New Oscar Predictions: Acting Categories... Locked Up or Not?
Wednesday, December 21, 2016 at 6:15PM By Nathaniel R
Post SAG & Globe Nominations each year oscar's acting categories start feeling locked up. But here's something always worth remembering: Each year brings us 1 or 2 new additions to the "nominated for SAG & Globe but still missed Oscar" close-but-no-cigar club. This year in particular seems unlikely to have as much exact 5/5 correlation due to the double whammy of Oscar's acting branch voting a little later than usual (they don't get ballots until January 5th) and the precursors voting a smidge earlier than usual. The next two weeks are crucial; no one who is remotely close to a nomination should give up just yet.
ACTRESS
Portman has been winning lots of critics awards but, strangely, her film (just as strong or even stronger than her eery performance) isn't doing as well. She's not exactly locked for a second win but she's definitely giving Emma Stone a fright and probably preventing Amy Adams or Annette Bening from dreaming of their first very long-awaited wins. The nomination race is even tighter...
It's been seven women for five slots for months and each new precursor announcement keeps it that competitive. Streep and Adams, Oscar's favorite standbys, looked like they were in spots close-but-no-cigar for the longest time, but both are surging at the moment... which might be bad news for the far less celebrated likes of Negga, Bening, and Huppert. On the other hand the Loving campaign is still working hard, Bening's film is about to get its release boost, and Huppert will surely be working red carpets and is in no danger or losing her editorial appeal for media types in the 2016 wrap-up stretch. Our assumption: This stays competitive between all seven until the very last ballot is counted in mid January. If Oscar's voting procedures allowed for ties in nominations, this would probably a year where we saw an expanded category!
ACTOR
SAG nominations should theoretically assure us that Viggo Mortensen's got this but we've been worried for him all year because we're so besotted with the performance and because awards bodies (particularly critics groups -damn them!) are so obsessed with rewarding only October through December releases each year.
That SAG lineup might look set in stone now but as for us -- we still don't think Tom Hanks or Joel Edgerton are remotely out of the question come nomination morning. Andrew Garfield, weirdly, seems to have a tight hold on third place despite a star turn in Hacksaw Ridge, that swings rather dramatically between opposing poles of cringe-worthy and amazing.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Precursors have rather suddenly decided that Viola Davis and Michelle Williams shall be in locked-up battle for the win while Naomie Harris, Nicole Kidman, and Octavia Spencer will just be happy to be nominated. If you believe the precursor awards, this is the most settled of the four races.
But but but... there are still two weeks before voting begins which means there is still time for Janelle Monae or Lily Gladstone to continue to push for their own happy endings. And we can't forget Greta Gerwig who is at the exact juncture of her career (years of much loved feisty indie work behind her but still young and gorgeous and garnering ever more mainstream degrees of attention) in which many actors are suddenly noticed by Oscar. Plus she's fantastic in 20th Century Women and the only source of warmth in the otherwise (thrillingly) chilly Jackie.
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Another race that looks settled (Ali, Briges, Patel, Grant, Hedges). But this category seems ripe for an 11th hour shake up, doesn't it? Something doesn't feel quite locked up about it though given that Patel and Hedges are both really young for Oscar and Grant is in the kind of role that usually falls victim to gender biases, "dont worry honey!" long suffering spouse roles being far more golden for women then men.
But if someone surprises, who is it? Ben Foster could still theoretically benefit from Hell or High Water coattails (and his own long history of good work), Michael Shannon (an actor's actor) could theoretically be Nocturnal Animals' big awards play still despite that odd Golden Globe decision. And we should definitely continue to ponder why buzz never coalesced around able supporting men like Peter Sarsgaard in Jackie or Stephen Henderson in Fences or why everyone thought it was a good idea to ignore three super brilliant performances from earlier in the year (Tom Bennett, Love & Friendship, Ralph Fiennes, A Bigger Splash, and Alden Ehrenreich, Hail Caesar) that frankly run circles around many performances that are still Oscar buzzing. Or will Oscar voters like Silence (Liam Neeson? Issey Ogata?) way more than the current buzz or precursors suggest; they will, after all, have more time to process it.
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Index | Picture | Director | Foreign | Animation & Documentary
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Reader Comments (78)
"That should, partially, be one job of critics groups in general: Helping to ensure single nominations for passed, 0 nomination, legends."
er, no.
