Oscar Chart Updates: Actor & Supp Actor
Friday, September 22, 2017 at 5:30PM 
All sorts of things could yet throw the Best Supporting and Best Lead Actor races into confusion. In a somewhat uncommon development the former is much more crowded than the latter. The shallow pool of viable Lead Actors is very good news for candidates like Timothée Chalamet (someone Oscar might normally resist due to his age) and Jake Gyllenhaal (someone Oscar has resisted for reasons inexplicable to us).
What do you make of the Supporting Actor race in particular? They way it looks now it could be made up almost entirely of character actors with worthy careers who have never won an Oscar and that's a very exciting thing. More exciting if you happen to be a fan of either Michael Stuhlbarg, Sam Rockwell, Richard Jenkins, or Willem Dafoe. I doubt that all four of them will make it all the way to the shortlist but the buzz is currently in their favor.
UPDATED CHARTS
Picture | Director | Lead Actress | Lead Actor | Supporting Actress | Supporting Actor | Animated Feature | Original and Adapted Screenplays
Reader Comments (52)
I like 4 of your S/Actor picks and can see all 4 making it bar Spacey,Jenkins seems a more likely winner to me at this point,they love gay best friends,I think Rylance has entered that phase where the Academy loves you cos your a stage actor who made good in a prestige pic by Spielberg a bit like Dench's non stop noms from 97 - 2006.
re Gyllenhall they know they owe him,12 years after his 1st they'll remedy it with a 2nd,Day Lewis for all the obv reasons,past that i've no idea but JG,DDL AND GO sure seem safe don't they,Oldman wins that's it done.
I don't agree with your current placement of Washington on the second row of possible contenders. He's solid for a nod despite his film garnering lukewarm response. Think about, Washington is never in juggernaut prestige movies that warrant Best Picture nods to correspond with him getting an acting nod. He's in there and your precious Huge Jackman is not.
Just a suggestion to a commenter, but you might want to start your own site? Your biases are annoying (X should never be nominated, Y should always be nominated, Z should be front in line, etc.).
As for supporting actor, I would love to see Willem Dafoe win. That would be awesome.
Rockwell Stuhlbarg Dafoe Jenkins would put me in character actor heaven. Hell, let's throw Michael Shannon in there too!
I get the feeling your going to hate this years Most Acting male winner.
Gary Oldman will win - easy peasy - the Academy is pathetically predictable.
I feel bad for Brian Cox, though - his competing Churchill performance has received many raves, too.
Somewhere Brian Cox is going "fuck you, Gary!"...
TF that's 1 of the above 2 of us 3rtful??
There's NO WAY the Academy is going to pass Alexander Payne and PT Anderson AND Woody Allen in the same year. One of those three is in.
Where have you heard of Michael Stuhlbarg’s supporting role in The Post? What role is he?
I also love that the fact that you have Streep with a lesser chance of a nomination than almost everyone else on earth involved with the project... I am sure they will just skip Meryl over and nominate everyone else...
Jeremy Renner in WIND RIVER should at least be somewhere on your Best Actor page. It's one of the top grossing indie dramas of the year, he's fantastic in it and Weinstein will hopefully drop THE CURRENT WAR now and focus on pushing it for awards.
What’s the deal on You We’re Never Really Here? Is it being released this year or not? I agree with your assessment that the Academy doesn’t like Ramsay’s movies (they snubbed Tilda and it still hurts), but with such a weak year for best actor and Oldman hogging all the buzz, couldn’t Phoenix make it in on passion votes a la Javier Bardem in Biutiful? The Acting Branch really likes Phoenix’s work.
Jamie -- lol. well, she is in the most competitive category. And for all we know the standout in that movie (which no one has seen) could be someone who is not even on the charts at all (like Brie? Coon? etcetera)
Mark -- that depends on who it is. :) if you're talking Oldman I didn't hate his performance at all. But it is huge and hammy
/3rtful -- maybe (people always seem to misunderstand these charts. second tier is very much still in the hunt for one of the five nominations) . But Denzel is not Meryl. They've passed him over several times: American Gangster, Remember the Titans, Great Debaters, Courage Under Fire, Philadelphia, etcetera
luisheirgo -- i know but YOU try to figure Original Screenplay out ;) I can see any combo from that top ten happening. It's incredibly stacked.
