April Foolish Predictions: Best Actress !
Monday, April 30, 2018 at 1:33PM by Nathaniel R
Yes, we (currently) think Glenn Close will win the next Best Actress Oscar. Yes, there are multiple reasons why that might not happen but for now we're predicting that it shall. At long last! A number of elements are there to help make that happen on paper, including (and this is no small detail) a fine role that doubles as a nifty meta commentary about Glenn Close's own Oscar history (and more largely the plight of accomplished aging women who gone unrecognized whiles others are fêted). There are things that could derail this prediction of course: an undeniable event performance (think a Monster or a Blue Jasmine though those never make themselves clear until a film is screened) or considerable career momentum (Saoirse Ronan?) or 'welcome to the big leagues' fever since Oscar loves a young leading lady (Kiki Layne?). But those are what-if scenarios just like Close winning.
Even if you take Glenn Close as a done deal for a nomination -- which of course you shouldn't since it's nothing is certain this early on -- it still looks like a good year for leading women nonetheless.
Eight questions to consider for the comments after the jump...
- Will Saoirse Ronan's recent very popular nominations make her Mary Queen of Scots role a slam dunk or does Oscar's arguable turn away from more traditional Oscar bait mean that this historical costume drama, which has been filmed multiple times, would have to be truly superb to make an impact?
- Will Meryl Streep find a surprise role that films quickly enough to be released in December and take up 1/5th of the category again as is her prerogative?
- Are they done with Julianne Moore after her win (they sometimes like to move on no matter how great you are after a career-style win) or will Gloria delight them?
- Viola Davis is headlining what sounds on paper like a true ensemble film -- will Widows surprise us and prove a better leading showcase than we're expecting given the ensemble-style synopsis?
- If Lady Gaga is acclaimed in A Star is Born will Oscar get fussy about a famous musician suddenly nudging herself into movies (as they did with Madonna and Courtney Love) or embrace her with enthusiasm (as they did with Diana Ross and Bette Midler)
- Can Mary Poppins Returns conjure even half the magic as Mary Poppins --and half is really all it would require if you ask us since Mary Poppins had more than enough -- can Emily Blunt FINALLY get an Oscar nod? She deserved one twelve whole years ago (Devil Wears Prada) and has since been firmly inside the awards conversation at least twice (The Girl on the Train and Young Victoria) but she's still waiting on the first invitation to the ball.
- If an actress in a lower profile less typically Oscar-bound film (i.e. in terms of genre or budget or mood) musters up considerable "Nominate Her!" enthusiasm which of these will it be: Gyllenhaal, Knightley, Winstead, Collette, Pfeiffer?
- If we held another Actress Psychic contest would you play along... and what type of award would you want the winner to receive?
INVESTIGATE THE CHART. What do you think might happen?
Previous April Foolish Articles
Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Costume Design, Cinematography, Original Score, Screenplays, Animated Features, and the Prediction Charts
Reader Comments (42)
I am gonna bang the drum loud for Mary Elizabeth Winstead to happen for All About Nina. Having seen her performance at Tribeca, I think she is an absolute tour de force.
Also, while your predictions seem pretty on point, one name I would throw in is Carey Mulligan in Wildlife. She's been winning "career-best performance" raves and she hasn't been nominated since An Education. Maybe this could be it.
I would 100% do the contest, and honestly would do it just for bragging rights.
Though perhaps the greatest gift of all would be letting the victor be one of the panelists for that year's Supporting Actress Smackdown? :)
Your nº2 made me laugh because I would totally be up to kidnapping her in a Cecil B. DeMented way.
I think Pfeiffer will have a stronger shot with Ant Man and Maleficient 2.
You list Rachel Weisz in Disobedience, but not Rachel McAdams? I feel like the reviews have all been highlighting McAdams...
Mary Poppins 2 and Mary Queen of Scots XVI are going to suck.
Mean Susie -- Totally! She's got the National Film Critics award in the bag!
Best Actress!
I've been looking forward to this! I also agree on the most part, especially about Penelope coming back.
I do think you're underestimating Cate though.
I also think you're underestimating Cate, and potentially Judi Dench, because Red Joan sounds different from her usual fare, and they love her. And I really don't see it happening for Emily Blunt. She'll get nominated someday, but the bloom is off the rose when it comes to Rob Marshall's musicals.
I also think the trailer to The Wife is bad - I would never see this film if I didn't feel I "had to" because it were an awards contender. It might very well tank this summer (even in indie film terms) and leave Close out of the running.