Johnny W-was this at an advanced screening? I hadn't heard much from Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool, and wondered if it had done any advanced screenings. Really want The Bening to finally win a long overdue Oscar. If Oscar voters truly rank nominees by a passion vote, as much as I love all of the performances, I can't see how Bening is ranked below Adams, Streep, or Negga on their ballots. 20th Century Women is such a strong role for her with so many critics calling it a career best. I still won't expect her to win, but it would at least make her an even stronger contender for next year.
Aaron -- i wonder about this 'not connecting with audiences' thing with LION. everyone i've talked to (other than some hardened critics who wouldn't be likely to love this kind of weepie true story) have loved it... maybe it's just so many movies of quality all out at once that it can be hard to stand out (or even be selected for viewing) and that's why it's not gaining more momentum. or maybe it's that it's barely in any theaters and entirely banking on Oscar noms to actually create word of mouth and expand? It's only in 16 theaters after a month... so my guess is they're just playing that don't spend money and expand until the last second waiting game but we know that can backfire from past experience so we'll see.
Jamie -- that's a good question. Meryl is often the only significant nomination from her movies but, let's be honest, that's because she doesn't make very many high quality movies that you could nominate in lots of places. Florence Foster Jenkins is actually fairly high quality (craft-wise, plus her co-star even better than her, etcetera) if it had been a bigger hit and more criticially acclaimed it would be easy to imagine it getting several nominations. Normally i wouldn't predict anything that insane (given the history) but we've rarely seen a year like this when precursors did not settle the field and it stayed uber competitive up until nomination in Best Actress. She missed the Critics Choice regular acting field nominations (which she's never missed for any of her Oscar nominations this century) so we have to believe she's not *quite* as safe as usual.
It's hard to read too much into the Globe nomination since she always gets those for her comedy roles (and the comedy roles don't always translate to Oscar: Hope Springs, Its Complicated, Mamma Mia, Death Becomes Her, She Devil) . So the only significant sign that she's fully in the hunt for a nomination in this crowded field (beyond being Meryl Streep) is the SAG nomination.
(The Hours is the only time I can think of when she was in an otherwise popular Oscar film and didnt get nominated... which is funny because she's so amazing in that. And Manchurian Candidate is the only significant example in recent years I can think of where she got precursor support for a drama that didnt translate to Oscar.)
BAFTA could be telling. They skipped her for her last two Oscar nominated roles so if she's nominated for Florence I'll have to rethink cuz they don't love her quite as much as Oscar does.
Stone
Portman
Streep
Benning
Huppert
I think 20th Century Women could just as well end up with 4 big nominations (Picture, Actress, Supporting Actress) or zero.
BAFTA may go for FFJ due to Frears, screenplay (Simon, blanking on his name), Grant, etc. Streep is loved by the Brits even more than Americans (if that is even possible). I could be wrong, but I don't think Benining's movie is registering with anyone but Oscar prognosticators.
And Lion was a thumbs down from my most trusted movie buddy.
Nicholas Martin. Charming script.
Huppert for the win :D Streep may be nominated and it is not like she doesn't deserve it - her role is complex and she gives everything she has. It is just trendy these days to bash on her for unknown reasons (yes, she has a gazillion Oscar nominations but there are no actresses with a similar resume)
I have a feeling that we will have a huge La La Land sweep, so maybe Emma Stone will win the Oscar without any early awards.
With the Academy's reminder list coming out in the last 24 hours I'm afraid we have to say goodbye to long-shot possibilities:
Sonia Braga - Aquarius
Craig Robinson - Morris from America
(I think these are the highest profile films to fall at this hurdle, there's always a couple)
There are no actresses with a similar resume, enough said.
Jack - I'm not sure who you are talking about...Streep? Bening?!
Regardless, who gives a fuck. Resume doesn't matter. It's like people saying, oh no, Portman can't win again, she's an inconsistent actress and Bening is an overall better more consistent actress.
So dumb. The winner should be the best performance in their category that year.
I don't care if you think Portman has done nothing but shit since Black Swan (it's true) or if you think Bening is more much more talented than Stone (she absolutely is), it does not matter. The award isn't the "Actress who I think is most talented" award or the "Actress who has the best Career" or "The Actress who gave the best performance this year that has not already won in a prior year" award. It is the whole reason that academy awards are hard to win - you never know what actress is going to come from out of nowhere and knock your socks off.
