Who got the biggest Oscar boost from the Globes?
Monday, January 9, 2017 at 3:57PM I'll be updating the Oscar charts once the Globe results have settled and the BAFTA nominations are thoroughly parsed. To do so we must ask the time old precursor awards question: who benefitted most from winning or losing at this speed bump on Oscar's highway (sorry for the clumsy metaphor -- I have driving on the brain due to La La Land's big deal opening number). Perhaps the obvious answer is Isabelle Huppert who has had a tremendous week winning the NSFC and the Globe and her movie winning the Globe, too, and finally passing the not insignificant $1 million mark at the box office (making it the one of the most successful foreign language film in the States this year.)
Moonlight's Best Picture win and La La Land's sweep (now the biggest Golden Globe winner of all time with 7 prizes) is perhaps the most "what does it mean?" prize. It's good news for both films obviously, at least for marketing purposes, but since Moonlight's was the last prize of the night and it had won no other awards, will it be anyone's "takeaway" from one of television's biggest awards nights? And do La La Land's seven prizes feel like overkill?
I grilled Team Experience who they thought benefitted from the Globe trophies...
In short there's more than one way to look at the night's winners and losers so I grilled Team Experience on who they thought benefitted most from the trophy party. Do the multiple losses for Lion, Loving, and Hacksaw Ridge fire up their fanbases in the Academy to vote for them this week (Oscar ballots are due by Friday), do some La La Land fans figure their votes aren't needed and bump up their other favorite films on their ballots? Sure the vast majority of voters probably don't "strategize" their ballots like that but there are multiple kinds of voters and they all count.
Daniel: In the awards show equivalent of standing in front of a movie theater screen to block everyone's view but your own, La LA Land trounced its competition in the room, category-by-category, and took home a historical haul of spherical hardware. While another day in the sun was more or less expected for the film, the same cannot be said for the night's second-place finisher - with two Golden Globes - which blissfully is Elle, where Paul Verhoeven and Isabelle Huppert twirl more red flags in your face than the Canadian color guard. The film sadly won't have a chance to duplicate its Foreign Language win at the Oscars but Huppert's generous, gracious, mic-grabbing speech should stab the hearts (and shoulders) of a few new Academy voters.
Nick: I'm worried that I have to say La La Land for Screenplay, which is too bad, because even the movie's biggest fans don't seem to think that its primary strength is in the writing. But if people love it this much, as they evidently do, then it's a bigger threat than I realized to claim a writing trophy over Manchester, which I assume is otherwise the front-runner in this category.
Dancin Dan: Manchester By The Sea/Kenneth Longergan. The loss of the Screenplay award to La La Land and Best Drama to Moonlight means it's going in as a double underdog. WATCH OUT.
Lynn: Toss-up between Isabelle Huppert and Moonlight, in that Hollywood got a welcome reminder about how awesome they both are. Sure, the critics have been singing that song for a while now, but let's face it, there's probably a good chunk of Oscar voters who are more likely to remember the GG winners than, say, the NSFC. Others might say La La Land got the biggest boost, but I'm concerned about the inevitable backlash.
Murtada: While Ruth Negga didn't take the stage as a winner, she got two "loving" close ups during Meryl Streep's speech and a few words that charted her journey from Addis Ababa to playing Virginian Mildred Loving. Couple that with her smashing red carpet which was a hit on Twitter earlier in the night, and we bet more people now know her name.
Eric: Probably Aaron Taylor-Johnson? He wasn't to be taken too seriously when he was just a nominee, but now as a winner, in an always-weird category, could he sneak in for a nomination?
Kim: Given that the HFPA LOVES Portman, having given her two Globes already, I was totally expecting her to win. I know Huppert has cleaned up with Critics Awards, but winning the Globe over Portman playing Jackie Kennedy feels like major momentum.
Manuel: Huppert, undeniably. Between Verhoeven's win and Isabelle's own, you have to hope enough Oscar voters will catch up with Elle and realize they'd be silly not to nominate such a towering performance.
Steven: I had totally counted Meryl out of the race...until that incredible retrospective and of course her speech. That potent reminder of her talent, success, and power arrived at a crucial moment.
