New Oscar Predictions: Acting Categories... Locked Up or Not?
Wednesday, December 21, 2016 at 6:15PM By Nathaniel R
Post SAG & Globe Nominations each year oscar's acting categories start feeling locked up. But here's something always worth remembering: Each year brings us 1 or 2 new additions to the "nominated for SAG & Globe but still missed Oscar" close-but-no-cigar club. This year in particular seems unlikely to have as much exact 5/5 correlation due to the double whammy of Oscar's acting branch voting a little later than usual (they don't get ballots until January 5th) and the precursors voting a smidge earlier than usual. The next two weeks are crucial; no one who is remotely close to a nomination should give up just yet.
ACTRESS
Portman has been winning lots of critics awards but, strangely, her film (just as strong or even stronger than her eery performance) isn't doing as well. She's not exactly locked for a second win but she's definitely giving Emma Stone a fright and probably preventing Amy Adams or Annette Bening from dreaming of their first very long-awaited wins. The nomination race is even tighter...
It's been seven women for five slots for months and each new precursor announcement keeps it that competitive. Streep and Adams, Oscar's favorite standbys, looked like they were in spots close-but-no-cigar for the longest time, but both are surging at the moment... which might be bad news for the far less celebrated likes of Negga, Bening, and Huppert. On the other hand the Loving campaign is still working hard, Bening's film is about to get its release boost, and Huppert will surely be working red carpets and is in no danger or losing her editorial appeal for media types in the 2016 wrap-up stretch. Our assumption: This stays competitive between all seven until the very last ballot is counted in mid January. If Oscar's voting procedures allowed for ties in nominations, this would probably a year where we saw an expanded category!
ACTOR
SAG nominations should theoretically assure us that Viggo Mortensen's got this but we've been worried for him all year because we're so besotted with the performance and because awards bodies (particularly critics groups -damn them!) are so obsessed with rewarding only October through December releases each year.
That SAG lineup might look set in stone now but as for us -- we still don't think Tom Hanks or Joel Edgerton are remotely out of the question come nomination morning. Andrew Garfield, weirdly, seems to have a tight hold on third place despite a star turn in Hacksaw Ridge, that swings rather dramatically between opposing poles of cringe-worthy and amazing.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Precursors have rather suddenly decided that Viola Davis and Michelle Williams shall be in locked-up battle for the win while Naomie Harris, Nicole Kidman, and Octavia Spencer will just be happy to be nominated. If you believe the precursor awards, this is the most settled of the four races.
But but but... there are still two weeks before voting begins which means there is still time for Janelle Monae or Lily Gladstone to continue to push for their own happy endings. And we can't forget Greta Gerwig who is at the exact juncture of her career (years of much loved feisty indie work behind her but still young and gorgeous and garnering ever more mainstream degrees of attention) in which many actors are suddenly noticed by Oscar. Plus she's fantastic in 20th Century Women and the only source of warmth in the otherwise (thrillingly) chilly Jackie.
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Another race that looks settled (Ali, Briges, Patel, Grant, Hedges). But this category seems ripe for an 11th hour shake up, doesn't it? Something doesn't feel quite locked up about it though given that Patel and Hedges are both really young for Oscar and Grant is in the kind of role that usually falls victim to gender biases, "dont worry honey!" long suffering spouse roles being far more golden for women then men.
But if someone surprises, who is it? Ben Foster could still theoretically benefit from Hell or High Water coattails (and his own long history of good work), Michael Shannon (an actor's actor) could theoretically be Nocturnal Animals' big awards play still despite that odd Golden Globe decision. And we should definitely continue to ponder why buzz never coalesced around able supporting men like Peter Sarsgaard in Jackie or Stephen Henderson in Fences or why everyone thought it was a good idea to ignore three super brilliant performances from earlier in the year (Tom Bennett, Love & Friendship, Ralph Fiennes, A Bigger Splash, and Alden Ehrenreich, Hail Caesar) that frankly run circles around many performances that are still Oscar buzzing. Or will Oscar voters like Silence (Liam Neeson? Issey Ogata?) way more than the current buzz or precursors suggest; they will, after all, have more time to process it.
