Sunday
Oct202019
Oscar Chart Updates
Sunday, October 20, 2019 at 8:33PM Every category has been slightly revised now that we've seen Irishman, The Two Popes, and more and the buzz on Bombshell is out.
UPDATED CHARTS
INDEX | PICTURE | DIRECTOR
ACTRESS | ACTOR | SUPP' ACTRESS | SUPP' ACTOR |
SCREENPLAYS | VISUAL | SOUND |
ANIMATED & DOCUMENTARY | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
tagged Oscars (19), Punditry
Oscars (19), Punditry
Reader Comments (43)
What I desire:
BEST PICTURE: Parasite - The Lighthouse - Pain & Glory - Jojo Rabbit - Marriage Story - OUATIH - The Irishman - The Farewell - Joker - Little women
BEST DIRECTING - Bong joon-ho - Scorsese - Almodóvar - Taika Waititi - Lulu Wang / Greta Gerwig / Todd Phillips / Robert Eggers
ACTRESS: Scarjo - Renée - Theron - Ronan - Awkwafina / Woodard
S. ACTRESS: ScarJo - Margot - J-Lo - Zhao - Octavia
ACTOR: Driver - Phoenix - Banderas - De Niro - Pattinson
S. ACTOR: Pacino - Pesci - Dafoe - Pitt - Hanks / Snipes
O.SCREENPLAY: Parasite - Pain & Glory - OUATIH - The Lighthouse - Marriage Story
A. SCREENPLAY: Jojo Rabbit - The Irishman - Little Women - The Farewell - Ford vs Ferrari
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM: I lost my body - HTTYD Hidden World - The Magnificient Cake! - Klaus - Toy Story 4
INTERNATIONAL FILM: Monos - Parasite - Pain & Glory - Corpus Christi - Atlantique
From the Parasite prediction: "We've yet to hear from one person who didn't rave about this movie"
Cue Nick Davis!
I don't buy Mendes making it. He didn't make it for Road to Perdition in 2002 (when you can't muscle past Gangs of New York...). Unless 1917 is a major surprise, I can't see how he makes it this year.
Theron has international competition for best in show
Where is The Last Black Man In San Francisco?
No Marriage Story in Score?!
I stand with Nick Davis on Parasite. It’s an admirable achievement, but this is the first time I’ve truly been disturbed by the discourse around a movie. To be clear, I’m not surprised people love it; I just find the constant reminder that no one dislikes it vaguely threatening in its frequency. Are we going to tar and feather any dissenters?
I’d also love to know how many Parasite fans have seen Chabrol’s La Cérémonie. I wasn’t surprised to find out it’s one of the film’s biggest influences. It’s clear almost immediately after the Parks are introduced.
Thanks for the update Nat,
Is it me or does it feel a little less nailed down than most years at this point? I'm beginning to think that the precursers are going to shift the race in surprising ways.
That lock next to Zellweger is so cute. Reminds me of the one you placed next to Banchett during the Blue Jasmine season.
“Disturbed” isn’t quite the word, “irked” rather.
F*ck yo charts
Actress : Renee, Charlize, Scarlett, Lupita, Ronan
Actor : Phoenix, Driver, DiCaprio, Banderas, Pryce
Supporting actress: Margot, Laura, Jennifer, Annette, Maggie
Supporting actor: Pitt, Pacino, Hopkins, Pesci, Dafoe
/3rtful
Oh no.
/3rtful
If considering the top tier choices, oh yes.
Not sure why Robbie is at the top of the list for Bombshell. She'll get in for something this year but over Dern? I'd call Laura first-among-equals in the "safe bet" category.
It gets me thinking about the spiritual connection between actor, Oscar and role. I'm not sure I'd want an Oscar statuette that kind of symbolizes the fallout from Roger Ailes' time at Fox News. Of course it's an important story and maybe Bombshell was fun to make. But as conversation pieces go it's not exactly "the Oscar I won for Terms of Endearment."
Point being, some Oscars are imbued with ickier subject matter than others!
