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« It's Her Time, Glenn Close Will Not Be Ignored | Main | Golden Globe Host Watch: "Please Give Us Five Stars!" »
Monday
Jan072019

Fresh Globe-to-Oscar Stats

by Abe Fried-Tanzer

A collection of quick interesting stats for you given that the 76th annual Golden Globe ceremony is now part of history.

• This is only the second time in documented Globes history that the winner of Best Motion Picture –Drama (Bohemian Rhapsody) didn't have a corresponding Best Director (Bryan Singer) nomination. In 1992, Scent of a Woman took the top award at the Globes, but Martin Brest wasn't nominated in Director (though he did go on to an Oscar nomination!). Clint Eastwood collected the Best Director prize at the Globes instead for Unforgiven before that film went on to win both Director and Picture at the Oscars. If history literally repeated itself here, Bryan Singer would be nominated for an Oscar (!!!) and Roma would be our eventual Oscar winner for Best Picture and Director.

More after the jump...

• While Moonlight and 12 Years a Slave took home just the Best Motion Picture – Drama award in their respective years, you have to go all the way back to 1955 to find a movie, like Bohemian Rhapsody, with fewer than three nominations that won Picture. East of Eden won both Best Motion Picture – Drama and a special posthumous acting prize for James Dean but it ended up missing a nomination for Best Picture at the Oscars. The last film to win Best Motion Picture – Drama and not end up with a corresponding Oscar Best Picture nod was The Cardinal in 1963.

• Alfonso Cuarón is the fourth director to win for a film classified at the Globes as foreign language, following Julian Schnabel for The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, Ang Lee for Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon, and Richard Attenborough for Gandhi. All three went on to be nominated for the Best Director Oscar, with Attenborough winning. Ang Lee’s film was the only one of those eligible in Oscar's Best Foreign Film category, and it won. What this means? Well, we already all suspect that Roma has the Foreign Film Oscar in the bag so not much.

 

• Only once before in history (since the inception of the Screen Actors Guild Award in 1994) has an actress who took home the Oscar for Best Supporting Actress won without a SAG nomination, which is the situation in which Regina King finds herself in this year for If Beale Street Could Talk. What this means for Oscar night? Well, Marcia Gay Harden (the only previous example) didn’t have a Golden Globe bid for Pollock either in 2000 either, so Regina King has a leg up on her and a great shot on Oscar night.

• Christian Bale made mention of his tendency to say things he shouldn’t in his acceptance speech for Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical. Only three times since the SAG Awards began in 1994 has a winner of this prize who was also nominated by SAG been snubbed by Oscar – Jim Carrey for Man on the Moon, Richard Gere for Chicago, and, last year, James Franco for The Disaster Artist when accusations about past inappropriate behavior surfaced before Oscar nominations were revealed. (What this means for Oscar? Probably not much. Bale, who is already an Oscar winner unlike those men, doesn't seem like he'll be a fourth addition of this small group.)

• Olivia Colman has no reason not to be confident in her chances for The Favourite. Only one Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical winner who was also cited by SAG didn’t end up earning an Oscar nomination, and that was Jamie Lee Curtis for True Lies, who was placed in SAG’s supporting race in the first year of its awards.

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse should feel good about its Oscar chances. Since the inception of the Best Animated Feature category at the Globes in 2006, all but one winner – The Adventures of Tintin – have gone on to earn an Oscar nomination after the Globes. All but two others (Cars and How to Train Your Dragon 2) have taken home the actual Oscar.

Any other trivia or stats you thought of last night at home? 


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Reader Comments (25)

Quick! Let's make a ringtone of Nicole saying Bohemian Rhapsody and send it to Nathaniel.

January 7, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterPeggy Sue

It looks like Bohemian Rhapsody is going to be embraced by the industry as well. It was nominated for an Eddie (Black Panther wasn't) and an Art Directors Guild award (Green Book and BlacKkKlansman weren't) this morning. A Best Picture nomination is starting to feel inevitable.

January 7, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterSuzanne

Supporting Actress - Regina King missing at SAG feels so off... her only precedent is Marcia Gay Harden who was regarded as a "late bloomer" (ie. most people hadn't seen her performance and there was zero buzz until that surprise Oscar nomination).

King is almost the reverse of that - a frontrunner from the start of the season who has been ignored by a key voting body!

1) Is there an actual reason why she missed (eg. some logistical screener mess resulted in voters not watching her?)
2) At this point, neither Stone or Weisz have any narrative to take the win (vote-split plus both previous winners not yet "overdue" a second)
3) Adams is in a divisive film, with many arguing she has "nothing to do" and others proclaiming her a standout
3) Past these 4 probable nominees, who will actually grab that final slot? Foy, Robbie and Blunt all seemed like place-holders

Basically, either Regina King is going to make history OR our "Marcia Gay Harden" is hiding in plain sight...

January 7, 2019 | Unregistered Commenterkermit_the_frog

Another "non-Globe-trivia" thing... while trying to find a BAFTA eligibility list earlier, it came to my attention that The Wife qualifies for "Best British Film" consideration.

So the "home field patriotism" advantage we all assumed Olivia would have? Some of that may still be channelled Glenn's way...

Olivia is a BAFTA TV regular and national treasure (2 acting wins, plus a handful of comedy wins and citations too), though I understand that the voters for Film and TV are now largely separate bodies with their own members (and a large overlap?) Is this correct?

January 7, 2019 | Unregistered Commenterkermit_the_frog

How about someone in Shoplifters?

