Oscar Volley: Picture - Does it really come down to just two spots?

TFE’s Oscar volleys wrap up with Lynn Lee, Eurocheese, and Christopher James making predictions for the Big One (Best Picture). Nathaniel’s final Oscar chart predictions will be up tonight to usher in the weekend.

Lynn Lee: Oscar nomination voting closed Tuesday night but before it did do we agree we were approaching a consensus core group? Taking the precursors into account (minus BAFTA which hasn't yet announced as I type this), eight of the ten spots are close to locked up (in alpha order): Belfast, CODA, Don't Look Up, Dune, King Richard, Licorice Pizza, The Power of the Dog and West Side Story. That leaves two nomination spots for maybe a half dozen viable contenders. PGA went with Being the Ricardos and tick, tick...BOOM!, but as Nathaniel’s noted, the Oscar list is rarely an exact copy of the PGA. Could it happen this year? Entirely possible but I suspect at least one of those two is going to drop out and if I had to take a bet, it’s sadly more likely to be BOOM!...

As for what takes the tenth slot, I’ve had this gut feeling for a while now that Drive My Car is going to make it in based on passion votes. Which I’d be good with as I absolutely adore Drive My Car, but I’d far rather it bumped out Being the Ricardos. 

Eurocheese: I think you're correct about the locked 8, though that immediately makes me question which could be a surprise fall out. I’d love to say Don’t Look Up is the weakest of the assumed locks, but we know a lot of people watched it. The DGA five are the most safe. Which leaves either CODA or King Richard as vulnerable but they would hit the Academy’s sweet spot, so I’ll put a pin in that thought for now.

I highly doubt Being the Ricardos gets in, actually, despite being a big fan of it. It felt like the big surprise at PGA and the big surprise there each year doesn't usually make the Oscar cut. tick, tick... BOOM! was on the cusp and I also don’t think it’s safe, but it really scored with the last round of guild nominations. It would not have made it in a year without ten nominees, but it’s in better shape than I expected.

Drive My Car would definitely be my guess for the last slot, especially after hearing this stat...

Did a bit of research. No movie that has won the Holy Trinity of critics prizes (LAFCA, NYFCC, NSFC) as DRIVE MY CAR recently did, has missed a Best Picture nomination. (cont'd)

— Nathaniel Rogers (@nathanielr) January 9, 2022

But... stats were made to be broken. House of Gucci and Spider-Man: No Way Home don't seem totally out of the question, though it was a surprise that the producers didn’t go for either given their much discussed box office. The Lost Daughter really picked up steam late in the season, and The Tragedy of Macbeth is a perfect nominee on paper. The question is, which film we’re underestimating could be lurking in left field? Chris, any thoughts?

Christopher James: What a race! It’s been really interesting to see how it has firmed up through the guild nominations. For a minute, I had thought that Don’t Look Up could be snubbed. Yet, it has shown up with nominations among six guilds, including SAG, PGA and WGA. I think it has secured its slot (even if I wouldn’t put it anywhere near my lineup). On the other hand, I’m delighted that CODA appears to have clinched its spot in the Best Picture lineup. The SAG Outstanding Cast nomination in particular was key.

I agree with Lynn on Being the Ricardos making it over tick, tick... BOOM! There's just so much to the Ricardos pedigree that makes me more confident in its chances. It’s about show business and looks like it is more well liked around Hollywood and with older audiences. Plus tick, tick... BOOM! will be competing for the musical vote, and West Side Story stole its thunder in late December. Plus, Netflix has so many contenders this year. They are obviously prioritizing The Power of the Dog and Don’t Look Up over tick, tick... BOOM! and Passing.

Drive My Car feels like the safest bet for a surprise nominee (though can you call it a "surprise" given all the discussion of its chances?). It has passion and its box office is impressive as the second highest grossing film from Janus Films. This has been such a standout year for International Features. Though there are a host of great subtitled movies (Parallel Mothers, The Worst Person in the World, Flee, A Hero), precursors have rallied the passion around just this one which will help in balloting.

After this, there are some longshots that are unlikely, but not probable. Even after missing PGA, part of me still thinks No Time to Die is in the hunt for that 10th slot. It showed up on many shortlists, with Makeup & Hairstyling being particularly surprising. Additionally, it received ACE, ADG, CDG and CAS nominations. There’s definitely support out there. Spider-Man: No Way Home still rules the box office, but the drums beating for a Best Picture nomination seem to have quieted. Are Nightmare Alley and The Tragedy of Macbeth fully out, or are there pockets of support for those films that we aren’t considering? Dare I say it, are we underestimating House of Gucci, the one adult drama to make money this holiday season?

