Oscar Prediction Updates - Carol's Up. But What's Down?
Friday, December 11, 2015 at 8:00PM 
Will Oscar voters love how obsessed with Oscar statues the SAG nominated TRUMBO is? It's been an enormously busy week with precursor decisions confusing and clarifying in equal measure. Even if you don't put much stock in the Critic's Choice Awards (also known as the BFCA, an organization that includes your host) it'll be interesting to see what they come up with since ballots were due today and so many questions remain. Though the organization prides itself on Oscar predictive power (a very weird thing to pride yourself on unless you're a pundit rather than a critic) the confusing nature of the race won't make things easy on any pundit.
While I've been accused of overthinking various races often (who, me?) such is the curse of punditry and Oscar obsessiveness. Here's where I think we stand now...
PICTURE & DIRECTOR If this race we're taking place in 2008 with the old school five-wide race it would obviously be Spotlight, The Martian, Carol, The Revenant, and Room at this point with one of the directors jettisoned for Mad Max's overachievement by George Miller. Beyond that it's so complicated both because we don't know how many nominees we'll get and because seven other pictures still seem plausible as a Best Picture nominee for one reason or another though they had shakier reactions in these first two precursor weeks. For instance: Creed hasn't been doing all that well but I still think it's a big Oscar possibility. Am I crazy or just concussed? And speaking of...
The SAG miss for Sir Ian McKellen could spell trouble for his Oscar dream
ACTOR While I don't imagine we'll see a repeat of Will Smith's Globe nominated Concussion performance on the Oscar shortlist it's one of about ten performances that still seem to be in the race. You'll have to cleave that in half in January. DiCaprio, Redmayne, Fassbender, and Cranston all have the key nominations (Globe & SAG) but each year at least one or two people across the four categories with that combo miss and you need #1 votes given the Academy's nomination tallying system. So which performances or beloved actors have the most passion behind them? This is why I still think Michael B Jordan or even Sir Ian could surprise despite the lack of SAG or Globe love; it's always important to remember that those voting bodies are quite dissimilar to Oscar's acting branch.
SUPPORTING ACTOR Precursors have coalesced around Michael Shannon, Idris Elba, and Mark Rylance but because the former two weren't what people widely expected, CHAOS REIGNS. Sly Stallone still feels like a potential winner IF he's nominated. And will Oscar really deprive anyone from Spotlight of an acting nomination? That would be so weird for such an actor's friendly Best Picture frontrunner.
but who will be on CHARLOTTE's ballot? ACTRESS & SUPPORTING ACTRESS We'll have to list these two together because of the ongoing controversy surrounding Rooney Mara (one half of Carol's brilliant romantic coupling) and Alicia Vikander (who has two films splitting supporting honors Ex Machina and The Danish Girl, even though she's the leading lady of both). The discussions around these two have sucked so much oxygen out of the room for other women (in both the leading and supporting races) that I imagine they're both still getting nominated for Supporting DAMNIT since voters likely haven't thought through their other options . The solution: quality longshots should be working their asses off for the next two weeks to remind people of their existence (We're talking to you: Kristen Stewart, Elizabeth Banks, Julie Walters, and Cynthia Nixon) since Academy voters don't get their ballots until the end of the year. Over in lead actress only four women feel secure (yes, that includes Charlotte Rampling. Come at me!) which means it's a true free for all for the fifth-slot. This week I chose Lily Tomlin as the lucky lady but it could be anyone from the second tier of the chart (or Mara or Vikander).
The other category charts will be updated this weekend -- SAG & Globe choices tell us virtually nothing about Oscar tastes when it comes to the other categories so we can think awhile longer on it.
Investigate the new charts and report back. What does your crystal ball say?
Reader Comments (45)
i understand the category fraud situation of Mara and Vikander, as much as I understand possible nominations for Joan Allen and Jane Fonda. I love them very much but let s be honest, the Fonda performance is simply awful and Joan Allen doesn't do much to make me go, wow that was great acting. I stand behind JJL s possible nomination. No matter how much people may hate that film, she s what holds everything together.
This week has made the races seem very fluid, but I think the final nominations will be more in line with people's pre-SAG and Golden Globe predictions. One or two male 'Spotlight' actors nominated, Mara and Vikander in supporting, and 'Joy' earning several major nominations. If there's one group that loves DOR more than the others, it's AMPAS, and Jennifer Lawrence is the most beloved actor in the world right now. I'd be shocked to see her miss in the end.