David: Meryl - after that incredible, rousing, precise speech, it's hard to not want to vote for her for something, and where else can Oscar voters look but at Florence Foster Jenkins? Even though I don't like the performance, I can't really blame them.
HOW ABOUT YOU? WHO WAS THE BIGGEST WINNER OF THE NIGHT IN YOUR EYES?
Globe Goofing Four Questions | Best Dressed Men | Best Gowns
Ranking the Presenters | Actors Watching Streep
Jimmy Fallon La La Land Opening | Golden tweeting | Parties and Looks
Emma vs. Isabelle | Ryan & Andrew Kiss-Kiss | "Pink with stars on it"
Meryl & Viola Chit-Chat | Globe Winner List
Reader Comments (46)
I wonder if Aaron Taylor-Johnson and Michaell Shannon will cancell each other out? Has there ever been a case where the supporting actor/actress WINNER at the Globes wasn't nominated by Oscar?
Don't overestimate La La Land's Screenplay chances. Last year, Steve Jobs won and it wasn't even nominated, Ditto for About a Boy (2002) and The People vs Larry Flynt.(1996). No doubt there are also others.
Meryl & Isabelle.
Agreement that Taylor-Johnson gets a massive bump here. He was charming, concise, and made people sit up and notice him when they're about to fill in ballots. He's not winning Oscar, obviously, but I'd dare say he's on more ballots than he would've been 24 hours ago. And in this game, I think that's enough.
Woops. I meant About Schmidt in 2002. In fact, there were rumors at the time that Academy members confused the two titles and nominated the wrong one!
Taylor-Johnson was the biggest surprise. Though the film is love it or hate it, NOCTURNAL ANIMALS is a film people out here in LA won't stop talking about and Focus is doing a great job promoting it and keeping it present in the final days of the nomination race.
I think his win also signals that Mahershala Ali, the perceived front runner, may just have too small a role in MOONLIGHT to be decisive. I think anything could happen in that category.
I think Steven and David have a point. I think this was a real plus for Meryl with incredible timing. We all want to embrace her for that speech. I'm now really concerned for Ms. Bening. I would HATE to see her fall off the nominee list!!
Anyone thinking the Academy might give La La Land the Big 5? La La Land winning EVERYTHING made me feel like Gosling might be more of a contender than we thought, maybe even more than Denzel.
Yes, I think Bening's out of it; I'd say she's dropped to 7th.
Portman, Stone and Huppert feel locked.
Streep, Negga and Adams are fighting for 2 spots.
I fear Adams defaults in over Negga, but Streep just got a yes from everyone in the business. Preaching to the converted, one might say, but the converted are the ones nominating. Streep 2020!
Meryl was undoubtedly the star of the night; everyone is talking about her today. I don't doubt that people are voting for her just to reward "the speech."
1. Ryan Gosling got a bit of a boost, imo, with that fab speech...very unexpected of him to go that route. Usually he is quite shy about talking about his private life, but I thought it was better than Affleck's. And if Casey continues to get negative press, and if La La Land continues to pick up momentum...well, they may feel better about voting for Ryan over Casey.
2. Isabelle Huppert's triumph gives her the winner's aura and much-needed psychological boost. I was dubious about her getting an Oscar nomination after SAG left her off, but now I think she will surge in these final days of voting.
3. I thought Aaron was deserving of his nomination and win...he was terrifying in Nocturnal Animals. I know the movie isn't popular in these parts, but it was my fav of 2016.
I don't think it's surprising the HFPA went for Huppert over Portman, but I think it does greatly increase her chances of being nominated. I wouldn't be surprised if Huppert misses out on a nomination though.
I guess La La Land will sweep, considering it's even winning prizes for its worst aspects like the screenplay.
Streep and Huppert get the biggest boost for nominations, no doubt. La La Land gets the biggest boost for wins.
I'm wondering what all the Film Experience hate over Nocturnal Animals signifies. It has a solid fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes. I haven't seen the film, so cannot comment specifically on its merits or flaws, but it could that this blog -- fabulous as it is (and it is) -- has become more of an echo chamber than it benefits from being. Just a thought.
I really feel like Huppert, much as I've never been a fan, has gotten a real boost from last night.
