Oscar Punditry: Who Will Be Our Surprise Acting Nominee and Who Could Still Be Snubbed?

By: Christopher James

Kristen Stewart looking for where her SAG nomination went.The SAG Nominations sure threw a lot of people’s Oscar predictions upside down. One can always expect SAG to throw in a major curveball or two (call it the Sarah Silverman in I Smile Back effect). However, few could’ve predicted that former frontrunner Kristen Stewart would be snubbed for her role as Princess Diana in Spencer. It was almost as surprising to see Aunjanue Ellis miss for King Richard, especially when the movie made it into Outstanding Cast!

As surprising as it all was, we now have a lot of answers (rather than guesswork) as to who the major players are in Oscar's acting races since the Globes have already announced their winners, the Critics Choice nominations have long been out, and we've also seen the BAFTA longlist. We can use math and past Oscar patterns with these precursors to determine who the acting nominees might be this year...

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One For Them, One For Me: M. Night Shyamalan's "The Sixth Sense" and "Stuart Little"

A New Series by Christopher James

Take bets: Who did M. Night Shyamalan find it was easier to write for - a human child or a mouse child voiced by a 38-year-old man?

Do one for them; do one for you. If you can still do projects for yourself, you can keep your soul.
— Martin Scorsese: A Journey

Even from the get go, M. Night Shyamalan’s career was idiosyncratic. He went from Oscar nominated wunderkind to punchline all within the span of less than ten years. With his most recent movie, Old, Shyamalan seems to have figured out a way to own his poor reviews. At a time where the definition of “camp” is constantly argued, Old feels like pure, grade A camp. He’s also regained a lot of his box office cred with Split and Glass, which connected to one of his earliest films, Unbreakable. 

In 1999, Shyamalan earned tons of accolades, including Best Director and Original Screenplay Oscar nominations, for his smash hit, The Sixth Sense. At that point, Shyamalan had only directed two movies, a personal indie called Praying with Anger that he starred in and a movie called Wide Awake that stars Rosie O’Donnell as a baseball fanatic nun. Few things could’ve prepared people for The Sixth Sense’s level of success. However, it wasn’t the only financial hit of the year for Shyamalan. He had done uncredited rewrites on movies like She’s All That, so he wasn’t above doing “one for them” to earn some money. However, he was credited as the writer of the Visual Effects nominated children’s film Stuart Little.

Is there anything that connects The Sixth Sense and Stuart Little together, other than coming from the mind of the same writer? Let’s take a look (age old spoilers ahead)...

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Who is now in the lead for Best Actress?

by Nathaniel R and Team Experience!

The morning after and we're still reeling from the SAG nominations. But in particular what it's done to presumptions about the Best Actress category. I've updated the Oscar chart but after a brief flirtation with Nicole Kidman as #1, I suddenly felt the urge to give that spot to Olivia Colman in The Lost Daughter. Is this insane? Not exactly though it is probably the common pundit psychosis of "overthinking it". My pundit brain began imagining that all the biopic ladies are getting in each other's way with their elaborate makeovers and mimicry (or lack thereof) and through the chaos emerges the true stealth battle of all along: superstar Lady Gaga vs revered thespian Olivia Colman.

Lady Gaga is also playing a real person, like the biopic ladies, but Patrizia Reggiani isn't a famous celebrity being recreated by another famous celebrity as is the usual draw of these things. So the traditional biopic advantage (aka default love for "what a transformation!") doesn't quite apply in Gaga's case. In the end given Olivia Colman mania and Gaga's film having more detractors, is it so outlandish to presume a quick second win could very well happen. So I polled the team, hoping that a crystal clear hive mind pundit choice would emerge. Whoops! Though there is a hesistant "consensus choice" opinions are truly all over the place.

Here's how the team responded to the big question of the moment...

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Oscar Trivia: Three Nominated Actresses

By Ben Miller

I'm sure you've already read Nathaniel's awesome breakdown of the films with double acting nominations.  I love that specific type of Oscar trivia.  Along those same lines, what if all three West Side Story's actresses all end up nominated?  How many times has a film nominated three actresses from the same film?  Not very often.  But that wasn't always the case.

The Supporting categories were added in 1936 and it only took three years for the first three-actress set of nominees.  Both Vivien Leigh and Hattie McDaniel won Oscars, while Olivia de Havilland earned a nomination for Gone with the Wind. That 1939 triple set off a trend...

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Team Experience SAG Reactions: Happy Thoughts, Outrageous Snubs, and Table-Lust

by Nathaniel R

After the SAG nominations I polled the team on six questions about the SAG nominations. One of them gets its own post (being a big topic we'll be discussing for some time still). But here are the general reactions to the other five questions from love to loathing to which OUTSTANDING CAST table we'd like to sit at...

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