Friday
Sep022016
All Oscar Charts Updated
Friday, September 2, 2016 at 6:44PM 
ICYMI. With Venice & Telluride in swing and Toronto almost in session, the race is off. But a word to the wise - it's a marathon not a sprint.
INDEX
Handy chart (final pre-festival guesswork) and nomination tallies
PIC | DIRECTOR | ACTOR | ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS
The marquee categories
FOREIGN | FOREIGN A-F | FOREIGN F-N | FOREIGN N-Z
Updated Frequently. 15 Official Submissions in foreign language film category thus far. New films added today include entries from Egypt, Bosnia, Hungary, Sweden, and Belgium
VISUALS | AURALS | ANIMATION & DOCS | SCREENPLAYS
Some of our favorite categories
Reader Comments (18)
Please please change the name of Switzerland's entry to MY LIFE AS A COURGETTE. I don't think I have heard it referred to as Zucchini anywhere! :-) it's a beautiful little film that benefits from having the more poetic-sounding title.
Travis C -- i've suddenly heard Zucchini everywhere but I'll look into it.
I think the position of Arrival is at least a bit generous (The Academy doesn't really go in for consciously "weighty" sci-fi as much as you'd think they would or should, 6th place max, probably closer to 9th-12th considering Villeneuve, though good, is not perceived to be on the level of Spielberg (Close Encounters was 6th place in '77) or Spike Jonze (Her)) and Silence should be a huge question mark. Why? No festival appearances. No official trailer. No official teaser. No official POSTER. It's early September, and it's a Scorsese movie. NONE of that having been gotten into gear makes me think it'll either be A: another year without Silence or that B: Silence is actually a dog that Scorsese has been trying and failing to salvage in the booth and that they'll wind up slotting it, WIDE, into one of the early January slots to earn SOMETHING off it. And considering the screenwriter? I'd honestly lean on B being the end result.
I can't believe that you have already thrown Florence Foster Jenkins into the trash!
It's looking like Adams is more likely for Nocturnal Animals.
Do we know whether there's been some indication as to which of France or Poland can submit The Innocents? Having seen it the other day, that's a strong candidate for a nomination if it's submitted, unless they decide it's too similar to Ida.
Many of these look like TV movies. Of course mine is a gem.
I'd love to see France submit THINGS TO COME.
Captain - not so! I have it down for 2 or 3 nominations with Meryl possible as well
Nathaniel- You have Meryl at Tier 2. Any other actress that started the awards season out of the gate with those reviews would be tier 1. Even the commercials says she looks ready for her 20th nomination! The actresses at tier 2 should be the amazing performances we have yet to see.
Of your actual non-wildcard acting nominee predictions, I think your least likely to happen ones:
>Edgerton - The competition is just way too fierce and Ruth Negga appears to be the one sucking up all the Hosannas.
>Chastain - Once again, I think the competition will be too fierce and I just have little faith this film will be any good.
Of the director predictions, I hope your right about Villeneuve! But have my doubts about him getting in over more typically oscar-baity films. It was a travesty that he did not get in last year for Sicario > that film was a total showcase for him and he was brilliant (I would have had Miller in first and Him and Haynes fighting it out for Silver with Garland in 4th.)
@jamie: I don't think a film's own advertising is a reliable indicator of its awards prospects.
Streep has certainly gotten nominations for work in films with comparable reception over the years, but I wouldn't say that places it in the first tier at this point.
Sean C. - I see your point about the advertising but it is Streep's best critical reviews in years.
To have Chastain, Bening, and Davis ahead of her with sight unseen movies just seems odd to me especially at this early point in the awards season. Just my opinion.
@jamie
I think if Meryl really WANTS the nom, she'll get it.
Personally I'm fine with FFJ being her best reviewed lead role this decade (and the majority of the last) and that she'll get her 30th (!!!) Globe nod for it.
A 20th Oscar nom is HUGE imo and I really want her to WIN a fourth at that number. Lead or Supporting... I'm for both. If another Lead, than great, but another in Supporting would make her the first actress to win both acting categories twice.
Then again.... I'd love to see her reaction if.... well, WHEN Viola Davis wins. She'd not just jump out of her seat (like she did for her pal Cher in 1988), but she'd jump ON her seat. Estatically. The GIF would be EPIC!
How great would it be if it was Adams, Benning, Davis, Stone, Streep.
Hugh Grant wins supporting male.
I believe Meryl will get the nomination but make no mistake it will be Viola's year -with the Oscars diversity issue- the coronation is already in place whether or not Denzel creates a bad film. Streep will still be her most enthusiastic supporter!
I think Meryl is fantastic in Florence Foster Jenkins, but it's not true that any other actress who'd had reviews that greatly praise her performance would be a shoo-in for a nomination. Lily Tomlin and Blythe Danner had ecstatic reviews last year, and Julie Delpy, Brie Larson, and Greta Gerwig had ecstatic reviews in 2014. None of them received Oscar nominations in those years. (In fact, Meryl has been nominated for some of her less critically acclaimed performances in recent years, so one shouldn't necessarily extrapolate that critical acclaim for a Streep performance means anything where an Oscar nomination is concerned.)
Suzanne -- so true. Meryl is the default. She's where they go if they're not excited about enough other people. Because they're always excited about her. Or at least willing to vote for her.
Jamie -- Viola might always go supporting (that role was considered supporting in its broadway debut in 87 (tony nomination)... and then lead in its broadway revival in 2010 when Viola played it (tony win) so who knows.