Best Picture: JOJO RABBIT, THE IRISHMAN, ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD, MARRIAGE STORY, PARASITE, 1917, A BEAUTIFUL DAY IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD, FORD V. FERRARI, BOMBSHELL and WAVES or THE FAREWELL (I think A24 will go for WAVES since it's the only "black" movie that can contend for Best Picture this year and THE FAREWELL has to face the huge PARASITE for the Asian movie seat)
Best Director: Scorsese, Tarantino, Bong Joon-ho, Waititi, Mendes or Baumbach or Heller
Best Actor: Driver, MARRIAGE STORY; Phoenix, JOKER; Banderas, DOLOR Y GLORIA; Pryce, THE TWO POPES; and Bale, FORD V. FERRARI
Best Actress: Zellweger, JUDY; Johansson, MARRIAGE STORY; Theron, BOMBSHELL; Woodard, CLEMENCY (Neon might have a sh*ty campaign for her, but she's a respected veteran and sure to know a lot of Academy members); and Awkwafina (THE FAREWELL) or Lupita (US)
Best Supporting Actor: Pitt, OUATIHOLLYWOOD; Hanks, A BEAUTIFUL DAY IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD; Pacio, THE IRISHMAN; Pesci, THE IRISHMAN; and K. Brown or Harrison Jr. (WAVES)
Best Supporting Actress: Dern, MARRIAGE STORY; Zhao, THE FAREWELL (the diversity nominee here); Johansson, JOJO RABBIT; Robbie, BOMBSHELL (afraid of vote splitting with OUATIHOLLYWOOD); and Pugh (LITTLE WOMEN) or Bates (RICHARD JEWELL)
Best Original Screenplay: MARRIAGE STORY; OUATIHOLLYWOOD; THE FAREWELL; PARASITE; WAVES or BOMBSHELL (if one of these 2 misses Best Picture, it will get a nom here I would say)
Best Adapted Screenplay: JOJO RABBIT, THE IRISHMAN, A BEAUTIFUL DAY IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD, LITTLE WOMEN and RICHARD JEWELL
I rarely hear anyone say this, but I wish the Globes would split the supporting categories into Drama and Comedy/Musical. Those races narrow too quickly!
Don't get me started on the TV "supporting" categories but in terms of film: Wouldn't it be fun to get more performers on the board, early on?
One black actor out of 20 possible nominees.
Argh---was trying to avoid any Parasite spoilers, but the Chabrol mention tells me exactly what I'm in for. (It's a movie more should see--and it's got Isabelle Huppert!)
argh - Sorry! Don’t know why that didn’t occur to me. If it helps my case, a) Bong himself brings it up in multiple interviews & b) the movie is far loopier / twistier than you’ll able to glean from that reference.
Given the competition in Best Actor, it seems very early to put that "lock" next to Phoenix's name, especially if there's such minimal support for the movie.
It's a very male-dominated Best Picture year, and only two of your Best Actor nominees are in your predicted Best Picture nominees. That's not going to happen. DeNiro and DiCaprio have better chances than that.
The conversations about these comic book movies have become to transparently political.
One year people are bashing Black Panther as a politically correct quota nominee for Best Picture, average at best. The next they’re calling Joker an unmitigated masterpiece.
One year (different) people are calling Black Panther urgent and game-changing popular cinema, about which no praise is too excessive. The next they’re calling Joker a hacky, dangerous sideshow.
Sick of think pieces. Just write the whole genre off. Scorsese and Coppola are right.
This is starting to look very #oscarssowhite. I think you may be underestimating the chances of Just Mercy or Harriet. They may not have wowed critically (although both still have positive reviews overall) but one or both could still be a hit with audiences, boosting their profiles.
I'm also still predicting Awkwafina and Zhao as nominees from The Farewell, although the former is a shaky 5th.
Actor
De Niro
Driver
Banderas
Pryce
Phoenix
Actress
Woodard
Theron
Zellweger
Johansson
Awkwafina
S actor
Hopkins
Pacino
Pitt
Alda
Hanks
S actress
Kidman
Robbie
Dern
Shuzhen
Pugh
I think Little Women is either happening or it’s not. Like Pugh isn’t getting in if Ronan isn’t getting in.
For what it’s worth, I think they both will.
Big Snub of the season Lopez?
@Sawyer
That's why I think they are going for WAVES in Best Picture. This way they will have a movie about a black family, plus Asian movie (PARASITE) and a female empowerment movie (BOMBSHELL and I would say MARRIAGE STORY to a certain point).
The AMPAS won't risk another #OscarSoWhite and I really believe Woodward, Lupita, Awkwafina, Zhao, K. Brown or Kelvin Harrison Jr. have better chances than most people are predicting because of the "we need diversity vote".
FWIW, I have trouble buying both Marriage Story and Bombshell, which are written and directed by men, as female empowerment stories. I could almost more easily buy A Beautiful Day... since it's a Marielle Heller film.
I think a movie like Ford v. Ferrari (are people really going to be passionate about this with so many other manly men's titles?) could easily be pushed out for The Farewell or Little Women. But I also agree that Waves could get in, and a lot of critics who've seen it are high on Queen and Slim as well.
@Suzanne
Just because I'm a man it doesn't mean I can't be a feminist and the same might be applied to MARRIAGE STORY and BOMBSHELL's directors. More important than a directors genitals are the narratives they brought to the big screen.