Cris: They will have to see it to know that and, between the police call for a boycott and some people's natural aversion to QT movies, JJL may have her usual hard time with AMPAS. It's the Anomalisa factor that may give her a boost.
My current predictions
Picture
Spotlight
Carol
Room
The Revenant
The Martian
Fury Road
Beasts of no nation
Bridge of spies
Director
Scott
Miller
McCarthy
Innaritu
Haynes
Actor
Leo
Redmayne
Fassy
Cranston
Depp
I'm starting to think its Leo's year
Actress
Larson
Blanchett
Ronan
Vikander
Rampling
I think they call out Vikander on category fraud but let Mara slide since there's another female lead in her movie
Supporting Actor
Keaton
Rylance
Shannon
Elba
Ruffalo
I don't think they'll go for creed even Stallone who I know seems like a lock
Supporting actress
Winslet
Mara
JJL
McAdams
Fonda
This category the hardest to predict since we don't know what they'll do with Mara and Vikander
2015 has not been a stellar year for movies. But the precursor circuit's instinct to play advocate for lesser expected or championed contenders has left me with a sour feeling about the whole thing. What I want on nomination morning is a shutout of Trumbo. I don't have much optimism for anything else so I won't ask.
I like all of your choices except Fonda.... WTF in that performance????
/3rtful
Then why don't you just keep a low profile for the awards season?????
re. Picture - I'm sure Fury Road will collect enough #1 votes to get a nomination, and Creed feels pretty likely too. I thought Brooklyn was a sure thing a week ago - I still feel it's likely. Not that sure about Inside Out
re. Actor - to give them some credit, Ampass isn't always *that* predictable and I can see either Redmayne, Fassbender or Cranston missing for sure. I'd feel more comfortable predicting McKellen and Jordan than either of those three.
re. Actress - yeah I feel like Rampling will make it in, and either Vikander or Mara
re. Supporting Actor - I just want Elba to make it. He needs a higher profile already and okay, I admit, I have a bit of a crush... but also: he's amazing in that film!
re. Supporting Actress - much as I'd love Allen to get another nomination (whether or not she deserves it), I feel like buzz for Room is gradually dying down. I think Winslet and Fonda are pretty safe at this stage. Surely at least one out of the Mara-Vikander category-fraud double will miss out - at least one, right? I worry Mirren will almost certainly be the beneficiary. Out of the rest I think Banks has the strongest shot (for career heat as much as anything else - plus they'll be watching the film for Dano), then McAdams.
Although the buzz for "Joy" has died way down, I still think we may be underestimating Lawrence's chances. She might end up in there, even if her film doesn't fair well across the board.
I also feel confident about Rampling but I'm still worried for her. Do you think she could win IF nominated? As much as I love Ronan in her film, and as much as others seem to love Larson, neither feels like a winner. Larson is not always at the center of her film, and Ronan still seems too young. Anyhow, the fact that there are no frontrunners in the acting categories is so exciting.
@rick:
I'm Team Larson. I have to admit I have a low tolerance for white ingenues. Nonwhite ingenues are an oxymoron because patriarchal white supremacist Hollywood is simply uninterested in them having agency.
Brie will get her Oscar before Jessica and I can live with that.
I remember last year the SAG list seeming full of craziness but, in the end, 17 of 20 translated to Oscar. The only ones dropped from SAG were Gyllenhaal (for Cooper), Aniston (for Cotillard) and Watts (for Dern).
I wouldn't be surprised if it was similar this year, with Mirren (Woman in Gold) and Silverman and probably 1 other replaced. Will be interesting to see how it washes out in the end. At least there is genuine uncertainty (for the moment) about where Vikander and Mara will show up on Oscar morning.
I've been team McKellen since I saw the movie. Just like I was team Gyllanhaal last year right up to the morning of the announcements. And it's looking like history is repeating itself. Oh well, I guess that will make me all that much more excited if Ian's name is called on nominations morning. But methinks I'm in denial. Please be jingoistic BAFTA!!
steve with the exception of Watts last years SAG nominations were pretty much in line with what people expected or hoped for , this years batch had like half a dozen wtf moments. No one was expecting the Trumbo love , Silverman, double Mirren.
I think Trumbo is the film that sneaks in, even though the Internet and awards watchers are down on it. The Academy will like it enough. I don't think a best picture nomination, but Cranston and Mirren seem likely.
