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« Review: Red Sparrow | Main | "BPM" takes the César »
Saturday
Mar032018

Final Oscar Predictions

A shorter version of this article was originally shared on Towleroad

With the 90th Academy Awards coming tomorrow another tradition must precede it:  predicting the Oscar winners! If you're a frequent reader of The Film Experience, you've probably been following this race for an entire year and now it's about to end. Those who only follow in the last month have a lot of catching up to do (I have a friend here in NYC doing that Best Picture marathon -- all nine movies).  If you'd like to keep up more emphatically next year please sign up for our mailing list as we will begin weekly newsletters shortly after the Oscars with exclusive content.

 

But this season's race ends Sunday night. Hopefully without a snafu on the epic scale of last year’s Envelope Gate when La La Land was read out as Best Picture when Moonlight had actually won. Can you believe that Warren Beatty and Faye Dunaway are returning for a do over? (Or do you think that news is smoke and mirrors to hide another surprise in store?)

I am sad to share that there’s a possibility that all of the best “Best Pictures” (Get Out, Lady Bird, and Call Me By Your Name) go home empty-handed but what else is new? Not to be pessimistic but Oscar night is often a come down from the multiple-winners joy of nomination morning. Or to quote the great Stephen McKinley Henderson in Lady Bird...


 

The high probability of wins you don't like is why you should always attend or throw a fun Oscar party and try not to take it too seriously. Enjoy the gowns and the speeches and celebrate every film and celebrity you love as they're paraded before you on Hollywood's High Holy Night. 

Let’s call each individual Oscar race after the jump. Links will take you to the Oscar chart in question...

Animated, Documentary, and Live-Action Shorts
Will Win: Even if you’ve watch all 15 of these shorts— easier to do now that there’s always a touring theatrical release and some are available online — it can be hard to guess winners. So let’s toss a coin and say it’ll be Heroin(e) about the opiod epidemic for Documentary, Silent Child about a deaf child  for Live-Action, and Kobe Bryant’s poetic Dear Basketball for Animated (in no small part due to his celebrity since you dont have to watch the films to vote on them) . We know full well that we could be wrong all all three counts. If we are, let’s say its the interracial love story of Edith+Eddie, the gun in school drama DeKalb Elementary, and the BAFTA-winning Revolting Rhymes as spoilers. You can read lots more about each of these at our team's reviews of the categories: Animated, Documentary, and Live Action.

How many Oscars will Dunkirk win? I think maybe 3.

Sound Mixing and Sound Editing
Will WinDunkirk … or maybe Baby Driver. Though there are two sound categories you wouldn’t know it given Oscar’s tendency to nominated and reward the same films in both. That's especially true this year since the two categories have the same nominations exactly (usually it's more of a 4/5 situation). This year the World War II land / air / sea epic Dunkirk looks most likely for both prizes but don’t be surprised if Baby Driver or Blade Runner 2049 steals one of the statues.
Should Win: From these nominations I'd probably go with Baby Driver for Mixing and Blade Runner 2049 for editing? Still thinking about. (I wish Dunkirk wouldn't win mixing because I couldn't understand the dialogue half the time in the planes.)  
Also nominated:  Star Wars: The Last Jedi and The Shape of Water

Documentary Feature
Will Win: Tough call. Last Man in Aleppo has some goodwill for it but a short on this same topic called White Helmets won just last year. Abacus is probably too low profile to win. Strong Island, which gave us our first openly trans Oscar nominee in director Yance Ford, would make for a historic win but seems like a stretch. I’m guessing that the race is between the rural France travel picture Faces Places and the sports scandal doc IcarusFaces Places is much more light and whimsical than voters are usually willing to go in this category (where they often preference subject matter over execution) but it would give them a chance to honor French New Wave icon Agnès Varda with a competitive Oscar to go with the Honorary statue she received last year. We know Hollywood loves her -- how often do you think of that moment when she danced with Angelina Jolie at the Governor's Ball? For me it's often! — but I’m guessing that the anti-doping doc Icarus might have the edge since it’s both been in and made the news.
Should Win: I can't comment here as I haven't seen all five.