And I would also say that Jeff Bridges has more steam now -- Ali's performance has proven somewhat vulnerable, and Bridges is in the best position to take advantage.
Also, let's not count out Taraji P Henson for one of those final two Best Actress slots. Hidden Figures is peaking at the right time -- box office, media coverage, goofs at the Globes shining a light on it, etc -- and it looks fabulous. She might stand a better chance than Negga or Adams.
I reallly hope voters have the common sense to nominate Isabelle Huppert. 'Inclusive & Diversity' should also extend to actors/actresses in Foreign FIlms...
Kleghorne: Yes, it's happened a fair few times - though not in recent years. It happened with Katy Jurado in 1952, Oskar Werner in 1965, Richard Attenborough in '66 AND '67, Karen Black in 1974, Richard Benjamin in '75, Katharine Ross in '76... That was the last time (although, of course, Kate Winslet won for The Reader in 2008 and was then nominated for Best Actress for it instead...).
Jason: I had the same thought about Taraji! The movie hit #1 this weekend...quite a feat for her, on top of having the #1 drama on TV. She's on a roll.
Edward L and Kleghorne - in supporting categories, yes, so Taylor-Johnson is far from assured a nomination.
In Leading Actress (Drama)? Only twice in history - one was Winslet in 2008 (who was a contender for the win even before The Reader found its way into Leading). The second was Shirley MacLaine, who was part of a THREE WAY TIE (!!!) Both of the other winners were Oscar nominated but she missed out.
If Huppert misses, it will be a record-breaker...
Streep looks strong so I'm guessing Adams takes the fifth slot unless Hidden Figures or Loving really capture the hearts of voters...
Picture: Needless to say, La La Land gets the most momentum coming off the Globes - and will inevitably face the most backlash in the weeks to come. But probably not enough to really make a difference.
Actor: The only impact the HFPA could have had on this race would have been if they'd gone with someone other than Affleck. As it is, the race has stagnated. Affleck's status remains unchanged - he's the nominal frontrunner, but nominal at best given the controversy which has tainted his candidacy. It can still go either way between him and Washington, although a case can now certainly be made for Gosling (great speech, has paid his dues) as a potential spoiler.
Actress: I was convinced Portman was going to take her second Oscar this year. I don't particularly care for the film or the performance, but the allure of playing/imitating a real life historical figure (celebrity taxidermy, if you will), coupled with the fact that voters are predisposed to favor dark and heavy over sweetness and light, seemed to make her victory all but inevitable. In terms of getting nominated, Huppert is the biggest beneficiary of the evening. In terms of who will win the Oscar, I think the HFPA did Emma Stone a huge favor by stalling (if only perhaps temporarily) her chief rival's momentum.
S Actor: The Taylor-Johnson win feels like an outlier, and not too much should be read into it. It may help him get on a few more ballots that he otherwise would, but a nomination still seems unlikely. Should Ali will win SAG and BAFTA, it more or less settles the question.
S Actress: If an earthquake and/or meteor shower demolishes the Kodak Theater before this Award can be presented, Viola Davis will not win it. That's basically the only scenario I can envision for it not happening.
Director: I could potentially see a Picture/Director split at The Oscars - once the rarest of things, it's becoming more common - but I'd be more inclined to think it likely this year if La La Land had ONE main challenger, as opposed to two. Moonlight and Manchester both have their fierce partisans, and look to be splitting the dissent vote.
Screenplay: I honestly don't know about Original any more. For everyone who's knocked out by Lonergan's script, there seems to be someone else making like Peggy Lee (Is that all there is?) Me, I think it's solid piece of work, but hardly the MOST original screenplay we've encountered this year. If La La Land gets on a roll - and come Oscar night, it could - this is in play. Moonlight, however, wins Adapted walking away.
Huppert and Meryl of course
Noms for both of them will not be surprising at this point.
And Adams is a lock, guys.
Unfortunately this means also a huge boost for Taylor Johnson.
Do you think that Isabelle can be nominated at the BAFTA, but for Things to Come instead of Elle?
Best Actress is still very competitive in terms of nominations and Isabelle & Meryl clearly benefited from last night.
