Oscar Charts!
Saturday, December 22, 2018 at 7:16PM 
A tip of the hat to you. Just letting you know that most of the Oscar charts have all been updated.
This week sees gains for Stan & Ollie (especially all things John C Reilly and that wonderful makeup job to make him more Laurel-like), Ready Player One and The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (given their multiple finalist list bids), A Quiet Place (given that it's still campaigning and got that absurd "supporting" actress nomination at SAG), and Bohemian Rhapsody all over the place (because, 'Facts are Facts America,' sometimes massive popularity makes quality a complete non-issue!)
Check 'em out, won't you? They're updated
INDEX | PICTURE
DIRECTOR | ACTRESS | ACTOR |
SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS |
SCREENPLAYS | FOREIGN FILM
VISUAL | SOUND | ANIMATION / DOC
Reader Comments (38)
Stan & Ollie looks great; you would think it would have gotten more attention and awards traction if it was released earlier in the year instead of the late December glut.
Here's hoping for a surpise Oscar nomination for the underrated John C. Reilly!
To think that Claire Foy was a lock two weeks ago for her excellent performance in First Man.
I see you're not buying Blunt's double dip at SAG. Wish you were right but I can't get it out of my head. Terrifies me.
Correction: John C. Reilly's makeup makes him look moe Hardy-like.
Claire Foy will be forgotten about come Oscar time folks. Sorry to disappoint you guys. Sub in Kidman boy Boy Erased instead
Wouldn’t MARY POPPINS RETURNS automatically go Adapted?
I don’t see Suspiria making the final line up, either, but it very much falls under a most makeup kind of nominee. The prosthetic and practical effects work is sensational. It’s the kind of makeup that probably would have won in the 80s. We just haven’t had a similar nominee since The Wolfman remake won.
It’s really going to come down to how much Suspiria actually resonates with voters. The release schedule was pretty weird but it’s been playing steadily in LA and I have to assume Amazon is being liberal with the screeners. The makeup footage they’ve released is really impressive, too, and those reels definitely influence voting.
It's hard to say with the changes to Phase II of the Foreign Language selection process, but I kinda think Burning will get in. It has the buzz and the committee that chooses the nominees has proven to be more adventurous in its picks than the FL body at large.
I'm predicting Roma, Cold War, Shoplifters, Capernaum, and Burning, which would be possibly the greatest group of nominees in the history of the category.
Can you give us your predictions for the shorts when you have a moment please?
A Star Is Born is the Best Picture frontrunner, and as such, it seems odd not to predict it for Best Adapted Screenplay. The Departed won Best Adapted Screenplay and it was a remake, so being a remake won't prevent the screenwriting branch from nominating it.
I’m not as convinced as you are about all those supporting actor locks. Is there any enthusiasm for Driver? Did CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME ever really take off outside New York film circles enough for Grant to get in? I’m hopeful, but I don’t know.
Meanwhile, I think BLACK PANTHER is going to do so well on nomination morning that I am changing Michael B Jordan to solidly “in” now. And I think this category can get one or even two more surprises beyond Jordan. Like the 2012 best director race.
Ahhh... This feels like Christmas - unwrapping all categories ...
I still think John David Washington is getting nominated. It feels so much like both Daniel Kaluuya in "Get Out" and Jeremy Renner in "The Hurt Locker" - relatively unknown actor in early-in-the-year movie that gets eventually nominated for BP based on critical love building over months, and despite our doubts, the actor is nominated for precursors, and what seemed impossible even 2 months ago comes true.
I think it's going to happen, I'll be interested to see who he will displace.
This movie looks awesome. 💛💙❤️💜
The 5th spot is Supp Actress will come from a film they really liked so yes I feel it's Blunt or Cardellini,Supp Actor 5th spot is also coming from a film they love so Rockwell or Jordan.
