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July Oscar Predictions - All Charts Updated

by Nathaniel R

We've been needing to update all the Oscar charts and now we have! The charts are revamped for how we're feeling in early July about what may come to pass in seven months time or so. Big gains this month for A Star is Born, Widows, and Welcome to Marwen with setbacks for If Beale Street Could Talk, Boy Erased, Everybody Knows, and Peterloo.  Meanwhile the two arguably most talked about performances of the year thus far -- Toni Collette in Hereditary and Ethan Hawke in First Reformed make gains on their charts. 

The freshly revamped charts...


and in case you missed it: best of Jan-to-Jun (These are NOT related to predictions!)
18 Fav Male Performances
18 Fav Female Performances (this may be the first time in TFE history when an actress post delivered less comments than its male counterpart post!)
18 Biggest Hits of Many Kinds (blockbusters, arthouse, female directed, etc)
Favorites (So Far) in Multiple Categories


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Reader Comments (32)

Tyler Perry is not happening. Neither is Gaga for anything but the Globe and possibly Critics Choice.

July 8, 2018 | Unregistered Commenter/3rtful

I assume you haven’t heard of Ad Astra?!

July 8, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterGustavo Cruz

All I’m hearing is buzz about Nicole in Destroyer - you’re not biting yet?

July 8, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterMorgan

Gustavo -- i have but i have a number of concerns in terms of oscar punditry: a) it's sci-fi b) it's marked as a 2019 release still -- so until it gets a more prominent 2018 release date... and c) Oscar has yet to warm to James Gray in any fashion.

Morgan -- people keep saying they've heard buzz but i personally haven't heard anyone talking about it... and you think i would have since i am a Kidmaniac. Perhaps there's been a test screening review written up somewhere that I missed -- but i tend to take those with a grainof salt. They're. hard to keep track of plus you're getting a singular opinion that often doesnt reflect consensus or even the end result since films change after test screenings.)

/3rtful -- seen the future have we? There's nothing within Oscar's history or the history of those two celebrities to suggest that either of those things couldn't happen if a) people love the film and b) they get good reviews. Gaga has already proven once that she can win awards and great reviews for mediocre work in horror (American Horror Story: Hotel) so imagine if she's actually super good in an Oscar traditional romantic drama like ASIB how far she would be able to take it. Perry already proved he could surprise in the right role with the right guiding hand (Gone Girl) so if Backseat is great or well received it will all depend on which of its actors pop.

"I didn't know they had that in them" is one of the mainstays of Oscar stories... so I'd argue people not taking actors seriously (in this case you with these two celebrities) actually can help an Oscar campaign.

July 8, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterNATHANIEL R

YES Ethan Hawke and Paul Schrader!

I hope A Star Is Born is as good as I expect it will be.

July 8, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterSuzanne

Have you personally heard any buzz on A Star Is Born? I can see it being a hit for sure, although my expectations are low. (Lady Gaga looked weak in the trailer.) I also just watched the Barbra Streisand version for the first time ever and ... oof. What a turkey that was.

What made you cool off on Beale Street?

Also, the Supporting Actress link on each individual prediction page leads to a dead end. Just FYI.

July 8, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterAdam

I'm certainly high on GaGa this is her "Whitney" moment.

July 8, 2018 | Unregistered Commentermarkgordonuk

Suzanne: Its completely gross that Schrader is at 0 noms, when, realistically, he should be at anywhere from 2-8 nominations. At the very least Taxi Driver and Raging Bull should have happened, but there's also Blue Collar, Hardcore, American Gigolo, The Mosquito Coast, The Last Temptation of Christ and Affliction. So, yeah, they had PLENTY of chances to give out a makeup nod or two that wouldn't have looked TOO suspicious. They didn't.

July 8, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterVolvagia

Colin Powell is not a seven foot giant. And despite being a black his complexion is lighter than yours.

@Nathaniel R

July 8, 2018 | Unregistered Commenter/3rtful

Mystified at the Emily Blunt prediction honestly (I truly cannot imagine that happening) but I suppose we’ll see

July 8, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterC

There's something about the sure-thinged-ness of Sam Elliott that makes me reasonably confident in Gaga. Like, they won't nominate only the men and snub the titular Star. (Unless she is bad, of course.)

July 8, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterMike in Canada

The Best Supporting Actress category includes the two Queens Elizabeth II from The Crown: Foy and Cole.
I hope Glenn Close is nominated and wins. If she doesn't, we'll have to look forward to Sunset Boulevard (if it is actually made as they promise).
And, of course, if the role is interesting and she's good in it, why not finally give Amy Adams an Oscar?
Best Actress: fingers crossed for Toni Collette and Saoirse Ronan.
Best Supporting Actor: Sam Elliott's nomination would be a career recognition (the same with Van Dyke): similar to Don Ameche, James Coburn, Bruce Dern and Robert Forster, among others. It did not work for Kurt Russell, though.

July 8, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterMarcos

I could see A Star is Born for Globe nominations, because they love that kind of fawning, but Oscar seems far fetched for acting categories. Maybe best song or something. I also think it’s going to be relatively easy for a late year contender to overtake Glenn, we just don’t know yet who that might be.

July 8, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterJono

/3rtful -- i think you're trying to troll me with that comment but I'm not sure how as I don't know anything about Tyler OR Powell's height. and also fail to see the relevance of your feelings about Colin Powell in terms of what Oscar voters might feel if they like that particular movie. So hmmm. Trolling only succeeds, I think, when the target understands what the troll is getting at.

Volvagia -- it's mystifying with Schrader. It really is.

Mike -- great point and one that i hadn't even used as my internal reasoning as to why to predict her.

