New Oscar Predictions: Acting Categories... Locked Up or Not?

By Nathaniel R

Post SAG & Globe Nominations each year oscar's acting categories start feeling locked up. But here's something always worth remembering: Each year brings us 1 or 2 new additions to the "nominated for SAG & Globe but still missed Oscar" close-but-no-cigar club.  This year in particular seems unlikely to have as much exact 5/5 correlation due to the double whammy of Oscar's acting branch voting a little later than usual (they don't get ballots until January 5th) and the precursors voting a smidge earlier than usual. The next two weeks are crucial; no one who is remotely close to a nomination should give up just yet.

ACTRESS
Portman has been winning lots of critics awards but, strangely, her film (just as strong or even stronger than her eery performance) isn't doing as well. She's not exactly locked for a second win but she's definitely giving Emma Stone a fright and probably preventing Amy Adams or Annette Bening from dreaming of their first very long-awaited wins. The nomination race is even tighter...

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Catching up w/ Critics Prizes: Chicago, London, Kansas City, and SEFCA

Another week another big round of critics prizes. As previously noted we only cover about 16 groups (for sanity purposes) so here were a fourth of them as announced these past few days.

CHICAGO FILM CRITICS ASSOCIATION

Chicago's association was first established in 1988 with a Best Picture prize for Mississippi Burning of all things. This year they liked The Handmaiden so much that it even broke into their Best Picture nomination, a rarity for the group. The last foreign language film to do so with Chicago was Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon back in 2000. It won three prizes, just shy of what Manchester by the Sea managed...

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Screenplay Shake Up Means New Predictions

We warned everyone to not "lock" up any screenplay predictions too early, especially when the provenance of a screenplay is confusing, and our warnings were not in vain. The Academy has rejected the campaigns of Loving and Moonlight as "Originals" and they have been moved to the "Adapted" category. Both had made no secret that they were inspired by other works, despite their Original campaigns. Loving is partially based on the documentary The Loving Story (2011) and Moonlight on an unproduced play (of sorts -- though now the playwright is saying it never was intended as a play... which makes the situation yet more confusing) called "In Moonlight Black Boys Look Blue". Regardless, the murkiness was enough for the Academy to cry foul on their preferred Original designations.  (If only the Academy's acting branch would play this kind of interference when obviously lead acting roles like Rooney Mara in Carol or Hugh Grant in Florence Foster Jenkins or dozens of others in recent years claimed "supporting" designation.)

Prior to this Academy ruling, the Original Screenplay competition looked enormously competitive with a nail-biting battle between Manchester by the Sea and Moonlight for the gold. Now both movies -- arguably the two biggest critical darlings of the year -- have a clearer shot at a win but it does make the competition for the other four nominations in each category more exciting and open. Both charts have been updated accordingly. Which screenplays do you think benefit from this ruling? 

Beauty Break: Ruth Negga For Vogue

Chris here with some leading lady gorgeousness. We're big fans of Ruth Negga's Loving performance here at The Film Experience, and hopeful for her Oscar chances in a crowded Best Actress year. Regardless of whether or not she is one of the eventual five nominees, you can bet on Ruth continuing to serve a fantastic fashion game all season long.

And wouldn't you know, she's on the January cover of Vogue! In the interview (after a stunning spread with costar Joel Edgerton in the November issue) the actress describes Loving as a "before and after" role for her, still a bit reserved to her newfound attention. But how can we not be in awe of her with a performance like this and her laidback charm - not to mention her fashion prowess! Check out the photoshoot after the jump...

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On Ruth Negga's emotional power in "Loving"

by Murtada

Ruth Negga gives Loving its heart and soul. From the very first frame, director Jeff Nichols relies on her expressive face to tell the story of Mildred and Richard Loving, the mixed race couple at the center of 1967 Supreme Court ruling that changed anti-miscegenation laws. The Lovings paved the way for generations of mixed race families. Nichols starts with Negga, his camera moving into a close up. A silent moment as we take in her big-eyed, made-for-cinema face. Then the line “I’’m pregnant” and we're swept right into this couple’s story. No need for us to see how they met and fell in love. Negga tells us the whole story with her face and delivery of that line.

Throughout the film, which puts the court cases to the periphery, it’s Negga's face that continues to tell the story...

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