exist. Obviously I have preferenced more content over perfection for years but you do have to strive for a balance and lately I know i haven't had the balance just right. As for past errors, I get what you're tryign to say and I've certainly made them over the years but i don't agree that it was an error to suggest that Cate Blanchett shouldn't be handed the Oscar in June. The year could have gone much differently. She's lucky that it didn't and given the disappointing shit show that Best Actress often is it will be nice to have a deserving performance win this year.
ChrisD -- may your dream come true!
Jake -- great point about Alexander Payne movies.
Everyone -- when you're on the oscar charts if you go there often you might want to refresh your screen. sometimes your cache would not show changes that have been made to photos and text if the page is up frequently.
Anonny - agreed.
Reading this thread, I can't even imagine why Nathaniel would even bother keeping this site open. He has the patience of a saint with some of you rude, ungrateful, obnoxious people, old (3rtful) and new (yavor).
I've been reading the Film Experience for 10 years and hopefully will read it for 50 more. Keep up the good work, Nat.
Girls, girls, you're all pretty. If you don't stop fighting we'll make you wear uniforms.
Nat, love the site and the work. I don't always agree, but it would be a boring world if we did.
I think Streep and Dench are the weak ones. AMPAS are the last to announce and as so many have pointed out, this is not Streep's strongest perf They have a chance to show themselves as being less lock step than the others and with as strong a list of potential best actress candidates this year, they can do that without fear of being called reactionary or pandering. If ever there was a case for expanding a category beyond the 5, its best actress this year.
Adams won't get the nom and I"m not sure American Hustle will do as well as many hope or think, except for Lawrence. She has two big and very different performances on screen right now. Her range is more on show than anyone else except Bale and no one is watching his second movie.
No Leo. Too late out the gate for other groups to notice, it was almost an NC-17 and, as Nat says, baggage. It will be easy to over look him on voting day.
@ Jason, your comment is equally obnoxious, so you can intelligently repost the same comment by adding "oldest (jason)"
Henry -- please don't give them any ideas. we need 5 wide categories, as painful as it can be ;)
everyone -- i have just updated the charts again trying to fix little errors. hopefully things are spiffy now. now on to some actual writing.
Random -- if i post it now (the smackdown) it will have to be without my commentary. which i might do just so i dont leave you all hanging. i feel terrible that it fell by the wayside but things were tough this past month.
I will do cartwheels if Adele somehow ends up being nominated, although I think her chances sailed when she was snubbed for the Globe in favor of Winslet. I do think it's possible with BAFTA (they are always more generous with foreign-language performances, particularly French ones).
I'll remain quietly optimistic until Oscar nominations, however, since last year two women (Cotillard and Mirren) had the holy trifecta (Globe, SAG, BAFTA) and were eventually snubbed for an indie darling and an acclaimed French actress. We'll see.
Good gawd, some of you posters are rude. Nathan, I got your back!
@Nathaniel---- it's true you've raved about Blanchett's Blue Jasmine performance, but it's also true that you're not Blanchett's biggest fan and that's cool. We can't help who we like/love. But for me, Blanchett is the only actress that's comparable to Meryl Streep--- in range, craft and versatility.
(BTW IMO Jessica Chastain has the chops to be a future Meryl Streep and Blanchett)
I agree with your acting predictions for Oscar mostly, but may take exception to placement (1st, 2nd, 3rd, etc). I also agree with a few other posters to the site that Emma Thompson is probably the vulnerable Lead Actress nom. I think Amy Adams may get her spot. American Hustle truly had an outstanding cast.
Nathaniel, you're doing a fantastic job. Keep up the good work. I always love reading your charts and predictions.
@brandz & Hannahlily: I agree with you. And thanks, Nathaniel, for correcting the charts.
We all know how 3rtful is by now, but Yavor just joined his ranks. Good job.
Love you, Nathaniel, and the site. There's a reason I've stuck around since first stumbling upon TFE. That's all.
@ThickMama
"Julia Roberts is incredibly selfish for agreeing to be campaigned in supporting for 'August.' Another Oscar nomination isn't going to do anything for her career, whereas it could be life-changing for the divinely gifted and criminally underrated Sally Hawkins."