Are there any other films still in the race?

Lynn Lee:  Aaahhh, don’t say “GUCCI”!  To me, that name is like Candyman – don’t say it if you don’t want it to show up. You’re right not to count it out, unfortunately, though I confess I was enormously chuffed by its no-show at PGA.

I don’t think Tragedy of Macbeth and Nightmare Alley are completely out of the running either, but I’m just not feeling them for the top category. I’d be delighted to be wrong, at least with respect to Macbeth, which was brilliant and haunting and made my own top five. But they both feel just a little too niche and don’t seem to have drawn the kind of deep emotional response that other contenders have. Admiration, yes; passion, not as much.

In terms of other films we should be considering, I agree that Drive My Car has become the critical juggernaut among a particularly strong bunch of international films, but are we underestimating some of the others given the increased international membership of the Academy? Scott Feinberg thinks so.  Or are there so many of them they’ll split the international vote?

Eurocheese: It’s been such an incredible year for international film, but any hope I have of a film beyond the rote contenders here makes me think a lone Director nomination is more likely. They all still feel miles behind Drive My Car. I’d love to have seen a consensus build around The Worst Person in the World, Flee, A Hero or Titane – any of them, really – but that's wishful thinking.

Chris, you make a fair point on No Time to Die but I haven’t heard anyone say they love it more than Skyfall (or Casino Royale), so it’s hard to imagine enough enthusiasm to get it in. I do think there’s a scenario where Spider-Man provided the best viewing experience voters had in 2021, and that ends up being enough to get it a slot. But if that's going to happen, it'll be even more of a shock that PGA didn't toss it into the mix.

Here are two curve balls that could shake things up: Could Cyrano’s late arrival have us underestimating its chances? And could there be enough Wes Anderson love to sneak The French Dispatch to a nomination out of nowhere?

Christopher James:  There’s late, and then there’s “opening on February 25th two weeks after the nominations” late. I could’ve seen Cyrano becoming a slow build sleeper that amasses a small, yet mighty, fanbase. Unfortunately, MGM’s release strategy has shot the movie in its foot. What you said about The French Dispatch is interesting. The WGA nomination is a good sign. I don’t think it’s destined for Best Picture, but I could see it breaking into more categories than expected (Original Screenplay, Production Design and Original Score).

Lynn, thank you for calling attention to Feinberg’s piece in the Hollywood Reporter. The more international body of voters definitely makes me confident in Drive My Car, both in Picture and Director. As for the other International Features, I think they have a shot of breaking through in other categories (Penelope Cruz in Actress, Flee in Animation/Documentary, A Hero or Parallel Mothers in Original Screenplay).

So what are everyone’s predicted rankings? Mine are:

 

1. Belfast
2. The Power of the Dog
3. King Richard
4. Dune
5. CODA
6. Don’t Look Up
7. West Side Story
8. Licorice Pizza
9. Drive My Car
10. Being the Ricardos 

(alt: tick, tick... BOOM! and The Tragedy of Macbeth)

Are there any movies that you wish would have been more of a contender in Best Picture? Like Eurocheese I wish more international features would’ve been a force. Flee, Parallel Mothers, The Worst Person in the World and Titane were some of my favorites. It’s still crazy that we have not had a Documentary Feature nominated in Best Picture. Other than Flee, I was blown away by Summer of Soul (or... When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised). It’s such an important reminder of how archival footage can bring to life a more honest version of the past, while still being incredibly entertaining and accessible. Questlove takes the structure of a music documentary and makes it a social documentary that speaks to all facets of life in 1969 New York.

Lynn Lee:  I honestly have no idea how the potential nominees rank in terms of votes or likelihood of winning, especially given the Academy’s byzantine voting system for Best Picture. The DGA’s nominations suggest that Belfast, Power of the Dog, West Side Story, Dune, and Licorice Pizza are pretty secure in their standing as BP nominees, while not necessarily perfectly contiguous with the “top five.”

But I struggle with the idea of Belfast as the leader, and not just because its buzz seems to have faded. Its victory still makes sense on paper: it ticks a lot of the tried-and-true Oscar boxes, it’s personal, and it’s crafted to charm. Something feels missing, though – apart from the performances, it lacks spark. Yet I can’t think of an obvious candidate to upset it. I do think CODA should be ranked higher than you have it, Chris – it’s the definition of a sleeper. I don’t quite see it winning but if it splits the “heartwarming” vote with Belfast and King Richard, I could see The Power of the Dog sneaking in and taking the big prize.

