Final Oscar Predictions !

With the Oscars nearly upon us, it's time for final predictions. I've written up a lengthy piece for Towleroad which I hope you'll read and you can also compare my predictions to the other Gurus of Gold at Movie City News. I shan't reprint the whole thing here since we have all those charts you can peruse and months of articles on these very races. 

While nearly everyone expects La La Land to be the major champion of the night, I don't think it will be record breaking. Damien Chazelle’s popular musical would need 12 Oscars to beat the record of 11 which was set by Ben-Hur back in 1959 and then tied by both Lord of the Rings: Return of the King (2003) and Titanic (1997). West Side Story (1961), yours truly's all time favorite movie, is the runner up to "most wins" with 10. La La Land might tie West Side Story but I'm predicting 9 wins. That's still a lot mind you but it's not quite record breaking. The number of wins for a Best Picture seems to be trending downward in the modern era. The only really truly big hauls in the past twenty years have been for The English Patient (9 wins for 1996), Titanic (11 wins in 1997), Shakespeare in Love (7 wins for 1999), Return of the King which was a special case as they were obviously rewarding the whole trilogy (11 wins for 2003), and Slumdog Millionaire (8 wins for 2008). I can't see La La Land winning less than 8.

But let's divvy up the categories into sure things, probably sure things, and very unsure things...

ALL LOCKED UP AND THEY SWALLOWED THE KEY

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Links: Atomic Blonde, Underwater Armageddon, La La Lynch,

Pajiba at what point exactly did Dev Patel get hot?
Variety Billy Brown, who previously sexed up Viola on How to Get Away with Murder, will costar with Taraji P Henson in the new thriller Proud Mary which has nothing to do with Tina Turner 
/Film Van Helsing reboot gets a new writer 
Coming Soon Charlize Theron's Coldest City gets a title change. It's now Atomic Blonde
NYT Whoa. I thought that little kid (Shailene Woodley's boy) on Big Little Lies looked familiar. Turns out he's that child theater critic who does all the popular Broadway Youtube reviews

 

Boy Culture interviews old Hollywood actor Carleton Carpenter who talks Debbie Reynolds, Cary Grant and being bisexual in Hollywood in a new memoir called "The Absolute Joy of Work"
The Playlist has ranked every best picture nominee of the 21st century. Weirdly they made a huge accounting error that kept Moulin Rouge! out of the #1 spot by a truly embarrassing margin
MNPP the King Arthur trailer is obsessed with crotches
Interview Evanna Lynch, Luna Lovegood from Harry Potter, is interviewed about her post Potter career by another Potter alum 
The New Yorker looks at Harry Belafonte's 1956 mega hit "Day-O" and the social power of song 
i09 a new movie is begin described as "Underwater Armageddon."  Kristen Stewart is in talks to headline
AV Club the law that allowed actors to have their ages hidden from IMDb is probably in danger of being overturned 
Comics Alliance the proposed X-Men TV series has not announced a list of characters yet but Blink will be amoung them. Actress Jamie Chung has been cast in the role 
Screen Crush is stating that Logan has a post-credits scene. If there is one it most definitely did not screen for critics as I waited until the lights came up. (I generally stay for credits... and did so before post-credit scenes were a regular thing)
Film School Rejects the use of primary color in La La Land 

Video To Go
La La Land as directed by David Lynch (file under: the internet is fun) and a iphone rehearsal for La La Land's opening number filmed in a  parking lot

6 Days Until Oscar: Manchester vs Hacksaw vs Lion

With 6 days to go until the big show, let's play like we did with 8 days, and look at the Best Picture nominees with that particular number of nominations. Three movies received six nominations this time though they'll facing off less directly and only in the marquee categories at that. Nevertheless, remove the other nominees from the equation for this exercize and tell us who wins in these particular face-offs...

HACKSAW RIDGE	LION	MANCHESTER
Their six nominations
Picture	Picture	Picture
Director		Director
Actor Andrew Garfield		Actor Casey Affleck
	Supporting Actress Nicole Kidman	Supporting Actress Michelle Williams
	Supporting Actor Dev Patel	Supporting Actor Lucas Hedges
	Adapted Screenplay
		Original Screenplay
	Cinematography
Film Editing
	Original Score
Sound Mixing
Sound Editing

MORE AFTER THE JUMP

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8 Days Until Oscar. Do "Moonlight" or "Arrival" have Oscar twins from the past?

With 8 days to go until Hollywood's High Holy Night let's compare our two pictures with 8 nominations each this year, Denis Villeneuve's thinky sci-fi drama and Barry Jenkins' ravishing memory/identity drama. While both films might come up empty handed on Oscar night they each have a reasonable shot at one or two statues -- Moonlight could theoretically win Supporting Actor and/or Adapted Screenplay and Arrival's best Oscar shot is probably in one or both of the Sound categories unless it surprises with Adapted Screenplay itself in what could arguably be a five way race if Moonlight is not as strong as pundits suspect there.

ARRIVAL	MOONLIGHT
Their 8 Nominations
Picture	Picture
Director	Director
	Supporting Actress
	Supporting Actor
Adapted Screenplay	Adapted Screenplay
Cinematography	Cinematography
Production Design
Film Editing	Film Editing
	Original Score
Sound Mixing
Sound Editing

In the categories where they're competing which film do you prefer?

For extra fun, though, let's find out if the either of these films have any exact Oscar doppelgangers from the past shall we?

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The Last Oscar Week

In this weekly feature from Murtada we follow Oscar contender appearances and interviews

The Oscars are just 9 days away so this will be our last Oscar Week column of the season. Let’s look at how contenders are hustling in Phase 2. In this phase campaigns pivot their messages to try and secure the win. This gives us more pointed and sometimes bold messaging. Like the exploitative use of the Muslim Travel ban by Lion. Always happy to see Sonny Pawar's expressive face, but this message is a bit of a stretch. Arrival is going for the heartstrings, showing Amy Adams hugging Jeremy Renner and talking to her daughter, rather than talking up the sci-fi elements. This is smart messaging since the mother-daughter relationship is what most leave the theater talking about...

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