Who'll be this years' surprise snub?

by Cláudio Alves

Nathaniel's final predictions will be up tomorrow morning but until then, let's talk potential snubs. Oscar nomination morning usually holds a few surprises. Sometimes, everything goes according to plan and the performers singled out by the precursors appear in their entirety but that's a rare event. We're thankful for that since the opposite would be dreadfully boring. Usually, there's one big snub like Timothée Chalamet for Beautiful Boy, Amy Adams for Arrival, Idris Elba for Beasts of No Nation, Jennifer Anniston for Cake or Tom Hanks for Captain Phillips. At the last minute, they all failed to secure an expected nod.

Of this year's crop of contenders, 12 have conquered nods from the Golden Globes, BAFTAs, SAGs, and Critics Choice Awards. Many pundits say DiCaprio is the most vulnerable and we should never be sure about Hanks given his recent Oscar history. Still, the rest of them seem solid if not altogether locked. Unless, of course, Margot Robbie manages to upset everyone and get in for the Tarantino flick instead of Bombshell. You can never know for sure, that's the eternal truth about prognosticating. 

All that said, here are those 12 contenders...

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Renee Zellweger is back... with a singular and weird Globes speech

by Murtada Elfadl

Usually actors try to find the perfect balance of sincere, hilarious and warm when delivering an acceptance speech. It’s a plus if they can marry something personal to them with something meaningful to a room full of their colleagues and to the audience at home. It’s very rare that someone takes the stage and proceeds to be confrontational, but that’s exactly what Renée Zellweger did Sunday night while accepting the trophy for best performance by an actress in a drama...

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My Ride or Die - Elisabeth Moss

by Ginny O'Keefe

Awards season is well upon us which means lists of our favorite performances and films. For many years I’ve had a “Ride or Die” performer who I would root for throughout all of awards season hoping they would get a longshot nomination. Last year my ride or die was Toni Collette for Hereditary, a performance that was criminally unrecognized -- the snubbing of said performance will leave me bitter for years to come. Several years before my Ride or Die was Benicio Del Toro’s haunting and hurting performance for Sicario. So as you can tell, my Ride or Die basically sums up performances that have no chance of winning or even being nominated for any major awards. Nevertheless they stay in my heart throughout the Globes, the SAGS, the Independent Spirit Awards and of course the Oscars.

A few weeks ago I attended a screening of Alex Ross Perry’s Her Smell at the Aero Theatre in Santa Monica with a Q&A afterward with Elisabeth Moss and I realized less than eight minutes into Moss’ Becky Something launching herself into the scene like an unstable ball of light, that Moss was my Ride or Die this season...

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Chart Updates - All Acting Categories

Is it us or are the four of the acting races murkier than they usually would be during the week of Oscar voting? We chalk this up to a bit less precursor uniformity between Critics Choice, Globes, SAG nods, and the regional critical consensus. On the other hand that regional critical consensus has been very pronounced with a clear lineup of winners that go like so: Parasite/Bong Joon Ho / Nyongo / Driver / Dern / Pitt. But what we're dealing with right now is the nomination game which is far more complex than "who wins".

BEST ACTRESS - Six women are still very much in the mix and it's quite difficult to guess who will be left out. Passion suggests that Cynthia Erivo or Charlize Theron would be in danger of the "snub" but on the other hand you're not often the snubbee if you're the one doing the biographical role... especially if there's mimicry. For now we've opted to have Saoirse Ronan be the odd woman out but that doesn't feel right either given the very current groundswell of love for that picture. At any rate we think it's between the six listed on the chart with Alfre Woodard (Clemency) and Awkwafina (The Farewell) staring to look like impossible dreams in this final decision week...

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Near Misses: Emma Thompson in "Saving Mr. Banks"

by Cláudio Alves

As we know, the precursors don't always matter. Many an actor was Oscar-nominated without a SAG, Golden Globe or BAFTA nod to recommend them. Of course, for every surprise inclusion, there's a shocking snub to contend with. There are those performers that seemed like near locks up until nomination morning. When they failed to stick the landing, predictors were surprised and fans thrown into paroxysms of outrage. These near misses can be precious jewels of acting that were unforgivably shortchanged, while, other times, we can count ourselves spared a nomination for mediocre work.

In 2013, Emma Thompson was nominated for the SAG, the Globes, the BAFTA, the Critics Choice Award and even won the National Board of Review prize for her performance as P.L. Travers in Saving Mr. Banks. The Academy, however, ignored her. Compared to some of the actual Oscar nominees, Thompson's work is, at the very least, an impressive achievement and deserving of recognition…

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