Updated Oscar Charts - All Categories!
Thursday, November 7, 2013 at 6:00PM The Oscar Charts are all updated - some new text, ranking shifts, etcetera - so let's discuss!
PICTURE
Who says we have no frontrunner? A million+ articles have clogged the net proclaiming the mysteriousness of this Oscar race but you can tell that something's leading when the knives come out. And the knives do seem to be out for 12 Years a Slave, Steve McQueen's brilliant slavery drama about Solomon Northup (Chiwetel Ejiofor) a freeborn black man who was kidnapped and sold into slavery where he stayed for a tortuous 12 years. A couple of weeks ago David Poland performed a scathing vivisection of a recent Los Angeles times piece on 12 Years a Slave without anesthesia. The purpose of the article seemed to be taking the film down. Mark Harris recently conveyed some of his problems (respectfully) with the film, but noted that it remains the epicenter of conversation.
Meanwhile over at Gurus of Gold, the period drama maintains a solid though not comfortable lead over Gravity. Merely glancing at the Gurus chart shows how crowded and confusing the Best Picture race is at the moment. There is only true(ish) agreement on five pictures (12 Years, Captain Phillips, Gravity, American Hustle, Saving Mr Banks) so perhaps that would be our nominees under the now departed but long running system which gave us only 5 pictures. But beyond that, the rest of the blissfully expansive field looks fairly evenly matched in a heated race for the other 0-5 possible slots. Curiously I am the ONLY pundit not predicting Inside Llewyn Davis which is somehow in sixth place with the Gurus. Either I'm very prescient or... (don't finish that sentence, I'm warning you!)
Forest Whitaker and David Oyelowo in "Lee Daniels' The Butler"
One final note on this category, in the latest update I dropped Lee Daniel's The Butler -- at first accidentally when I moved Nebraska up (a film that I think stands out neatly from the pack both in temperament, goal, and actual look) -- but then the difficulty of gauging The Weinstein '13 Model was staring me back in the face. The previous and always formidable Oscar champs know how to play the game and they have four major hopefuls in Fruitvale Station, Philomena, August: Osage County, and Lee Daniels' The Butler. But here's the catch: don't all four seem evenly matched at this point in terms of probability? I keep shuffling them around and every ranking looks right. Which movie are they really going to get behind and which will the precursors rally 'round making that choice easier for them (and Oscar voters)?
DIRECTOR
Curiously, however the Oscar Best Picture cards fall I do think that Alfonso Cuarón is going to walk away with the Best Director trophy. It's less rare than it used to be to see a split. The Academy loves to see you sweat and not just in the acting categories. They like the directors who are obviously working with large scale complicated tasks and the 'long-time-in-the-making-this-was-so-hard-to-achieve' stories will be crack for some voters. That plus Cuaron is a "warmer" filmmaker than his nearest rival Steve McQueen, who doesn't care if he rocks the boat in conversation. In short, the smart, ballsy, art-world born McQueen is not exactly the shaking hands / kissing babies type. Which is not to say that he's not friendly (he is) but still...
I seem to be one of the only pundits who is bullish about J.C. Chandor getting 1/2 the credit for All is Lost's success . I'll admit it's a risky call that might not pay off at all since that movie appears to be "All Redford! All The Time!" and as such it's helping...
ACTOR
"Bob" Redford become the frontrunner for this statue, albeit not an unbeatable one. It's simplistic to suggest that 'Career Honors' votes will be split with Bruce Dern, dooming them both, because that implies that they're fighting for the same votes and honestly, why would they be? The films... and the stars... are very different creatures with probably very different fanbases.