Huh, read Daniel B. comment.
I don't care who win, they all deserve it. But all comments that look down on Meryl Streep, that I can't stand. I'm glad she's an underdog this year. Hope she'll pull a Judy Holiday.
Stone in for sure, but honestly ......way too overrated. She has Chazelle to thank! Who can't sing pr dance these days. Look at Streep in Mama Mia & Ricki & The Flash. Stone should have won for Birdman, not La La Land (although chances are really almost 90%, just not fair - but never fair anyway). As for Streep, FFJ wasn't a what seemed easy character to portray, but Streep performed with finesse. That's all
(Haven't seen Arrival, Elle, Loving or 20th Century Women, so can't comment).
But of the Best Actress potentials - I liked Portman in the 'day/night of assination' scenes. Emma-I didn't think she did anything spectular 'til her dinner scene with Gosling. Halfway through the film, I couldn't figure out what her hype was. I'd still place Streep a notch above Stone. She really did a lot in FFJenkins. If she didn't make the cut, I'd blame it on voters short-term memories to only nominate stuff they remember from the months of November/December or because of the Academy's quest to purge away voters who love these types of 'fuddy-duddy' films.
S.Actor - I'd drop the kid from Manchester. Seemed like a typical teenager angst performance, but I can see him riding the wave. Patel seems like category fraud. I thought Maheshala Ali was good in Moonlight, but the hype overkill of nominating 'him' made he scratch my head asking if I missed something. He didn't really do anything 'til he had the confrontation with i.Little's mother. If anything, I'd move up Trevante Rhodes who played the adult Black/LittleMan. He was way more effective in the last 1/3 of the film, especially throughout the diner scene. (Spoiler Alert-with Ali, I got the sense that he was shot during a drug deal - 'funeral' mentioned in the 2nd act - I guess that I needed to see what actually happened to this character that would've made me push this performance to the front...)
Johnny W: you really shouldn't toy with people's emotions like this.
This director instills very little confidence, regardless of how amazing Annette is (which I know she is).
We all need to face facts:
Annette isn't getting nominated this year. And, if she is, then Huppert is going to miss. This is a tragedy either way, because Meryl is getting her 20th and Amy is getting her 6th, and both Bening and Huppert aren't getting in.
And Bening isn't winning this year or next year.
Ugh. This season. Can't it just be over? Like now.
Nathaniel- all of your points are true.
But Streep was still nominated and won Best Comedy Actress for Critics Choice- we have no idea how that plays out. A win here kind of eases the sting of not being nominated in Best Actress(?) especially in a crowded batch of great performances.
Golden Globe nom- probably not that much... you are right. But this year with the Demille award, gives Streep the spotlight and a reminder that she is still on the ballot and, perhaps, our greatest living film actress. It will be get good PR.
2 days later- BAFTA nominations- for a film filmed in England with a Stephen Frears and Hugh Grant- I feel like she will score here ( not that she has the last two nominations-AOC and ITW)
The SAG nomination to me shows her strength (and Adams) in this field. History shows if she gets the GG and SAG nomination, it leads to Oscar nomination (except once for The River Wild)
If I look at awards season history, combined with that of it being "Streep" it feels like she should be in.
And you are also right- BAFTA does not love Streep as much as OSCAR. BAFTA has only nominated her an astounding 14 times.
Jamie -- LOL. yes 14 is a a whole helluva lot of times... but it's still not Oscar-sized love (19) or GLOBE love (WOWZA -but the globe thing is fun. I love streep and i love the globes and they go really well together because both entities enjoy FUN in movie prizing. The Globes doubled categories with comedy separated from drama really make for a rich rich history in compared to other organization in terms of what gets held up for "ooh look at what people enjoyed that year!""
I'll always love the Globes for this reason most of all. And it's one reason I hate the categories in the Critics Choice. If you're going to do that separation you have to actually commit to it and SEPARATE the films or else you're stating Only Drama Matters... these other prizes are in case you didn't excel in Drama and were not *quite good enough* to compete with the Holy Work of Drama by escaping the shackles of your lesser genre.
Robert R: what I saw was an early cut and I believe that the finished product will not be ready until spring.
Cinesnatch: I did not mean to toy with your emotions; I only said what I believe from what I saw and the reaction of everyone else present. The director may not have a great track record in films but I think he has done a great job here. We shall see next year.