ALL OSCAR CHARTS UPDATED - PERUSE & REPORT BACK!
Index | Picture | Director | Foreign | Animation & Documentary
Actress | Actor | Supporting Actress | Supporting Actor
Screenplays | Visuals | Aurals
Reader Comments (78)
I think you should probably let go of Bening and add in Streep. It seems like enough people saw it to nominate her, even if it's another "meh" performance. Bening's movie came out too late.
It's also probably wise to stick with the consensus like you have. The only film that seems like it could potentially have a late surge is Silence.
I think Adams is in. They love her and the movie made money.
I can't help thinking it's going to be Denzel's third. Am I crazy? I just can't see Casey wininng
You need to swap the pictures of Jessica Chastain and Taraji P Henson.
As for your choices, I am in near-complete agreement except I think Streep gets in, probably at Bening's expense. They really blew it with the release strategy. Her film looks like it's getting lost in the end-of-year stampede.
Finally Nathaniel. Time to accept Adams' sixth nomination.
I too believe Bening will be snubbed Portman,Stone,Adams,Huppert & Streep
Nathaniel, I agree in Actor , Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress, but my predictions for Actress are : Adams, Huppert, Portman, Stone and Streep.
Portman will win because she has the performance for win,that's all
Two things I could see happening as somewhat of a surprise:
a) Liam Neeson getting in with no precursor support at the last second
b) Ruth Negga getting in (over either Huppert because the film is too out-there a la "We Need to Talk About Kevin," Streep because it's lightweight, Bening because the release date is too late)
Just saw "Other People" over the weekend, and wow, is it great. Too bad about Molly Shannon. She towers over most of the Supporting Actresses this year.
Sometimes I like to look at the minus column (wrt the narrative):
Casey Affleck: he seems to be getting a pass on that bad business, seems being the operative word. But I'm hearing a lot of (Trump-related?) anger towards him out here, and not only from women.
Andrew Garfield: the Gibson factor.
Viggo Mortensen: Jill Stein.
Denzel Washington, Ryan Gosling, Tom Hanks, Joel Edgerton, Michael Keaton: nothing in the minus column at this point.
Ultimately, I think Garfield and Affleck will coast to nominations, but the win will go to Denzel or Gosling. Still very early, though.
Isn't Jeff Bridges kind of category fraud too?
Alden Ehrenreich, Hail Caesar - how can anyone not start with this performance and add the other four from there? Pure genius.
Nathaniel- come on... Streep in 7th place!!???
Time to let Negga and Bening go.....
I have a strong feeling that a person of color will occupy space in each of the acting categories, which means that either Negga or Henson still may get in.
I also think that the most left-field nomination will come in the supporting actor race, in which case Simon Helberg's inclusion wouldn't surprise me one bit -- though Ali wins no matter who his competition is.
Supporting actress, as Nathaniel already has said, appears to be locked up, so I don't predict much change there.
All very good questions. Am I crazy to think Garfield might miss? It's not like they love him - they could have easily gone with him for The Social Network. And his votes could split. I think Viggo is solid, Affleck/Washington are clearly in and Gosling seems like a no brainer (though they've left out the musical male lead plenty of times - McGregor in MR!, Gere in Chicago - which also makes me wonder on Grant). I don't know that Hanks or Edgerton is strong enough though. I could actually see a what-the-hell surprise here OR in Supporting Actress very easily. (Jonah Hill better not.)
The Academy made a real push to add minorities to their ranks this past year. I think it might lead to Ruth Negga or Janelle Monae or Lily Gladstone or maybe someone even more unexpected surprising us on nomination morning. (My money's on Negga.)
Loving it how your Best Actress Top 3 looks exactly like I said it would in early September (post-TIFF).
You literally spent 3 months trying to convince yourself & your readers that:
- a 5-time Oscar nominee
- who stars in a universally acclaimed movie
- that's also the biggest Box Office earner of all the Best Actress movies vying for attention
is probably not going to make it.