If the Academy decided for
Cuarón - Lanthimos - Lee (not my vote) - Granik - Jenkins in directing
Eight Grade - First Reformed - The Favourite - ROMA - Shoplifters/ Tully / You were never... in O. Screenplay
If Beale... - Blackkklasman (not my vote) - Can you ever forgive me? - Leave no Trace - Burning / Suspiria in A. Screenplay
ROMA - Capernaum - Burning - Shoplifters - Birds of Pasage / Ayka in Foreign Film
Colman - Close - McCarthy - Aparicio - Gaga (not my vote) - Théron in Actress
Stone - Weisz - King - Adams - Ando / Swinton in S. Actress
Nivola - Ali - Carell - Rockwell - Pryce in S. Actor
Bale - Dafoe - Mortensen - Cooper - Gosling / Washington in Actor
Lady Gaga - Dolly Parton - Kendrick Lamar - Lin Manuel - Thon Yorke in Song
I will be a lot of happy!
I love how unsettled all the acting categories feel this year. Beyond The top 3 in each category, it feels like anything is really possible. I'm a little surprised the number of locks you have in supporting actor vs. supporting actress. Do you really consider Adam Driver's place cemented but think Emma Stone, Rachel Weisz, and Amy Adams are on shakier ground? I also think you are betting to hard on Foy. I absolutely LOVED 'First Man' but I think it's awards prospects are dead at this point beyond technical categories.
I was so sure about Supporting Actress but SAG completely confused me. A missed SAG nod is a big deal. I still think Regina's winning but I can't say I'm 100% sure she gets in anymore, and even if she does, that snub hurts. If she doesn't... does Adams' overdue factor really win out? I can't imagine The Favourite ladies winning so if they make it in with Adams and King isn't there - it really could go to a random person who lands a final slot. Crazy.
What are the chances of one of the BLACK PANTHER ladies getting in for a surprise Supporting Actress nod?
David: slim to none. They will siphon votes from each other.
That actress list does seem set...such a great year for Actresses. Really surprised Roberts hasn't gotten more (any?) traction. And I will say it til I am blue in the face : Theron gave my favorite performance of the year. That movie will age beautifully.
I do wonder a bit about Blunt. It feels as though her presumed nomination was conditioned on the idea that MPR would be a monster hit. It's opened decently, but it doesn't seem to be a blockbuster, and the film's reviews haven't been great (it's at 65 on metacritic, below the films of the other four BA frontrunners). It feels like there's an opening for someone else. I would assume that would be Collette, but who knows? The field is disparate.
It's also interesting that Mary, Queen of Scots is outearning The Favourite, in the same number of theaters.
Gosh, I’m almost starting to think Weisz could win a second one. I still think King wins, but the SAG snub is difficult to ignore. And critics have not been kind to VICE.
I hope Foy isn’t nominated.
Suzanne agreed,WOM was hot on it in early December then the reviews came in and Blunt received a lot of neg ones in the UK,so maybe she gets the 5th Supp Actress slot and someone else in Best Actress like Kidman,Roberts or Aparizio but hoping it's Toni Collette.
Not surprised The Favourite is already struggling. Everyone I know - myself included - has found that movie weird and off putting.
Elsie Fisher feels like she's getting in. And Toni Collette too. Don't ask me why. I do think there's gonna be a big shock in Best Actress.
I am pleased that so far this year is turning out to be a bit more unpredictable than previous boring years - especially in Supp. Actress.
I know Roma is excellent and artistically masterful and everything but my God is that film boring. I have no doubt it was me and I am a philistine but I think it might just be a 'tad' overrated.
I’m predicting a Lady Gaga snub for the Actress category.
Where did you get that photograph of Hugh Grant, Nathaniel?
If Margot Robbie gets a BAFTA nomination, I think she could sneak into supporting actress, likely replacing Foy.
You Were Never Really Here is based on a novel.
I could see Gaga missing, or maybe winning if nominated. She's very good but I don't think quite worthy. I think Cooper will miss in Best Director, but could win Best Actor (great performance).
I'm sorry to everyone, but Elle Fisher is very good and also not a good pick. McKenzie, for example, is miles and miles and miles, and also miles away. That's an "Oscar-worthy" performance.
Is Nicole Kidman really going to be snubbed for both Best Acteess and Best Supporting Actress?
If not, which one is she more likely to get in?
