Updated Oscar Predix: Saving Blue Jasmine Station
Saturday, July 20, 2013 at 9:45PM 
It was time to check back in with our popular charts, clean off the dust and rearrange the furniture. But, that said, the Oscar year has been off to a slow start since the blockbusters have had little in the way of Oscar contending elements (beyond visual effects) and the best films so far have been tiny (Frances Ha, Before Midnight, Mud) and Oscar is a size queen.
PICTURE & DIRECTOR
Before you say anything, no, I do not think Fruitvale Station will win Best Picture. I've placed it at #1 on the charts this week merely because it's the only film I'm certain will be nominated at this point. When you start getting grabby media headlines like "Can a movie heal the nation?" people are already making your case for you. And, as rankings go, one should always remember that the charts are about nominations (until the actual nominations take place 178 days from now) rather than wins. I'm not one of those pundits that cares about who will win before we even have a nominee list; the nomination competition is the best part! I'd love to believe that Before Midnight had also already sealed up a nomination but I've never been convinced that AMPAS is really watching that intimate talky ephemeral once-a-decade brilliance. If they were they're crazy for not nominating the second film for Best Picture & Best Actress in 2004 (Million Dollar Baby's got nothing on Before Sunset in either category).
In other chart-shifting I've boosted Saving Mr Banks way way up (I know people were down on the trailer but Oscar predictions are about Academy taste rather than internet taste) and lost a bit of faith in Foxcatcher, though only really because its release plan is either nonexistent or very shy. [more]
ACTRESS & SUPPORTING ACTRESS
The big news in these categories is about to be Blue Jasmine since it opens on Friday and Cate Blanchett is reportedly amazing and BIG in it... when Cate goes big she gets unfortunate Oscar nominations (The Golden Age of OverActing) or divisive wins (Aviator) the poing being that Oscar notices. I had to miss the screening this week because I'd already committed to a little indie called Short Term 12 which was playing at the same time. I was super sad about this as you can imagine since it's a new Woody Allen with my lovely Sally Hawkins in it...
...but then I actually sat through Short Term 12 which was so great I regretted nothing (more on that soon). So I've added Brie Larson, the star of the movie, to the chart as well albeit in a very low position since no matter how terrific she is in each role or movie she makes, she doesn't appear in 'Oscar films' (yet) and even Emmy ignores her -- don't you think she deserved a nomination for United States of Tara?
ACTOR & SUPPORTING ACTOR
In supporting actor I still feel rather clueless since we haven't seen any viable contenders yet -- unless they push Matthew McConaughey for Mud and that'd still be a stretch -- but the possibilities (unseen) seem just north of endless. In the lead category we have chart climbs for both Michael B Jordan (who'd be the 10th youngest guy ever nominated for Best Actor if it happens) and that Wolf of Wall Street Leonardo DiCaprio who hasn't been nominated in ten years (SHUSH, I'M BLOCKING OUT 'BLOOD DIAMOND' ON PURPOSE) so he'll be doing a happy dance if it comes to pass...
ORIGINAL & ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Gains for The Wolf of Wall Street, Blue Jasmine, Saving Mr Banks...
ANIMATED FEATURES
Sheesh what is this category going to do this year? There's just nothing worth nominating yet. Monsters University will be there by default but it's so mediocre. It's time to revisit the number of nominees if we're getting default players. And considering how many contenders have already been screened in 2013 (The Croods, Turbo, Despicable Me 2, Epic, Escape From Planet Earth) that is a bad sign. Especially after the minor excitement the category brought us last year with four very good (if perhaps ungreat) nominees and little clear idea of who might take home the gold.
VISUAL CATEGORIES & AURAL CATEGORIES
Some movement in costuming -- go Patricia Norris. She's in her 80s and still waiting for that Oscar win. She has two films this year: 12 Years a Slave and The Immigrant and a little in visual fx to reflect box office. Pacific Rim's poor showing won't help it here. Amusingly, Costume Design and Visual FX are like exact opposites when it comes to caring about whether or not the movies they recognize are hits or not.)