But it looks like Emma Stone for the win and not far behind in the charm sweepstakes is Gosling. he now looks much stronger for the win.
I'm happy for "La La Land" but "Hell and High Water " should have won best original screenplay- also is it me or is the studio down playing the gay angle in "Moonlight" ? I read a news paper article which summarizes the plots as the struggles of young black man affected by the war of drugs ? Yes that is part of the story but the heart is his search for love and acceptance as gay man- is this marketing the film to a wider audience by no mentioning the gay story?
What an exciting year, no one feels like a "sure thing" for the win (in many cases even the nomination!) When does that happen?
Actress - I think that the locks are Stone and Portman, after *THE* speech Streep shoots to the #4 spot and I actually put Huppert at 4... That leaves Adams, and Negga for that last spot and my hunch is that it's Adams (although Negga with all of the magazine covers, and that knockout dress and Streep callout surely raises her profile a bit... doubt she can overtake any of these ladies though). Bening unfortunately feels like 7 or 8 to me at this point, I think she's out.
Actor - I think that Gosling got a bump here to definitely secure his spot, and could potentially be a spoiler if people go all out for the movie. While Affleck has been cleaning up, his appearance, the bad press, and the wonky speech I find uninspiring. While I think he's the "best" for a lot of people, I think there is a long shot that he and Denzel split the "dramatic" votes for best, and Gosling could sneak in as La La Land is clearly really loved by everyone... for me Affleck is the front runner, but I could see Gosling as a dark horse... curious to see if SAG goes to Denzel, that would make it all confusing
Supporting Actor - I think that the Taylor-Johnson win will secure him a nomination. I don't think he was on ANYONES list, but the speech was charming, and he's incredibly handsome and had lovely things to say about his wife in a performance most agree is "good". Supporting Actor is SO wide open, I think whatever minor boost he will get, will be enough to secure him a spot
Supporting Actress - No changes here. I think you definitely have Davis, Harris, Williams as locks. Kidman should be a sure thing, and the fifth spot would be between Octavia and Janelle... Janelle has been in the press a LOT lately and the dress was on lots of the "top" lists, so I would give her the edge at the moment. Oddly enough, although kidman is in my "4" position, she's the one I can see being the surprise snub in this category.. she hasn't been making much of an impact in interviews or the red carpets, doesn't seem as glamorous as usual.
For the other awards, I think that the OBVIOUS love for La La Land will actually help Moonlight or Manchester. My hunch is in some of the awards, people will want to spread out their love, as they know that La La Land will have a great night. I don't see it sweeping at the Oscars.
@Jason Cooper - Nathaniel, Nick, and Joe discussed it on the podcast some weeks ago in detail.
I would be bewildered if anyone who has seen American Honey could swallow Taylor-Johnson's Inside-Actors-Studio caricature of a redneck.
Emma Stone - she was already there, but this pushes her into the favorite to win.
Casey Affleck - same.
Ryan Gosling - he bumps up now to best actor. Charming speech.
Streep and Huppert - This year does not have enough room for everyone who is deserving in the best actress field, but I would be surprised if these two were left out. They seem to be equally adored, appropriately so. Meryl's speech was the moment of the night and became international news.
Aaron Taylor Johnson - I think he has bumped up to best supporting nominee.
Finally, I have to recommend that people go see Hidden Figures. Great and important movie.
The biggest winner was Ryan Gosling. His was the performance to remember from LLL. I previously thought he would barely get in. Now he is closer to being the one who can knock Affleck out as the frontrunner. And that would be just fine with me.
Biggest outrage is certainly LLL winning over Moonlight for Screenplay, and Taylor-Johnson taking an acting prize away from Ali. That was absolute lunacy. But remember, it is the Golden Globes and every winner will be forgotten quickly. Meryl rocked the house with a brilliant speech which will be remembered long after all these awards have faded..
Huppert, Negga, Portman, Stone, Streep. The changing winds.
Despite her great speech, it's a shame that Streep is poised to knock out another strong performance in this year that's an embarrassment of riches. Her performance in FFJ was perfectly serviceable but nothing more.
