Halfway: Oscar Chart Updates ~ Acting, Animation, Screenplay
Wednesday, July 1, 2015 at 7:00PM ½way mark - part 1 of ?
With the year half over (if not really the film year which is so backloaded) and the trailer to Grandma out -- good news, it doesn't remotely spoil the best jokes or character beats -- we are reminded that it's time to update the Oscar Prediction Charts. Consider this the start of a weeklong "½way mark year in review"
BEST ACTRESS & SUPPORTING ACTRESS
More and more Carey Mulligan in Suffragette seems the one to watch. It was interesting to read at Deadline how well Far From the Madding Crowd has been performing in international markets, too. That's good news for her momentum for the future relaese. Build your case as a worthy star and not just for one movie since Oscars are almost never decided on performance alone; Career timing and momentum is nearly always at least as important. That's the chief reason I'm still waffling on whether or not Lily Tomlin traction can happen. If she gets an Emmy nod this month, we'll know that "Let's Celebrate Lily's career!" is in the air. She's so good in Grandma so if that's the industry mood, a nomination could well happen.
Meanwhile Carol's Cannes success affects both Actress charts and also dings my faith in Freeheld which will be competing directly with it, however unfair that is and however different the films are, given that they're both lesbian romances with co-leads in which big stars headline and the younger will probably pursue category fraud.
UPDATE 07/02 Serious shake-ups in both of these charts - Supporting Actress chart fix (lost tier)
BEST ACTOR & BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
After Cannes, Paolo Sorrentino's Youth is seemingly like a real possibility in multiple categories. Even its detractors are inadvertently making a case for it. The reasons they hate it seem like "Oscar-will-love-this!" potshots. Plus: there are far worse filmmakers to crib from then Federico Fellini if your aim is Oscar gold. So, this is a long way of saying that I've boosted Michael Caine into the top five. I am weirdly resistant to his particular star charisma (yes, even from his heyday) and take issue with the past Oscar wins but I realize that this isn't true of the vast majority of movie lovers and if the film gets a big Oscar push, he'll be an easy sell.
In the supporting category mea culpa. Readers suggested that I was crazy to leave out stage giant Mark Rylance (an actor I love who rarely makes movies) for Bridge of Spies. Once the trailer hit, I started losing faith in the movie and gaining faith in him. Funny that. In my defense, these things are anyone's blind pin the tail on the donkey gamesmanship before any footage has been seen (and even to a lesser degree after since so many other factors come into play). But why does the movie look so bland? It's Spielberg/Hanks/Kaminsky and they have 7 Oscars between them. Where were the memorable shots or instant-resonating storytelling beats? And yes you can squeeze those into a trailer.
ANIMATED FEATURE & SCREENPLAY CATEGORIES
The big news in both of these categories is the stellar debut of Inside Out. While total Best Picture nominee confidence may be a a case of wishful thinking situation with fans (it's possible but the Academy goes through phases and they might have moved since the animated feature category is so firmly established now and Pixar might be deemed well-enough rewarded over the past decade plus). That said, at this halfway mark it seems insane to imagine it losing the Animated Feature Oscar it's already so successful and acclaimed. Which means we could well see it in its screenplay category too where animated films can sometimes compete if they're beloved and clever enough (see: The Incredibles, Toy Story, Up) and this one is on both counts.
I've also added in The Program, Stephen Frears helmed story of Lance Armstrong's scandal now that it has a title and a trailer. We never shared the trailer (oops) but it looks pretty intense and the cast, especially Ben Foster, looks strong.
PREDICTION INDEX
Picture, Director, Sound, Visuals, Foreign are not yet updated but they will be within next couple of days
Reader Comments (49)
Is that a version of Kate Bush's "Running Up That Hill" on the trailer? If so, does anybody know the artist?
Nathaniel- I am sorry but moving Meryl down to Tier Two is blasphemy. She surely has the strength to knock down a couple of your top five.
