Best Actress Predictions
Friday, October 9, 2020 at 2:52PM by Nathaniel R
Sophia Loren with her son, director Edoardo Ponti
We try to save the best for last. We know where our bread is buttered. Or, rather, what kind of bread we like in the first place, and which buttery spread is the perfect topper. Which brings us to BEST ACTRESS...
We only have one sure thing this year, in that the film has been frequently screened and everyone loves it and raves about its leading lady who is already a two-time Oscar winner. That'd be Frances McDormand in Nomadland. We don't, at this writing, think she'll win. But that's another topic. At this point in each year we prefer to stick to guesswork about who might secure nominations. Normally in October we'd have a better idea about the rest of the Best Actress list but this year is still young if you think about it since there have been so few movies released and December isn't the stopping point this season for releases since eligibility will run through the end of February.
But Viola Davis is a good bet (August Wilson projects are kind to her, and vice versa) for Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, as is Kate Winslet in Ammonite (already screened and well regarded). That makes three women who feel very likely if not locked up.
That theoretically leaves two spots open for the free-for-all competition. Will it be Sophia Loren in a new version of a story Oscar has liked before? Andra Day and/or Jennifer Hudson in biopics about iconic singers, Billie Holliday and Aretha Franklin respectively ? Michelle Pfeiffer in the eccentric French Exit? Or someone else entirely?
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Reader Comments (51)
Pfeiffer in the top 5!
Woop
Andra Day
Frances McDormand
Kate Winslet
Vanessa Kirby
Sophia Loren
Michelle Pfeiffer
Viola Davis
Haley Bennett
Sidney Flanigan
Carey Mulligan
Viola Davis
Andra Day
Jennifer Hudson
Frances McDormand
Kate Winslet
Alt. : Sophia Loren, Vanessa Kirby, Michelle Pfeiffer
I have this gut feeling that either Fran is going for an undeniable DDL third here or Vanessa Kirby will split awards with her and wins in the end with some passion votes. I can see her campaigning, winning the Bafta, quite a few critics' awards. She can beat Fran with some strong campaigning in an Adrien Brody way.
Viola seems to be such a good bet on paper, but I am not really feeling it. I think it will be nominations for her and Chadwick with a couple of technical nominations. Nobody would deserve to be the next Best Actress winner of color, but I have a feeling she's not happening this year as a winner. I hope I am wrong.
I hope Michelle makes it in, but it does seem like the kind of performance that can be hurt by some deeply ageist, sexist chatter of her movie not being "weighty/important enough" (The Wife treatment).
At this point, I don't trust anything Lee Daniels is touching. Sophia Loren would be dreamy, but it's just too good to be true. Jennifer Hudson - please no.
Honestly, in a cynical sense Oscar can be very responsive to performances that seem to ‘suffer’ the most - and with this in mind, I’d keep an eye on Kirby for a nomination or even a sneak win if Ma Rainey and Respect turn out flat. The combination of ‘character that suffers’ and the impressiveness of the one-unbroken-shot-act will be powerful campaign fuel.
On the other hand, muted response to Ammonite leaves me feeling people will simply forget about it, bar BAFTA noms for leads.
I think Viola and Frances seem the most likely to get in at this point and I'm praying that Michelle Pfeiffer can make it in. It would be so great to see her in the race again!
Respect looks like another boring, plastic biopic and Jennifer just seems like Effie, but it might be enough to get her in with the Academy and their love for that sort of thing. Meanwhile, I'm really curious to see what Lee Daniels get out of Andra Day as Billie Holiday. Again, they love a biopic, but with someone like Daniels at the helm it's a little more exciting because he always does something different, for better or worse.
I would be elated if Nicole Beharie got in for Miss Juneteenth, though. I know it's a long shot, but seeing that the film is being made available for Academy viewers gives me a glimmer of hope that I'm not ready to let go of yet.
Jennifer Hudson only has an Oscar b/c the academy got foolishly caught up in the moment back in the day and awarded her for a performance that was not much better then mediocre whenever she wasn't singing. Please don't make that mistake again, folks. Unless of course she has truly learned to act since then.
How are me and Anne Hathaway older than Michelle Pfeiffer?
Like thefilmjunkie, I'm pulling for Nicole Beharie to finally receive the acknowledgement she deserves. She's outstanding in Miss Juneteenth.
Don't count out Meryl for "The Prom".
Tier one looks very strong indeed. What's all this nonsense about cancelling the Oscars?
I will keep an open mind for Respect until I’ve seen it, but J. Hud is not the strongest actor. But they are OBSESSED with biopics - especially musical ones. Freddie Mercury, Judy Garland just in the past two years.
I share your reservations about Pieces of a Woman - I’ve heard it’s unremittingly bleak, and some may not want to sit through that. But Kirby is a great new star, and critics awards will surely go for her in some capacity.