In Trump's America and where Oscar voting hasn't completely closed yet, even if we think it's because Ali and Bridges split the GG votes, that win for Aaron Taylor-Johnson's Squidbillies impression is a harbinger of the doom that is his potential Oscar nomination.
I was unfortunately fast asleep when the email went out so I couldn't get it in on time. My responses would be Huppert. Not just because she won - and gave a very gracious speech despite probably having a reputation as not caring about awards - but because Leo was the one who did it, but also because the movie itself won. Surely you convince enough people to put the disc in now, right? You'd certainly hope so.
Stone got a big boost, too, since Portman doesn't seem as strong anymore. Her film isn't catching on (sadly) and there just didn't seem to be much excitement for her. Huppert sucked all the energy out of that race, it would seem. I genuinely think people want to see Huppert at the Oscars. I just hope enough of them put her down in order to make it happen. Like, Stone is gonna get in. Use your number one votes for a great cause!
Maybe Acadmey voters will prove Trump's point of how Streep is "overrated" once agin this year with a 20th nomination?
Oscars aside though... what a powerful speech that was spoken from the heart. She took the moment to speak the truth knowing there would be a Trump tweet and backlash from some.
I actually tuned out to most of the wins that night after the speech.
Oscar-boosted: Gosling, Huppert, Streep, the music of La La Land
Oscar-booted: Bening, anyone but Ali from Moonlight, the men of Florence Foster Jenkins
It's a shame that Bening will be booted for what is probably the best performance of her career (ironic, isn't it), but there seems to be a strong consensus for the 5 of Huppert, Stone, Adams, Streep, and Portman. I personally would rank Bening #1 out of all of them from a purely acting perspective, but we know that this is not sometimes how these things work. I can only hope that she can find her way back in next year.
Queen Meryl n La Reine Huppert of cos!
W tt inspiring, heartfelt n best speech o the night, Meryl has all but cemented her well respected n much adored status among her peers. They are not gonna left her out in the cold on nom day. N althot many o us felt tt FFJ is not one o her best works, it is v v well received by the audience n critics.
Huppert did the impossible n stopped Portman's bid for a 2nd win. Her win means that more voters r gonna catch up w Elle n realise wat a complex n multi layered perf she had given, n in turn secure her much needed nom.
I wld say Stone, Huppert, Portman, Streep r in w Adams n Bening jostling for the last spot. Negga's chance o a nom if any will be at the BAFTA
I like Aaron Taylor-Johnson. I've liked him ever since he played Edward Norton as a boy in The Illusionist. I was disappointed when his Marvel character, the Scarlet Witch's brother, was killed off. In Nocturnal Animals, I was interested in the actor's choices I saw him making. Choosing an emotion and committing to it, etc, moving from one emotion to another.
And yet. When Taylor-Johnson stands next to Michael Shannon, well. Shannon's reach goes down to raw primeval depths and extends up to the most delicate transitory gesture of a fleeting thought.
And then there's Amy Adams, whose part is so underwritten as to be hardly there, and yet makes you not even notice that until after. Oh, and she has another movie, which is more appealing, and in which she is great.
So I think that an Oscar bump will go to Shannon and Adams when people revisit Nocturnal Animals to look at Taylor-Johnson.
To say Aaron Taylor-Johnson was this year's Marisa Tomei is an insult to Marisa Tomei. Hoping for a shutout of Nocturnal Animals in the categories the public actually cares about.
Everyone seems to be taking for granted that Portman is an ironclad lock. She may well be. But...
Emma Stone, Isabelle Huppert, Amy Adams and Annette Bening. All great enough to win.
Streep - the legend only grows.
Ruth Negga - a breakthrough and spotlight, courtesy of the legend.
Taraji P, Henson - she's on the outskirts, but make no mistake - her name will be written down on some of those ballots.
Can anyone be said to be an ironclad lock in a year like this?
I'm saying the final five Best Actress nominees will be Huppert, Negga, Portman, Stone, Streep.
I'm betting Amy Adams will be the surprise snub of the morning. She's great, but is anyone really passionate about this performance? I'm sad that Bening's film wasn't released in the summer or early fall. She coulda been a contender...but that late release seems to have sunk her chances.