I guess that, according with this, every previous Oscar winner is incredibly selfish for campaigning and they should reject Oscar attention in favour of actors/actresses without previous nominations. And Meryl Streep must be the shelfiest person in the world, she has 17 nominations and she wants more, forcing Roberts to campaign in supporting... Come on...
I could understand the criticism about Roberts campaigning in supporting, but then I would like to see the same criticism on Abdi and Brühl categorizations.
P.S.: I LOVE THIS SITE. I love it even more when it differs from my opinions.
--This thread got insane in a hurry.
--Nothing wrong with being wrong in predicting oscars. Seriously, when we know nothing in June/July, it's not actually a character flaw to be wrong. Being wrong on the internet about the oscars is not a capital crime, as much as some discourse suggests it is. I'll be honest, though. I SUCK at predicting the oscars. So there is that.
--So, along those lines, who cares that he was "wrong" about Blanchett? And lets be clear, he was wrong in that he assumed that she wasn't a lock for a win. There are no locks in summer, so I would assert he wasn't even wrong.
--This doesn't mean you can't disagree with or be critical of Nathaniel, by any means. I have to admit whenever he talks about fanboyish responses to films (see Wolf of Wall Street), I feel like shouting MAD MEN (as I do believe his bias overrides fair discussion of the critical response). And that's where bias is bothersome - when it shouts down/dismisses dissent (which is what I feel he does re television in general, Mad Men in particular).
--Bonobo, I'd assert that the difference is that Roberts is accepting a false categorization to get an oscar nomination, as opposed to being a star in the supporting race. I'm fine with supporting roles being filled with "stars" and seeing nominations follow suit. I too would like to see more people get up in arms about category fraud, especially in cases like Abdi and Bruhl, where the supporting campaign is very much a class thing. But the idea that Streep is forcing Roberts to campaign supporting buys into that bullshit just as much as anything else. It's the example everyone mentions, but if it were today, Susan Sarandon and Geena Davis would be split into different categories to avoid competing against each other, and that is just factually incorrect. Yes, there are grey areas (Gandolfini this season), but I don't think this is one of those.
--Nathaniel, post oscar I hope you ask Katey/Nick/Joe in a podcast about expanding the five wide categories or not. I'd love it if AMPAS did.
--I still think DiCaprio has a real shot at a nomination, Annony. In a weaker year, American Hustle would probably get nominations in all four categories and Wolf of Wall Street in both men's categories. It's just that there are a LOT of acclaimed performances jostling for space and the narrative was set VERY early. DiCaprio/Bale and Cooper/Hill benefit because best (sup) actor really hasn't been locked down. Adams is up against the rare best actress slate that was set quite early and firmly (see 2006 and Maggie Gyllenhaal/Naomi Watts/etc). That she has a shot is a testament to her own oscar prowess and the cons the slate has (Dench could do it in her sleep, Streep has been better, Thompson's film isn't breaking in anywhere).
--More broadly speaking, women lead in best picture contenders much more rarely then men and I think we need to factor that in as well. Last year, we saw Riva and Wallis get in - yes, on the strength of their performances and other mutables, but they were in films that had broad support at the AMPAS level (whereas those they displaced - Cotillard, Mirren - didn't). If Saving Mr. Banks does solidly at the box office it might be enough (it's already outperforming Philomena, which arguably goes after a similar demographic). That, and Thompson is obviously a joy to have on the circuit and I suspect that plays very well with older voters too.
So will we have a surprise nominee in the way we had Jackie Weaver last year? No precursors but suddenly a Oscar nom? When it happens it seems to happen in the supporting categories.
As beloved as she is, I think Dench is on the bubble, the one who may get snubbed for Adams.
Don't think Abdi's a lock, I would say a 70/30 chance. Still think he might be passed over for a bigger name like Hanks, Gandolfini or even Forte.
I'd like to see Hawkins get in there but I can't see who would be left off. The Globes did snub Oprah - could it happen at the Oscars?