Thursday
Apr112019
April Foolish Predictions #7: Screenplay, Director, and Best Picture
Thursday, April 11, 2019 at 9:30PM 
Taika Waitita directing Scarlett Johansson on the set of "JoJo Rabbit"
Our annual way-too-early Oscar predictions are nearing completion! Only lead actor, and both actress categories left to go. Today the big one BEST PICTURE, as well as both screenplay races, and the Best Director contest. The latter looks really exciting (at least at this way-too-early juncture) because the competition appears to be more gender-balanced than usual with a handful of female directors in the mix. Imagine that! Of course the year might not play out like that once the films are screened, but here's hoping the female directed pictures deliver in a can't-be-denied kind of way.
Reader Comments (12)
Directing:Love if happens...
MARIELLE HELLER
DEE REES
CHLOE ZHAO
MARTIN SCORSESE
JAMES GRAY
Rooting for
JOANNA HOGG - THE SOUVENIR
KASI LEMMONS - HARRIET
TAIKA WAITITI - JOJO RABBIT
CIRO GUERRA - WAITING THE BARBARIANS
Screenplays I really hope that...
James Gray, Kasi Lemmons, Lulu Wang, Joanna Hogg, Charles Randolph in Original
Taika Waititi, Dee Rees, Chloé Zhao, Steven Zaillian, Todd Phillips, JC Lee and Julius Onah in Adapted
All the other works (except foreign) looks booring for me this year.
... Except BLACKBIRD (KATE WINSLET, MIA WASIKOWSKA,SUSAN SARANDON). Everything else looks 'oh Lord! (vomit)'
So many questions...
Will Netflix feel beholden to push THE IRISHMAN 1000% because of how much they paid for it, regardless of quality?
Can ROCKETMAN be as popular as BoRhap or will the earlier release date work against it?
Will love for Gerwig help make LITTLE WOMEN an awards contender?
Will CATS become a big enough hit that - Film Twitter haters be damned - it ends up in Best Picture?
SCAR-JO 3:16 FOR BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS for JoJo Rabbit!!!!!
Jojo Rabbit screams Three Billboards to me; I'm anticipating it with dread.
the trailer for THE LAST BLACK MAN IN SAN FRANCISCO is so beautiful!!
I wouldn't be confident about 1917 until the reviews come in. The Academy has cooled a bit on Sam Mendes, even leaving aside his Bond films, WWI has a total of only 7 nominations for Best Picture, and just 2 of those (Lawrence of Arabia and...really?...War Horse) are post WWII AND Mendes is co-writing this thing with a newbie. Non-writer, and an unproven co-writer? Yeah, I'd put it in 11-15 until further notice.
Picture:
1. A Beautiful Day in the Neighbourhood
2. Harriet
3. The Goldfinch
4. Ford v. Ferrari
5. The Irishman
6. Queen & Slim
7. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
8. Jojo Rabbit
9. The Good Liar (I mean, we know what "good for Bill Condon" looks like. And it's not Top 5 BP contender.)
10. The Laundromat
11. Knives Out
12. Pain and Glory
13. The Report
14. Untitled Todd Haynes Project
15. 1917
George: Taika Waititi made a coherent and righteous anti-colonialism movie...within the Marvel machine. Martin McDonagh made two feature length South Park episodes (the first mid-tier, the second low-tier)...unrestrained...and felt he deserved to graduate to a dissertation on racism and police brutality. Needless to say, I'm not expecting Jojo Rabbit being THAT stupid.
The Goldfinch is not going to happen. The studio knows it's DOA given that its release date was pushed from October to September (this happens every year with something that looks good on paper and ends up on "This Had Oscar Buzz").
I think you're underestimating Little Women given the number of crafts nominations it's likely to receive (it was just announced that Desplat is doing the score) and how good Gerwig is on the campaign circuit.
George - I agree with you on Jojo Rabbit.
Joe Wright wasn't nominated for best director for Atonement?!? How did that happen?
Once upon a time I wrote a screenplay about Harriet Tubman because hers is such an essential story and someone needed to tell it on the big screen. Obviously this is not my screenplay, but I really, really want this movie to be great. Not just good, but great. I am so nervous for the final product.
I hate that Dee Rees is Netflix-bound again. The only way her film is given a Roma-style Oscar push is if The Irishman is disappointing, which is unlikely.
A possible line up at director that includes Almodovar, Peele, Scorsese and Waititi, is already an Oscar line up that one can dream of.
You're seriously underestimating "Us", Nathaniel. Lupita will be a strong contender for Actress, and Elisabeth Moss WILL be a contender for the win in supporting, if the film makes a "Silence of the Lambs"... which is a film, that "Us" can be compared to, as it is a deep film, that will earn with repeated viewings and with lots of symbolism to be discussed (even more so, than "Get Out"). I think "Us" and "Pain and Glory" (having seen them both) are likely to score Picture, Director, Acting and Screenplay noms. Even Film Editing. Their way to Oscar is way different, as it is their appeal and background, and while "Us" will have a year long fight to be remembered, it's making enough money, to launch an important campaign.
"Pain & Glory" on the other hand, seems to be aiming to Cannes, then to a end of summer/fall american release, the perfect window to start building up on the buzz and reviews from the original release here in Spain, to launch the film into the big races, specially, if the Spanish Academy does - again - a "Talk to her" and snubs it from Oscar submission for Foreign Film. Add to this, Antonio Banderas being a constantly snubbed icon, playing Almodovar's alter ego (there's a scene involving a phone call, that's excellently acted, by the way, and could be a perfect Oscar clip) and we're on to something.
So far, I have "Us", "Pain & Glory" and "The American" as safe bets at Picture, Director, Acting (Nyong'o, Banderas,Moss, Paquin, Pacino, maybe Cruz, too) and Screenplay nominations. Still plenty of things to happen, but these three films seem to play with some advantage already, let the backslash start.