Surely one of Mara or Vikander gets in lead. Vikander seems most vulnerable with her two films getting nominations in supporting. I would love to see a dual Best Actress nominee. And who knows about Joy. Those reviews are mixed and I don't think JLaw is as untouchable as many think. They have snubbed Angelina Jolie before (A Mighty Heart) and Leo (J.Edgar). AMPAS is much more prone to vote with passion for films and performances that excite them rather than Hollywood names (think Mirren and Cotillard missing out a few years ago in favor of Quvenzhane Wallis and Emmanuelle Riva).
I also think one of the big question marks is how well Son of Saul will do. It has rave reviews, Oscar's favorite subject (WWII) and it's opening right when ballots are sent out. Could it pull an Amour and get picture, director, screenplay and perhaps actor for Gèza Röhrig? That actor category has one or 2 spots that are shaky... Probably unlikely but it's worth pondering.
It's so clear now how easily Mara and Vikander could have been nominated in lead if they'd just campaigned there in the first place. Joy is faltering, the SAGs struggled to fill lead actress and they made it through on the Globe ballot.
Instead they'll be lucky to get nominations at all. Supporting Actress is super crowded, with eight different performances getting either SAG or Globe nominations, KStew showing up in critics awards and Joan Allen and Elizabeth Banks in movies that will be watched.
Personally I hope Mara gets one of the lead spots and Vikander gets the supporting nod for Ex Machina. (And fraud disappears forever.)
I don't think the top 5 films are necessarily that obvious. Room feels like it's fading (Larson hasn't performed as well as expected), and I question The Revenant as a top 5 pick. After this week, it seems as though The Big Short - with its SAG noms and unexpected critics awards - could certainly be a top 5 nominee; apparently it is playing very well in screenings. I also definitely think that Spielberg and/or Tarantino could be nominated for Director, as both have large fanbases.
I swear to God if this category fraud confusion means Helen Mirren in Trumbo gets nominated, I'd rather just let Rooney Mara and Alicia Vikander go supporting. Seriously. I'd rather have them be nominated in supporting than see Helen Mirren nominated.
I'm really at my wit's end with Helen Mirren. lol
And the WORST part of all right now is that it seems that EVEN IF they both got nominated in supporting, Helen Mirren still has a good chance of showing up. Whatever lol. It just really upsets me lolol
Samuel L. Jackson isn't in either acting list, even as a long shot. I can't be the only one who likes and respects him?
Of course, I haven't seen The Hateful Eight, but I think the roadshow is going to sell out (I'm certainly going), and there's going to be fun and noise over the 70mm, and how beautiful it is, and how there's nothing like "real film".
Room feels like it's fading (Larson hasn't performed as well as expected)...
In what sense? So far she's just 1 of 2 (the other being Ronan) to win at least one critic prize and got nominated for GG and SAG. Plus she won NBR *and* her film is doing slightly better than Ronan's film in terms of precursors (though Carol is doing slightly better but Blanchett's previous ins and possible vote splitting/category fraud with Mara only helps Larson).
FYI the Love & Mercy song was (surprisingly) deemed ineligible.
I hope no Jennifer Lawrence or Jane Fonda. They are rich, vain and need to give it a rest.
Do you mean there's a good chance Helen will show up to the Oscar ceremony even if she's not nominated? Probably true if it gets her on camera.
The Martian.... is this year's Blind Side.
Ryan - How is Larson 1 of 2 actresses to win a critics' prize? Rampling won Boston and LA, and Ronan was the runner-up for both groups; Ronan won NY and DC. NBR is not a critics' prize. Am I missing one?
I think most people expected Larson to be a bigger player with critics' groups and were surprised when Ronan came on a lot stronger than expected. Larson doesn't look like such a definitive frontrunner anymore; it feels like a race between Ronan and Larson, and even Rampling could upset.
By the way, Rampling is totally winning the European Film Award tonight (Laia, t'estimem!).
The whole Sly Stallone thing drives me crazy. How can we stop it?
For some reason, the idea of Patricia Arquette and Jennifer Jason Leigh winning back-to-back supporting Oscars makes me at peace with the universe.
I kind of wish that Mara and Vikander will be nominated in suporting (with Mara winning)
And Charlotte Rampling to win! with Ronan and Larson as co-nominees.
It is Leo's year, in my opinion.