The roster of actors that have been "settled on" for the supporting categories make me smack my head in frustration. And if they weren't uninspired enough, we've got THREE *leading* actors contending here...
I agree with everyone else - Streep is in and Bening is out. 20th Century Women should have followed the distribution strategy of The Lobster and Captain Fantastic and released last summer, not this week.
I wonder if Gosling could possibly sneak by Denzel and Affleck to win the Oscar. Affleck is getting a lot of bad publicity, and we may be seeing some resistance to giving Denzel a 3rd Oscar with Affleck's dominance of the race so far. Then again, as pointed out above, it is very hard for a man to win an Oscar for a musical.
If Portman doesn't win, it will be the first time since 1997 (right?) that none of the four acting winners win for playing real people. All of the other serious contenders play fictional creations.
Is Lion really as heavy a hitter as we are being led to believe? I'm doubting it's chances in Picture and could easily see Patel (and even Kidman) knocked out by someone waiting in the wings (Fiennes would be a fun shocker)
Oh please. If Viggo is not nomination it won't be because of the "Jill Stein" factor - not everyone is as bat-shit insane as Sasha Stone is.
Also, Emily Blunt is at least in the tier 2. She was nominated at SAG after all AND is a big star. I don't think she'll get in but she still has better odds than Chastain & Henson IMO. If we see a kind of wacky surprise, I think it will be that 5th slot in Actress or Actor, where the front runners for the win have dominated the conversation.
Makeup and Hairstyle semi-finalists announce: Looks like Florence Foster Jennings is going to win this one. The other six: Deadpool, The Dressmaker, Hail Caear!, A Man Called Ove, Star Trek Beyond, Suicide Squad.
Once again no Jackie (discreetly wipes tear from eye)
I agree that FFJ is featherweight but one can not ignore the performance by Streep. Her role was much more complex than most of the field. I say she at least gets a Best Actress nomination. Competition is tough this year.
Travis, Lion is Weinstein's baby this year. I think that's why it has done so well with awards despite slow box office, and I expect it to do well on Oscar morning.
Eoin: If Bridges and Hedges are co-leads (which, to me, they sound like) of their films? This is worse than 2010 and maybe THE banner year in the category not doing what it should. Speaking of 2010:
eurocheese: If they HAD gone with Garfield in The Social Network, there would have been NO un-arguably honest citations in 2010 Supporting Actor. (Bale, Garfield and Rush: Unarguably dishonest. Ruffalo and Renner: Arguably dishonest. Hawkes: Unarguably honest.) The second half of The Social Network is almost entirely Garfield. (Thank you, two part viewing that stopped at 55 minutes on the dot, to clarify that to me.)
Jonathan: There's, almost always, one pretty much unarguable case of category fraud (and often at least one arguable case on top of that) every year in Supporting Actor and an un-arguable case most years in Supporting Actress. (How to fix the acting nominations? Three points: 1. An outsider, insulated, arbitration board, not the studios, determines where the performances get placed, whether that's Lead or Supporting. 2. An expansion of Lead Actor to 10. Mainstream critics are often more passionate about the category fraud noms than the actual supporting turns that make it in, so to suddenly see those go away on nomination morning would turn mainstream critics against the Oscars even further. 3. The arbitration board ALSO publishing two lists every year: An "Un-nominated legends" list and an "Over-nominated" list. #SpreadTheWealth.)
There is literally nothing else standing in his way at this point. (Do not underestimate it.) And I agree with Nathaniel, he currently occupies the fifth slot - but he should be at number 4.
Fun fact: of the just under 30 times that a Best Actor nominee has come from a musical (comedy, drama, jukebox, what have you), about a third have been from musical biopics, including two of the only six* winners (Cagney, Crosby, Brynner, Harrison, Marvin and Foxx).
*unless you count Amadeus and Crazy Heart as musicals
(Just realized that The King and I is also a musical biopic...)
I'm a little perplexed at Garfield's strength in Best Actor. Affleck is has been getting every award and is going to win the Oscar.
