April Foolish Pt 6 - Guesswork on 'Best Actress'

by Nathaniel R

Florence Pugh in The Wonder © Netflix

The past two years of Best Actress races have been incredible rides when uncertainty reigned about who might win. That's highly unusual which is why we prefer speculating about nominations when truly everything is up in the air... at least until precursors start arriving but that's still 8 months away. On the April Foolish top 20 BEST ACTRESS CHART you'll find 9 previous winners including Cate Blanchett and Olivia Colman, 5 (mostly) younger nominees still building momentum towards their first win including Florence Pugh and Margot Robbie, and 6 women who've never landed a nomination though one of them (Michelle Yeoh) already should have.

OKAY DRUMROLL PLEASE... AND THE PREDICTIVE 5 ARE... 

Tomorrow we'll conclude the first wave of prediction charts with Best Picture and Best Director...

Oscar Charts *ALL NEW*
Prediction Index | Lead Actress | | Lead Actor | Supporting Actress | Supporting Actor | Screenplays | Visual Charts | Music Charts | Animated Feature Chart 

April Foolish Pt 5 - Who will be our new 'Best Actor'?

by Nathaniel R

Hmmmm. Could Hugh Jackman pick up another Tony and the Oscar in the next 10 months?

Which actor will pull an Andrew Garfield this year and get the internet excited about his work with renewed passion? Which actor will pull a Benedict Cumberbatch and become the year's critical darling only to lose the statue? Which actor will pull a Will Smith and be the slam dunk winner due to a well liked performance and his entire career beforehand? We can't possibly know yet but we can speculate about it. So let's do that.

Internet Passions? My crystal ball says either Austin Butler (Elvis), Colin Farrell (Banshees of Inisherin), or Brendan Fraser (The Whale)

Critical Darling? Hmmm. Adam Driver (White Noise), Viggo Mortensen (Crimes of the Future), or Colman Domingo (Rustin)

"It's Time" Career Win Possibilities? Hugh Jackman (The Son), Colin Farrell or Brendan Gleeson (Banshees of Inisherin), Adam Driver (White Noise)

OKAY DRUMROLL PLEASE... AND THE PREDICTIVE 5 ARE... 

Oscar Charts *ALL NEW*
Prediction Index | Lead Actor | Supporting Actress | Supporting Actor | Screenplays | Visual Charts | Music Charts | Animated Feature Chart 

April Foolish Pt 5: Best Supporting Actress Possibilities

One thing years of doing the Supporting Actress Smackdown has reminded us of is that though the Academy is sometimes more adventurous with supporting nominations as opposed to leads (in that they'll consider eccentric performances or comic ones slightly more often) they still don't veer too far from their comfort zones of drama, prestige adaptations, heavy tears and the like. But how cool would it be if the Academy really let loose, did something atypical and catapulted themselves into the multiverse ala Everything Everywhere All At Once and found a universe where they would awards stuff like Jamie Lee Curtis's very game, vanity-free, and quite hilarious performance as a IRS auditor. In this same alternate universe they might be more drawn to Nicole Kidman's wilder artistic impulses which are reportedly on display in the backhalf of The Northman, but which they've ignored at the Academy since forever. In the same category of potentially provocative characters, we're on pins and needles wondering what Greta Gerwig will do with her "Babette" role in White Noise.

We're also hoping Whoopi Goldberg (Till), Audra McDonald (Rustin), and Hong Chau (The Whale) have great roles though obviously their parts in these projects could be more tiny and decorative, too. It's all blindfolded conjecture at this point though Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon), Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans) and Samantha Morton (She Said) feel like solid bets this far out. CHECK OUT THE NEW CHART FOR THE APRIL FOOLISH PREDICTIONS IN THIS CATEGORY

Oscar Charts ALL NEW 
Prediction Index | Supporting Actress | Supporting Actor | Screenplays | Visual Charts | Music Charts | Animated Feature Chart 

April Foolish Oscar Predix Pt 3 - Visual Categories

by Nathaniel R

Will ELVIS get the usual Catherine Martin nominations for a Bazmark production?

The April Foolish predictions continue with the visual categories which means the rest of the week is the highest profile of categories: Actors, Directors, and Pictures. Obviously this is too early for confidence -- especially in below the line categories since many films haven't released a single image yet. Much will change including which films get released but we'd hold up our year in advance prediction records against anyones.  At this point the only thing anyone has to go on is a) previous work from the craftsmen involved, b) whether the film might have a "Most" boost (contemporary set pictures generally struggle in the visual categories even when they're brilliant), c) hunches aka crystal ball projections as to how the film involved might fare overall. Regarding the latter, it's commonly understood that Best Picture heat will help you in every category even though each should be judged on its own merits.

Check out the charts, won'cha? Two items of discussion we wanted to underline follow after the jump...

Click to read more ...

April Foolish Oscar Predix Pt 2 - Screenplay, Scores, Song, Sound

Previously: Pt 1 Animated Features

A promo still from SPIRITED © Apple TV+

We're dropping the April Foolish Oscar Predictions daily for a week and that should take us through Cannes when the game shifts again with lots of new information to process. Excuse our sibilant sssssssss today but it's time for the two screenplay categories, and the three sound related categories.

Are There Any Musicals This Year?
Yes but not like last season. 2021 was shocking with 11 musicals released though only three turned into real Oscar players (Encanto, tick tick BOOM!, and West Side Story) This year there are half as many. We're getting a Nicholas Britell scored version of Carmen (directed by Mr Natalie Portman himself Benjamin Milipied), Apple TV+ is releasing Spirited, a new musical take of the constantly retold Scrooge story with Will Ferrell and Ryan Reynolds in the leading roles...

Click to read more ...