It can be just me but I think you guys are giving way too much credit for MARY POPPINS RETURNS , I do looove EMILY BLUNT but if she couldn`t make the cut for her phenomenal turns is The Devil wears Prada , Sicario and The Girl on the Train ( weak film, great performance) really don`t think the Academy would go for MPR, she could be nominated for A Quiet Place though...MARY ELIZABETH WINSTEAD is indeed so underrated, she`s constantly effective in just about EVERYTHING she does , would love to see her getting a nod. RACHEL WEISZ for DISOBEDIENCE would be a delight since she`s amazingly talented and Oscar owes her a second nod ( the snub for The Deep Blue Sea still hurts). And you know how I know GLENN CLOSE is a great actress? Because she looks like my great-grand uncle and still makes me believe that she`s a pschyo bombshell in Fatal Attraction and she should have already won for her elegant, rich and wonderful in her comic delicacy turn in Dangerous Liaisons...so fingers crossed for THE WIFE. I`d love to see MICHELLE PFEIFFER for her tour de force in WHERE IS KYRA , KEIRA KNIGHTLEY for COLETTE ( let the Academy make up for snubbing her for Atonement) and CAREY MULLIGAN for WILDLIFE ,as again, totally snubbed , not even in the conversation actually , for Shame and Mudbound. Wish thinking - SIENNA MILLER and her gamely tremulous distraught layers of hidden aggression and madness in THE PRIVATE LIFE OF A MODERN WOMAN.
They've already had test screenings for Widows and it's basically the Viola Davis Show. She would at least be in my top 5.
Nat: Madonna is the only POP star (Sinatra, Burl Ives, Barbra Streisand, Diana Ross, Bette Midler, Cher) that the Academy hasn't gone in for when they have something juicy. Considering Gaga is pop? That's a 6/7 chance if the movie isn't complete crap. As far as including Courtney Love in the comparison? Rock stars are a different argument than pop stars. Not all musicians are equal in consideration of Academy history and likelihood.
Wow—quite an optimal race for Glenn Close. The top 20 is half previous winners, and lots of longshots for one reason or another. Putting Blunt and Gaga in the top seven doesn't inspire confidence about the strength of the field.
Also, I suspect our culture has grown a bit too cynical for Gaga to pull a Cher—no matter how good she is in the film. McCarthy's movie looks right on the money so I'd put her in the top tier. I have little hope for Mary Poppins 2.
I wish, hope and pray with all my heart that Glenn Close finally wins! I've been dreaming of her winning ever since i was 13 years old and saw her in Dangerous Liaisons. Forgive me for being emotional but i considerthis woman one of the thespians who made me want to become an actor. She is the Queen of the Overdue actresses, and though -judging by the trailer - The Wife doesn't seem like a great film , it feels she's really special in it and that final shot is everything.
1. I don't think Mary Queen of Scots will go further from the inevitable costume design- production design noms.
2. No Meryl this year.
3. Not sure yet about Julianne Moore
4.Widows really looks like an ensembe film , but so was The Help
5.The Gaga thing is pure publicity to me. I feel she's closer to a Razzie than an Oscar
6. I don't think Mary Poppins Returns will have the same fate as Mary Poppins. Ditto for the wonderful Blunt
7. I would have loved to say Collette or Pfeiffer, but i'm leaning more towards Knightley (or maybe Gyllenhaal)
8.YES , YES AND YES!!!!
I don't want to say Close 'cos I don't want to jinx her,I'm feeling the time has come for a Black Lead Actress to win again so it would be nice if Palmer could do it,Ronan is definitely the new Kate Winslet,there's only 1 Streep.
I feel Blunt is a slam dunk GG winner to,I have the strongest feeling for the film across the board,they just can't mess this up and Blunt should've won 12 years ago never mind just being nominated.
Passion votes can get you the nomination so I feel it'll be Collette,Gylllenhaal or Pfeiffer for that type of slot.
Judi Dench should never be counted out,she's never won Lead and she is getting older and has eye ailments.
Theron won't be in even f she's gr8 the May opening sort of kills it.
Moore won't be able match to the original unfortunately.
I smell Miss Sloane/Molly's Game in the Felicity Jones film
McCarthy's film looks so boring and drab.
Thompson is left out too despite being overdue another nom.
Blanchett may go supporting.
I don't see Cruz happening at all
Lady Gaga "no nomination but you can sing for us"
Rooting for two of the five Actress nominees from 2011.