I'm used to at least one nomination in Supporting that surprises everyone nomination morning. Just not sure who I would wager on - Molly Shannon over Octavia Spencer or Nicole Kidman? Dev Patel seems likeliest to miss out to a Michael Shannon or Peter Saarsgard.
As for best actress, I've never doubted Amy Adams would be in, think her and Portman were definitely the two spot on contenders... I really don`t understand all the love and cheering for Emma Stone to win, she`s great in La La Land but honestly, she doesn`t have the body of work of Adams ( that should win ) or Portman ( she`s so eerie in Jackie, but she already has one for Black Swan ), the only time I cared for her as an actress before Land was in Birdman, for the two last spots , again I don`t think Streep is a threat , FFJ is so lightweight , I`m actually rooting for Jessica Chastain for Miss Sloane, she`s a tour de force there and my number five would be Huppert ( although I believe the Academy will prefer the stabbing simplicity of Negga`s performance or the always delightful Bening ).
For best actor, Mortensen is so good that would be a crime not getting a nod, Washinghton is powerful and a star ( Oscar loves him, Training Day , someone ?), Affleck is devastating in Manchester, but still don`t think he`ll win, Garfield is just fine ( again, don`t get all the attention), Gosling is ok, but far from his knock out performances in Half Nelson, Blue Valentine and Drive, don`t make much of Hanks in Sully ( boring movie, standard performance) , Edgerton underplays the same way Negga does, guess if she gets a nod he will as well.
Bening getting snubbed will hurt so much because in a perfect year she would be a lock for a win. My favorite female performance this year. Portman is a close second. I thought Stone was good in La La Land but do not understand how that performance could win compared to the others. She is playing Billy Jean King next year so she'll have another chance.
I think it was Lodge who had said something like, "biopics are often a safe way to go but Portman performance in Jackie is her riskiest performance to date." She definitely did not play it safe like biopic leads often do. If she was gonna fail she was gonna fail hard and you know her critics woulda been merciless. Giving such a gutsy performance like that is to be commended.
Looking over the Visual predictions - do you really think Passengers still gets in to Visual Effects with all awful reviews? I would move that down and substitute Kubo or Fantastic Beasts.
Guys, do not worry if The Bening does not win or get nominated this year. I saw an early cut of Film Stars Don't Die In Liverpool and she is beyond amazing as Gloria Grahame. Her performance is electrifying and so layered and so is Jamie Bell's.
Jamie -- not letting Bening go until I am forced. I think it's probably the best performance of her career.
Ken -- it's so weird how groups are just refusing to honor Jackie. it's SO good.
Yavor -- i came by that opinion honestly. I loved ARRIVAL from the second i saw it but I thought it might struggle a little more than it has for nominations because sci-fi sometimes does... and it also didn't seem like an acting showcase as great as Amy is in it. Ive never disputed that she's excellent in it (just as i've never disputed that Streep is fab in Florence Foster Jenkins... ) but people like to get hung up on chastising me when i make daring predictions IF they're the kind that works against Oscar darlings. i may have been wrong this time (we'll see) BUT my willingness to be daring and follow my gut has paid off well in lots of cases i'm proud of (i remain the only pundit that never bought the Cate Blanchett in Benjamin Button thing that everyone insisted on all year long in 2008... and i'm definitely the first pundit this year that was said Huppert was going to happen.... hopefully i stay right about that one ;)
anyway my point is always that oscar favorites don't unfaillingly get nominated for everything or if they do Oscar eventually falls out of love... EXCEPT John Williams who will obviously be nominated for THE BFG this year despite literally no one remembering that movie. ;)
"you're awesome Nathaniel." "Why thank you, Nathaniel!"
carry on.
Ready -- not sure as i haven't seen either yet. The way i see iit visual effects tend to get nominated for one of two reasons only
1. people genuinely think they're terrific effects
2. people just love the movie regardless (for example, i bet if deadpool had made the finalist list it woulda been nominated simply from people loving the movie)
since Oscar has never been faithful to the harry Potter franchise in terms of visual effects, I'm guessing that if Passengers isn't in there from lack of quality it'll be KUBO or CAPTAIN AMERICA instead.