On a potentially more divisive note, I'm starting to worry for Chiwetel Ejiofor. That might sound crazy, since he stars in the frontrunning film, but hear me out: Best Actor is very full with big stars / storied actors (McConaughey, Redford, Hanks, Dern) doing what many are calling career best work, while three big stars remain outside that presumptive lineup ready to shake things up if enough people love the films (Bale, DiCaprio, Phoenix) and one former winner could surprise if the film is more popular than we're thinking (Whitaker) which leaves two men only as "newbies" to the competition: Chiwetel and Michael B Jordan the latter of whom clearly has one particular advantage in that "breakthrough" style awards will keep him in the conversation for the whole season, even if that coveted shortlist spot might still be out of reach. This is all a long way of saying that the race is way too crowded (the year's most competitive field, I'd wager) to "lock" anyone up. And what's more this is hardly the first Steve McQueen movie with an Oscar worthy leading man (that'd be all of them, all being Fassbender x 2) but in the end his movies are always viewed as auteur pieces first and foremost. What's more, Oscar's acting branch doesn't have a great history of understanding the special skills of actors who can turn themselves into a vessel for a film's thematic concerns. Ejiofor's role is meaty, sure, but it's also kind of purposefully emptied out -- for much of the film he's silent about himself for survival -- and Oscar likes detailed intricacies of character in their leading actors and actresses. They like a particular kind of achievement and this is another kind. I'm probably worrying for nothing but 12 Years a Slave, however great it is, seems like the kind of masterpiece that could spark weird continued weird backlashes and tiny pockets of "no thank you"s which could cost it key nominations here and there despite how accomplished it is across the board.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS & SUPPORTING ACTOR
... these categories! I think they're still wildly up in the air and pundits are only in semi-agreement because there are so many ways it could go. I hope the awards strategists and publicists behind really great stuff are noticing the window of opportunity (SHORT) here before things start locking up and they might in notoriously lazy unsatisfying ways. My supporting actor list is still making me nervous. For as much as Brühl won great reviews and is a lead masquerading as supporting (which often helps for non-huge stars) is anyone talking about the film? And as much as Leto won great reviews and has a really showy part, will he appeal to the AMPAS acting branch since he's such a "part timer" as actors go... and too familiar for "DISCOVERY!" excitement? With the ladies I'm testing out what it looks like to predict Sarah Paulson (12 Years a Slave) and June Squibb (Nebraska) -- mostly because I could see either happening. What'cha think?
Other Charts... Updated But We'll Dive In Further Soon
VISUALS | AURALS | ANIMATED FEATURE & DOCUMENTARIES | FOREIGN FILM | SCREENPLAYS
Reader Comments (55)
I would love to see Sarah Paulson but I think it will not happen. Regarding Jennifer Lawrence... Well, I think that maybe both the film and her performance will not be as good as they are expected to be. I mean, I like her but three nominations at these point appear to be excessive. And she could run the risk of being hated by many people if she starts to appear to be overrrated.
On the other hand, I think you are understimating 'August' ladies in this category. Roberts' role is not more fraudulent than many other examples in the past and the reviews are strong for her. And I can see the actors branch falling in love with that kind of film and putting both Roberts and Martindale among the final five.
By the way, excuse my bad English...
Ejiofor is to "12 Years a Slave" as Bullock is to "Gravity." Acting vessels for movies that are greater than themselves. I loved "12 Years a Slave" more than "Gravity" (only slightly), and Ejiofor more than Bullock (not so slightly). But Ejiofor lacks Bullock's clout, so I think he'll have a tough time getting into the top 5.
P.S. Isn't it great to see a film that is greater than the sum of its parts? I mean, every element in "12 Years a Slave" is a powerhouse, from the acting to the score, but in the end they are all just elements of a truly masterful piece of art.
12 Years a Slave is likely to receive 12 nominations.
I think The Butler will get in. I don't like it, but it made buckets of money in the US market and it pretends to be "important" and we all know voters love movies that "matter".
I absolutely love that you included Barkhad Abdi. He's excellent.
If Gloria gets nominated, I promise I'll get drunk and sleep with the first man who asks me to.
I'm currently in London and the ad campaign for The Butler running here leads me to believe that they're going to press for that movie really hard. This is a bit of a shame because although I was completely on board with the movie for it's first half, it lost me in the end and has not aged well at all in memory.
I honestly think we're only going to get 5 or 6 nominations this year. There are so many films that are being championed already with rave reviews that there's no way 9 reach the 5% of the vote threshold again. Your tier three and even bubbling under films have loud, passionate fans stumping for them.
I think the nominations are going to be all over the place which can be really exciting. Like, imagine Short Term 12 getting one nomination (best actress or screenplay), The Butler only getting in for supporting actress, Gravity only getting picture, director, and tech categories, Her getting in for director or screenplay only, etc. There's a million ways this can go right now and that's exciting. I mean, we can't even really predict Animated Feature since everyone gets to vote on the category for the first time. Documentary, Original Song, and Foreign Language Film are still adjusting to the altered rules that made it easier to qualify.
Tom Hanks will win Best Actor for Captain Phillips.
I'm so excited that you're predicting Sarah Paulson! She was the standout of the cast for me. I was especially looking forward to Nyong'o's performance, but I was really saddened by it. She's fantastic in it, sure, but she really has very little to do. The look in Fassbender's eyes as he stares Ejiofor down after he's learned of the letter is truly bone-chilling, though, isn't it?
