Oscar Volleys: Four locks, and the race for the fifth spot in Best Actor

Continuing our Oscar Volley series at The Film Experience. Tonight Gabriel Mayora and Ben Miller on Best Actor in a Leading Role

Ben Miller: My big question: is this a race only for the fifth slot? Will Smith, Benedict Cumberbatch, Andrew Garfield, and Denzel Washington all feel locked in. Is there any vulnerability in that top four?

Gabriel Mayora: I am surprised by how excited this self-professed raging actressexual™ (thank you to Nathaniel for that genius term) is to discuss this year's Best Actor category. Most years I find it hard to muster much enthusiasm for this category, but maybe after seeing the race take some surprising shifts last year, I have a renewed interest. I  agree with you that Smith, Cumberbatch, Garfield, and --to a slightly lesser extent, maybe? -- Washington are all locks, there is little room for surprise come nomination morning.

And while my first instinct is to complain about the Academy's lack of originality, I can't say I blame them. Those four are all so good...

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Best Actor - Just how volatile is that fifth spot?

by Nathaniel R

Former Oscar winners: Denzel, Nicolas (and Javier Bardem) all rising on the chart

Oscar chart update time. The SAG nominations threw a wrench into Best Actor predictions with the inclusion of the polarizing performance (or rather polarizing casting) of Javier Bardem as Desi Arnaz in Being the Ricardos. But is he really a threat to the nomination? Probably, yes, as Oscar's acting branch loves almost nothing more than celebrities playing other celebrities. Not all biopics are about celebrities or star bonafide celebrities so this is a special awards-magnetized division of the overall 'genre' if you will. We think he might be nominated -- especially if Nicole Kidman becomes the clear favourite in Best Actress -- but he's hardly locked up. Especially because it seems extra foolish to assume his nomination chances are as sturdy as the other four SAG nominees (Will Smith, Andrew Garfield, Benedict Cumberbatch, Denzel Washington) who have all scored at all three important precursors (which Bardem has not). 

Our conclusion. The fifth spot is a true free-for-all...

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SAG Nominations - Movies

We'll have a separate post for the TV nominations a little later today but first, the MOVIE nominations. 

OUTSTANDING ACTRESS

• Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
• Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
• Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
• Jennifer Hudson, Respect
• Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos

Instant Impression: The morning's biggest shock -- no Kristen Stewart in Spencer. I'm okay with this but the internet won't be...

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Streaming Roulette, January: Being the Lost Daughter of the Manor

What's streaming in January? You know the drill by now. We pick a handful of titles and freeze them on the scroll bar at a random place (no cheating) and share what came up. Let's go.

[Crying in distance]

The Lost Daughter (2021) on Netflix
It's apt that our streaming roulette landed on this image of Leda (Jessie Buckley) ignoring her children. The discourse about this movie has been weirdly reductive and centered on freaking out that she's a "bad mother". I have no idea what ot make of this film's Oscar chances. Critics have been kind but it's an irritable confrontational movie i.e. not what Oscar usually goes for. And Netflix has soooo much on their plate in terms of Best Picture. 

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Best International Film: Chile, Netherlands, Spain

by Cláudio Alves

I'm pleased to bring you the annual grouped reviews of the less high profile submissions for Best International Film Oscar. Many major contenders have already been reviewed (check the end of this article for links), but others remain unexamined. With 93 titles to consider, that's bound to happen. So as we wait for December 21st, when the Academy announces its 15-wide shortlist for this particular race, let's take a look at some of those submissions, starting with three previous champions from the category's history.

Chile won once before, while the Netherlands has three Oscars, and Spain counts four previous victories. This year, they submitted a portrait of colonialism, a drama about war's hell, and a dark comedy starring an Oscar-winning international star… 

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