BlueMoon-I think she has more room in Supporting Actress (Best Actress feels really full, whereas the Foy nomination is on shaky ground). My NGNG going into the Oscars is that Michelle Yeoh sneaks in at the last minute. People seem to adore that movie, she's a longtime star without a nomination, and Foy's position seems to be slipping. Plus, there's always at least one actor who gets in without a SAG or Globe nomination for Oscar-Yeoh fits that bill.
Here's my call:
Picture:
1. A Star is Born (Lock)
2. Roma (Lock) (7-8 nominations)
3. Black Panther (Lock) (Any of these top three could win Picture) (8-10 nominations)
4. Black KkKlansman (Lock) (5 nominations)
5. Green Book (3-5 nominations)
6. The Favourite (9 nominations)
7. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (Yes, I am going this far. The response has basically been ecstatic, and it's NEW.) (4 nominations: Picture, Animated Feature, Adapted Screenplay and Editing.)
8. Vice (5 nominations)
Director:
1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
2. Spike Lee, Black KkKlansman
3. Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
4. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
5. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther
(alt: Peter Farrelly, Green Book)
Actor:
1. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (Lock)
2. Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born (Lock)
3. Christian Bale, Vice (This is assembled in "likelihood to win" order. In nerd terms, this race is Aragorn v. Rocket Racoon v. Wait, this Batman's already won.) (Lock)
4. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
5. John David Washington, Black KkKlansman
(alt: Ethan Hawke, First Reformed. Yes, even though he's better than the entire rest of the field, I'd sadly guess he's the alt.)
Actress:
1. Glenn Close, The Wife (Lock)
2. Lady Gaga, A Star is Born (Lock)
3. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (Lock)
4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
5. Toni Colette, Hereditary
(alts: Emily Blunt, Yalitza Aparicio)
Supporting Actor:
1. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (lock)
2. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (Lock)
3. Sam Elliot, A Star is Born
4. Adam Driver, Black KkKlansman
5. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
(alts: Sam Rockwell, Michael B. Jordan, Andy Serkis, Winston Duke) (Yeah, I'm one of those guys kind of confused about how B. Jordan got ALL the buzz over a supporting actor nod for Black Panther. Serkis and Duke are at least as good, if not better, so if someone comes completely out of nowhere, I'd expect those two over Carell or Kaluuya.)
Supporting Actress:
1. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (Fraud Alert) (Lock)
2. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (Lock)
3. Amy Adams, Vice (Lock)
4. Emma Stone, The Favourite (Fraud Alert)
5. Thomasin McKenzie, Leave No Trace (Fraud Alert)
(alts: Claire Foy, Nicole Kidman, Margot Robbie)
Original Screenplay:
1. First Reformed (Lock) (The most obviously "writerly" script of the year, winning most of the prizes.)
2. The Favourite (Lock)
3. Roma
4. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
5. Vice
(alt: Green Book)
Adapted Screenplay:
1. Black KkKlansman
2. If Beale Street Could Talk
3. Can You Ever Forgive Me?
4. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
5. Leave No Trace
(alts: The Death of Stalin, Black Panther, Crazy. Rich Asians)
Editing:
Decided against detailing who gets nominated in what likelihood for editing, sorry I didn't erase that line. But, yeah, I'd definitely call Into the Spider-Verse a likely call there, as the flashiest edited movie of the year.
Its such a pleasure to read volvagia’s predictions
Mary Poppins Returns is great. It really captures what was so fun about the Julie Andrews film. Rob Marshall, Colleen Atwood, Emily Blunt should all be nominated. Musicals are so hard to do well, and this was well done front to back. It's definitely a kids classic and beautiful to watch.
Sorry, meant Sandy Powell. Fantastic work.
I know critics can't be the full spectrum but considering Gaga (bonus to her), Colman and McCarthy are winning awards while AW favorites Glenn Close and Nicole Kidman are being snubbed left and right. God help people here if Gaga or McCarthy starts the sweep with the GG win as Actress.
Neither Serkis nor Duke is nearly as good as Jordan in the film. It's a decent film that he totally elevates and I agree with Nathaniel that he's the single best thing in the film.