Original Score
Will Win: This one’s easy. Alexandre Desplat, Hollywood’s in-demand and tireless composer, will win again for The Shape of Water.
Should Win: Jonny Greenwood’s luxurious Phantom Threadmusic
Also nominatedDunkirk, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, and Three Billboards

 

Original Song
Will Win: It’s likely a dead heat between The Greatest Showman’s “This is Me” and Coco’s moving “Remember Me”. But I think Pasek & Paul will take their second consecutive Oscar for “This Is Me”. They won last year for “City of Stars” from La La Land.
Should Win: “This Is Me” – sorry not sorry. Most cheesy inspirational anthems wish they were this much of an ear worm.
Also nominated: “Mystery of Love” by Sufjan Stevens (♥️) from Call Me By Your Name, “Mighty River” by Mary J Blige for Mudbound, and “Stand For Something” from Marshall.

Daniela Vega will be the first ever trans presenter at the Oscars

Foreign Film
Will Win: This might be the only true five-way race on Oscar night as no clear frontrunner has emerged. The Hungarian nominee On Body and Soul (currently streaming on Netflix) is eerily memorable and both funny and sad, The Swedish nominee and art-world satire The Square was the biggest international hit among the nominees and also has the cachet of being the Cannes Palme d’Or winner. Lebanon’s first nomination The Insult is a genuine crowd-pleaser.  If voters are leaning arty and fearless this year they could embrace the Russian nominee Loveless. It’s a severe movie but it’s deeply haunting and we know the Academy likes the director because this is his second nomination in this very category (after Leviathan). And finally a lot of people love Chile’s trans drama A Fantastic Woman.  In the absence of a clear frontrunner, I’m betting they’ll default to the earliest and thus most familiar sensation, The Square but I don't feel confident in this prediction at all. Five way race!
Should Win: Meanwhile we’ll just be over here fuming that the rightful winner of this statue, France’s epic sexy artful provocative and enraging AIDS drama BPM didn’t even make their finals!

Make Up and Hair
Will / Should WinDarkest Hour. Sometimes the Academy likes to pretend that actors who “transform” do so solely with their acting gift. When Charlize Theron won for Monster (2003) they didn’t even nominated that genius complex makeup work which transformed the legendary beauty into a serial killer Aileen Wournos . But that probably won’t be the case this year since the prosthetic work to make Gary Oldman, whose still in good shape, look like jowly obese Winston Churchill has gotten a lot of press. And though hair is always a forgotten portion of this prize, Darkest Hour also has the best wigs, Kristin Scott Thomas is fierce with white hair, honey.
Also nominatedWonder and Victoria and Abdul

Visual Effects
Will WinBlade Runner 2049 has five tech nominations and looks likely to win somewhere. My guess it's here.
Should Win: And now a moment of silence for War for the Planet of the Apes. This franchise keeps losing this category despite its starting effects work.
Just happy to be nominated!Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Kong Skull Island, and Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Film Editing
Will Win: This prize is often paired with the Best Picture winner but I don’t think that will be the case this year. When they don’t pair it with BP it usually goes to a technical marvel so Dunkirk with its three concurrent time frames gimmick will probably win barring a surprise upset from Shape of Water (if Shape wins here, I’d be surprised to see it lose Best Picture).
Should WinBaby Driver 
Just Happy to Be Nominated!: I Tonya and Three Billboards

I'm predicting The Shape of Water to win 4 Oscars: Director, Production Design, Original Score, and Cinematography

Production Design
Will / Should Win: I suppose Blade Runner 2049 could win this if they were truly blown away. It is the most effortful nominee. But my suspicion is this is the easiest win outside of Original Score for The Shape of Water given the memorably green color scheme and all those cool sets including government testing facilities, old movie theaters, and spacious quirky apartments.
Just Happy to Be Nominated!: the gaudy Disney castle of Beauty and the Beast, the subterranean war rooms and bunkers of Darkest Hour, and the various vessels of Dunkirk.