As for THE FAREWELL (which I loved) and WAVES, it's a pity but I doubt A24 could get both in for Best Picture. Love most A24 movies, but it's still far from a giant campaigner (sadly)
Are people going to act perplexed when Ford vs. Ferrari is a massive hit with audiences and Oscar? It’s a big-budget entertainment movie/period piece with giant stars. Perfect counterprogramming to some of the dour stuff studios are dumping around the holidays. And the reviews are excellent!
I’m surprised that 1917 isn’t listed in any of the tiers for Original Score. I know we haven’t seen it yet, but I think the movie’s potential to be a big player in the race and Thomas Newman’s track record means it will at least be a contender.
Hmmm.... I think I’ve left somebody out....
Best Actress:
- Cynthia Erivo, “Harriet”
- Lupita Nyong’o, “Us”
- Awkwafina, “The Farewell”
- Alfre Woodard, “Clemency”
- Gugu Mbatha-Raw, “Fast Color”
Best Actor:
- Daniel Kaluuya, “Queen and Slim”
- Antonio Banderas, “Pain and Glory”
- Jimmie Fails, “The Last Black Man in San Francisco”
- Samuel L. Jackson, “The Banker”
- Choi Woo-sik, “Parasite”
Best Supporting Actress:
- Zhao Shuzen, “The Farewell”
- Ana de Armas, “Knives Out”
- Shahadi Wright Joseph, “Us”
- Taylor Russell, “Waves”
- Lorraine Touissant, “Fast Color”
Best Supporting Actor:
- Taika Waititi, “Jojo Rabbit”
- Clarke Peters, “Harriet”
- Sterling K. Brown, “Waves”
- Jonathan Majors, “The Last Black Man in San Francisco”
- Lakeith Stanfield, “Knives Out”
Best Director:
- Marielle Heller, “A Beautiful Day in the Neighbourhood”
- Kasi Lemmons, “Harriet”
- Celine Sciamma, “Portrait of a Lady on Fire”
- Julia Hart, “Fast Color”
- Alice Winocour, “Proxima”
Oh, I know who I forgot:
Best Director: Lulu Wang, “The Farewell”
adri: Hehehehaahahahahahaha! Oh, that's rich. Oscar's So White shouldn't have even been ALLOWED to be a thing, but "Oscar's No White" (as cool as that might be to imagine) is NEVER going to happen.
I think you are seriously underestimating Joker. I see as an easily best picture nominee.
I love when people list Spaniards as people of color because of their names. Now Antonio Banderas is not white, lol
Never underestimate a Streep nomination. She'll get in for Supporting Actress.
Lopez deserved to be snubbed. What an embarrassment.
Volvagia - That’s the joke.
Ed - I wasn't questioning your personal politics or anything about you personally. I was commenting on the Oscar race in general. I believe there are other voters like I and those voters may have a tough time swallowing the idea that those movies are "female empowerment" movies. They may look to something different to vote for in the race.
I love Adam Baumbach, he's one of my very favorite filmmakers. But from what I've heard about Marriage Story, it's based on his experience, and he identifies with the Driver character. Bombshell is a comedy that wouldn't have been made if it weren't about FOX News - it's by the director of Game Change and the writer of The Big Short. My opinion, for what it's worth.
A filmmaker's gender, just like a filmmaker's race, ethnicity, or sexuality, is part of that filmmaker's lived experience. It will always influence the type of narratives that filmmaker brings to the screen.
I mean this argument has been made over and over but—The parity issues with Oscar nominations reflect the Hollywood pipeline. Decisions about how diverse the 2021 and 2022 races will be, are being made right now.
So you greenlight diverse projects. Assign diverse talent to the projects. Then the projects have to please critics (or put more, crassly "be good"). Then they have to get adequate distribution and find audiences.
I'm sure, for example, Hollywood would have loved it if Harriet turned out to be a directorial triumph. I'm sure that's what everyone was thinking when they got that off the ground with Lemmons, Erivo, etc. Unfortunately that doesn't seem to have panned out in the product. That doesn't invalidate the very good intentions that animated it, but it shouldn't put Lemmons on a list of Best Director contenders. Nobody's calling for a quota system.
So by the time the Academy votes on nominations they're hemmed in by the year Hollywood "gave" them, based on decisions executives made 1-2 years ago. Most AMPAS members don't have the power to do anything about it. So it feels weird to lay the blame at the feet of the Academy every year when Oscar nominations are just a symptom of the problem.
Suzanne, are you sure you love Baumbach when you just got his name wrong?
Yeah, Gustavo, I had Adam Driver on the brain (obviously).
Two years ago, I was praising The Meyerowitz Stories all over this site. It was my #4 movie of the year. I'm not sure most of the posters here ever watched it, because it got no Oscar buzz.
I don't think Erivo will make it. The movie is borderline terrible, and her previous comments about African Americans haven't endeared her to many.
Also I think Parasite is gonna go bigger than expected. Potentially even an acting nomination.