I’m so glad you mentioned Summer of Soul, which is also in my top five of the year. I don’t see nearly enough documentaries, and when I do they’re usually very good, but fairly or not, I just don’t watch or judge them the same way I do feature films. Every now and again, though, one breaks that pattern and captures my heart, and that was the case with SoS. As for other movies that haven’t really been in the BP conversation but deserve to be, I wish Passing and C’mon C’mon had gotten more any traction. I’m also a bit regretful that of the two Ridley Scott films that came out in 2021, The Last Duel isn’t the one we’re talking about as a potential BP nominee. And if we expand from long shots to never-happening, Pig was one of the most delightful surprises of the year for me – both because of Nicolas Cage suddenly showing up again as one of our best actors and because it was one of the few film-viewing experiences in which I had no idea where the narrative was going but was intrigued enough to go along for the ride.

Eurocheese, are you pouring one out for any particular films?

Eurocheese: Here’s how I see the race breaking down:

1. The Power of the Dog
2. Belfast
3. Dune
4. West Side Story
5. Licorice Pizza (DGA top five, baby)
6. CODA
7. Don’t Look Up
8. King Richard
9. tick, tick... BOOM!
10. Drive My Car 

I feel confident that The Power of the Dog is the leader. There’s plenty of time for momentum to change, and Belfast could be an underrated threat. I’m curious to see how it fares on nomination morning. You’re right that the “heartwarming vote” will be split several ways. From the top eight assumed nominees, I most fear a King Richard snub. It has been fading steadily and I really love that movie. If we have a shocking snub this year, will that be it? Or – and I’m saying this while crossing my fingers – any chance the mixed reactions to Don’t Look Up add up to it missing?

Personal favorites this year: I keep beating the drum for Todd Stephens’ Swan Song, and I really loved Spencer. Titane already being out in International Feature breaks my heart. It's not happening for Red Rocket but here's to hoping that the right Sean Baker film manages to break into this category someday.

Lynn Lee:  So odds aside, how do we feel about our predicted shortlist of BP nominees? Any favorites, or any that make you want to tear your hair out? My view, with the caveat that I haven’t yet seen Licorice Pizza or King Richard, is that this is an ok list. Most of the movies are at least solid (yes, even Don’t Look Up) and some are excellent, though I am distinctly “meh” on Being the Ricardos. I’m definitely rooting hardest for Power of the Dog and Drive My Car.

Eurocheese: I love about half the list. Belfast would be my meh.

Christopher James:  Like most Oscar lists, the highs are high and the lows are low. The Power of the Dog is my favorite of the year, so I am hoping it pulls out the win. Just the fact that it is at the top of people’s predictions is amazing. Both Dune and West Side Story were great examples of big screen, capital M Movies and I loved both of them. CODA had me in a puddle of tears. I respected Drive My Car more than I loved it. Similarly, I liked more than loved King Richard and Licorice Pizza. Belfast is my meh, while Don’t Look Up is my Bohemian Rhapsody  “absolutely not.” Being the Ricardos gets a lot of flack, much of it deserved. However, I can’t deny I had a blast watching it with the family. Is it Best Picture worthy? No. Will I like it more than at least two of the nominees? Yes.

[AT THIS POINT IN THE CONVERSATION BAFTA NOMINATIONS HIT]

Lynn Lee:  My first reaction to the BAFTA nods: This is bad news for tick, tick...BOOM! and good news for Don’t Look Up. Not great for West Side Story, but it will probably still get into the Oscar BP lineup. In short, this changes almost nothing for our presumed ten frontrunners. My second reaction: Maybe House of Gucci is going to get in after all? ugh. cause when I think “outstanding British film” I think Gucci populated with mostly American actors doing terrible Italian accents. In happier news, Passing also got that nod and did rather well with BAFTA noms. Though I’m still not bullish on its Oscar prospects.

My final reaction: Ah, who the hell knows, given that the BAFTA nomination/voting process is even more arcane than AMPAS’. I stand by my original predix.

Christopher James:  BAFTA helped certain movies more than it hurt them. Licorice Pizza was not what I expected BAFTA would fall for, but they sure went for it. This makes me certain PTA is in for director and has me toying with an Alana Haim prediction. In the case of Best Picture, it absolutely just cements the status of its five nominees – Belfast, Don’t Look Up, Dune, Licorice Pizza, The Power of the Dog.