As for FOREIGN FILM... I'm working on that impossibly wide category this week so we'll discuss the submission charts soon.
Reader Comments (68)
Brie Larson was one of of my favorite aspects of "Tara". I can see her sneak in a la J Law in Winter's Bone. It'll be hard, but she's not a complete unknown, either.
Of course, people will need to go see the movie first.
I think Amy Adams' four lifetime nominations are more than enough for an actress of her caliber. This stuff is a bit too unfair at times.
Having seen some films and sequences from others I'd bump up Rush (and Bruhl), Philomena & 12 Years a Slave, as well as Fifth Estate, Counselor and American Hustle is one of the best scripts I've ever read and that's BEFORE O'Russell tweaked it.... and push Captain Phillips and Two Faces of January way down...
Animated Feature: Honestly, I'd drop Monsters U (Pixar can't get nominated for everything, especially if it's below Brave level quality) and Turbo for The Croods (Dreamworks is going to push this more universal story because it'll secure them a nom) and Despicable Me 2 (Though the Academy doesn't usually go for sequels to films they haven't honoured before, THIS IS ANIMATED FEATURE. They're going to have to do that sometime.)
I'm so relieved we have no chance of Amy getting nommed this year. She stole Nicole's slot last year.
I love your Best Actress nods. Best Actors is out-of-the-box. I like that too.
Having made it to my Blue Jasmine screening (no shade intended), I'll say with great confidence that Blanchett is a lock. I would be astonished if whe were'nt nominated. It's a riveting merger of her incredible character immersion and capital-A acting, and she's in virtually every scene of the film. This is by no means a Woody Allen ensemble piece; it's the most performance-driven star vehicle of the year thus far.
*she weren't
This doesn't belong here, but I didn't know where to post it, Photo of the day: http://www.imdb.com/comic-con/photos/comic-con-2013-day-3-rm1171053312?ref_=hm_3p_vi1
wow, nine previous winners leading the best actress charts? toronto is going to open the doorfor the distaff adrian brody
kurtis,
what do you mean by "no shade intended?"
Before Midnight is much more traditional and bombastic than Sunrise (and also, I would argue, better - though certainly not for those reasons). The acclaim for Midnight is even more overwhelming that it was for Sunset and the series has now taken on much more cinematic heft. No one can deny it's a landmark in movie history. ALl that, and the nomination field is now potentially ten-wide - so I'd say Midnight has a stronger shot than Sunrise ever did, though certainly it's no lock.
Also Delpy gets to be much more temperamental, showier and rangier (and again, I would argue, much much stronger - though not for those reasons). If she was more 'sympathetic' she'd have a much better shot at a nomination, and it would still be a tough sell. But if at least a couple of the critics bodies manage to look past Blanchett, she could be in with a shot.
Nathaniel, I would actually be very curious to hear your thoughts on Delpy's performance in Midnight compared to her work in Sunrise.
yep, ladies and gentleman, the Nathaniel Cate Blanchett bitchying continues.
Stay tuned for more skepticism after he's seen the film and written his review.
But! Sally Hawkins, who's barely mentioned by people who've seen the film is, currently, his NUMBER 1 for Supporting Actress :) considering that her chances will probably be trashed by Amy Adams or Julia Roberts, to name a few!
I hope Blanchett wins and shoves her Lead Oscar down his throat.
If not this year, next year for Todd Haynes' "Carol"
If not next year, then next next year for Mamet's "Blackbird"
It'll happen very very soon.
I've heard that Bruce Dern will campaign as Supporting so he can Christopher Plummer his way through awards season.
According to recent rumors in Goldderby Dern will compete as a Lead - I don't know how truthfull is.