This could just be my wishful thinking but I think—hope, pray!—you're underestimating Toni Collette's chances. The reviews were effusive, A24 is on the ball and Oscar seems to be warming to horror. If Daniel Kaluuya could do it, stands to reason Collette can, too.
This is the weakest acting category.
This feels like a sad meh year. I don't think Michelle or Meryl will be nominated for cameo appearances in very commercial films.
Maybe Emily Blunt if the film lands? An international disaster would be de alarmed if Ga Ga won over Glenn.
At this point, why not Charlize and Rachel?
Considering that you spent all last year proclaiming that Annette Bening was Finally going to win for FSDDILiverpool, I’m not holding my breath for Glenn Close victory yet. Need to see more, but the trailer didn’t shout Winner...
Should Mary Kay Place from Diane be one of the contenders?
Current prediction:
Cate Blanchett, Where'd You Go, Bernadette?
Viola Davis, Widows
Kiki Layne, If Beale Street Could Talk
Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots
Emma Stone, The Favourite
ALL ABOUT GLENN'S OSCAR
Blunt was also in the conversation for Into the Woods - would love Glenn to win but more concerned about Emily finally getting a nomination! Would she be the biggest working actress without a nom?
I'm totally down for a best actress psychic revival!
Morgan: Emily and Scarlett.
Yes they’ve had test screenings of Widows and sounds like it’s a hit, but Viola did receive most of the praise.
Beale Street, I’m not too sure, it’s about a false accusation of rape with the MeToo/Timesup movement, it may receive some backlash. Also Regina Kings role is much more juicier than Kiki’s.
I stand by my belief that Emily Blunt should and will be campaigned as supporting for A Quiet Place. It’s truly an ensemble film and gets her campaign out of the way of the Disney marketing juggernaut. It’s a phenomenal performance in a movie that was a hit commercially and critically, and I think she would absolutely deserve to be in the conversation, especially if Mary Poppins doesn’t pan out
All of these predictions are hilarious (no offense to anyone). It's the studios that nominate by campaigning with dough as well as media hype. Then fellow actors/actresses follow suit. Sure there are surprises, but it's usually politically driven. It's like an avalanche that grows with momentum. Sometimes the best performance wins, other times not so much as we have seen many times over. We know not always the best wins in such a subjective decision when it comes to the top tier of performances.
So, I hope Glenn Close can get the media push behind her. The trailer for The Wife was iffy, but hopefully critics will respond (as they did last fall) and begin the steam roll if she truly deserves to be in the running. At that point, it's a matter of diligent and SMART campaigning.
I dream of another gonzo Oscar campaign (like Melissa Leo’s for The Fighter), but instead of “Consider” it shall be something even more bananas such as “So Close” for The Wife. (Hey, it worked in 2010-11.)
@Mike in Canada
And Scarlett is going to star the upcoming Noah Baumbach comedy-drama! Maybe she has a shot! [hoping his upcoming movie is a Frances Ha meets The Squid and the Whale]. She's so OVERDUE for a first nom (Ghost World, Lost In Translation, Girl With Pearl Earring, Match Point, Don Jon, Her and Under the Skin)
It's hilarious that Scarlett Johansson won a damn Tony before her first Oscar nomination. I'm not even mad at it—that's some funny shit. How many Academy Award winners will never get in spitting distance of a Tony?
Also—Johansson, Pfeiffer, Bening, Law, Gyllenhaal, Fiennes and Weaver are strong supporting evidence for why Oscar is a poor man's BAFTA. When Oscar and BAFTA disagree you know where to find the better performance.
Jack for Streep, you beat me with Mary Kay Place! I think she’ll be the indie nominee plus she’s been great in supporting roles in TV (Big Love, Lady Dynamite), so I’m rooting for her.
However, I’m all about Close! It’s a travesty she’s hasn’t won. I think if Julianne Moore can win for such a bland movie (even though her performance is good to win), Close should start building her momentum and run a smart campaign to charm to an undeniable win.
I wish and pray this is finally Glenn's year.
besides her, I can totally see two black actresses getting nominated, Viola Davis and Kiki Layne, with Davis as a major threat to Glenn's win.
Blunt, unfortunatelly, will not happen, unless the movie is an undeniable success both critically and commercially. And even if A Star s Born works, i don't see Academy voters fall for Gaga.
I think Julianne Moore will surprise everyone with a very different and personal take on the Paulina Garcia role. Lelio is a truly gifted women's director.
I'm not sold on the Can You Ever Forgive Me? trailer, but it will be nice to see McCarthy recognized for a dramatic role.