I agree with you that House of Gucci feels stronger than ever. Gaga made it into Best Actress over Kidman, Stewart and Colman. It’s hard to see what is “British” about that movie, so Best British Film was a surprise. I’m just not 100% sure what Best Picture hopeful got terribly damaged. West Side Story feels like it should be here more, but I don’t think it’s dropping out of Best Picture. CODA, King Richard and (yes) Being the Ricardos also never felt like expected BAFTA players. If anything, I thought this could’ve been the place where Drive My Car really cemented its place in the Best Picture lineup, but alas that didn’t happen. If House of Gucci is surging late, unfortunately that movie seems the most vulnerable.

Eurocheese:  I’m still not feeling Gucci, even if we have now invoked the Candyman effect. Nicole missing in BAFTA Actress means she didn’t make top two, and that makes me more confident Being the Ricardos is out. This is only a small section of the voting body, but still, that was a strange miss. But then, we’re talking BAFTA, where nothing is normal these days.

Leo getting in for Don’t Look Up seems like an odd pick from the jury – is it possible he made the top two? Either way, Don’t Look Up feels secure after this. King Richard also did better than I was expecting. Even with weird underperforming elements of Belfast and West Side Story, I have to assume they’ll still make this list.

As for tick, tick... BOOM!, if Leo was somehow a jury pick over Andrew Garfield, it impacts the Actor frontrunner more than the chances here. I’m sticking with it. Pretty please?

And with that, we wrap up our Oscar volleys. Do you agree with us, readers?

All Oscar Volleys

• Actress
• Actor
• Supporting Actor
• Supporting Actress
• Original Screenplay
• Adapted Screenplay
• International Feature
• Animated Feature
• Cinematography
• Costume Design
• Film Editing
• Makeup and Hair
• Original Score
• Original Song

Nathaniel's Oscar Charts - final predictions Friday evening / Nominations on Tuesday!

Comments

[Joe G.]

What's so strange about this year is that it's hard to tell what's surging. Last year, it was really clear that Sound of Metal and Judas were going to make it because they were getting genuine love. I'd say the same of Hidden Figures and Phantom Thread, which got a lot of love in the right places.

I guess Drive My Car is sort of in that position, and seems primed to be a top ten contender. I'd love to see tick tick...Boom get in, but I don't think it's surging now.

[Frank Zappa]

The G word(s)…aaargh.

And by the way, why did Sir Ridley feel that a cacophony of bad Italian accents was necessary when the actors in The Last Duel aren’t putting on French accents?

[Peter]

I love that there have to be 10 nominees this year. If it was the same system as the last few years I think there'd be a strong presumption that we'd have the 8 "obvious" nominees and that would be it. This is much more interesting.

I think Being the Ricardos' chances are being overrated. Other than the PGA it has showed up basically nowhere. It hasn't gotten a ton of a critical love. It's not clear how well seen it was on Amazon. I would rank likelihood of scoring one of the last 2 noms as:

1) Tick, Tick Boom (surprising strength across guilds, Garfield a lock)
2) Tragedy of Macbeth (pedigree out the wazoo, plus technical accomplishment)
3) Drive My Car (critical love)
4) Nightmare Alley (below the line strength, big stars)
5) Ricardos (PGA and Kidman a lock)
6) Lost Daughter or Spencer (doesn't seem like momentum is there for either)
7) Spider-Man (still possible)

[guardian]

I think West Side Story will have a rather weak showing, missing key categories like Director and/or Screenplay. Probably will still be enough to make it in Best Picture, but I wonder how it would fare in another set of rules

I'm probably biased as foreigner who didn't like the movie, but as shown through its BAFTA performance I just don't see Tick Tick Boom having any international appeal, and that could be probably the main factor if it mises

The French Dispatch randomly showing up here would be my dream but alas. Sad it didn't get much traction.

[Edwin]

Having finally caught up with most of this year's contenders thanks to SAG screeners, I've got to say I'm pretty underwhelmed by the field overall, with a few notable exceptions of course (Power of the Dog chief among them). Licorice Pizza had been my most anticipated movie of the year as a big fan of PTA's other work, and while I liked it well enough, at the moment I'd have to say it's my least favorite of his films (I say "at the moment" because there's always a chance it grows on me in the future).

The upside of that as far as Oscar predicting goes is that since I really only have one dog in the race (the one with "dog" in the title, at that), my picks are mostly free from bias or wishful thinking.