Cinematography
Will Win: Most pundits are predicting Blade Runner 2049 here but I'm going with The Shape of Water because voters don't see names on their ballots in the craft categories, just film titles. And the membership at large obviously loved Guillermo del Toro's green wet fantasy/romance/monster movie. Plus it's memorable looking.
Should Win: Roger Deakins work on Blade Runner 2049  would be an ideal place to reward him for his whole career. Because he also actually deserves it for just this year.
Just Happy to Be Nominated!: DunkirkMudbound, Darkest Hour. 

Costume Design
Will Win / Should Win: Given the subject matter of the film, and the weakness of this category overall this year (if you think about, there really aren’t any future iconic looks among these nominees) Phantom Thread takes this in a walk.
Just Happy to Be Nominated!Beauty and the Beast, Darkest Hour, The Shape of Water, and Victoria and Abdul

I think Mudbound winning Adapted Screenplay will be a surprise of the night.

Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: This category has given me such anxiety. All signs point to a win for Call Me By Your Name and, thus, the iconic four time nominee James Ivory, one of the greatest directors who ever lived and, incidentally, one of my personal queer heroes. But I fear and am thus predicting an upset from Mudbound which has a lot of hardcore fans who will be looking for a way to honor it.
Should WinCall Me By Your Name
Just Happy to Be Nominated!The Disaster Artist, Logan, and Molly’s Game.

Original Screenplay
Will Win: A real nail-biter this year with three options that all seem like viable winners. This would be a perfect place to honor Greta Gerwig’s Lady Bird success. This would be a perfect place to honor Jordan Peele’s zeitgeist-capturing Get Out. This would be a likely place to honor Martin McDonagh’s provocative Three Billboards if its headed for a Best Picture win. I honestly go back and forth every hour on who will win but I’m going to predict Get Out with Three Billboards as a highly likely spoiler.
Should Win: Wins for either Get Out or Lady Bird would be thrilling.
Just Happy to Be Nominated!The Shape of Water and The Big Sick

Supporting Actress
Will Win: This is all locked up for Allison Janney’s fun crowd-pleasing caricature of a monster mom in I Tonya.
Should Win: But why has Janney been steam-rolling at award shows when Emmy and Tony winner Laurie Metcalf is right there being a total and utter genius in three dimensions as Lady Bird’s tense exhausted sarcastic mother?
Just Happy to Be Nominated!: Lesley Manville as the icy sister in Phantom Thread, Octavia Spencer as the trusted coworker friend in The Shape of Water, and Mary J Blige as a weary wary mother in Mudbound. You can read lots more about this category at our annual Supporting Actress Smackdown.

Supporting Actor
Will Win: All locked up for Sam Rockwell which is a bit confusing since his racist cop in Three Billboards has taken most of the brunt of the backlash against that film.
Should Win: We’ll be over here shedding a tear for Willem Dafoe’s brilliant work as a kindly but not push-overable motel manager in The Florida Project.
Just Happy to Be Nominated!: Richard Jenkins as a gay ad man in The Shape of Water, Woody Harrelson as a cancer-striken police chief in Three Billboards, and Christopher Plummer as the richest man in the world in All the Money in the World.

His & hers Oscars for these two on Sunday night.

Lead Actress
Will Win: Frances McDormand’s fire and fury and f***ing potty-mouth in Three Billboards will give her a second Oscar bookend. She won 21 years ago for her much kinder classic turn in Fargo.
Should Win: McDormand is fierce af but I’m partial to Saoirse Ronan who is perfect in Lady Bird or Sally Hawkins  who is so endearing in The Shape of Water. 
Just Happy to Be Nominated!: Margot Robbie as Olympian Tonya Harding in I Tonya, and mandatory-nominee -whenever-she-makes-a-movie Meryl Streep in The Post.