And if Keaton doesn't get nominated (and if he does, he MUST win), I am all up for Mark Rylance gettihg an Oscar.
MY ACTING PREDICTIONS
ACTOR
Cranston
Fassbender
Dicaprio
Depp
Tremblay
ACTRESS
Mara
Rampling
Roman
Blanchett
Larson
S/ACTOR
Elba
Keaton
Rylance
Stallone
Hardy
S/ACTRESS
Winslet
Mirren
Fonda
McAdams
Vikander
I just need Shannon and Dano to get into the Supporting race for sure. Also Mark Ruffalo for Spotlight since they'll surely ignore his wonderful lead performance in Infinitely Polar Bear.
If Room over performs and Tremblay misses out, I will be disappointed.
@Suzanne
Dominating critics prizes means nothing to Oscar. Look at all the critical precursor support Chastain received for Zero Dark Thirty and lost most of the televised awards including the Oscar to the inferior Lawrence for the interior Silver Linings Playbook.
I think you're underestimating The Big Short personally. I haven't seen it but it seems like the kind of movie "the industry" would rally behind - a bunch of white guys get self-righteous about the economic crisis.
Yep -- i probably add. i boosted it up to #10 on the Best Picture chart and into Best Screenplay but i'm resisting it otherwise. possibly to my downfall
Best Picture:
"Ripped from the Headlines": The Big Short, Spotlight, Bridge of Spies, Trumbo and Beasts of No Nation
"For the (Fan-)Boys": The Martian, The Revenant and Mad Max: Fury Road
"Women's Pictures": Carol and Room
From that perspective, I'd say that at this point the race is between The Big Short, Mad Max and Carol. ;-)
@Suzanne - Larson won New York Film Critics Online.
Inspired by Paul Outlaw (although his are possible, mine aren't).
Best Picture:
Crowd Pleasing Moneymakers:
Mad Max: Fury Road, Bridge of Spies, The Hateful Eight, Spy
Viewers Fell in Love:
Brooklyn, Love and Mercy, Trumbo
Beautifully Acted, Gorgeous Looking:
Carol, Crimson Peak
The Timely Miracle:
In Jackson Heights
(Yes, we can all live together).
Your Best Actress lineup gives me hope—I like it! That'd be a fabulous list.
I do wish Isabella Rossellini were still on your chart—especially if you imagine that voters are feeling Fonda and Rampling. Joy reviewers are saving some of their best citations for her. She's the only element of the film I've seen unbegrudging praise for. I'd put her in a top 10, sight unseen, precursors be damned, particularly since people will see the film.
Let's just *say* that Joy is a two-nomination film (a sharp quality decline from American Hustle's 10) and one is Lawrence. The other won't be a tech nod. It'll be a textbook Russell pickup in a wide-open supporting category.
OMG, Nathaniel Just saw a TV spot for 'The Danish Girl' advertising a "Supporting Actress" nomination for Alicia Vikander. Either a flub or shameless -- probably the latter.
Not a flub, it's the official campaign.
OMG, Nathaniel Just saw a TV spot for 'The Danish Girl' advertising a "Supporting Actress" nomination for Alicia Vikander. Either a flub or shameless -- probably the latter.
Damon should get a best actor nomination there is no movie with out him...Stallone acts his age and gives it his all in "Creed"
3rtful - Actually, Lawrence did better with critics' awards than Chastain in 2012. She won LAFCA (tied with Riva) and came in second at NYFFC and NSFC (Chastain came in 4th and 3rd, respectively). She won numerous regional critics' awards as well. It was probably key to her momentum. But Chastain won NBR, just like Larson.
That the season is still this open after the SAG and GG nominations is the thing I'm enjoying most about the season so far.
There seem to be a few locks emerging: The Martian and Spotlight for Best Picture and Director (I'm hesitant about calling Carol a lock at this point, though it is looking stronger and stronger), Ronan and Blanchett for Best Actress, and Rylance for Supporting Actor. They seem to me like the only ones that can't miss for now. I am pulling big-time for Mara to get a lead nomination - and this feels like the best chance since Thelma & Louise for a double Best Actress-nominated film.
I think that Star Wars: The Force Awakens is a huge unknown in the race. It could get several technical nods and even a Best Picture nod, or it could just get two or three nods. We'll see.
In the Picture bracket, the write-ups for Spotlight and The Martian are mixed up.
I can still see Caine happening, much like Gary Oldman had an unexpected nom a few years back.