So I agree about the assumed eight. Up until yesterday I was hesitant to call Don't Look Up a lock quite on the level of the other seven just because it seems like its buzz has been fading as of late, but if BAFTA even nominated it in a field of five, then I have to assume it's in. But most likely it'll only get one additional nomination (Original Screenplay), making it this year's Best Picture nominee with the lowest total nomination count.

I'm really torn about the other two spots, though. I can't shake the feeling that tick, tick...BOOM! being a Netflix movie might work against it simply because I suspect there will be a contingency of voters who actively try to avoid over-nominating Netflix, and with two other Netflix films already locked up, a third Netflix movie in the Best Picture lineup might strike many as too much. Drive My Car has the passion behind it, but will it be enough? I could totally see it getting in for Director but still missing Best Picture ala other recent international favorites like Another Round and Cold War. Being the Ricardos might be the "safe" pick, not necessarily in terms of its chances but more so in terms of the type of voter it'll appeal to: the more conventional (likely older) voters, which lest we forget still make up a significant chunk of the Academy.

It's probably down to those three, yet I do think a lot of people are underestimating Nightmare Alley. I'm not predicting it, but it definitely wouldn't surprise me either. I wouldn't even be shocked if it ended up with 5 nominations (Picture, Supporting Actress, Cinematography, Costume Design, and Production Design are all possible).

If I were to let my biases influence my predictions, I'd like to think Parallel Mothers is at least a dark horse if people are indeed watching it based on Penélope Cruz's buzz, but that one would be a genuine surprise to me (in a very good way, though). At most, I could *maybe* see Almodóvar sneaking into the Best Director lineup, but that would unfortunately be likely to come at the expense of Hamaguchi getting in. Wouldn't it be wild, though, if the directors branch really decided to shake things up by making room for both of them? I'm not holding my breath.

I think for my final predictions, this is how I'd rank them in terms of confidence of being nominated (which is different from confidence about winning, I should say):

1. The Power of the Dog
2. Belfast
3. Dune
4. West Side Story
5. Licorice Pizza
6. King Richard
7. CODA
8. Don't Look Up
9. Drive My Car
10. Being the Ricardos

Alternates:

11. tick, tick...BOOM!
12. Nightmare Alley
13. The Tragedy of Macbeth

Long shots:

14. Parallel Mothers
15. The Lost Daughter

[Edwin]

Oh, I just want to add on Summer of Soul (which I absolutely loved) since it was discussed in the conversation that while it would obviously be SHOCKING to see it nominated for Best Picture, I think it does have at least somewhat of a chance at a Best Editing nomination after it was cited by BAFTA. The fact that it's based on archival footage may just be enough to get the editing branch behind it as a really important accomplishment.

[Peter]

Edwin - agree with your analysis except I think you are underestimating how well Don't Look Up has done across precursors. It is very likely to get a Song nomination and Score and Editing are very much in the mix. And Leo and McKay can't yet be ruled out. I think it winds up at 4, and that CODA and (if nominated) tick tick Boom or Lost Daughter are the low-nominee Best Pic with just 3 a piece.

[StephenM]

I know it's unlikely but I'd love to see Nightmare Alley sneak in. I'm so glad I finally caught up with it, I thought it was terrific.

[Frank Zappa]

In future Best Picture news: that cast announcement of the screen adaptation of The Color Purple musical--practically the reverse of the current Spielberg adaptation scenario--has me nodding my head in anticipation. Colman Domingo, Fantasia, Danielle Brooks, Taraji P. Henson, H.E.R. et al.

[Amy Camus]

StephenM:

You are not alone. I fell completely in love with Nightmare Alley. Hard to believe it was once a front runner, and now looks likely to get NO nominations at all. I wish I didn't care.

[NATHANIEL R]

working stiff -- what do you mean in terms of "reverse of the current spielberg" . Not sure i follow.

[Frank Zappa]

@ Nathaniel

I wasn't sure about that phrasing as I typed it lol

I meant that the new The Color Purple will be an adaptation of the Broadway musical which was an adaptation of Alice Walker's novel and Spielberg's film (which was an adaptation of the novel), not long after Spielberg himself adapted a Broadway musical that was previously adapted for the screen and was itself an adaptation of Shakespeare's Romeo and Juliet (also an adaptation, by the way).

One can only hope that the new Purple (if it's good) has the opposite Oscar fate as Spielberg's.