Lead Actor
Will Win: Gary Oldman’s succulent ham as Winston Churchill in Darkest Hour will earn him one of those lifetime achievement awards.
Should Win: But everyone knows the winner should be young Timothée Chalamet in Call Me By Your Name. Maybe it’s easy to pretend to be in love with Armie Hammer (just a guess) but Timothée is also multilingual, plays piano, and is just revelatory in body language and in closeups. So you can find us over by the fireplace weeping our tender hearts out at his loss.
Just Happy to Be Nominated!: Daniel Day Lewis’s egotistical fashion designer in Phantom Thread, Daniel Kaluuya’s hypnotized boyfriend in Get Out, and Denzel Washington as an aging civil rights lawyer in Roman J Israel Esq

Director
Will Win: Everyone at the televised precursor awards seems to have happily jumped onboard the narrative that it’s Guillermo del Toro’s time. The monster-loving Mexican director behindThe Shape of Water will win for this career long individuality and creativity.
Should Win: Tough call between Greta Gerwig who makes directing a coming-of-age masterpiece like Lady Bird effortless, or Jordan Peele who balances sociological satire with horror comedy with interracial drama and spoke to just about everyone with the zeitgeist smash Get Out.
Just Happy to Be Nominated!: Paul Thomas Anderson for Phantom Thread, and Chris Nolan for Dunkirk. This is a really strong category, guys.

One of these three movies will be winning Best Picture

Picture
Will Win: The end goal for all those Oscar-seeking motion pictures. The preferential ballot, which is only used for this category and means that voters have to rank the 9 nominees rather than pick one winner, has delivered us semi-surprises lately like little Moonlight beating juggernaut La La Land and, to a less surprising degree, Spotlight beating nomination behemoth The Revenant
Going into the voting last week Three Billboards had won a lot of Best Picture prizes including at BAFTA and the Globes with Shape of Water taking the Producers and Directors Guild awards. Some pundits are predicting that the brilliant Get Out surprises, sneaking up in between them because it won’t likely be last on anyone’s ballot, but that feels like wishful thinking to me. My prediction is that Three Billboards takes it. The film is not as divisive in the real world as it is online. What's more, acting branch, which is the largest in the Academy, obviously loves it. But  a win for The Shape of Water would not be even 1% as surprising as Envelope-Gate last year.
Should WinGet Out and Lady Bird both strike me as movies that will still be loved 20 years from now so one of them should absolutely win. Also they are my personal favorites. If only there could be a tie!
Just Happy to Be Nominated!Phantom Thread, Call Me By Your Name, Dunkirk, Darkest Hour, and The Post

HOW EXCITED ARE YOU FOR TOMORROW'S BIG EVENT?

For a handy chart of predictions, see our index of the category pages

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Reader Comments (35)

I don't want to claim I called Beatty and Dunaway returning to announce Best Pictures first - but I was crossing my fingers for it to happen for almost a year...

March 3, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterMrW

Two things: In the year of #metoo, it feels wrong for Kobe Bryant to be winning an Oscar. And it seems strange that I, Tonya didn't manage a costume nomination.

March 3, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterCash

I similarly am not predicting Deakins to finally win, though it seems he's as close as he's ever been. As much as I don't like to rely on stats, Cinematography simply favors Best Picture would-bes rather than virtuosic non-BP players. Isn't some of the reason that Deakins hasn't won because his work is often in movies people don't largely like, or at least don't have warmth for? Despite its many nominations, do voters actually like Blade Runner?

March 3, 2018 | Registered CommenterChris Feil

Nathaniel, you love stats. When was the last time a year's top winners from Berlin, Cannes, and Venice were all up for Oscars in the same year?

March 3, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterNicolas Mancuso

McDormand won 21 years ago.

March 3, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterJoe

Faye Dunaway-Warren Beatty: This is the Academy's way of saying that it's OK; it was not entirely their fault. A couple of years ago, the MC at the Miss World contest (or whatever the name is) had the final two contestants (Miss World and the First Runner-Up) standing there and he announced the wrong name as the winner! Same case. He was invited back the following year.