Crossing my fingers that you're right about Redford. He's been my favorite actor for decades, and I never thought I'd see him win a competitive Oscar.
I have a hard time imagining that Ejiofor gets snubbed. Critics should come out for him, at least as much as they will for the other major contenders. And speaking of the competition, though Redford and McConaughey are bigger names, are their films doing all that well?
I also would count June Squibb in. She steals every scene in Nebraska in which she appears and that film seems right up the Academy's alley.
The Weinstein question is indeed one I've been asking myself. Right now, I don't see any of their films in the top 7-8 so critics will have to rally around one. I won't be surprised to see him shut out, frankly. But if I had to choose one of his films as lost likelyI actually might opt for August: Osage County to creep in based on actors' support. We know it'll get a big push for Meryl, Julia, and Margot.
I expect both Julia & Margo will sneak in BSA...
...Oh, and I hope you're right about Sarah Paulsen. I actually thought she gave the best performance in 12 Years. That could have been a very thankless, forgettable role, but she gave it a lot of a lot of texture. She made the character interesting.
Hi Nat! Don't you think Iran's The Past deserves a spot among your 10 most likely candidates for BFLF?
12 Years a Slave
Prediction Nods: Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Art Direction Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Cinematography, Editing, Score (I know....), Costumes, Makeup, and Sound Editing
I actually do think somebody in the cast will get a surprise nomination: I think Woodard (yes, for one scene- THE BEST SCENE) or Paulson have a shot. There needs to be a filler.
Ejiofor is nowhere near as in trouble as Fassbender is. On one hand, him not campaign and letting the performance speak for itself is an interesting testimony he is choosing but on the other hand the role is in no way this charismatic yet vicious figure. He is a real, brutal person who never gets a true sense of comeuppance even if in the end we know he 'loses'.
Daniel Bruhl in Rush is falling by the waist-side for me. Film was a flop, positive to mixed but even as somebody who liked it, not incredibly memorable despite being a well-oiled machine when Morgan and Howard decided to let the story speak and not their flourishes. I definitely think Abdi is Fassbender's fiercest competition of the current field.
My sight unseen prediction is Universal officially drops Rush and puts up Lone Survivor as its top contender. I definitely think the story behind the making of it and the true story of it (nowhere near as problematic as a Zero Dark Thirty and, in fact, a universal kind of battlefield tragedy in war) helps it a lot and I could see it as filler to a certain older male crowd at the Academy. It is my sleeper prediction in categories that are incredibly sparse like Adapted Screenplay, Editing, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, and even Supporting Actor.
My prediction is that we're all sleeping on The Butler. I still think The Weinsteins now what they can do with that movie, and they're going to bring it back around in a big way.
I personally think Fruitvale is the Weinstein sleeper. The Butler may have had Box Office but Fruitvale had festival distinction though I will say what I have come across critically is A.) Far less support for Fruitvale than one would suspect and B.) Far more for The Butler. But honestly, I see August falling lower than both of these movies. I think Harvey could easily get into the spirit of this Oscar season and throw both racially conscious movies into the race if just to take wind out of 12YAS sails. I mean, this is a guy who tried to prioritize mental health in the legislative process happen with Silver Linings Playbook after Argo, ZDT, and Lincoln both made major hay with DC.
12 Years a Slave: Picture, director, actor, supporting actor, supporting actress (2x), adapted screenplay, film editing, cinematography, score, sound, make-up, art direction, costume design = 14 nominations. Way too many, but all seem reasonable to me.
Gravity: Picture, director, actress, screenplay, film editing, score, cinematography, sound, sound editing, visual effects. 10 nominations. Seems right
American Hustle: Picture, director, actor, supporting actor, supporting actress (Adams), screenplay, costume, art direction, film editing. 9 nominations
Wolf of Wall Street: Picture, director, actor, supporting actor, screenplay, film editing, score, sound. 8 nominations
Uhh, you didn't mention Best Actress or even link to it.
It's like we don't even know you anymore.
Hustle will get a hair and makeup.
I also think the supporting girls from August will make a showing. Not so sure about Adams. I'll wait till I see it on that one. I think Redford will get the nom, but not the win. The film isn't doing that well, mixed reviews and the competition is so strong. And don't count Clooney out. He will certainly campaign for the film which will put him front and center in everyone's mind.