Actually I think we understimate Blue is the Warmest Colour as a potential contender in this Oscar race. Right now the news for the fight against the rules of AMPAS by foreign language film and with the recent events related to same-sex rights in both sides of the Atlantic will put the film as the EVENT in Hollywood. Also, this film is easily -According to many rankings by the critics- the most acclaimed Palme d'Or winner in years -Even surpassing "Amour" and "The Class"-. And now, with the confirmation that Blue... will release on October of this year in USA, I seriously think Adele Exarchopoulos will be our newbie instead Larson, Delpy (Sorry Delpy, but Blanchett stole your thunder) or Gerwig. This film is big even with Sundance Selects -Which they are making excellent effort at this stage-.
I know many people will said "But the lesbian sex scene will pull off voters", but after seeing the film I think this film is even more accesible than "Amour" and Exarchopoulos will charm more male voters.
BTW, with this year of full of great roles for African American actors, it would be interesting the combination - My bet are Jordan and Elba. Jordan, even with his age, he's getting excellent news, the film got a better response -Critically and Commercially- and the lotto of a "new Denzel Washington" will help his cause. Elba has the release date and the character.
I have no problem with Nat as a blog writer and founder to voice displeasure at one of Oscars biggest ever Best Actress travesty's in 2007 when they could have picked Jolie and 2004 the let's give her an oscar for playing our most beloved winner ever when Madsen was in there living a character plus his Woody facts stack up they never nommed Mia in lead even when she was more than worthy in 85 and esp 92 for Husbands and Wives,a role rarely discussed now..
Yavor -- if i have to gag on something shoved down my throat let it be an Oscar!
par3182 -- i agree that best actress is ridiculously overstacked with previous winners and nominees. where are the newbies? but any of hte younger girls are in very tiny films (gerwig,larson) or from distributors that aren't really oscar campaigners. I do imagine the festivals will have to bring a surprise or shakeup
yavor -- oh and you do understand that supporting and lead are different races right now? Being #1 on a completely diffuse cloudy chart where literally only one person has made any kind of mark is much different than being in a field where none of the contenders have opened but are all brilliant oscar beloved women. it seems weird to diss me for that? unless you just dont like sally hawkins?
leon -- i'd like to believe that "blue" will be an event (well other than than 3 hours part) but sadly it never seems to happen for foreign films lately. amour being a minor exception but even that opened so late and didn't really crossover to any more revenue than the typical foreign oscar winner
rik -- i agree. but we'll see. she still gets plum roles in prestige product so her tally could rise still.
goran -- i want this to be true. i am just a skeptic. I just dont think the kind of work Delpy does in those movies is Oscar type of work. There is no visible strain for effect, no capital A acting... it's all just living and inhabiting a character on a very very human scale. The movies dont even have plots per se. I love love love those movies. I'm just not convinced oscar voters do, that screenplay nod aside.
Nathaniel: it seems to me that you are allergic to Cate Blanchett whereas your huge love for Julianne Moore, Michelle Pfeiffer, Swinton, Streep and Kidman is really there. You can write an article about Moore going to the toilet or Kidman's hair in Stepford Wives. May I ask why it is so? The impression is that you could care less of what ever Blanchett does no matter how acclaimed her work in both film and theater really is. Yes different opinions are valuable but ignoring her constant amazing work may raise questions like Yavor's but also a little bit of frustration from myself ( Blanchett fanboy) and others. Ignoring such an inspiration artist also means ignoring great art itself don't you think?
@ Nathaniel R, I love Sally, but the logic behind your putting her in the number 1 spot bewilders me.
If we are to follow the logic of "work already seen":
1) you haven't seen "Blue Jasmine" yet!
2) Even if you had, following that logic of work seen by far, you might have put Blanchett in the number 1 spot, too.
3) if we are going to follow Oscar's logic, Blanchett is a threat, historically, Hawkins is not.
4) Manuel RAISED a very good question!!!
Nathan's distrust of Blanchett is all based on Streep. When Streep does it, her reputation is well earned, when Blanchett does it, he can see her acting, and all of a sudden he's Katharine Hepburn, oh bitch, bitch, bitch.
I prefer Blanchett and Chastain over Streep doing Streep because they're much better Streep(s) than the original. And Nathan loves ham, just not from Blanchett, who is like a Glenn Close perfect version of Streep, I really hate Streep, terrible filmography, and an outright boring everything else.