I wish I could have really enjoyed Willem Dafoe's performance. I found the obnoxious, screaming, hyperactive and irritating kids a total distraction. I could not concentrate on any other aspect of the film, such as Willem Dafoe's performance. I was on the verge of walking out several times. The whole thing was totally overdone. Anyway, mind you, I thing particularly Brolynn Prince is a wonderful actress... but, please!

I wish Get Out goes home empty-handed. And, please, let's have at least ONE upset in the acting categories.

What a disappointment it would be if Roger Deakins doesn't win! Chris Feil: You say his movies are "often movies people don't largely like". Well, what about The Shawshank Redemption, one of the best-liked movies in the history of Hollywood? And Fargo and No Country for Old Men?

Timothée Chalamet: His close-up at the end is the best piece of acting without speaking since Glenn Close's scene in front of the mirror, while John Malkovich gives her some unsettling news in "Dangerous Liaisons". Timothée should get the Oscar.

Trivia induced by the expansion to 10 Best Picture nominees: I thought Michael Stuhlbarb, Timothée Chalamet and Lucas Hedges were the only ones who appeared in more than one of the BP nominees, but there's also Caleb Landry Jones in 3 Billboards and Get Out.

March 3, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterMarcos

You forgot Animated Feature (biggest lock of the night, though. We've all known the winner for ages).

March 3, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterJoe

Marcos - There's also Bradley Whitford (Get Out and The Post), Tracy Letts (Lady Bird and The Post), Nick Searcy (The Shape of Water and Three Billboards)... there was a lot of crossover among Best Picture nominees this year.

March 3, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterRichter Scale

So, playing the piano and being multilingual are your arguments? Try Bram Stoker's Dracula and Immortal Beloved. According to you, Gary must have 5 oscars at least.

March 3, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterTheCount

A boring year for the Oscars in some ways but in others it's exciting. Here's hoping it won't be one of those completely unsatisfying years where nothing you want to win does so. It may turn out that way but I still think James Ivory will win screenplay for CMBYN and that Jordan Peele will pull it out for Get Out. In the far less-likely scenario, should Metcalf somehow pull off the BSA win I will squeal with joy.

March 3, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterRob

“Two things: In the year of #metoo, it feels wrong for Kobe Bryant to be winning an Oscar.“

Not to mention second best actor winner in a row accused of assaulting women.

March 3, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterJK

Go slanderers go! Show your hate through lies and defamation! Support your picks the way you only can, spreading bs about innocent people

March 3, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterTheCount

Just saw Call Me By Your Name today ...... Stuhlbarg was excellent (and reminded me so much of my own father, lucky me !) as expected, but does anybody agree that Amira Casar is just as subtle and memorable as Elio's mother ?

That scene when Elio calls her mother to ask her to come and get him at the train station just broke my heart......

March 3, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterClement_Paris

I'm predicting Call Me By Your Name for Best Picture and Timothée Chalamet for Best Actor. I know they're both longshots (especially the film) but I've put bets on to put my money where my mouth is. I would kick myself if I didn't back them and then one of them won. If either of them does win, it'll be great.

Other than that, my predictions are pretty much in line with the consensus. I hope Get Out wins Original Screenplay. I'd like Lady Bird to get something. I'll be fine with Del Toro winning Directing, but yes, that is one strong category this year. If Three Billboards wins Best Picture, it will be OK, as it is a good film. I just want a handful of surprises tomorrow night - and a good show!

March 3, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterEdward L.

I don't understand why Jonny Greenwood isn't winning Best Original Score? Is it not the biggest, most conspicuous, most classically beautiful score of the lot? Don't you think voters would remember it most?

March 3, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterJonathan

Fingers crossed for a Chalamet upset and for 3BB to only score for Frances.

March 3, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterBD

oh boy I finally watched The Post today and I'm not happy with what I saw...

so generic, so bereft of even an inch of something we haven't see before!