January 7, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterMe

I feel like every entry in the Bohemian Rhapsody/Green Book pile-on should include a note about how wonderful and deserving The Favourite is. Ditto conversations about whether Roma is overrated or A Star is Born is a BP threat.

Talk about a movie that's gasping for oxygen in this awards cycle (even though it should have our undivided attention).

January 7, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterHayden

Kermit the Frog, the BAFTA film and TV awards are too very different beasts. The BAFTA membership is large and wide and incorporates everyone from Judi Dench to the set dressers on soap operas. But the TV awards are voted on by a small independently chosen panel only. Which explains the idiosyncratic television choices (The Night Manager was mostly snubbed, for example).

Everyone votes on the film side. Colman is loved in the UK though so I think it's likely (in an Imelda Staunton or Carey Mulligan kind of way). However, in recent years BAFTA have consciously moved away from awarding Brits. Bottom line is they think Colman is in it to win it, they'll vote for her. And if Glenn was always going to win it, she'll do it. Close only has one previous BAFTA nom so who knows?

January 7, 2019 | Unregistered Commenterevangelina

Regina King's miss at SAG immediately felt like an anomaly to me. Just some quirky oversight. Of course, SAG is not the body you want ignoring you if you're an Oscar hopeful, but I feel it'll all be made up for by the fact that the rest of awards season has been an almost start-to-finish coronation run. I think she takes the statue.

I looked over the last few decades of the Globes Best Actress awards and was shocked at how predictive it's been. I believe in the last 25 years or so only Frances McDormand (for Fargo) and Halle Berry have missed a Globes win and got the Oscar. And it usually goes to the Drama winner. Close and Colman should both be feeling pretty good right now.

January 7, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterBruno

Despite the weirdness with the lack of a SAG nod, I still think King has this. She's really dominated the critics awards, except for a few places that put Coleman in the supporting category. She's clearly well liked. The Globe only improves her chances.

January 7, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterJJM

Michael Caine won Best Actor (Comedy/Musical) for "Little Voice" in 1998 and that didn't translate into an Oscar nomination

January 7, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterFeliciano

Evangelina - thank you so much for confirming what I already suspected about BAFTA TV being a panel process for nominations... their line-ups are pretty impeccable and always include little-seen and under-rewarded work. Plus a real commitment to championing diversity over the past 10 years...

Basically, they put the Emmy Awards to shame...

January 7, 2019 | Unregistered Commenterkermit_the_frog

@Feliciano - well, he was referring to Best Actress in a Musical/Comedy winners, and only those who also had SAG nominations. Caine didn't receive a corresponding SAG nomination for Little Voices, so the stat stands as is.

Interestingly enough, re: Close, her only BAFTA nomination to-date is for one of her very few acclaimed film performances *not* nominated for a Golden Globe: Dangerous Liaisons—although I think that can be explained by its late year (December) release date.

January 7, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterMareko

@kermit: the number of times The Green Book winners referred to Linda Cardellini as the heart and soul of the film in their acceptance speeches I am betting she will be the 5th nominee come Oscar nominations morning

January 7, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterRami

SAG voters only received the If Beale Street Could Talk screeners in the last couple days of voting. My friend was a voter this year and didn’t have time to watch it because it arrived so late. I imagine that’s the reason why Regina King wasn’t nominated... seeing as how she’s not an A-list Hollywood Star (yet) that voters would just automatically check mark without seeing her film.

January 7, 2019 | Unregistered Commenter24fanatic

24fanatic, I assumed it was a late screener issue because no other explanation makes any since, especially considering she virtually swept the critics prizes and has been nominated for every single other thing.

January 7, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterTroy H.

That JLC snub still hurts today,was it a case of category confusion and if placed Lead or Supporting where do you feel she belonged Nat or anyone else,was she a 6th spotter.

January 7, 2019 | Unregistered Commentermarkgordonuk

Someone really dropped the ball on those Beale SAG screeners then. That's unfortunate for King, and fortunate for... Amy Adams?

January 7, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterBruno

@Rami - I also think Cardellini has an excellent chance at an Oscar nom in supporting. If Green Book gets noms for picture, director, screenplay, actor, supporting actor and editing, that's enough across the board support to push another acting nom into the mix.

I'm not convinced Foy is a given.

January 7, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterSan FranCinema

@Rami - I'm slotting Cardellini in at #5 on my supporting actress predix. Green Book stands to have at least 6 nominations (pic, director, actor, supporting actor, screenplay, editing), which is enough momentum to push Cardellini into a nomination. I'm not at all convinced Foy is in.

January 7, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterSan FranCinema

I’ve liked Regina since 227 and especially since her scene-stealing in POETIC JUSTICE and JERRY MAGUIRE, but her texting during Glenn’s magnificent speech has me warming to the idea of Amy Adams winning for (in my opinion, of course) a fairly standard performance in the very worst movie of the year.

January 7, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterRyan Crowe

So remember all of the posts saying they wish the Oscars still only has 5 nominees for best picture? Last night's results reminded us that they are less likely to choose something like The Favourite and more likely to choose something like Bohemian Rhapsody. Be happy for this change!

January 8, 2019 | Unregistered Commenterkin

Still rooting for an Amy Adams win!

January 8, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterFR

Yeah based on what?^^

January 8, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterMe

Christian Bale and Olivia Colman, the two acting winners in the musical/comedy categories were born on the same day (January 30th, 1974).

January 8, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterJoe

Bohemian Rhapsody seems to be the 1st Best Picture Drama without Director & Screenplay nominations !

January 9, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterCharlie

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