That Top 5 in S/Actor feels right though,very Oscary.
@ Mike in Canada
I totally agree with your choices. Especially Rockwell.
Somehow I feel best actor and best actress will be thrilling during the nominations but will be so boring during finding the winners, on the other hand best supporting actor and best supporting actress will be so wild open and be the most thrilling in years in finding the nominees and the winners all the way.
If Gary Goldman will win for sure, then please nominate the likes of Timothee Chalamet, Jake Gyllenhaal and James Franco.
And I just want Sam Rockwell, Richard Jenkins, Willem Dafoe, Micheal Stuhlbarg and Armie Hammer to be co-winners (not even talk about the men from The Post). Like..how can you choose? Best supporting actor is the main thing for me this year.
Jake G still only having one nomination is...reprehensible. Oldman's Churchill may be hammy but I'm completely content with him being an Oscar winner so I'll let it pass.
Nathaniel- LOL... totally agreee... it would totally be stupid to think that the only woman to earn 20 OSCAR NOMINATIONS would ever be the standout of a movie.............
Nathaniel- when was the last time Streep missed a Oscar nomination when her film was released in December for an award qualifying run? Or missed a nomination for playing a real person/ historical figure?
People LOVE to just make Nathaniel put Meryl #1 and move on. If others aren't even given the opportunity to build buzz then they'll never pass her over.
Having said that, I still don't buy Chalamet as a nominee and fully expect a somewhat random name to appear like Damien Bashir. Perhaps Elliot or, gosh, Harry Dean Stanton for LUCKY.
The shade above!
Glenn- I am not asking for #1 but to make Streep seem like she is hard earned for a nomination this year seems a bit odd in a prestige, timely piece with an auteur director that many on this site this have been criticizing her choices for years...
@Jamie
I truly admire your continued love of Streep. This site is quite divided on her talent.
There is no doubt in my mind that she is untouchable as an actress.
There is Streep and then there a all the others.
@Jamie
I truly admire your continued love of Streep. This site is quite divided on her talent.
There is no doubt in my mind that she is untouchable as an actress.
There is Streep and then there a all the others.
Is Armie's really a supporting Rome? Or is this Rooney / Alicia all over again?
I've been wondering about Armie Hammer too. Is he lead or supporting? I haven't heard any definitive answers. From all the reviews, he obviously seems like a co-lead, but we know from history they will likely campaign him as supporting, even though films with two leads of the same gender deserve to compete in the same category (*cough* Carol).
Any chance JAMES FRANCO has an outside shot for THE DISASTER ARTIST?
Nat,
Fyi...Stuhlbarg was repeated at tier 1 & 2
I like to think Jamie Bell will move up to tier 2...heard he's quite an equal match to The Bening
Claran -- it's for two different films (Michael Stuhlbarg). As for Bell, shocked as I am to say this I think he's even better than Bening in Film Stars... (and has the larger role)
Jamie -- Streep might be the only person who never has to "hard earn" the nomination. But that still doesn't mean it's a slam dunk when no one has seen the film -- which has a ton of semi-famous actors in it suggesting a very ensemble movie like Spotlight. I mean this is not a situation like AUGUST OSAGE COUNTY when we know in advance that it's a huge Oscar baity role upon which everything else revolves.
As for the December release that's a good question. The answer is 'THE HOURS' but without doing a ton of research (i think she did have quite a few december releases early in her career) I'm noticing that her films do not often open in December. The only examples since 2000 are The Hours, Into the Woods, and The Iron Lady
I thought that the last 3 Nominations she received were for her rather than any great acting going on,though I liked her in AOC but the 2 last nods 14 and 16 were not so certain.
Let me ask if she goes supporting does she win?
Is James Franco lead or supporting in The Disaster Artist?
For supporting actor, I think Mendelsohn and Shannon (Shape of Water) are definitely contenders.