Do you think we could have a shock nominee in best director? Like Paul Verhoeven or Pablo Larrain? Elle's profile was significantly boost last night by its two wins...could it gather support amongst the more adventurous directors branch and pull off a surprise director nom (it would be sweet relief, particularly since the film has been shortsighted by the foreign film branch).
It was a wonderful joy to see Hacksaw Ridge completely snubbed last night, by the way.
it's funny. the more scenarios i hear people say for best actress the more confusing it is. Every combination seems plausible for different reasons. So...
Josh R -- maybe you have a point on best actress. Are there *any* locks with a race this tight? It's actually so exciting even though it will be heartbreaking since I know I probably can't have both of my favorites :)
Ken -- good reminder on screenplay
Jason -- hmmm. i dont require any of the contributors to feel any way about a particular movie and aside from a handful of New Yorkers we dont all live near each other so i'm guessing it's more coincidence with a polarizing movie than echo chamber. I know Jason gave it some measured props right here so everyone saying we all hate it is exaggerating.
Aaron -- i firmly believe that Pablo Larrain is a possibility. but i keep smacking myself for that because it's probably wishful thinking. a few months back I REALLY thought Verhoeven had a clear shot to be the iconoclast's choice but then feelings about Elle tend to revovle around Huppert rather than him so i know longer think that ccan happen.
the thing i'm really confused about is why Denis Villeneuve isn't a lock for Best Director.
BAFTA nominations just announced. La La Land leads, naturally, but astounded by the number of nominations for Nocturnal Animals (including director, actor (Gyllenhaal), supporting actor (Taylor-Johnson), and adapted screenplay). Could this surprise at Oscar? The film has surprising staying power and is showing up everywhere. Interesting to note that like the Globes, it never quite manages to snag a best picture nomination.
I, Daniel Blake showed up in picture, director, supporting actress, and original screenplay. Probably unlikely to repeat anywhere else but it's terrific that BAFTA acknowledged this acclaimed British film from a master filmmaker instead of more obvious frontrunners.
And is Emily Blunt happening? With this and SAG, she's definitely in the hunt. So damn strange, especially for this film.
Adding to Aaron's BAFTA nominations comment above:
Denzel, not nominated, has never been nominated for a BAFTA (although—bizarrely, to my mind— he was awarded the BAFTA/LA "Stanley Kubrick Britannia Award for Excellence in Film" in 2007).
Nathaniel - A24 is usually a smart studio when it comes to releasing/promoting films but it has totally mishandled "20th Century Women". No wonder Annette Benning isn't getting any traction - no one outside of LA/NY has had a chance to see this film. I won't get to see this until Jan. 20th. They should have released this way sooner or held it until next year.
Re: Bafta nominees - not surprised to see Tom Ford, who is very well liked in UK, get some noms for "Nocturnal Animals". Very pleased to see the nominations for "Arrival", including Best Director for Denis Villeneuve. I'm hoping he gets a well deserved nod from Oscars.
Emily Blunt getting some love from her British peers is appropriate.
Now that Aaron Taylor-Johnson won the Globe and got a BAFTA nomination, I think he's got a stronger case for Oscar.
I hope Moonlight's lack of multiple wins doesn't hurt it, that's worrying me a bit.
Meryl Streep obviously got the biggest boost, and I'm of two minds. First, I liked Florence Foster Jenkins a lot, it's a movie that's easy to undervalue because it's obviously not an art movie, yet it gives the kind of pleasure that Hollywood could crank out practically once a month. I felt GOOD when I left the theater. But on the other hand, Meryl Streep's performance really was just what the movie needed and nothing more. She really didn't do anything she hasn't done before, and done better (think how she shone in dreck like The Iron Lady or The Devil Wears Prada). She's just not in the same class as Natalie Portman or Ruth Negga (haven't seen Bening or Huppert yet). Acting honors really go to Hugh Grant (a revelation) and Simon Helberg (ditto).
LadyEdith, A24 dropped the ball a few years back as well with A Most Violent Year. That one should have easily swept the nominations. But the fact that even Jessica Chastain was snubbed was certainly squarely on the shoulders of an inept studio campaign. Love that terrific movie, so that one still hurts. But they did a great job with Ex Machina last year.