Remember Truth (2015)? That's a movie and a performance that had actual fire.

March 3, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterYavor

please... please... please give us one upset in an acting category (or four, really; i'd love ronan / chalamet / dafoe / metcalf)

March 3, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterCharles O

I still think Call Me By Your Name wins adapted screenplay. It's the only best picture nominee in the category and there are those who really love it. Plus, it's the only category it can feasibly win.

I think it's a coin toss between Three Billboards and Shape of Water as best picture. But I really honestly despise this voting method. Why is it that in America we have to have the most complicated voting process to decide a winner? Why can it be that the most votes wins? Period. Jesus christ.

March 3, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterAaron

@Jonathan - my thoughts exactly; I don't remember even one note of The Shape of Water's score.

March 3, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterMDA

@Jonathan - my thoughts exactly; I don't remember even one note of The Shape of Water's score.

March 3, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterMDA

"I found the obnoxious, screaming, hyperactive and irritating kids a total distraction. I could not concentrate on any other aspect of the film, such as Willem Dafoe's performance."

Marcos, you're the first person I've seen who agrees with me on this movie! I couldn't even understand most of the kids' dialogue.

March 3, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterSuzanne

I'm a total Saiorse man this year, and a total Sally man this entire lifetime. And I dont even necessarily consider Bilboards among McDormand's finest performances (or films).

...But there is something thrilling about the notion of a so-called 'character-actress' and perpetually underestimated force like Frances McDormand becoming a two-time winner.

March 3, 2018 | Unregistered Commentergoran

Goran: that’s how I feel. I really can’t get excited for Oldman and Janney, but the mere idea that Frances will have 2 lead actress Oscars is delightful, even though her performance isn’t much better than theirs. Can’t complan too much about even if Saoirse’s my Pick.

(I thought Rockwell was great.)

March 3, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterMike in Canada

I've long been thinking MUDBOUND would swipe Adapted Screenplay from CMBYN. It's the only other feasible choice and those who don't care for CMBYN would likely automatically default to that one, not to mention its own fans that will see it as the only possible place to award it and make history in the process. I'm not actually going to predict it, but I would not be shocked.

I am predicting DUNKIRK for cinematography over Deakins. The Academy has shown themselves to be very stubborn with perennial nominees if the films they're being nominated for aren't actually up their allies. I'm not sure what about BLADE RUNNER 2049 screams cinematography winner other than Deakins' name, but even when the likes of AVATAR and HUGO won, they had best picture nominations in tow. Their names aren't listed on the ballot, just the film title, and I think enough was spoken about DUNKIRK's cinematography feats (not to mention, it was an actual hit in IMAX which, well, if you saw it in IMAX it's hard to not have been awe-struck by its visuals). I'd put SHAPE OF WATER above BR2049, too, at this stage. I'll be happy to be proven wrong, but I don't think it's the slam dunk so many seem to think it is. Is there any sense people outside of the four branches that nominated it even like it?

I'm going with Revolting Rhymes for animated short because of the old adage that voters let their kids vote on the animation categories.

I think I'm going with ICARUS over FACES PLACES. I still struggle to see people voting for the latter even though everybody loves Varda. It's so light comparatively. I'd much rather prefer it to ICARUS, which isn't good, but I also think the other three nominees are light years ahead of these two.

March 3, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterGlenn Dunks

Aaron, Preferential Ballot is not just "in America". Australia uses preferential ballot for government elections where over 10 million votes are cast for a federal election and the senate voting paper can have over 100 names.
Personally, I think it is one of the better voting systems for an outcome that represents the views of the voters. I recognise that many people don't understand how it works and I don't know why that is the case. It gives each voter the way to vote for what they like even when they think their first choice won't win.
The aim is to get a winner that 50%+ of voters like most. If on first count, no nominee gets 50%+ of number 1 votes, then the nominee with the least is removed. This year, that is equivalent to saying, what if instead of 9 nominees there were only 8, how would the vote go? The ballots with the removed nominee at number1 are distributed to the nominee at number2. This repeats, reducing the number of nominees until there is one with 50+% of the vote. Given that the Oscar voting is on-line, it is not a difficult process to program and reach the result.
If you just counted most votes, with 10 nominees it is theoretically possible that a movie which only 11% of voters put first could win even if no-one else liked it at all. Would you want a divisive nominee to win even if more people hate it than like it? I think the Academy does not and that is why they use preferential voting.

