Oscar Chart Updates - All Categories
Tuesday, September 8, 2015 at 8:28PM 
Though we're still quite early in even the review process (festival bows never tell the whole story) the advanced word on many of the fall contenders is turning out to be quite strong. This is good news for moviegoers of course but not such good news for fans of early releases like Mad Max Fury Road, Inside Out, Straight Outta Compton and more. Oscar voters tends to have short memories IF whatever is in front of them is quite pleasing at the end of the year. So early year releases better hope that the Thanksgiving and Christmas biggies fall a bit flat since it looks like September and October will be beautiful months at movie theaters.
It's premature to update the charts BEFORE Toronto begins or Venice even ends, we realize, but they needed tinkering any way. Some films and even release dates will likely remain mysteries for another month or so but the field is getting clearer with lots of reportedly quality pictures in the mix.
Chart gains for Mad Max Fury Road and spotlight. Losses for Suffragette
EVERY CHART UPDATED
prediction index | PICTURE | DIRECTOR | ACTRESS | ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SCREENPLAYS | FOREIGN | ANIMATED FILMS & DOCS | CINEMATOGRAPHY, COSTUMES, etc... | ORIGINAL SCORE, SOUND, etc...
Reader Comments (33)
Tom Hooper got no Best Director nod for Les Mis and he ain't getting one for the Danish Girl. For some reason you're overconfident with Sicario. People say Blunt's character is doormat-ish, if it's true, I don't want her nominated for lesser performances.
The actress from The Danish Girl will be campaigned supporting. Emily Blunt would get in if this year were a typical weak year for women.
Nicely done. Thank you for your hard work.
Under BSA - I feel it was Anne Marie Duff that got all the raves of the supporting ladies for Suffragette?
Did you see the Our Brand is Crisis trailer? Hmmm, maybe not this year Sandra. Too competitive by far.
Nicely done. Thank you for your hard work.
Under BSA - I feel it was Anne Marie Duff that got all the raves of the supporting ladies for Suffragette?
Did you see the Our Brand is Crisis trailer? Hmmm, maybe not this year Sandra. Too competitive by far.
I don't really have all that many thoughts, although Sufragette sure didn't go down particularly well from what I've heard, which is a real shame. MAD MAX is such a conundrum, isn't it? It seems far too idiosyncratic to resonate broadly, but then it's the films that stand out from the crowd that usually end up doing better than we expect. If it's box office was a bit better then I'd have more confidence. I reckon it will win some big prizes though and ultimately pull out some tech nods like editing, visual effects and sound. I will hope beyond hope for a George Miller surprise. You never know...
I liked Jenny Lewis' song from RICKI AND THE FLASH, but I actually prefer her "In April" from SONG ONE a movie that came and went in January (I saw it at Sundance) with Anne Hathaway and people sort of dismissed as BEGIN AGAIN AGAIN or something. It's not the best movie of the year, but the song is excellent. If voters see it in context of the film then it might have a chance to pull a CHASING ICE and come out of nowhere for a nomination.
Yavor, that's an odd thing to say. A character's traits are a strange thing to choose to hang an actor's nomination on (for a film not many people have seen yet).
Those supporting categories look promising. I hope they hold! (That best actor top five, though, is pretty dire.)
And I'll be crossing my fingers all season long that Inside Out and Mad Max are well represented.
NAT - Have you seen The Second Mother?
I just watched the movie here in Brazil and was blown away. But I wasn't aware of it as an award contender.
I wanted to know if the film resonated with foreign audiences and on what your prediction is based?
I'm just thrilled.
Thank you by excellent work on the oscar coverage, by the way.
The reviews I read from Suffragette seemed lukewarm to positive on the movie as a whole, but everyone was very very impressed with Carey Mulligan, so I think she still has a great shot.
I don't understand Feinberg's "lukewarm" appraisal of Carol in Telluride. Everyone seems to love it and I think it's a strong contender in the major categories as well as costume, production design and makeup.
