90th Oscar Nominations: Shape of Water Leads. Darkest Hour and Phantom Thread Surprise.

by Nathaniel R

Guillermo del Toro's beauty & the beast style macabre fantasy romance cold war mystery monstery movie whatsit The Shape of Water led the nominations with 13. (The record for most nominations remains 14 held jointly by Titanic, All About Eve and La La Land). Darkest Hour and Phantom Thread were the overperformers this morning with 6 nominations each even though many pundits (including myself) didn't think they'd quite manage Best Picture nods even though we were predicting them in other categories. For the record I myself had Phantom Thread in 10th place and Darkest Hour in 12th place (oops). As expected Blade Runner 2049 was the most nominated film without a Best Picture nomination (5 nominations. The record in the new era of the expanded Best Picture field remains with Carol which had 6 nominations). And finally The Post ends its whiplashing inducing what-is-happening-with-this-movie precursor adventure by scoring just 2 nods but they're biggies: Picture and Actress. 

TRIVIA AND COMMENTARY FOLLOWS...

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Final Nomination Predictions: Picture / Director / Screenplays

by Nathaniel R

What a final month this has been in the march towards nominations. What were Oscar voters thinking during the week that stretched from the Golden Globes through the BAFTA nominations? You had to freeze the buzz right there and try and make sense of it while also trying to ignore anything that happened thereafter which can't really have an effect. Hell, you can't even really be sure that things that happened during voting truly changed things. Was there time, for instance, for voters to turn on James Franco -- he was added to the long list of men being accused of sexual misconduct that week but the story didn't get loud until the last few days of voting. Did voters even notice the BAFTA nominations and their total rejection of The Post and the minor kisses blown to both Phantom Thread and Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool (two very last minute releases that have mostly struggled in the precursors). How did Oscar voters feel about the Three Billboards frontrunner heat and its subsequent backlash? We shall soon find out. Tuesday morning in point of fact...

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Box Office: The Post Widens, Proud Mary Aims, Paddington Returns

by Nathaniel R

Weekend Box Office (Jan 12th-14th)
W I D E 800+ screens	L I M I T E D excluding prev. wide
1. Jumanji $27 on 3849 screens (cum. $283.1)	1.🔺 I Tonya $3.3 on 517 screens (cum. $10)  REVIEW
2. 🔺  The Post $18.6 on 2819 screens (cum. $23) REVIEW | OSCAR KICK-OFF	2.🔺 Phantom Thread $1.1 on 62 screens (cum. $2.2) HARRIET'S CAMEO
3. 🔺  The Commuter $13.4 on 2892 screens	3. 🔺  Call Me By... $715k on 174 screens (cum. $7.2) REVIEWISH | SCREENPLAY | SEX
4. Insidious: The Last Key $12.1 on 3150 screens (cum. $48.3)	4. Hostiles $276k on 42 screens (cum. $821k)
5. The Greatest Showman $11.8 on 2938 screens (cum. $94.5) REVIEW | ZAC	5.🔺 Condorita: La Pelicula $236k on 153 screens

Support for Steven Spielberg's inspirational newspaper drama The Post within awards season has been a hysterical rollercoaster. Pundits were all "it's winning everything" as the rollercoaster climbed to its peak. On the descent they're screaming "lost everything!" (GLOBES, CRITICS CHOICE) or "wasn't even nominated!" (SAG, BAFTA). But now that the public is on the ride with the press perhaps we begin to climb again towards another adrenaline rush. Whether the descent is thrilling or terrifying this time will depend on your feelings about The Post  and how many Oscar nominations it gets. Streep and Hanks and Spielberg all remain bankable so the film will do fine in theaters but will Academy voters bite after the whiplash we saw during the precursors? [More charts and thoughts are after the jump...]

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Producer's Guild Nominations: Wonder Woman is this year's Deadpool

by Nathaniel R

The Producer's Guild, by "virtue" of the fact that they have more nominees than Oscar each year, often get fairly close to "predicting" the Best Picture list. This year they've chosen 11 titles. Recency bias surely helped give Molly's Game a winning hand and the PGA's love of the blockbuster delivered for Wonder Woman which is a good call here since it did help define the year and superhero movies are very much producer events. Last year Deadpool was nominated at the PGA and was the only film to drop off on Oscar nominaiton morning. The other 9 pictures selected are all then looking strong as Best Picture possibilities for the Oscar nominations on January 23rd. Nominations and more commentary after the jump...

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38 days til Oscar nominations. 1938 favorites?

by Nathaniel R

While I update some Oscar charts, let's talk 1938. The first decade of Oscar was tumultous with rule changes and size changes in the Best Picture category but it settled at ten pictures in 1936 and stayed there for most of its second decade until five became the norm in 1944 and stayed there for decades and decades. Here's what we got in '38... 

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