Rod -- maybe, but having seen both pictures I'd be surprised since neither of them are the MVPs of their films. Shannon, who is playing a rather broad Evil Villain, is far less likely than Jenkins for his film. Mendelsohn could have an easier time with Best Picture coattails if Darkest Hour turns into the frontrunner but he's not in very much of the movie.
I could be wrong but I thought Doubt and August Osage were December releases? Maybe Adaptation?
The Hours is sort of a difficult example with 3 Groundbreaking performances and no one wanting them to compete against each other. A nom for Adaptation was Streep’s consolation prize.
I also think Streep has never missed a nomination for playing a real person ( in which she campaigned for)- not counting Suffragette( a blink and you miss it cameo) or Heartburn
From what I have read- The Post is very focused on Streep’s character and deals with the issues of a woman in charge of a newspaper during a crucial time in our nation’s history. I know aight unseen but I still think that Hanks and Streep are true leads.
On a completely different side note-
Weinstein Company quietly released The Guardian Brothers animation film with Streep, Kidman, and Norton onto Netflix this week. No theatrical release and no promotion.Either it is really bad, they lost money on Leap or they did not want to deal with the casting controversy.
From Stacey Snyder- CEO of 20th Century Fox on The Post
“The Post” is probably the movie that I would say signals the before and after. It was a spec script that went out by a young writer named Liz Hannah who did all the original research on Kay Graham and Ben Bradlee’s involvement with the Washington Post publishing the Pentagon Papers after the New York Times had scooped the story but had been enjoined from further publication by the Nixon administration.
Emma [Watts] and I talked a lot about not only the excitement of the story and how it entertaining it was, but how fitting it was that one of the first movies we might do together would be about women stepping forward. Kay Graham assumed the role of publisher of the Post at the age of 53 after her husband died. She was older and was thrust into this pressure-filled historic situation where she had to either back her editor [Bradlee] or succumb to the pressure of the board which was telling her, ‘don’t do this you could face charges of treason while we’re in the midst of an IPO.’ Tom Hanks read it first, Tom is on a first name basis with Steven [Spielberg] who’s on a first name basis with Meryl [Streep]. It came together really quickly.”
My Oscar wishes today:
Lead Actor
OLDMAN
CHALAMET
HAMMER*
CARELL (BOTS OR LFF)
DAY-LEWIS
S/ Actor
STUHLBARG (CMBYN)
ROCKWELL
MITCHELL
DAFOE
JENKINS
*some part of me says that the Academy will not toletare category fraud.
I get it now. Nathaniel puts Streep in tier 2 so we focus on other players. Then her movie is released and sadly one must be sacrificed. It's the Hunger Games of acting.
As for men, what was the question?
Jamie
If indeed Streep is nominated for The Post, you will not want to read this blog for awhile. I feel there will be a lot of negativity until after the Oscars. Just what I have gleaned in the few months I have been on this site.
I disagree. If she gets nominated it's because the Academy likes her performance and the movie. The negativity is brought by a few people outside the industry who post anonymously and repetitively on blogs. The Oscars are boring without her. Good work is good work. Submit.
Natalie: LOL
I am not worried. I have been a fan of this site since Nathaniel’s beautifully written tribute to Streep’s 60th birthday and the wonderful year of 2006 when the whole site was enraptured with Prairie Home Companion and Devil Wears Prada.
Yes- the site has overall felt a drop in Streep adoration and, at times, really hateful and ugly commentary but this is not my first time at the rodeo. Every year during Oscar campaign season, everyone argues she won’t get the nomination, she gets the nomination,and then people complain, and then the world realigns.
Natalie you needed to be a regular user as some of us have been since about 2001,Nat likes Streep.
Natalie- Agreed. Do not leave the site. Nathaniel’s site is still the best on the internet!
Jamie -- uff. what is happening to my brain. you're right of course about DOUBT and AUGUST.