March 3, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterVaus

Original screenplay: I predict "Three Billboards."

March 3, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterJake

Jake -- i fear you may be right.

March 3, 2018 | Registered CommenterNATHANIEL R

Does anybody know how to watch the Oscar online? My husband is doing chemo so he as to go to bed early and we live in a closet (appatement is soooo small) but I don't want to miss Xmas... Thank's

March 4, 2018 | Unregistered Commenterstjeans

I kno Frances Frickin McDormand is the likely winner tmrw, but I'm still holding out for Lady Bird! Go Saoirse!! Go!

March 4, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterClaran

I'd be over the moon if Get Out won Best Picture, but I can't see the Academy honoring a horror film for Best Picture, especially one about race in America. You also, sadly, can't ignore that Moonlight won last year and that will most likely stop some voters from even considering Get Out. Look what happened after 12 Years a Slave won Best Picture: Selma got 2 nominations and only won in Song. The younger generation of voters would have to go all in on Get Out and I don't see that happening, again, because it's a horror film.

Shape of Water could surprise still, but it feels like Three Billboards is the likeliest winner.

Maybe the voters will surprise us and everyone's favorite Academy-nominated genre of Saoirse Ronan Coming of Age films will sweep with Lady Bird and add some excitement to the seemingly locked-up Oscar race.

March 4, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterRobert G

You’re so right, Nat, that Three Billboards isn’t nearly as off-putting to the masses as it is to film Twitter. AMPAS is more populist than the intelligentsia, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Three Billboards clean up at the Oscars.

Desplat is one of the best composers—-his scores for Birth (2004) and The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (2008) are two of my all-time faves—but I can’t even recall his score in The Shape of Water. (Meanwhile, Greenwood’s Phantom Thread score is mood- and film-elevating.)

La Mujer Fantastica FTW, plz.

March 4, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterMareko

The only real question is original screenplay. Everything else is etched in stone. So the headlines will be three billboards won all the major awards it was up for but screenplay or it won all the major awards it was up for.

March 4, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterZo

I have a gut feeling that Get Out takes best picture & original screenplay. But my gut is more often wrong than right lol. I would love it if did (if there is no hope for Lady Bird &’CMBYN).

What a weird season. I love Allison Janney, love her. But in weird position resenting her because Laurie Metcalf deserves that Oscar. i feel the same about Frances & Sally (with apologies to Saoirse). Jesus f Christ, isn’t Sally Hawkins the best actress Oscar winner we deserve??

And Timothée...

March 4, 2018 | Unregistered Commenterchoog

PICTURE: Three Billboards
DIRECTOR: Guillermo Del Toro
ACTOR: Gary Oldman
ACTRESS: Frances McDormand
SUPPORTING ACTOR: Sam Rockwell
SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Allison Janney
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Three Billboards
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Call Me By Your Name
CINEMATOGRAPHY: Blade Runner
EDITING: Baby Driver
COSTUME DESIGN: Phantom Thread
PRODUCTION DESIGN: The Shape of Water
SOUND MIXING: Dunkirk
SOUND EDITING: Dunkirk
VISUAL EFFECTS: Blade Runner
MAKEUP: Darkest Hour
SONG: This is Me
SCORE: The Shape of Water
ANIMATED SHORT: Dear Basketball
LIVE ACTION SHORT: DeKalb Elementary
DOCUMENTARY SHORT: Traffic Stop
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: Faces Places
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: A Fantastic Woman
ANIMATED FEATURE: Coco

March 4, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterGuestguestguest

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