As much as I love the idea of Michelle Pfeiffer's long delayed fourth nomination, her movie is too small and it's earning nothing at the box office. It wll take a miracle if anyone will remember it at the end of the year. Fingers crossed.
Rachel Weisz and Charlize Theron are SOOO deserving for another nomination. And won't it be refreshing to see some underrated and underused great actresses like Maggie Gyllenhaal or Tony Collette back in the conversation?
Felicity Jones is so bland for me I don't see the reason of her success, But her movie will be talked a lot.
I like Saoirse very much, she is so special and talented, but I wish she'll stay out this year, just like it happened for Emma Stone with Battle of Sexes. It bothers me when someone is nominated for every single pertormance.
And speaking of Emma Stone, yes, The Favourite sounds like one of the most intriguing project of the year. I feel some Dangerous Liasons vibes here, and can't wait to see what Lanthimos, Stone, Weisz and Colman have in store for us. I hope the movie will be screened in Venice.
I think Blanchett will go supporting,
Dench is always a threat, but I loved her only in Notes on a Scandal; she aces in moral ambiguity territory and subtle ferocity, so maybe this will be a very juicy role. Nonetheless Iwill prefer to see back Emma Thompson, but I don't think her movie will catch much attention.
By the way, I can't believe Streep is FINALLY out of the game this year. I think her last truly undeniable masterpieces were The Hours and Prada.
Go Glenn!
"Oscar is a poor man's BAFTA" made me GUFFAW
Love for Glenn Close to win. I always wonder every year if a movie of hers will gain traction with the voters, but as someone pointed out, it is all about smart campaigning -- the best performances are sometimes buried because of a lack of visible distribution and will only get an afterlife if discussed in academic circles or with cult-movie fanatics who love to dig up unheralded performances.
But yeah, Glenn Close should win in next year's Oscars. It would be quite dramatic if she wins even if she is not quite known for milking the moment unlike others. But a great performance and a strong and smart publicity campaign for The Wife are all what it takes for her to win the award she deserved for Dangerous Liaisons, Reversal of Fortune, Fatal Attraction, The World According to Garp and her star turn in the much-reviled The House of the Spirits -- I mean that confession booth scene in the latter film is unforgettable.
Excited to see performances from Toni Collette, Michelle Pfeiffer, Mary Elizabeth Winstead, and Disobedience and If Beale Street Could Talk..
Also excited for Widows. Will Neil Jordan's own The Widow be out by year's end and will Isabelle Huppert's role be huge or will it be equal to the screen time of Chloe Grace Moretz's?
Let’s be real. Streep’s last classic film was The Post. Why do people try to limit her achievements. I face similar resistance because I am so good.
This year will be a long slow march to Glenn Close finally winning her Oscar.
"Blanchett goes supporting" my ass, you people are ridiculous :D
"Carol" is a book about Ms Belivet; "Carol" is a movie that snatched Blanchett a Best Actress nomination.
This was supposed to be released in May and they pushed to October cos:
1) Cate Blanchett Oscar Star Power heavyweight directed by the legendary Linklater
2) It actually smells of Oscar and Best Actress
@Owl ... Thank you for mentioning Close's turn in House of the Spirits, especially the confession booth scene. She WAS amazing. You could feel her tension, lusting, heartache – all through her vocal intonations cemented by a steely gaze. THAT was worth a nomination alone.
I also think her monologue in the plot–holed–riddled Stepford Wives was the best part of that movie. She is the monologue queen since she can change emotions on the drop of a dime. However, if she can win for The Wife, I hope she is actually deserving, meaning another role out there isn't that much more difficult to convey.
@ Mike -- I hear you. I remember Close's monologue in The Stepford Wives and I agree. Also, her campy turns in Altman's Cookie's Fortune and Mary Reilly are also illuminating examples how this actress can convey volumes in subtle ways. Her Mrs Faraday in Mary Reilly was delightfully camp and she seems to be the only one having fun in that film that took itself a bit way too seriously. Plus it was glum colors all around except for Mrs Faraday: both in hideous costumes and in language.
Hmmm. Gary Oldman presents an Oscar to Glenn Close.
AIR FORCE ONE reunion!
I always love these early predictions. I fear that The Wife might not have a broad enough appeal to squeak in. Something like Still Alice had an absorbing analysis of Alzheimer’s disease—something that is at least tangentially experienced by so many people.
However, I do agree with Nathaniel’s theory that Kiki Layne will be a breakout star. You can tell just by looking at that picture of her.