The thing about Paul McGuigan is that he has never directed a film like Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool before. In fact, his entire filmography (film and TV) suggests that this is a passion project.
Even if Portman deserves it (don't know yet haven't seen everyone) I think winning would be bad for her career, unfortunately.
She's been in contention to win three times (Closer, Black Swan and Jackie) but people still say, oh she is not a good actress she just got lucky 3x in roles that fit her. A second oscar, no matter how deserving for Jackie, would be doing her career no favors.
I don't get why Streep gets criticized for mimicking performances like Julie & Julia, Iron Lady but not Natalie Portman (mimicking Jackie). Not once have I seen or read about a mimicking performance by Portman, which it really is. Everyone was so critical of Streep's win for Iron Lady, which she deserved, BTW. I think it's a huge DOUBLE STANDARD!
With the arguable exception of Glenn Close, there is no living American actress more overdue for an Oscar statuette than Annette Bening. But every year, it seems as though there are a certain number of worthy, smaller films that fly too far under the radar to gain any traction with Oscar voters. Films like these need either:
(A) A good head start to build word-of-mouth and avoid getting lost in the year-end crunch (i.e. Captain Fantastic)
(B) A smattering of critics’ awards to bolster their standing (Moonlight, Manchester), or…
(C) A show of strength in the marketplace (it’s not a little indie, but Arrival doesn’t fit the traditional Oscar profile and has certainly benefitted from commercial success.)
I have no doubt that Bening is wonderful in 20th Century Women – when is she ever not? The problem is, unless you happen to be a member of the gilded screener-receiving class, you just have to take that on faith, because you haven’t seen the film, you can’t bend the ears of your Actors’ Branch friends about how much you loved it (because if you hang out with actors, you know exactly how suggestible they area), and frankly, unless you live in a major Metropolitan area, you’re probably not going to see the damn thing until it goes to DVD or Netflix, because it an't coming to your town.
With the modern Awards season basically taking place in a vacuum – it’s an industry insider event – there’s no real chance for the movie-going public, and arguably even a majority of the critics, to have any kind of impact. Whether you think that’s a good thing or a bad thing as far as The Oscars are concerned, it can’t be denied that there have plenty of tiny movies in years past that NEVER would have made it onto the Academy radar if Joe and Jane Moviegoer hadn't turned them into surprise hits (Full Monty and Little Miss Sunshine always seems like the ultimate examples of that phenomenon). And even if the film doesn’t have that kind of box office success, having a film out there for an extended period of time, winning over fans and acquiring a real following beyond the parameters of the industry is invaluable to its Awards prospects.
Otherwise, a small film is going to just live and die within the Oscar bubble – unseen, unsung and lost in the Netflix thicket before it’s even had a chance. I honestly think distributors need to stop stock-piling small, worthy fare for the end of the year like this, because they’re not giving their films a real chance to find an audience – and anyway, do they really think they’re in competition with Chris & JLaw’s space-capades, Disney animation and Anniston’s office party for a slice of the Christmas pie?
Josh - hmmm, don't really agree with that. Off-the-top of my head Close and Sigourney are definitely ahead of Bening in that regard. Also, isn't Wiest still due one? I'm sure there are a ton more that are at least "arguable"
I'd put Bening in a similar category as Toni Colette or Patricia Clarkson - tremendous actresses that it would be very satisfying to see win one day but who are not necessarily unequivocally overdue for a win
@ What what
He did say Close and Wiest already has two...
The big difference between Bening and Collette is age, and between Bening and Clarkson is status.
IMO Meryl shld b at the no.4 spot. The Academy lADORE her & FFJ is a HUGE hit w many fans.
Stone, Portman, Adams & Streep r pretty secured. It's now Huppert & Bening vying for the last spot. I believe Negga's chances of a nod if any will only be at BAFTA.
Between the two great ladies, Huppert is the critics' darling, and she has two well acclaimed career best performances bolstering her chance. Bening sadly is kinda botched up by the super late release date & the unusually quiet hype to her movie.
Between the two & I know it must be a Sophie's Choice for many of us here, I'm going to predict
Huppert for the last spot.
Bening will be nom again but I suspect this maybe Huppert's last shot at an Oscar nom
The thing about Huppert is that after this season of visibility and adoration she'll potentially have at least five films in play next year...