Carey Mulligan is so overdue for a second nomination. Would love to see her make it in. I wonder if Promising Young Woman will be too pulpy for Oscar though.
I have doubts about a third McDormand win as well, but if Nomadland becomes the undisputed best picture front runner, she could surprise us with a third.
I probably wouldn’t be going with Pfeiffer or Winslet, but then I don’t know who to go for in their place. Day *and* Hudson seems unlikely, although I do remember earlier in the season assuming Hudson would waltz to an easy nomination given the field. I wasn’t aware the Day/Daniels project was happening so soon. Ideally it would be Moss for INVISIBLE MAN and Garner got THE ASSISTANT, but even in a slim year the chances of that perfect double seems unrealistic.
If Pfeiffer's performance is really good, she more than deserves to be an "Oscar winning actress." If we're going by whatever the best performance is, period with no factoring in who's due, overdue or whatever, then it might just be #3 for McDormand or #2 for Davis or Winslet.
Glenn -- 100% agree with Moss and Garner. Let's hope it happens purely as a nod to in-person cinema, which those two were the last remnants of. And they were excellent, too.
a BIG NO to Jennifer Hudson - agree with @Rob.
I know there are many here who begrudge her for the Billboard win but I say go for the third Frances! And I also know there are many here who want Viola to be in for whatever role she's playing - hope she doesn't get in at all!
Sophia (yes), Michelle (NO), Audra (yes), Kirby (maybe), Winslet (maybe).
personally think Vanessa Kirby is in a better position than most of the mentioned contenders: along with Davis is Netflix's top contender in this category (i mean, there's a reason they spent millions in her movie=, and definitely they will campaign the hell out of it, she won at Venice, and even if the reviews for the movie itself are mixed she's pointed out as the best thing about it, and the STAR IN THE MAKING! narrative is always irresistible in this category
I hope they'll cancel. What are we celebrating? The death of movie theatres?
Haley Bennett for Swallow should get some love!
I don't think Winslet will be nominated for Ammonite. The reviews for the film are not very strong, and I think she'll need to either appear in a beloved film or make a departure from her typical sad period relationship drama (her Steve Jobs character, for instance, was a departure for her) in order to obtain another nomination.
How about Rosamund Pike somewhere on the list for consideration?
I would have nominated her 4 or 5 times already for roles in her versatile portfolio.
And like Whale Rider or Beasts of the Southern Wild, the young actress in Beans might surprise.
Y'all. Jennifer Hudson is not making this line up. She was great in Dreamgirls of course but other than that she is a bad actress. Anyone who saw her in the Color Purple or Sex and the City or any other movie she has been in will say the same. Let's be in reality here.
Is anything eligible? What a strange year. I don't see Frances winning again so soon. My God hasn't she been rewarded enough? Give it to a new person, please.
If you can't think of enough worthy performances you're not watching enough films. Gawd.
I hope they'll cancel. What are we celebrating? The death of movie theatres?
This was bound to happen with the streaming war anyway. But anyway, the Debbie Drowners are coming.
My predix:
Frances McDormand
Viola Davis
Vanessa Kirby
Michelle Pfeiffer
Sophia Loren
Viola Davis
Vanessa Kirby
Frances Mcdormand
Michelle Pfeiffer
Kate Winslet
Winner: Pfeiffer or Winslet
I'm saving my prediction till The French Exit reviews start rolling in next week.
Sad tt Moss is not getting any traction for her one-two punch, esp Shirley!! She's a dead ringer & very good!!
Pfeiffer Pfeiffer Pfeiffer.
The "If you can't think of enough worthy performances you're not watching enough films" is bullshit. I'm not getting any screeners or festival credentials
Finkle -- You don't need screeners or festival credentials to watch great films from 2020 with worthy performances. First Cow, Shirley, The Invisible Man, Never Rarely Sometimes Always, Beanpole, Babyteeth, She Dies Tomorrow, The Wild Goose Lake, The Assistant, Bacurau, Relic, And Then We Danced, Swallow, Premature, Driveways, Ema, Emma, The Personal History of David Copperfield, Da 5 Bloods, Lingua Franca, Corpus Christie, and many, many others are widely available.
I think Kirby has such a strong performance that she will also boost Burstyn in supporting and shine a light at Shia as well. The movie may me uneven, but when a performance is that powerful, Kirby is a strong contender for both a nomination and the win
As I suggest earlier, like yesterday:
Vanessa Kirby - 1st nom and Venice winner + rising star
Andra Day - 1st nom and rising star
Sophia Loren - legendary actress returning
Michelle Pfeiffer - comeback legend
Frances McDormand - going for the 3rd
Some issues with Vanessa Kirky's film that people are ignoring. As Nathaniel said, Venice does not always translate into Oscar. And it almost always happens when actresses are not stars. Kirky is relatively unknown. Second point: will the film be released this year? Third point: the film did not receive divisive reviews. The film is seen as problematic. Many people point out that the film loses a lot of strength after the initial 30 minute.