Buzz on Our Brand is Crisis is pretty strong from what I've heard, particularly for Bullock. The trailer was released today and it looks pretty slick and entertaining. May be just a commercial play but you never know. The talent attached is top-notch, and the Academy loves Sandy.
Should "About Ray" with Elle Fanning, Watts and Sarrandon be in the conversation?
@BVR - I'm very much looking forward to Aboyt Ray. I hope it's good and gets some awards recognition.
I found Bullock interesting in the trailer of Our Brand is Crisis but the movie didn't seem intriguing to me.
/3rtful -- we'll see. as we learn each year in september these decisions are highly fluid.
I was struck by how bad Our Brand Is Crisis looked (and how miscast Bullock seemed). Maybe we'll do a YNMS on it.
Pete Hammond's seen it & he said Sandy should get a nom,Winslet must be v strong to leap up to number one on Nat's predictions,here comes nom number 7 for both K/Cate's this year.
Pete Hammond thinks everyone and everything should get a nod.
Was overall word on Suffragette not good? I only read a handful of pieces about it, but they were all strongly positive.
Still think Streep should be higher....
Joan Allen seems to be getting good reviews for her work in "Room." Will she end up being in the mix for Best Supporting Actress?
Justin Chang's review might have a rotten tomato, but it's not exactly a bad review. THR loved it. I still believe it will be a popular movie and an Oscar player.
I strongly suggest you to add The Second Mother's Regina Casé to Best Actress talk. OK, it's foreign and nobody knows her, but if Oscilloscope manages to get people to see the movie, she'll be undeniable
Cal Roth - Kim Masters of The Hollywood Reporter/The Business, tweeted that Regina Case deserves a best actress nomination as well. Must be quite an impressive performance.
I will look out for this film.
Nate, some of these are so...messy? Brendan Gleeson? Bradley Cooper over De Niro and Ramirez, both of whom have mountains of screentime?
Beasts of No Nation in 'Others to Watch' while Star Wars, Straight Outta Compton are above it? I'm perplexed. Elba in Lead? Granted, category placement this season is at an all-time high of crazy.
Rachel McAdams? The Joy women in 'Everyone else'? Actually, the lack of Joy other than Lawrence is strange.
Granted, it is only September lol.
What about Coen's "Hail, Caesar!" Oscar chances? I know it is set for a February release... but could it get a limited release in order to compete for the awards season?
@jamie
I am as big a fan as you are of Streep ... but that was not a nominating performance
At best, she will get a Golden Globe nod ...
Rick- I do agree with you and am a huge Streep fan. But I will say I was surprised by other nominated performances which I thought she would not get so why not this one? I do believe and agree with Nathaniel that this some of her best work since Prada. And the performance shows us something "new" from her in an already monumental career. A win for Golden Globe and underwhelming performances from some may have this performance come remembered by voting time. She has received more raves from critics than you would believe.
That being said- I do not think there is any campaign planned for Oscar, I think she is fine sitting out this year, ( maybe showing up to support Suffragette if that hits big) and coming back next year strong earning her 20th with Florence Foster Jenkins which seems like a done deal.
erik anderson -- are you saying you've seen JOY?
@Nathaniel - No, I haven't. But many of the films any of us are predicting haven't been seen. That doesn't or shouldn't preclude it from predictions though. I just thought it was odd that you had it so low everywhere save Lawrence.
Love these charts Nate, as usual.
But there is no way I can see Cate Blanchett MISSING a Best Actress nomination- especially for what many are calling her best work (even more so then Blue Jasmine). Category confusion my eye. I think Mara is going to be supporting. We'll see.
@Jason Travis - I agree. I don't think this category 'confusion' is going to end up anywhere other than Blanchett in Lead and Mara in Supporting. TWC isn't stupid, it'll play out just like A:OC. But don't be surprised if LAFCA gives Mara a Best Actress win like they did with Patricia Arquette last year.