My big question mark is The Book Thief-it's got a prestigious source material, it's in the middle of Oscar season, Geoffrey Rush and Emily Watson are both in it, and John Williams is scoring it (I suspect he gets nominated, at the very least). It could be the come-out-of-nowhere contender in a couple of categories.
Thanks Jestifer! I've been going nuts wondering why there is not one single mention of this terrific movie. I just saw "The Book Thief" two nights ago & it's outstanding. Best picture, adapted screenplay, possibly best actor (rush), supporting actress (watsopn), music score, cinematorgray, possibly costume. possibly supporting actor. i can't get it out of my head. LOVED it much more than "12 Years a Slave"
"And don't count Clooney out. He will certainly campaign for the film which will put him front and center in everyone's mind."
**sighs** The Academy loves him but his horse is out for the season and he can still get producer nod for A: OC. I think the calls for him in supporting in Gravity are ridiculous. The film never put him front and center in everybody's mind and yes, **EVEN** that moment was mostly about how Sandra's character was dealing and feeling.
A year without George would not be the worst year ever. He'll be there at the ceremony anyway.
BTW - there is no way that Chiwetel Ejiofor will not win Best Actor this year. Just one dude's opinion. 1. academy is much younger - no emotional attachment to redford. 2. Chiwetel Ejiofor was incredible
two possibilities you've overlooked -
john williams for score (come on, it's john williams)
nicole holofcener for original screenplay
I still think Chiwetel Ejiofor is leading the race. Although he hasn't had a lot of good leading roles, he's been in the supporting cast of all kinds of movies. Love Actually, American Gangster, Salt, Serenity, 2012, Children of Men, Amistad. He must have a wide professional circle. In Love Actually, he's the Oscar possibility in a Christmas "classic" that people like and isn't embarrassing for him. What an ad! Opposed to say, Ghosts of Girlfriends Past.
My guess is TWC is going to get behind Philomena, because there's future money to be made there. Fruitvale and Butler have already made their money. August: Osage looks like it will make as much money as Doubt. But there's a potential to make a good sized hit out of Philomena. It is reportedly well acted, well directed, with a solid script. Judi Dench is a terrific actress playing a likeable optimistic character with a tragic past. Not hard to make Oscar bait out of that!
For surprise long shots, I'd say maybe The Book Thief with Geoffrey Rush, a younger actress showing up, like Emma Watson in The Bling Ring, or Brie Larson in Short-term 12. My utterly favorite long long shot would be Kasi Lemmons for Best Director for Black Nativity, a new take on a historic piece that was part of the Harlem Renaissance. That's artists speaking to artists over the years, and I always love that.
I want Lea Seydoux and Sarah Paulson nominations in the worst way. At least Lupita is guaranteed a spot, but otherwise things are not looking great for my personal ballot. Such is the way with Supporting Actress...
Sounds good, agree with you on inside llewyn davis. But where is the wolf of wall street, and am the only one who remembers hugh jackmans extraordinary performance in prisoners? sort of a
You're missing Jonah Hill. And I completely disagree with the Ejiofor assessment, he's the frontrunner in my opinion.
Nathaniel, stop trying to make Fruitvale Station happen. It's not going to happen.
Chiwetel is not only going up for Actor, he's winning. Redford's film is not going to register the way people expect. He could even be the film's sole nomination, or maybe it will only get Cinematography. The buzz has been heavy but I'm just not buying it.
Those Supporting categories are so fluid. Anything could happen there right now, and American Hustle will make a huge difference. I am shocked you listed Julia Roberts so low - blatant category theft or not, I keep hearing she's the best part of the movie.
Director is a puzzle. I feel like it's McQueen because I genuinely think Gravity is losing BP. (Either way, in my book, best BP winner since The Departed, maybe even since the 90s.) Last year doesn't tell us anything because Affleck wasn't there up against Lee's technical achievements. Hm.
Oh, and MDA wins the best comment award.
I expected someone to make this comment when I clicked into the article, but since no one did, I guess I'll be the one to make this suggestion:
For better or worse, if 12 Years a Slave wins Best Picture but Steve McQueen doesn't win Best Director (as you indicated in your opinion that Cuaron would win), the race card is coming out in full swing for the Academy. It's too big an opportunity to pass on, and if the film wins Best Picture, there's no excuse.
actually, Cuaron being Mexican would make him the first Hispanic director to win BD. Every foreign Best Director was either European or Anglophone (NZ, Australia, Canada)
12 Years is not the kind of movie that loses best director. It is usually lighter things (Chicago, Shakespeare in Love, Chariots of Fire) of movies directed by guys that are that well respected (Crash, Argo).