As for Ammonite ... I prefer to wait longer. The film has, for example, a critical reception similar to the Aaron Sorkin and Regina King film. The difference is that these films are more accessible in style. But the twitter bubble tried and tries to sell Ammonite as a bad movie.
No Hong Chau in Driveways?
Frances McDormand has too many Oscars already.
Not another faux stupid biopic of a singer. Lets stop at Judy
Nathaniel: Any news on Streep in Let Them All Talk? Streaming on HBO max- is it a movie or TV movie!?!
Jamie -- i believe that one was meant for HBO originally which would make it for the Emmys... but it sure is getting confusing these days!
@NathanielR
Your Tier 1 is my five nominees this year. I really hope we have two afrodescendents actresses nominees, two returns (Kate returns for leading, Michelle's returns for winning) and Frances.
I am in a world that could give a Oscar do David Fincher, Michelle Pfeiffer and Glenn Close at the same night!!!
Basically, it's becoming obvious that Saoirse should've won for LadyBird over Frances... even more obvious that it was at the time, that is!
#TeamSophia
In likehood of NOMINATION (not win) considering early-October buzz:
.
#1: Frances McDormand, NOMADLAND
#2: Viola Davis, MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM
#3: Vanessa Kirby, PIECES OF A WOMAN
#4: Andra Day, THE UNITED STATES VS. BILLIE HOLIDAY
#5: Michelle Pfeiffer, THE FRENCH EXIT
#6: Sophia Loren, LA VITA DAVANTE A SÉ
#7: Kate Winslet, AMMONITE
#8: Carey Mulligan, PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN
#9: Jennifer Hudson, RESPECT
#10: Sdiney Flanigan, NEVER RARELY SOMETIMES ALWAYS
I'm thinking Viola is a frontrunner at least on paper. Transformative role, real-life person, another adaptation of an August Wilson play. Could be Oscar catnip. Then maybe Frances given how the film is a BP contender. Only handicaps are that Frances just won her second and the performance is incredibly subtle and naturalistic as opposed to the showy, actorly-type that voters often love.
Then Vanessa Kirby despite the film being polarizing, Carey Mulligan since her film finally has a release date, and then either Michelle Pfeiffer, Andra Day, Kate Winslet, or Jennifer Hudson.
But if I may bang a little drum, Nicole Beharie in MISS JUNETEENTH.
I just read the Deadline rave of Michelle Pfeiffer in French Exit. I think she'd only need one or two more reviews of that caliber to be a lock. Boxoffice (or its equivalent) would help, but the reviews alone would be enough to get her in discussion territory. Let's hope Michelle cares and that she hires good PR people to get her in!
As Claudio wisely says, there are a lot of great films out there from small distributors like KINO LORBER, STRAND, FILM MOVEMENT and so on. I heard someone suggest Strand's STRAIGHT UP is a worthy Best Original Screenplay contender, and it is. In a bigger year, it would be a non-player. This year this deserving film might at least score a screenplay nomination and help its talented writer/director/star, James Sweeney, get the attention he deserves. BEANPOLE has stunning art and set direction, WILD GOOSE LAKE has brilliant Scorsese-level cinematography, DA FIVE BLOODS should be up for Screenplay, editing, cinematography maybe a couple of acting nods. I'm also hearing great things about MARTIN EDEN and BUOYANCY. This might be the year people have to actually do a little research (read the film reviews every Friday in the New York Times for starters, then go to the distributor's website) rather than just sitting around passively waiting for screeners to arrive from A24 and Searchlight. I've emailed some of the folks at Film Movement and Strand and they've been happy to provide me with free access to their films via Vimeo when I've said I need to watch them for my work. Many of this year's best films are coming out from micro distributors without much of a budget who have never fought in the Oscar trenches before and they're not used to sending out screeners to every critic in the country with a blog somewhere. This could be the year we take the opportunity provided by PARASITE winning last year to the next level and really allow the art of cinema to shine, or we could just sit home and pout and wait for the middlebrow Oscar-bait to come back in late 2021.
Variety says this is the role that Michelle Pfeiifer will be remembered for.
There’s a Deadline article that explains that Let Them All Talk is competing for Oscars, not Emmys.
@ Dave in Hollywood
Never trust a Pete Hammond review. ;-)
But Variety also loves her in it, though most reviews are lukewarm about the film itself...
McDormand and Davis feel like the only sure bets. Beyond that, it's anyone's game, which is very exciting! Some combination of the following: Day, Hudson, Kirby, Moss, Mulligan, and Winslet. I'm not seeing it for anyone else at this stage. I agree with an earlier point made that this year is the prime opportunity for unconventional nominees in comedies and foreign language films to make their cases heard in an open and "weak" field, b/c there is no better year to do so than now.
Thanks Eva! Just read that as well!!