April Foolish Predix Pt 3: Directors and Screenplays
Monday, April 20, 2020 at 11:00AM 
The even more foolish (in light of the current pandemic) annual tradition of "April Foolish Predictions" continues. As ever we're trying to suss out the Oscar race a year in advance. Well, 10 months in advance if you're getting nitpicky. We've previously covered Animated Features, Visual Categories, Music and Sound. Here's the index of predictions.
SCREENPLAYS
Depending on what happens with the calendar in terms of movie theaters reopening and distributor confidence Original Screenplay will be slimmer than usual. But how slim...?
Adapted Screenplay contenders are more plentiful if only because Hollywood leans harder into preexisting awareness than they ever have in our risk-averse franchise world. The most famous book receiving its first screen adaptation soon is the best-selling memoir Hillbilly Elegy. That's the type of project that is a preordained contender for this particular category (famous source material, famous director, all-star cast). It only has to not disappoint to be a contender. At least in this category.
Other famous novels getting the big screen treatment for 2020 (provided the films open and prove eligible) are Jane Austen's Emma, Patricia Highsmith's Deep Water, and Frank Herbert's Dune. Movies drawn from the stage MIGHT be plentiful with The Humans, West Side Story, In the Heights, Everybody's Talking About Jamie, and The Father all either completed or in post-production at this writing. Check out the new screenplays chart.
DIRECTORS
Jumping the gun a bit here since we're not quite finished with the Best Picture chart but here's wild guesswork about the Best Director category.
Reader Comments (15)
Reminder: THE GOLDFINCH was also "type of project that is a preordained contender for this particular category (famous source material, famous director, all-star cast)"
So many good predictions.
I wonder how Hillbilly Elegy and Nomadland will be recieved politically? Given Vance's politics, I could see a greenbook style backlash to Elegy, which may or may not work. With Nomadland, I have a feeling the academy might say, "we just did a film about class" and go for something else. Not if that will have a big impact on noms, but it will influence wins and precusors.
Re: Nolan and the Academy--he may have had to wait until Dunkirk for that elusive directing nomination, but the writers' branch warmed up to him much sooner. He did get screenplay nods for Memento and Inception. So he's probably as good a prediction as any for what will probably be another complex narrative.
Considering that Docter's last 2 films were nominated in this category, I am surprised that Soul isn't in your Tier 2.
I'd wager that the prestige fare with streaming distribution already locked up (Hillbilly Elegy, Mank, Ma Rainey and so on) are the likeliest contenders. Even if theaters don't come back at full strength, which seems likely given the current trajectory of the virus and an anticipated second wave of infection in the fall, these films have a built-in audience. All they need is a single theater in L.A. to show them, right? (And, of course, that question assumes AMPAS doesn't change the rules.)
I'm uneasy about the A24s and Neons of the world. They've produced some of the very best movies in recent years but they rely on arthouse theaters for the bulk of their revenue. It's not at all certain those theaters will survive a prolonged shutdown. The viability of mid-budget drama and foreign language films in America was already threatened. COVID-19 may just obliterate what's left of that market outside the streaming platforms.
Le sigh.
Very surprised Da 5 Bloods isn't being predicted more heavily- I figured it'd be considered the early frontrunner? Of course it's all just guesswork right now.
I am not looking forward to Hillbilly Elegy at all. One of our most cloying directors with source material by a right-wing conservative author? Hard pass.
Thanks for these predictions, N-Ro. Apart from the ceremony itself, this is one of my favourite times of the Oscar calendar (even if it isn't official).
My interest is in the absence of WOMAN IN THE WINDOW. Given the success of Joe Wright films at the Oscars over the last two decades (even if the guy himself hasn't been successful, his movies have been), I am surprised that it doesn't feature in either of today's categories (it probably doesn't deserve to be in the top tier, but I though it might be listed as a contender). Do you think it will be delayed yet again, or is it just that you don;t have faith in it any more?
Yeah, as has been noted above, it’s going to be a looooong awards season in Appalachia if Hillbilly Elegy is as well received as you’ve been projecting.
aaron & scott c -- as ever the prdictions aren't so much "wishes" as things I think could happen..
jake -- honestly I read so many articles about films in progress and only ever came across that title once (perhaps because Netflix never dated it). and when i heard the title I thought of DA SWEET BLOOD OF JESUS one of Spiike Lee's most ignored films and I thought 'oh that must be one of Spiike's peculiar fringe movies. Now reading up on it and knowing it's actually completed (not even still in post-production, OOPS. But that's why april foolish predictions are so hard (well, one of the many reasons.)
My big takeaway here is finding out there is a film adaptation of Blonde coming. If they can match the tone of Joyce Carol Oates' novel onscreen, the film could be a real contender in Adapted Screenplay and Actress.
How about Kelly Reichardt for “First Cow”? Isn’t it about time she had her first nomination?
Although the film played at Telluride in 2019, its general opening in the US was 2020.
Chloe Zhao should happen this season. Please please please
Thanks for these predictions, Nathaniel (my apologies). Apart from the ceremony itself, this is one of my favourite times of the Oscar calendar (even if it isn't official).
My interest is in the absence of WOMAN IN THE WINDOW. Given the success of Joe Wright films at the Oscars over the last two decades (even if the guy himself hasn't been successful, his movies have been), I am surprised that it doesn't feature in either of today's categories (it probably doesn't deserve to be in the top tier, but I though it might be listed as a contender). Do you think it will be delayed yet again, or is it just that you don;t have faith in it any more?
What strange fascination does "Hillbilly Elegy" hold? I know it's a great cast, and a prestige book, but I'm so sick of that part of the South. Cold Mountain again?, no thanks.