Oscar Volleys: Three still standing for Best Picture. Who wins tonight?

The penultimate Oscar Volley. This morning, Abe Friedtanzer, Eric Blume, and Nathaniel R discuss the category at the top of the Academy mountain.

NATHANIEL: "BEST PICTURE!" He shouts with horror, as Team Experience reaches the final day of Oscar season with this category not yet volleyed. By now readers have had a chance to see all of our Predictions, and my own multiverse grappling with what might play out tonight  along with most of my own alternate ballot. Best Picture may well be the last award presented on regular Oscar nights, but it's far from the least. In fact, one could argue you should always BEGIN with Best Picture in your discussions since all awards are affected by it. "Trickle down" is a scam in economic turns, but it's very real at the Oscars where voters have historically voted for their favourite in as many 'lesser' categories as they can justify, often with ridiculous results in terms of the nominations and statuettes in  craft categories. Because we have reached the end of the season, apologies to the filmmakers behind Dune Part Two, Nickel Boys, I'm Still Here, Wicked, A Complete Substance, and even nomination leader Emilia Perez... but I think we can safely say that none of these films have a prayer in hell of taking the top prize.

Consensus, history, and momentum (in various quantities) suggests that only the epic drama The Brutalist, papal thriller Conclave, and raw and reckless indie Anora could win Hollywood's highest prize. BUT preferential balloting always throws a fascinating wrench into the popularity contest that is the Oscar race. Not only do you have to have a lot of votes in the end, but you also have to be ranked highly on ballots you don't win if the race is close. And won't it be? So what say you gentlemen? Who has the advantage and do pundits put too much stock into the "ranking" of preferential ballots.

ABE: Nathaniel, I think you meant A Complete Unknown, not A Complete Substance, but I think that speaks to how that those films aren't going to be major players. I think that, prior to Karla's tweets coming up, Emilia Perez could have competed, and both Wicked and The Substance could have been in play too had they done better on nominations day. But it's down to the three you mentioned...

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Split Decision: “Conclave”

In the Split Decision series, two of our writers face off on an Oscar-nominated movie one loves and the other doesn't. Today, for the last convo of the season, Abe Friedtanzer and Cláudio Alves tackle Conclave...

CLÁUDIO: As the Academy congregates to elect a new Best Picture winner, here, at The Film Experience, we continue our Split Decision convos. However, this debate won't finish with the white smoke of agreement - we never seem to come to such conclusions around these parts. And yet, we persevere in arguing because it's fun. Oh, how I wish Conclave were as fun to watch as it is to reflect upon and talk about. I've fallen in love with the movie those Yaoi girlies saw and keep promoting online, but that's not the movie I watched at TIFF. Edward Berger's too self-serious for such levity, even if this adaptation would have significantly benefited from a surrender to its gossipy pleasures. Give us RuPaul's Drag Race: Vatican with a matching Untucked, not this mirthless drudgery that only elicits laughs because it treats its characters as fodder for shock rather than people. I guess that's enough for an introduction. So let me do like Cardinal Lawrence and wrap up this homily. Or should I emulate Bellini and declare war? Whatever the case, let's go, Abe. Come defend your Catholic fave.

ABE: We're off to a good start with this bevy of puns and references, which should make for a great conversation…

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Split Decision: "Nickel Boys"

In the Split Decision series, two of our writers face off on an Oscar-nominated movie one loves and the other doesn't. Today, Nick Taylor and Nathaniel R discuss Nickel Boys...

NICK: Hello Nathaniel! Hope you’re doing well on this fine day. We’re here, we’re queer, and we’re . . . . I can’t think of another rhyme. What I can think of is Nickel Boys, and how blindsided I was to see it show up in this year’s Best Picture lineup after only showing up in Adapted Screenplay.

I’m happy for the film and RaMell Ross but also confused, and a little annoyed it didn’t make a bigger showing. It’s one of my favorites from this year’s Oscar nominees, and though I get the divisiveness around its first-person POV and how the film actually uses it, I’m a very big fan of what Nickel Boys achieves. That’s been the biggest point of discussion around the film, so maybe it’s best to dive in there? I’m not sure I actually know what you think of Nickel Boys, so lemme hand you the mic. 

NATHANIEL: It's funny how personal feelings are often distracting static when it comes to Oscar expectations, whether you're on the pro or the con side of any given film.  I wasn't the least bit surprised about Nickel Boys crashing Oscar's biggest category after all the breathless raves and its solid if unspectacular showing in the precursors. I'm Still Here was the only Picture nomination that threw me. Sadly,  trust me I didn't want to feel this way, Nickel Boys is my least favourite of the nominated ten...

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Split Decision: "A Complete Unknown"

In the Split Decision series, two of our writers face off on an Oscar-nominated movie one loves and the other doesn't. Today, Eric Blume and Ben Miller discuss A Complete Unknown...

ERIC:  Hey Ben!  It's cool to be able to discuss A Complete Unknown with you.  I didn't love the movie, but I did find it very entertaining until its final reel, and it kind of felt like the kind of sturdy Hollywood films they don't make very often nowadays.  I have lots of thoughts about it, but where do you stand on the movie overall? 

BEN:  This is where we diverge, because outside of some of the supporting performances, I found it dreadful.  I wasn't even entertained.  The entire film felt like an anti-musical biopic, but the more it tried to get away from the formula, the more it leaned into it...

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Split Decision: “Emilia Pérez”

In the Split Decision series, two (or three) of our writers face off on an Oscar-nominated movie one loves and the other doesn't. Today, Nick Taylor, Lynn Lee, and Juan Carlos Ojano discuss Emilia Pérez...

NICK TAYLOR: Hello, Lynn and Juan Carlos! I’m really excited to start our conversation on Emilia Pérez, surely the most divisive of this year’s Oscar contenders. I am entering this talk as our resident hater - I admire the nutty swings this movie is taking, though very little of that admiration extends to how those nutty swings are executed by Jacques Audiard and his collaborators. Still, I wanna hear what makes the movie work for you guys, or at least makes these experiments worthwhile. Lynn, as the person in this conversation who likes Emilia Pérez the most, do you wanna take the baton?

LYNN LEE: Haha, is it even safe to admit you like Emilia Pérez these days?...

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