Nathaniel's final predix: What kind of Oscar night will we be having?

by Nathaniel R

The big story from the SAG Awards last weekend was the continuing rise of Conclave and A Complete Unknown in the awards race. The fires in Los Angeles had previously wreaked havoc on people’s lives, many of whom work in the industry we obsess over so the event carried that story forward. More superficially (we recognize that this hardly matters in context!) the fires disrupted the usual flow from December’s mandatory “Best of” list explosion through the call and response of the various precursors and on to Oscar night. This makes it far more difficult than usual to predict what’s coming as there’s not necessarily any cause and effect from one event to the next given the messy timelines of voting. 

How much did the Emilia Perez scandal hurt a film oscar voters clearly loved in January? How many more voters watched I’m Still Here AFTER its surprising success on nomination morning? Do people love The Brutalist or merely admire it? Is Anora really out front as the DGA and PGA suggest? Will Conclave prove the adult contemporary tune that tops the charts amongst a sea of rowdy garage band hits (Anora, The Substance), folksy callbacks (A Complete Unknown) and would-be operatic bangers (The Brutalist, Emilia Perez, Dune Part Two)? I have so many questions...

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Oscar Volleys: Best Director Looks Like Baker v Corbet

The Oscar Volleys are back for some post-nomination talks. Today, Eric Blume and Nick Taylor discuss the Best Actor race...

A COMPLETE UNKNOWN | © Searchlight Pictures

ERIC: Nick, it's time for us to go tete à tete encore with another Oscar volley, this time for Best Director.  Before we get into the race itself, which seems probably between Brady Corbet and Sean Baker, how do you feel about the nominated five?

 

NICK: It's a respectable bunch! Generally speaking, I am a fan of the sheer ambition represented by everyone who is not James Mangold, and the success at realizing their vision represented by everyone who is not Jacques Audiard...

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Winners of the 40th Independent Spirit Awards

by Nick Taylor

Last night, the 40th Indie Spirit Awards came and went. The SAG Awards could begin at any moment, meaning we'll have a better sense on whether certain wins here might reverberate into the Oscars next week. Even taking the Oscar-adjacency of several winners into consideration, this is a solid pack of winners, with a couple pleasant surprises along with some disappointing rubber-stamping. Here's the list of winners from this year's Indie Spirit Awards, with some delightful commentary from yours truly. If you want to go back and watch the show, Film Independent has uploaded the ceremony in its entirety on YouTube. Click here to watch it!...

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Oscar Volley: "Anora" takes the lead in Best Original Screenplay

The Oscar Volleys are back for some post-nomination talks. Today, Abe Friedtanzer and Eurocheese discuss Best Original Screenplay...

ANORA | © NEON Rated

ABE: Eurocheese, always a pleasure to get to talk to you about movies! I think we got a great category this time - Best Original Screenplay - which is actually quite a competitive race! The WGA rules meant that only two of the Oscar nominees are recognized by that guild too, which did make room for one of my favorite movies of the year, My Old Ass. But at the Oscars we have a race that's legitimately a three-way competition. I think we can safely rule out September 5, a film which I think is excellent but which didn't get any other nominations, including Best Film Editing, so I can't see a scenario where it has a path to victory here.

Similarly, A Real Pain, initially conceived as a potential frontrunner, missed the Best Picture list and only scored one additional nomination (which it can probably win) for Kieran Culkin. It's hard to see it having enough support here. That brings us to the other three nominees. I would have said Anora was the clear number one pick here, but precursors aren't looking that way.

Where do you think the race stands?...

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The 13th Annual Team Experience Awards: NOMINATIONS ANNOUNCEMENT!

by Cláudio Alves

THE BRUTALIST | © A24

The Brutalist leads the nominations for the 13th annual Team Experience Awards. Brady Corbet's Oscar player scored in seven categories, including Best Picture, Director, and Actor. The film premiered on digital today, so if you missed it in theaters, it's time to give this epic a look. Many other Oscar frontrunners appeared on our ballots, with every one of AMPAS' Best Picture nominees featured in one category or another. As always, it's a fascinating mix of prestige fare and outré offerings, awards magnets, and obscure titles that got here on the basis of a few writers' burning passion. These awards are a testament to the variety of opinions featured on The Film Experience, having been voted by several members of its team. With the notable exception of Nathaniel, whose Film Bitch Awards are another matter altogether.

Discover the full list of nominees in 20 categories after the jump…

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