I'd die of joy if Paulson got in.She's a terrific actress, just see what she did in Game Change with such a poorly written role. As Meryl will say "Give this woman a movie!!"
But she seriously need to campaign harder (or something at least) N'yongo is all over the place, on every morning show, having dinner with Anna Wintour...where is Sarah?!?!
I thought Gravity was only ok, but I still would love to see Cuaron nominated and maybe even win, only because he deserved to win for Children of Men. Still can't believe he wasn't nominated for that.
Cate Blanchett Cate Blanchett Cate Blanchett!!! MUHAHAHAHZ
12 Years - 11
Gravity - 10
I'm surprised no love for Joss Whedon's "Much Ado About Nothing". Oscar isn't exactly repelled by Shakespeare.
MDA -- lolz. wow. bicoastalness does not always agree with me. the things that slip through. ON A BEST ACTRESS NOTE: I met Emma Thompson last night. twas thrilling.
Based on the photo you have for Jake Gyllenhaal in Supporting Actor, I'd say he's a shoo-in! De-glam always works.
Mike -- ugh. let's all blame Los Angeles for making me stupid!
eurocheese & Jimmy and others -- I am genuinely surprised people think Ejiofor is going to win though i absolutely share your love of his performance. But I think if it's not Redford it could easily be McConaughey. As for no emotional attachment to Robert Redford *doesdoubletake* -- The Academy is a *little* younger, yes. but not THAT young. This is an area that always trips up internet prognostication. The internet is ruled by 20somethings but they don't get to vote unless they're like...uhmmm... gabby sidibe? keira knightley? jennifer hudson? (there's a few 20 somethings in the academy at least) Trust me that people in their 40s 50s and 60s and up (i.e. academy voters) have an attachment to Redford who is a major icon of cinema. Maybe it's hard for younger people today to understand how big he was?. He was like George Clooney and Brad Pitt -- for modern concept -- only a little bit only more popular at the box office (1972-1974 are hilariously Redford centric in terms of the top grossing films)
George Clooney hasn't been participating in any promotions for "Gravity" except for the appearances at the Venice and US premiere, which, I guess, must have been his contractual obiligations. I'd be surprised if he attended SAG's Q&A (I don't know if it had already been held or not).
Nat: I'm surprised that you're putting Redford at the front of the race. I don't think McConaughey or Dern are safe, and maybe Whitaker or DiCaprio will sneak in.
I get why people love Gravity (i really do) but i will puke if Clooney is nominated for that. a nothing performance.
The nightmare scenario for me would be: Wolf of Wall Street and DiCaprio get rave reviews and WOWS gets picture, director and supporting actor nominations, but not actor. If that happens once or twice to an actor of DiCaprio's calibre - bad luck, ok. But four times - sigh.
DIdn't people say it was two-way race between Pitt and Clooney before Dujardin swooped in and won SAG? If 12 Years A Slave becomes such a frontrunner in BP, I don't see they'll pass up to give the Best Actor as well.
Clooney is not only in a nothing part, he does nothing with it. Oh, so he's charming. Oscar worthy for that? Did you forget he could act (Syriana? Michael Clayton? Good Night and Good Luck?)?
I HOPE SARAH PAULSON GETS NOMINATED. Let's make this happen, everyone. Let's do some voodoo or some shit.
Ejiofor is not Dujardin. Dujardin carried his film to Best Picture. So did Firth. The Artist and The King's Speech were films that were driven by the performances of their leading men.
The supporting cast - Fassbender, Nyong'o, Paulson, even Cumberbatch and Woodard - carry 12 Years; it's a true ensemble film. It was hard for me to focus on Ejiofor when any of them are on screen. I agree with Nathaniel; he won't win unless, as Mark Harris has said, the contest becomes about whose character provokes the most sympathy.
Nathaniel: No need to feel stupid. Just having fun imagining Gyllenhaal in Leo's part. Your Clooney/SAG Q&A comment has me wondering if the SAG awards will be able to resist nominating Gravity for "cast".
Nathan, I'll bring my own bucket and join you. CLOOOONEY!!!!
I HOPE SARAH PAULSON GETS NOMINATED. Let's make this happen, everyone. Let's do some voodoo or some shit.
***
Philip, I'm sticking pins in my Amy Adams doll right now.