Natalie -- i love Streep. I'm just really tired of the ease with which she gets nominated even when people aren't that particularly enthused about a given performance. I find it's very unfair to other actors who might be shut out in their best work ever just to give Streep yet another. I have no objection at all to her being nominated when she's great. The excessive nominations taints her Oscar record which should still be a huge one of course because she's often brilliant.But the truth is there are only 5 slots in any given year and that is not very many so essentially what people are saying is that in all the performances in a given year not only is Streep always in the top 10 when she chooses to work at all but she's top five! Every time! And that's insane given that there are hundreds of movies made every year and Streep is not the only actress who is touched by the gods when it comes to talent.
in my world she'd have 10-12 nominations with 4 wins (still probably the best record ever) with a couple of near misses for nominations -- for example i think she's brilliant in The Hours but I have her at #6 that year. *sniffle*
I'd probably go like so...
1978 The Deer Hunter (need to see a few more films from this year, still to be sure)
1979 Kramer (WIN)
1982 Sophie's Choice (WIN)
1983 Silkwood (WIN)
1985 Out of Africa OR Plenty (want to rewatch a couple films, though when it comes to this year)
1987 Ironweed
1988 A Cry in the Dark
1990 Postcards from the Edge
1995 Bridges of Madison County
2002 Adaptation
2006 Prada (WIN) / Prairie Home Companion
Thank you all for the comments. I love Nat's commentaries and agree with him most of the time. I am not a Streep nut ( but she is one of my favorites ).
I intend to stay reading this blog site. I am too sensitive and I hate when people use the word hate about an actor and their performances. You can dislike it.. oh, well, you get my drift!!!
Stronger did not do well at the specialty box office this weekend, especially relative to Battle of the Sexes and Victoria and Abdul, the other awards-hopeful openings. I have to doubt Gyllenhaal's Oscar hopes when he's competing with Denzel (granted, in a weak movie, but one that will probably perform financially), the Last Flag Flying guys (they like Cranston, and I have a feeling people are underestimating this film), and Hanks (yeah, they've passed him over, but eventually they will need to nominate him again).
Is Lean on Pete coming out this year or next cause Charlie Plummer slayed me in that film. I think I cried like six times. Of course festival fatigue was setting in. I would love Timothee Chalamet to happen. If it takes a weak year for him to do so - then so be it.
I saw Call Me By Your Name twice. The first time I thought Armie was supporting but the second time I thought lead. Screen time wise he seems lead. Though he isn't in every scene so you could put him in either. However exposition wise he is a supporting character. The story is about Elio's sexual awakening / coming of age so he's the lead character.
Thanks for including Charlie Plummer and Harris Dickinson as possibilities. I know it won't happen but I thought the guys of Beats Per Minute were great too.
I also loved Michael Shannon in Shape of Water.
At this point everything is pretty much up in the air , so we can simply have a wish list, mine- ACTOR- Gyllenhaal- Jackman-Chalamet- Phoenix are the only ones I`d really like to see in that list so far, think Oldman is way too safe which translates into boring ( remember when Day Lewis won for Lincoln ? ) Washinghton is such a loud actor, with him seems like ACT HARDER, ACT HARDER, and the Academy doesn`t owe a thing to Hanks. Garfield looks like he`s doing his best Redmayne impersonation , but if he got nominated for Hacksaw Ridge , anything can happen. ACTRESS- Hawkins-McDormand-Winslet-Bening-Kruger would be dreamy , although I`d really love to see Chastain in the conversation. Streep doesn`t look like a contender ( but , hey, remember when she was nominated for FFJ , Into the Woods, Julie & Julia, One True Thing and Music of the Heart ? So...it`s just foolish to bet against her, the woman is a force of nature), Stone , well it is already bad enough that she has one win for La La Land ( really? Natalie Portman, someone?) , Lawrence falls in the same category as Stone, pluys she`s overnominated. SUPPORTING- Hammer-Brown-Elba ( just cause I love them and they are really great actors) Stuhlbarg seems a delicious fresh choice and as much as Dafoe is a hit or miss it would be nice to see him there. As for the ladies, I have too much love for this category, Hunter-Janney- Scott Thomas and Pfeiffer , wow that looks like a fantastic line-up, add Williams and I`d be ecstatic.