After the trailer premiere for "Secret", I surprised Julia didn't get a significant bump in your predictions (the director is saying she is magnificent in her scene where she is told her daughter is dead)...nevertheless, my psychic powers are telling me Carey and Cate are definitely in the final five.
Yeah! love reading through your predictions.
I admit I'm biased in all things Blanchett so take this with a grain of salt. However you might be underestimatng Phyllis Nagy for the screenplay adaption of CAROL. It is exquisite and she has the narrative 1) took her 12 years to get the script she wrote on spec produced 2) was first person and only person attached to project for a long time 3)was a friend and protege of Highsmith ie has lots of funny anecdotes that will help her campaign 4) articulate and warm in interviews so far.
I think she's the best chance for a win from that film.
I'd include Elizabeth Banks for Love & Mercy in your top tier for Supporting Actress.
Please add Diane Ladd to your supporting actress predictions. She's in Joy as Jennifer Lawrence's mother.
I know it stands no chance at Oscars specifically but I hope "Duke of Burgundy" gets something somehow. Seems like a movie ripe for some Film Experience love, too. The gem of the year for me, it's hard to imagine there being a better female-centered love story, but I'm excited to see Todd Haynes challenge that with "Carol."
I am totally happy with Carey Mulligan winning, but Jennifer Lawrence will heavily campaign for Joy (no matter its value) so Carey has to have a really smart and strong team behind her. Meryl may get a Golden Globe nod for Rikki but it's supposed to be a light Summer entertainment and those usually do not end up with Oscar nods (but she was nominated for The Devil Wears Prada, so it depends on how her performance and the film are received). My gut says she is not nominated this year at all, and then she will come back in a few years and win two more Oscars for extraordinary performances we cannot even imagine. Go Carey.
I hope Jane Fonda happens.
Also, lol at Diane Ladd playing Jennifer Lawrence's MOTHER.
Hmmm...
Has there ever been a year where there have been more bio-performances nominated than not? Because this really seems like it could be that year.
I'm very curious how the trans community will react to Redmayne's performance/film. I'm also curious if it'll matter much.
murtada, the one thing about Carol that worries me is Weinstein, actually. For all the plaudits they get for their ability to get their films in the race, their recent trend doesn't favour the difficult. When you look at the films that occupy the edges of what constitutes "edgy: best picture nominees - films like Black Swan, Winter's Bone, The Tree of Life, Amour, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Her, Grand Budapest, Birdman, even 12 Years a Slave - we're talking about Fox Searchlight or Focus Features. I don't think Weinstein's strategy of throwing six films against a wall and seeing what sticks will work here.
Hayden W - yeah, wow. There's a whole Laura Dern in between Ladd and Lawrence. When will Hollywood learn?
Travis C, that sounds like Placebo's version of Running Up That Hill.
I think Tomlin is in and somewhat surprisingly will be contending for the win. I don't see Vikander, Ronan, or Blunt winning (Blunt could if that movie had more of a positive consensus) and Tomlin may have even more momentum than Mulligan. Blanchett and Lawrence (if she's nominated) already have recent Oscars, making me skeptical they'd get another so soon.
Depp also ranks highly on my Best Actor predix. He's got the buzz, the history of good performances, the publicity arc of making a return after a spate of lousy work, and he's Oscar-less. I'd certainly put him ahead of Hiddleston, Caine's third Oscar, Redmayne's second in a row, or DiCaprio for a film that already has some chomping at the bit to put it down.
Fun fact: I recently saw in a dream that the Oscar nominations were already announced in the summer for some reason. Meryl got the fifth slot (of course), but Lawrence was out (and I was very pleased). Unfortunately I didn't see/remember the other nominees. Sorry, everyone!
I think momentum is on Lily Tomlin's side. Last year she was one of the Kennedy Center's honorees and received a high-profile tribute on prime-time TV. Now she's the undeniable MVP of a relatively well-liked comedy from a red-hot "TV" producer (Netflix). Getting an Emmy nod would help but isn't essential. I think you're keeping her on the second tier because you're afraid of getting your hopes up!
Streep's role in Suffragette is supposedly a cameo ... I don't think a nom...