The picture you chose for Nebraska on the Best Picture charts is giving me everything today.
5) your constant excuse of "no Woodsman drama leads no Woodsman drama leads!!!" is not only boring and annoying BUT most of all it does not apply to names like Blanchett.
We can just as well ask the question in the following order: When was the last time he directed a great actress & a star & an Oscar loved name in a leading role in a good movie?
6) the first MetaCritics reviews have arrived: all 4 think she is exceptional, not only that, they think she is the best part of the film, she elevates the script, brings tri-dimensionality etc.
leon- If both Jordan and Elba get nominated, I'd be very pleased regardless of how I feel about the performances (which I haven't seen yet) just based on the fact that we'd have two The Wire alumni nominated in the same category. It would bring some small justice to the fact that the show never received an Emmy nomination for acting.
Blanchett looks like she might be the first lock in any of the acting categories this year. Interesting to note that no Woody Allen movie has received a nomination in either of the lead categories since Geraldine Page got a Best Actress nomination for Interiors back in 1978 (and that was arguably category fraud). I don't like remembering that Mia Farrow wasn't nominated for The Purple Rose of Cairo or Broadway Danny Rose, but unfortunately it's true.
Correction to my last comment: I forgot that Sean Penn was nominated for Sweet and Lowdown, so that's the last time a Woody Allen movie was nominated in one of the lead categories. Still, Interiors was the last one to receive a Best Actress nomination, so the point still halfway stands.
Why no love for Ethan Hawke back in 04? You know he deserved to be nominated over Depp and Eastwood, at least. For me personally, I would nominate him above all of that year's nominees except DiCaprio.
Blanchett is locked. All reviews have singled her out (even when they disliked the film). Tour-de-force performance is mentioned everywhere. She's even more locked than Streep now. Those digs at her nominations were unnecessary (okay she didn't deserve that "Golden Age" nom but I thought you liked her "The Aviator"??). I am anticipating your negative review of her "overacting" performance.
Face it, she's coming for that lead Oscar and she's coming for you, Nat (lol, jk).
So agree with Manuel and Yavor!
And I don't want to get you down, Nathaniel, but I think it's gonna be Blanchett's year rather than Nicole's.
Oh my, the attack of the Blanchetteers. This season will be touh. And let me tell you something very loudly:
PALTROW DESERVED HER OSCAR
Bye.
Jesus Christ, people. It's an *opinion* of Nat's, that's all. Just because he may not prefer Blanchett doesn't qualify as a legitimate affront to you personally. He's entitled to his own POV, as is anyone. And if memory serves, Nathaniel *did* praise Blanchett in The Aviator quite a bit, so his assessment of her performances is more fair than many indictments of his so-called disses/biases. I fancy Blanchett & Streep as actresses, by the way, but enough mishegas already.
I'm just curious. Why is Nathan not entitled to his own opinion on Cate? He has his reasons and they are worthy.
Paltrow is irrelevant.
Damn, people really like Cate Blanchett......she aiight I guess.........
Yavor -- yes and yes... and I have predicted her to be nominated. What else do you want? I have always found pundits who proclaim people winners before nominations are announced to be distasteful and disrespectful of the competition and the fun of the Oscar race and it seems like that's what you want me to do. I shan't. It's not my thing.
Manuel & Others -- "why is that so?" Because, uh, like everyone else I have my favorite actors and the ones that do less for me. But I grow SO tired of people freaking out at me about Cate. It's not like I don't love her in some things. This happened when i did that top ten article about her too. I listed my ten favorite performances and all of you bitched! (because i didn't love all ten enough I guess?). She received a medal here in 2004 (The Aviator) and another nomination in 2007 (I'm Not There) a performance which I totally said 'mea culpa' about since I suspected -- remember how long it took that film to come out? -- that she was just being praised for gimmick mimicry and then i found the performance itself totally sly, smart, and fascinating once i saw it. she totally deserved that nod. She did not deserve to fraud her way into the race in 2006 and she 5,000% did not deserve recognition for Golden Age and her face at the Oscar clip said it all. I stand by these statements and I dont even think they shoudl be controversial ones.
