Best Picture... Settled Contenders or Confusing Vacuum at Top?

Nathaniel R

In the absence of a Best Picture frontrunner, something I think we all can agree on at this particular juncture in time, does that mean anything could happen with Best Picture nominations? OR does that mean the Best Picture competition is fairly settled but that the films (i.e. campaigns) have yet to sort out who is the most formidable?

I'd argue, perhaps foolishly, that it's the latter. I see a fairly clear situation ahead where these seven films (and maybe only these seven) are going to be nominated. A winner will emerge but none have yet made a clear case that they're "the one".

Call Me By Your Name | Darkest Hour | Dunkirk
Get Out | Mudbound | The Shape of Water
Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

Since Academy rules allow for 5-10 nominees in a given year in the top category and since we've usually seen the final size of the list land at 8 or 9 that leaves us with only one or two super competitive slots. With rumors (take 'em or leave 'em since it's only hearsay) starting to swirl that the four big remaining unseen films (Phantom Thread, Greatest Showman, The Post, All the Money in the World) aren't all that, perhaps we know the field fully? Methinks The Florida Project  (a little picture that could), I Tonya (*shudder* but easy to picture for counterprogramming vote which also helped it at serious festivals) and Last Flag Flying  (meh but easy to picture as the #1 choice for the manly side of Oscar voting) are next in line should there be enough room for them. It's tough to say but there are several films with pockets of support that are in play for one of those coveted spots if the precursors and media are especially kind to them in the next month or two -- yes, even Wonder Woman.

P.S. Comedy at the Globes?
The comedy category is as wide as the Grand Canyon IF a number of the 'could go either way' films choose drama instead. Three Billboards, rumored to be choosing drama for example, is basically a tragicomedy so you can call it either safely! Films that could theoretically be up for COMEDY OR MUSICAL at the Globes (should they choose to campaign this way) are... 

Baby Driver | Battle of the Sexes | Beauty & The Beast
The Big Sick | Disaster Artist | Downsizing
Get Out ??? | Girls Trip | Greatest Showman
Guardians of Galaxy vol 2 | I Tonya | Lady Bird
Last Flag Flying ??? | Victoria and Abdul 

And theoretically that high profile boost could really help them. As would a Producers Guild or SAG shoutout.  How do you think this will all pan out?

UPDATED OSCAR CHARTS ARE HERE  and  GURUS OF GOLD ALSO UPDATED

Link Roundup

NYT Dan Kois profiles 'the loose screw rattling around inside the Marvel machine,' director Taika Waititi as Thor Ragnarok approaches
Film Stage Murtada interviews the director of Senegal's Oscar submission Félicité
TFE ...which you may recall he raved about right here.
Variety Jamie Foxx and Anthony Mackie will star in a Johnny Cochran biopic (Mackie as Cochran) with Taylor Hackford directing
Guardian can Michael Fassbender survive his string of flops?

Coming Soon The Seagull starring The Bening and Saoirse Ronan will be distributed by Sony Pictures Classic next year
ScriptNotes John and Craig welcome female screenwriters Daley Haggar and Dara Resnik to discuss the possible Post-Weinstein era in Hollywood
The New Yorker Harvey Weinstein's cameo in a 2005 animated movie for Mattel
My New Plaid Pants five photos of rising French actor Rabah Nait Oufella
My New Plaid Pants 'do, dump, or marry' on Greg McLean's Jungle with Daniel Radcliffe
Streamline on William Wyler's now-underdiscussed Wuthering Heights (1939)
Awards Daily Still no Best Picture frontrunner this late in season? (I personally love the more unpredictable years)
Tracking Board Netflix trailer for a western series Godless starring Jeff Daniels and Jack O'Connell and a mysterious town of all women
Variety Ben Mendelsohn eyeing the villain role in Marvel's Captain Marvel

LGBT
Towleroad a step-by-step sculpture of Freddie Mercury
Metro John Boyega is still being asked questions about whether Poe and Finn are gay for each other in Star Wars
Gr8er Days There's a documentary coming about the gay actor who starred in A Nightmare on Elm Street 2: Freddy's Revenge

RIP
EW Actor Robert Guillaume, best known for his classic "Soap" character Benson (so popular he spun off into an even more popular series "Benson") but whose career hit all three acting mediums has died at 90.
Browbeat Legendary musician Fats Domino has died

Soundtracking: "The Rocky Horror Picture Show"

Happy Halloween! Chris Feil's look at music in the movies takes on the genre-bending musical classic...

The Rocky Horror Show is a peculiar kind of musical. Quickly dismissed on the stage, it will always be more at home in the cinema, adding Picture to the title and thus embodying its B-movie inspirations. With its notorious run from flop to cult sensation to now subdued midnight ritual, this musical belongs to the masses in a way unlike any other. But weirdly the music itself feels tangential to the cultdom - isn’t it strange that one of the most famous musicals is seldom celebrated for the music itself?

Or maybe if any of the songs themselves are cherished, it’s the worst number in the lineup. Come now, you know that “The Time Warp” is Rocky Horror’s worst song. I know it, you know it, we all know it (The banister knows it!)...

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This Is Halloween

By Salim Garami

What's Good? We're less than a week away from the spookiest time of the year so let's talk about what the holiday means in the cinematic sense. These are personal impressions and I hope you'll share your own as well.

We start with the actual season in itself: the autumn colors are there in a very muted way that signify the beginning of the end of the year in all its resigned reds and oranges. The palette chases away the greens and blues that took over the summer, although one could certainly see faint glimmers of those colors to remind us of the months past. Such as in Spielberg's E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial and its Halloween scene, glowing with yellowish twilight and orange rays in the sun that reflect on the suburban homes and streets Elliot and his friends walk...

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