Jono -- i fear that for Glenn too. I'd love to see her win and Oscar but I also haven't seen most of these performances yet so it's too soon to say if she deserves it this year. Maybe someone will be so spectacular that we don't feel bad about Glenn losing (if that happens)

July 8, 2018 | Registered CommenterNATHANIEL R

PFEIFFER for Where is Kyra? Watched it last night an AMAZING OSCAR WORTHY PERFORMANCE I forgot I was even watching Michelle Pfeiffer :)

July 8, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterMA


Thank you fro setting up my movie commitments in the year to come.

By now, you should be used to /3rtful knowing everything. You respond tto him as I do... he is a real ------ case.

July 8, 2018 | Unregistered Commenterrdf

It wasn't a troll it's a real observation on how Perry is a miscast in the role from his physicality alone.

July 8, 2018 | Unregistered Commenter/3rtful

There's another Animated film that was just released: White Fang.

July 8, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterMarcos

I will be absolutely thrilled if Ethan Hawks, Toni Collette and Alex Wolff get recognized.

July 8, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterRod

Streisand's version of ASIB is the worst of the lot compared to Garland's and Gaynor's. Her self-involved kind of acting makes me cringe every time she's onscreen. Besides, who would believe her to be a rock star? I'm not a fan of Gaga but I figure her version has to be godawful to be inferior to Streisand's film.

July 8, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterPete

I hope


are remember till the end of the year

Love every one of them!! Oustanding work of everyone one of them!

July 9, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterJon

Of course, despite Bab's A STAR IS BORN really working, it did well with Oscar and won a song Oscar (which can still be hard if your movie isn't well liked). So clearly it had fans. It won, like, four Golden Globes as well. NOT SO FUN FACT - Barbra's win the song from A STAR IS BORN features one of the worst nomination intros ever from Neil Diamond. It's truly appalling and you couldn't dare of getting away with such favoritism today.

Some thoughts: Oscar Isaac would be strange as Anthony Quinn won for also playing Gauguin in a Van Gogh biopic (LUST FOR LIFE). I only know this off the top of my head because I was writing an article these last couple of days about Gauguin in cinema (Donald Sutherland also portrayed him to less success).

It'd feel really weird watching Amy Adams win a supporting Oscar now. It feels like she's passed that, just like Julianne Moore was and Glenn Close/Annette Bening are.

I agree about Hawke become a 'thing'. I hope Collette has the same momentum. Shame them into nominating her as long as it happens!

The conversation about BLACKKKLANSMAN is going to be so strange. I am curious what black audiences are going to feel about this film? The very few who have and written about it (like Miriam Bale) weren't pleased. As I watched it I couldn't help but feel it was movie made for white audiences, which is undoubtedly help it in some ways, but potentially trip it up in others. I felt uncomfortable watching Spike Lee sap himself of anger and instead make broad jokes. How will people with (to quote the movie) "more skin in the game" take it?

I'm not a fan of THE BROKEN CIRCLE BREAKDOWN, which gives me pause about BEAUTIFUL BOY.

BLACK PANTHER for visual effects and A QUIET PLACE for sound are two 'obvious' choices that I'm not on board with.

I am more than happy with Viola Davis overtaking Meryl as the new default nominee if just for the chance to see some genre titles like WIDOWS nominated based on her class.

July 9, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterGlenn Dunks

It was Schnable’s second and third film that got Oscar nods. His first film was Basquiat

July 9, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterBD (the real one)

This might be petty of me as I have not yet seen gaga's performance, but I'd hate for her to get in over real actresses.

July 9, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterNnnnvg

Chalamet for the win!

July 9, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterJoseph

Any particular reason you’re not feeling Sorry To Bother You? I haven’t hadn’t a chance to see it yet since it hasn’t reached my area, but I’ve heard nothing but raves and it had a healthy opening box office in limited release. It seems a little off the wall, but with a younger, more diverse Academy membership, I see no reason it couldn’t break through. The fact that it looks like it could play as Comedy at the GGs could also help

July 9, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterAndy

Yes, Toni Collette. C'mon, she deserves some total Oscar love.

I saw Lady GaGa on American Horror Story and And same with that awful Tyler Perry, who has gifted the cinematic world so much garbage.

July 9, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterRob

Andy -- honestly it's the dubbed in voices in the trailer making me think it'll play like more of a pure comedy than anything that Oscar would perceive as substantive. I used to think one of Orange is the New Black's best jokes was when Black Cindy, Poussey, and Taystee would speak in "white" voices... but when it is dubbed voices it just, i dont know. It feels like outrageous comedy (i.e. silly) rather than dramedy (what Oscar likes) but perhaps i'll change my mind when i see it.

July 9, 2018 | Registered CommenterNATHANIEL R

I'm with you on Gaga, Nathaniel. Recently saw the trailer on the big screen for the first time and it's a powerful package. Cooper has loads of goodwill behind him and Gaga's voice will *move* people, whether or not the acting is A+. She's a safe bet for the Globe, "breakthrough" prizes and a complementary Best Song bid.

I might be getting carried away (sight unseen) but I would almost say she can win.

July 9, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterHayden

Viola has no chance with that script. Stop with the build-up so there’s unnecessary outcry...
What happened to all the Mary, Queen Of Scots hype?

July 10, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterTOM

TOM, period dramas like that aren't really in vogue at the moment. Darkest Hour did well, but that was a male biopic of a political icon.

July 11, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterGlenn Dunks

I'm just hoping for a year where both Mike Leigh and Spike Lee are nominated in the same category, and this might be the year!

July 11, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterTravis C

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