Brendan - Oh, I would love to see Joan Allen nominated... Room sounds much more interesting than a lot of these films.
Brasil confirms: The Second Mother to compete foreign film
O filme nacional mais comentado deste ano, "Que Horas Ela Volta?", de Anna Muylaert, foi escolhido para representar o Brasil na disputa por uma vaga na categoria de melhor filme em língua estrangeira no Oscar 2016.
O anúncio foi feito pelo Ministério da Cultura, nesta quinta-feira (10), no Rio de Janeiro, logo após reunião da Comissão Especial de Seleção.
No filme, Regina Casé vive Val, uma empregada doméstica que mora com seus patrões. Sua condição e seus direitos começam a ser questionados pela filha Jéssica (Camila Mardila), que deixa o nordeste e vai morar com a mãe em São Paulo para poder prestar vestibular.
Bastante elogiado, inclusive pela imprensa estrangeira, "Que Horas Ela Volta?" chegou a ser cotado pela site "Indiewire", um dos mais respeitados de Hollywood, como forte candidato à uma indicação na categoria. Outras apostas são o francês "Dheepan", o mexicano "Gueros", o turco "Mustang" e o húngaro "Son of Saul".
Em sua carreira no exterior, "Que Horas Ela Volta?" já levou prêmios de atuação no Festival de Sundance, da crítica e do público na mostra Panorama do Festival de Berlim, e de melhor filme em Amsterdã, entre outros.
Também se inscreveram para concorrer à indicação os filmes "A História da Eternidade", de Camilo Cavalcante, "Alguém Qualquer", de Tristan Aronovich, "Campo de Jogo", de Eryc Rocha, "Casa Grande", de Felipe Barbosa, "Entrando numa Roubada", de André Moraes, "Estrada 47", de Vicente Ferraz, e "Estranhos", de Paulo Alcântara.
Nos últimos anos, os representantes brasileiros foram "Hoje Eu Quero Voltar Sozinho", de Daniel Ribeiro (2015); "O Som ao Redor", de Kleber Mendonça Filho (2014); "O Palhaço", de Selton Mello (2013); "Tropa de Elite 2: o Inimigo agora É Outro", de José Padilha (2012); "Lula, o Filho do Brasil", de Fábio Barreto (2011); e "Salve Geral", de Sérgio Rezende (2010).
O último filme brasileiro a conseguir uma indicação ao Oscar de filme estrangeiro foi "Central do Brasil", na edição de 1999, que também teve Fernanda Montenegro concorrendo na categoria de melhor atriz.
A lista de indicados ao Oscar 2016 será conhecida em 14 de janeiro. Antes, em dezembro, a Academia já divulga os finalistas de algumas categorias, incluindo a de filme estrangeiro.
Jamie..
Your points are very good... I love her concert parts in RATF... I bought the sound track and because I saw the movie, I really am enjoying it..
Also, I do hope she is outstanding in Florence ...
I have to disagree about her performances since Prada... IMO I thought she hit the nail on the head in August .. I saw the play twice and she was as good as each actress I saw in the role + I taught the play and she nailed the character.. Most critics felt she overacted, but that WAS Violet....
Sorry Nath, but erik is right... I mean Rachel McAdams?! Seriously?! Her reviews aren't even the best comparing the same cast and sorry but "sensibility and grit" aren't Outstanding. Maybe she's liked by many people, but are we really sure the voters will care about her? It's not like she's an overdue actress (Like Jason Leigh could be) or a star with consinstent filmography (Her most iconic roles are past 10 years). I'm wondering if there's a hard case of blind fanatism by some people related to Rachel McAdams, because another actress in her same level of success/failure would have been called as a "has been". And yep, predicting her )With the hoppla of Spotlight having cooled and these lukewarming reviews) over one of the Joy ladies, considering: a. The success of David O. Russell and b. His path to create colorful female characters is seriously misguided.
Rick- I loved her in August too. That was another nomination some suspected she would not get either.