so, yeah, it seems like if i don't worship every move she makes, y'all aren't satisfied. I will never love her as much as I love Kidman or Streep just like you will never love____ as much as you love _______. People have opinions. #sorryboutit
P.J. -- that's fine with me. I really have no interest in Nicole Kidman winning another Oscar for another biopic role when that is hardly indicative of her filmography. She should be winning another one for her insanely great creative original characters.
Cal -- hee. Paltrow is pretty great in that movie but my Oscar woulda gone to Montenegro (Central Station) or Sheedy (High Art) that year
I'm not asking you to predict her as a winner, but as of now what other name has more actual buzz? You said it yourself, we're simply doing the nominations right now, however, there are rankings next to those nominations, you know? -> NUMBERS!
And I'm curious on the grounds of what you've put Sally at number 1, is my writing THAT difficult to understand?
And you can cry me a river about how sorry you are or whatever, but it is a fact that when you post about her, you almost all of the time make sure to be a little bitch, too.
@ all who perceive some of us as Blanchetteers, suck it up! The woman has fans cuz she's phenomenal AND just as Nathaniel R is entitled to write shit about her every once in a while (but claims it's not shit, only after he's been asked why he's doing it again) we are entitled to come here and ask "why" and defend her, suck that up, too ;)
Cheers
@ Cal Roth,
- in your universe Paltrow deserves her Oscar: great!
- In the actual universe, most people (Blanchetteers or not) don't think so: greater!
Wow...I actually never knew Blanchett had such staunch supporters! I mean, I like her work, but hearing about her new projects doesn't send me over the moon. Go figure. For the record: I agree with Cal on the Gwynnie's Oscar, but would've been fine with a Blanchett win as well.
Also, can I just say how excited I got for 2 seconds when I thought that picture of Cristin Milioti in "The Wolf of Wall Street" was Cher?
Yavor, why do you s desperately need Nathaniel to put Blanchett at the top of his prediction anyway? Go elsewhere, there are plenty of other writers who can satisfy your craving for full blown Blanchett worship. It's already depressing as hell when all the pundits and critics start deciding on the exact same candidates during the actual awards season, why are you so hell-bent on consensus this early in the game? If Nathaniel wants to focus less on buzz, which yes, Blanchett is ruling as of now, with vey few Oscar vehicles to debut, and more on stats, then it's his right as the owner of this blog. You're not entitled to demand he see it your way or to demand that he admits he's "wrong" (you gotta wait until she actually wins that supposedly inevitable Oscar before you shove anything down anyone's throats).
I'm a fan of Cate's and am looking forward to both Blue Jasmine and Carol but your bullishness in this post almost makes me want her go trophyless for a while. I can't imagine how off-putting it must be to people who aren't fans of hers.
Y'all are so sensitive, lol. He didn't even say anything offensive. He was stating facts, really. Her aviator win was divisive, not everyone liked it. And her golden age nomination was such a joke. That's all. And who cares if he talks shit anyway? Is what he says so important that it tarnishes your fav? Not at all. Cry me a river.
@ Alice,
1) since when did my asking for an argumentation on a choice transformed into "desperately need"? I'd like to know on the grounds of what she is 4, while a person from the same movie (Hawkins) is number 1? I'm not desperate about that, I'm curious and when he replied to me I did not get an answer. Now... is that so difficult to understand? I will repeat so that you, in this case, Alice, can understand, I do not wish Cate specifically to be on the top of the list at this present moment, but I'm really curious why Hawkins is at the top in supporting? Understood? I do hope so.
2) And if we are going to talk about off-putting-ness, I've already mentioned what is off-putting to me.
