Emmy Predictions: Comedy Categories

By Abe Friedtanzer

Anthony Carrigan and Michael Irby in Barry

Whereas the drama series race can only bring back three of last year’s nominees, six of the comedy honorees are eligible again this year (Hacks and Curb Your Enthusiasm are the two that aren’t). It’s also the final season of heavyweights like The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, Barry, and Ted Lasso  along with two other past nominees, Atlanta and Dead to Me. There’s a slate of new shows in contention, like The Bear, Wednesday, Shrinking, and Poker Face, and it’s important not to forget the show that’s on the rise and likely to be the one to beat this year: Abbott Elementary.

The true challenge of predicting these races is the number of nominees in each based on the number of submissions on the ballot, especially in comparison to the drama categories. Both supporting races only have seven nominees, not eight. Lead actor and actress have five, not six. And the directing and writing categories each have six, but one of the directing nominees has to be a multi-camera show (which has resulted in surprising nominees like B Positive and especially The Ms. Pat Show, which is eligible again this year). There are going to be many deserving shows and performers snubbed as a result, and it’s almost impossible to choose what will get left off and what will make the cut. But let’s try…

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Emmy Predictions: Limited/Anthology Series & TV Movies

By Abe Friedtanzer

Lizzy Caplan and Jesse Eisenberg in Fleishman Is In Trouble

Maybe it’s just been a busy year, but I feel like I’m very out of the loop with this whole slate. As is my practice  I watched the first episode of just about everything, but with a few notable exceptions, like Fleishman Is In Trouble, The Patient, Ms. Marvel, and Obi-Wan Kenobi, I didn’t actually make it to the end of many of this past seasons contenders for limited series. In most cases, it wasn’t lack of interest but rather time. That’s going to make for an unusually hectic summer when I’m inevitably going to try to finish up all of the eventual nominees. Fortunately, I have been paying attention to the heavy hitters in awards buzz. That doesn't help narrow down the contenders much, though, since the field feels wide open.  

The surest things across the board in the limited categories are Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story and Black Bird, both of which performed well at the end of last year for those awards groups that aren't quite on Emmy's timetable...

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Emmy Predictions: Drama Categories

The White Lotus, now competing as a drama this year

By Abe Friedtanzer 

This is a very competitive year for drama at the Emmys. Last year, Succession and The White Lotus scored fourteen and eight acting nominations, respectively, and The Handmaid’s Tale, which wasn’t eligible last year, picked up ten the year before that. If they show up in similar numbers this year, that accounts for thirty-two spots, and there are only forty acting nominees in total! Changes in voting rules mean that it’s unlikely shows will dominate quite so much, but the first two of those are still extremely popular. And while other awards bodies have largely abandoned The Handmaid’s Tale, it’s worth noting that Emmy voters sometimes stick by shows longer (see Killing Eve).  

Exactly three of last year’s nominees for Best Drama Series are back in contention, and they’re all expected to show up in many places: Succession, Better Call Saul, and Yellowjackets...

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Emmy Ballots Are Here!

By Abe Friedtanzer 

The Roy siblings, all now leads for Succession

Emmy voting is officially open with the release of this year’s ballots. As usual, it’s an exhausting list to process, in part because it’s harder to notice who’s missing than to raise an eyebrow at the surprise inclusions. As always, Supporting Actor in a Drama Series boasts the most contenders, though that number is only 345 this time around, down almost 100 from last year. Is there less TV on? Because it certainly doesn’t feel way. Coincidentally, 345 is also the number of pages you need to scroll through in order to see all the acting submissions...

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Tony Awards Tonight (!!!) Last Minute Predictions

by Patrick Ball

"Beautiful Noise: The Neil Diamond Musical" will perform tonight despite being shut out of the nominations. Photo credit: Matthew Murphy

The day is upon us, the 2023 Tony Awards are here! But, this isn’t your grandma’s Tony Awards, expect a bit of a different show this year. Due to complications from the ongoing WGA writer’s strike, the awards show telecast was initially canceled, then was subsequently given the green light providing it does not rely upon a written script. In other words, we won’t see any presenters reaching for their glasses to read a teleprompter. Also expect little banter or much at all from host Ariana Debose after her (presumably not original) Opening Number. It looks to be mostly a straightforward show of performances and awards. And boy, they’ve packed the show with performances. Not only are all the nominated musicals performing, but we can expect performances from non-nominated shows like A Beautiful Noise: The Neil Diamond Musical, a performance from Lea Michele currently starring in last season’s Funny Girl, then a misfire, now a smash, and one from Joaquina Kalukango, last year’s Actress in a Musical winner who brought the house down with her performance of “Let it Burn” from the ill-fated Paradise Square. 

And how was the year in “thea-turh” on The American Stage? From the looks of these nominees, it was a great season...

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