Johnny W -- THIS IS TREMENDOUS NEWS but now i am going to have to be on the lookout for Natalie Portman to get pregnant immediately with a third child or Hilary Swank to rise again. and if Bening really gets the boot this year for such a career peak, i'll have to cross my fingers that Streep and Adams both take 2017 off.
Cash -- I keep thinking NEGGA is still in too. but it's really hard to figure who gets the boot and there just isnt room for everyone and i refuse to believe that BOTH Huppert & Bening are getting cut for a Streep, Adams, Negga, Portman, Stone shortlist. It would just be too depressing. i.e. you can do career peak and be one of the best actors in the world and still get cut for another round of both Adams (super good this year but still ) & Streep (super good this year but she's been better millions of times and she's not as good as Huppert or Bening this year)
for a long time i thought Viola was insane to leave the Best Actress win on the table. but it's been remarkable how much staying power all seven of the main contenders have had. None of them are refusing to let the nomination go. So if Viola were also there -- INSANITY.
Nathaniel, I believe that as soon as you see The Bening in Film Stars all your dreams will be sweet.
A24 screwed 20th Century Women with the late release date. Did they learn anything from A Most Violent Year?
I am a bit puzzled by Garfield's run so far as well. But I think the fact that he's been campaigning hard probably helped with his nominations for SAG, and I guess BFCA and GG as a whole really bought into HR.
OMG. I love Meryl Streep, but give me a break. She doesn't deserve a nomination for this movie. It's driving me nuts!
@ Nat, Blanchett in 2008 is a very different trajectory.
1) She had been nominated three times the two years before that: Notes on a Scandal in 2006 and Golden Age + I'm Not There. in 2007 so clearly they were more than fatigued.
2) She received no Globes or SAG love.
3) She was already an Oscar winner at that point and a recent one as well.
It will be fun on nominations morning because if they announce Portman the 3rd, Streep will get in. It will be Portman, Stone and Streep, and whoever on the first two. But if three actresses ahead Portman, say bye bye to Streep.
Call me a dreamer, but I still think the line-up will be Portman, Stone, Huppert, Negga, & Bening.
Adams will be the first to cry or to sigh, followed immediately by Bening.
Nathaniel- do you honestly believe Meryl will be snubbed even while at the same time you predict FFJ getting nominations in other categories? Has that even happened before? The Hours maybe? Usually Meryl is the only nomination. I think her and Hugh are coming in as a pair.....
Adams is in. And rightly so. She hasn't deserved all her nominations, but this year Huppert > Adams > Portman > Stone (haven't seen Benning or Streep or Negga)
People, this year won't follow traditional rules. This year is just so competitive with so many oscar friendly performances in oscar friendly vehicles.
The only ones I would be surprised to see not nominated are Portman and Stone. EVERYONE else is very vulnerable and may be pushed out.
Please, no Meryl. Please.
The projected top 10 best picture noms are just so underwhelming outside of Arrival, Moonlight, and La La Land. I'm still crossing my fingers that Jackie or Loving can make it in. I think Silence will make it in for Pic/Director a la Wolf of Wall Street.
The buzz around Lion is so quiet and it's not connecting with audiences, which is concerning considering it's being billed as a crowdpleaser. I know it's Harvey's baby, but I'd have to imagine it's just barely on the cusp at 9th or 10th place.
And I agree with others that this is an atypical year and I expect to see a few shockers come Oscar morning. It will also be interesting to see who BAFTA goes for (I think Negga and Beckinsale may have strong chances there, along with Streep, Portman, and Stone. MaybeA Adams too).
Nat: I'm still hoping, in a SPECTACULARLY dishonestly chosen year (If Bridges, Patel, Grant and Hedges are all in, that means we have a Supporting Actor field FAR more dishonest than 2010), that Rickman pulls a surprise. That should, partially, be one job of critics groups in general: Helping to ensure single nominations for passed, 0 nomination, legends.
Seems a safer bet to go with Meryl and Amy since their films were successes with both audiences and critics. That is rare and usually translates to Oscar nods. I admit I am biased because I really liked their performances and their films are good.