Yavor, look that would've been perfectly reasonable if you'd asked reasonably rather than going straight for the jugular with the "Nathaniel's bitching about Blanchett" spiel. It's probably easier to get answers from people and to get a discussion going if you just ask politely especially on topics as minor as nomination ranking.
Anyway, I feel like since Nathaniel hasn't seen the movie, which he states, it kind of makes sense that he's predict Hawkins as Allen supporting roles have a good track record of being nominated. He also said that Hawkins is 1 because the Supp Actress field is much more nebulous this year, lacking the instant name recognition (in Oscar-loving circles anyway) line-up of the Best Actress field right now. The two races aren't the same, so being in the same movie may make Hawkins no. 1 in a "weaker" field, but Blanchett no. 4 in a "stronger" one in his eyes. Having not seen the movie and not knowing what kinds of performances the two women give/how much screen-time or scene-stealing moments they actually get, this reasoning makes perfect sense. Esp if you also consider that Nathaniel probably isn't keeping up with the minute-by-minute updates of what his writer peers thought of the film so that he can go into the film with a fresh and open perspective.
Sorry for the analysis of your thought process Nathaniel!
Thank you, Alice :) for your detailed explanation, I like it a lot.
Inside Lleywn Davis needs to be higher. It's been screened, it's been highly praised, and it's set in an era that can easily appeal to Academy voters across the board. Plus, it's the Coens, who got in for A Serious Man in picture (honestly, what other filmmakers would be able to get a picture nomination for a film so crazy, even if I completely adore it?) and got director noms for an action/adventure western. The Academy loves them and the reviews have been ecstatic. Seems like a slam dunk for a nomination in picture and probably director too.
Nathaniel stated very clearly that no Woody Allen film has received a lead Oscar nomination since 1978. That's a pretty big statistic. Yes, the Academy loves Cate and I'm sure she'll almost certainly go on to a nomination for Blue Jasmine, but at least his rationale is based on historic evidence. And, you know what, she's ranked below MERYL FREAKIN' STREEP in the adaptation of arguable Broadway's most critically acclaimed play of the last couple of decades, EMMA FREAKIN' THOMPSON in a biopic, and Sandra Bullock in the movie he suspects will a reap big nomination tally for a film by a bonafide modern master. It's not like she's ranked below Delpy and Gerwig.
Oy.
No problem Yavor. I already overanalyse the oscars but doing it to Nathaniel's predictions is prob a new level of over-investment :)
I want to stress though that even if Nathaniel was letting his personal bias influence his nomination ranking a little, that's still perfectly fine and doesn't really call for denouncements. It's his site and anyway, we all do it. I remember claiming early on in whatever year's race it was that the Hilary Swank Amelia vehicle was going to be a non-entity, not because I knew anything about the movie, not because I'm a predicting genius, but because I had a completely petty dislike of Swank as an actress and just refused to believe it'd happen. I don't think Nat would be as blindly petty as me :) since he's a pro at this, but you know we can't expect pundits to give out flawless logical arguments for all of their thoughts, esp since so much of the predicting at this stage of the year is about hunches and possibly irrational suspicions that could pay off later on.
Good god, people. I love Cate Blanchett and I love Nat's opinions and writings. I don't care if he hates or likes a performance of hers because his writing is always so interesting that it's a joy to read regardless. Take your bitching somewhere else. Not everyone has to downright LOVE the same things you do.
LETS NOT LET THIS BLOG TURN INTO AWARDSDAILY WITH CHILDISH FIGHTS AND ATTACKING THE BLOGGER
We're better than that.
Thank you.
@ Jordan, nope, this is a blog, people use the "create post" button, simple isn't it?
also nobody has said anything about Nathaniel having to "downright LOVE the same things" as someone else. Some of us have said he's been a bitch toward Blanchett - a plain as day fact. Yes, this is his website, yes, he has the right to do it, yes, we have the right to remind him of it, too.
I have a feeling your underestimating jared leto in dallas buyers club. Most test screenings have raved about his performance and mcconaugheys.
I think Blanchetteers need some reality check:
Why to think Blanchett is not that great is being a bitch toward her?