Also, I am big on Elizabeth Banks for Love and Mercy.. Paul Dano as BA
I love Lily, but I found her vehicle incredibly bare and juvenile, and her performance really suffers from being in such a lackluster film that probably will go unseen by many Oscar voters. She's usually the only thing worthwhile about a scene, dealing with her awful costar and hemorrhaging out those Screenplay 101 lines with enough charm, but it's not nearly her best work by far. The nomination would be very exaggerated, and I'd say even improbable.
If Tomlin is able to go all the way she joins her Shadow and Fog prostitute costars in the Best Actress Oscar winner category (Jodie Foster, Kathy Bates).
@John
Everyone will see Tomlin's movie the distributor is Sony Pictures Classics.
If we're talking narratives, the Elizabeth Banks has a doozy. She also had the directing gig of Pitch Perfect 2, which you know will be talked about a lot on the award season trail since it opened so huge and made $190m or some astronomical number. I haven't seen the film, but doesn't she play a long suffering wife, too?
People really talking about Lily Tomlin for the WIN? Okay, sure, like that'll happen.
@ Hayden, Arkaan: Better than Reese Witherspoon playing her mother...
@ rick: Cusack as "Supporting"?
@ Glenn: Banks in Love and Mercy is more a short-suffering love interest, the savior woman. And she's great. But if she gets in, in my opinion it will be on the coattails of the film's presumed awards success.
Nathaniel I'm surprise you don't have Arielle Holmes on your Best Actress chart for her electrifying performance in "Heaven Knows What" it's the best female lead performance I've seen so far this year while her Oscar chances are slim I think she has a,shot at an independent spirit award nomination
At this point in the year, my full Best Supporting Actress support is behind Phyllis Smith for 'Inside Out'. Staggering performance.
I will be rooting for a nomination and possibly a win for Tomlin. Oh please Meryl can sit out this year....the trailer was atrocious! Between Freeheld and Carol, I'm hoping Blanchett will score a nom over Juliannne. And yes for Mulligan and Blunt. As for Jennifer Lawrence, let's hope she sits out too.
I would love to see Lily Tomlin nominated for Grandma. The trailer makes her out to be a potential contender. Nathaniel, you've seen the film? By now your predictions have the clout to help build the momentum for certain contenders. It's clear that she has fans, though it would be nice to see critics and her peers show the same enthusiasm for her work and career. Keep hyping it up! Let's help Lily beat out Carey, Cate, Jennifer, and Emily. Meryl will completely agree with all of this.
Wait: don't you LURVE Caine not even in Hannah and Her Sisters?
Can't believe Rooney Mara, Carey Mulligan and Leo D are going to win this year. Those are my only predictions so far.. Plus Alicia Vikander will be nominated for something.
If they go Tomlin in Lead wouldn't they want want to see Fonda back too in Supporting,she is apparently on fire in a one scene wonder and Oscar loves those.
I've heard so much about Blanchett/Mara in Carol from the Cannes premiere but very little about Sarah Paulson and Kyle Chandler. Are their roles memorable/juicy enough for nominations or will they be sidelined for the two leading ladies?
Carey Mulligan looks to be doing tremendous work in Suffragette based on that staggeringly effective trailer and I think she may be the one to beat in best actress this year.
EVERYONE -- i forgot a tier in supporting actress so it's been reinstated. (the supporting charts are meant to match so now it's as big as supporting actor)... so you'll see FONDA, BANKS and other missing people there.
I think you're underestimating Joy. I'm not sure why Russell, Lawrence or Cooper would be suddenly less popular with the Academy, On the other hand, it will be interesting to see if The Revenant will be as big a deal as you think. I'm not sure that even the people who voted for Birdman will be keen on nominating another Inarritu film so soon after he dominated the Oscars last February.
Ben Foster looks terrific in The Program. He is a super great actor and now gets a plum leading role in a biopic that actually looks interesting (vs self important or stuffy, which unfortunately is how oscar prefers their biopics). Hope he gets traction.
Suzanne -- i'm not sure i follow the reasoning that Russell/Lawrence/Cooper love would have no way of dissipating after years of dominance but Inarittu after 1 year of dominance would? All Oscar runs come to an end at some point so it's only a matter of time for both filmmakers. I'm not sure why I don't feel bullish on "Joy" but maybe it's the subject matter?
But i think it's worth noting that the Academy has loved Inarritu always. Every single one of his films has been Oscar nominated in some capacity or another against fairly steep odds (given the subtitles and miserabilism). This isn't true for David O. Russell who it took Oscar longer to warm to despite films that were more "entertaining" even when they were serious.. They've loved only 3 of his films, consecutively I'll grant you that, but maybe they won't totally love the 4th in a row?
Its funny how everyone forgets that the academy love innaritu from the start. Nathaniel is right every one of his films has been nominated. Even Biutiful had two huge noms. but Biutiful is actually my second or third fave of his so I'm not upset by that.
Mercy. I know that this is hardly your fault but oy do those lists look like mayonnaise in a snowstorm.
lol. this is true. but what can Oscar do unless the industry starts casting with more diversity?
Nathaniel - It's very, very hard for a Best Director winner to be nominated for his or her film following the win, unless he or she is a legend. There's probably a bit of jealousy involved, as well as a "spread the wealth" mentality. And I think the fact that The Revenant is going to be released right on the heels of Birdman - for which Inarritu was more than amply rewarded - is going to compound the matter here.
Also, just a reminder - they loved Lawrence from the beginning, too.
Finished Nightcrawler this morning. Gyllenhaal was robbed. Sure it would be cool for Michael Keaton to have an Oscar but the best performance was not nominated.
...what can Oscar do unless the industry starts casting with more diversity?
For Oscar to become more inclusive it must consider non-prestige bait productions for consideration. Of course politics would creep in there with white filmmakers with greater reach within the establishment would use those contacts to their benefit for their non-bait vehicles.
Not really buying this Alicia Vikander being an "It Girl," which is already a pointless term. She is flying so under the radar for being in that many movies in 2015. The public doesn't know who she is. Of course that could change by the end of the year but I have a hard time believing she could be so high on your chart.
Del Toro easily stole the buzz for Sicario, Blunt wasn't really highlighted in a way that would make me think she would be nominated.
I also hope Fonda happens. Imagine if Fonda and Tomlin are both nominated?
I want to drown in that still of Kate Winslet in The Dressmaker. Give me a double-nom for Dame Kate (it's inevitable) and Ron Howard can walk away with the night for all I care.
Some considerations Nathaniel:
The 33 and Creed are Warner Bros. films.
Leon - yup. updated. had it on one chart and not the other.charts are such a pain in my arse ;)
You have been working very hard on these charts, thanks for upgrading both Mulligan and Rylance who were my picks. Mulligan who is without an Oscar has the best shot she could hope for.
Is there any specific reason as to why in the banners above the categories in your Oscar charts you don't acknowledge J.K. Simmons recent win in the Supporting Actor category? I was just curious because the three other acting winners are represented and other winner from this past year are included as well but he is not.
I have a feeling poor Mulligan's Oscar career will parallel Lynn Redgrave's in the sixties. Georgy Girl was a huge hit. It took her thirty years to get another nomination.
I think Lawrence will rally for a fourth nomination. Joy will probably be a big moneymaker, a critical darling, and will get considerable Golden Globe attention. Lawrence is so well-liked in Hollywood.
I would be surprised if that actress line-up happened--not that they aren't talented performers--but when was the last time there was a lineup with no American actresses included? (Although perhaps that's a mute point since Saorise is a dual citizen).
I'm not sure Lily Tomlin is the frontrunner, but I definitely could see a rally of support for a nomination. And if Joy is critically-acclaimed and a box-office hit then there's just no way Jennifer Lawrence is not included. The film is coming out at the right time, when people will be watching their screeners over the holidays and filling out their ballots. And Lawrence is so well-loved in the industry and it's likely to be a showy role (for better or for worse).