Oscar Punditry: Who Will Be Our Surprise Acting Nominee and Who Could Still Be Snubbed?

By: Christopher James

Kristen Stewart looking for where her SAG nomination went.The SAG Nominations sure threw a lot of people’s Oscar predictions upside down. One can always expect SAG to throw in a major curveball or two (call it the Sarah Silverman in I Smile Back effect). However, few could’ve predicted that former frontrunner Kristen Stewart would be snubbed for her role as Princess Diana in Spencer. It was almost as surprising to see Aunjanue Ellis miss for King Richard, especially when the movie made it into Outstanding Cast!

As surprising as it all was, we now have a lot of answers (rather than guesswork) as to who the major players are in Oscar's acting races since the Globes have already announced their winners, the Critics Choice nominations have long been out, and we've also seen the BAFTA longlist. We can use math and past Oscar patterns with these precursors to determine who the acting nominees might be this year...

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Who is now in the lead for Best Actress?

by Nathaniel R and Team Experience!

The morning after and we're still reeling from the SAG nominations. But in particular what it's done to presumptions about the Best Actress category. I've updated the Oscar chart but after a brief flirtation with Nicole Kidman as #1, I suddenly felt the urge to give that spot to Olivia Colman in The Lost Daughter. Is this insane? Not exactly though it is probably the common pundit psychosis of "overthinking it". My pundit brain began imagining that all the biopic ladies are getting in each other's way with their elaborate makeovers and mimicry (or lack thereof) and through the chaos emerges the true stealth battle of all along: superstar Lady Gaga vs revered thespian Olivia Colman.

Lady Gaga is also playing a real person, like the biopic ladies, but Patrizia Reggiani isn't a famous celebrity being recreated by another famous celebrity as is the usual draw of these things. So the traditional biopic advantage (aka default love for "what a transformation!") doesn't quite apply in Gaga's case. In the end given Olivia Colman mania and Gaga's film having more detractors, is it so outlandish to presume a quick second win could very well happen. So I polled the team, hoping that a crystal clear hive mind pundit choice would emerge. Whoops! Though there is a hesistant "consensus choice" opinions are truly all over the place.

Here's how the team responded to the big question of the moment...

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SAG "Surprise" Predictions

by Nathaniel R

Will the size and stardom of DON'T LOOK UP make it a SAG favourite?

Because this season has had so little drama, let's have a little fun with punditry instead of being concerned with being correct. Let's predict one surprise in ALL of the Screen Actors Guild movie categories. This was hard to do as the natural instinct is to be "as correct / as prescient" as possible and there obviously won't be a surprise in EVERY category. That just doesn't happen.

But it was the challenge we set ourselves, so here we go...

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A conversation with a secret SAG voter

by Nathaniel R

A special treat for you today, dear readers. Yesterday I spoke to a SAG voter I've known for awhile now about their ballot choices.  I can't reveal their identity, of course, since they're not allowed to speak publicly about their votes. But we can share that they are actively working in the industry, and they do read The Film Experience from time to time (hence how we are acquainted).

We hope this conversation offers some incites into what it's like to get a ton of screeners at the end of the year and have to make these choices for your ballot.

NATHANIEL: Hello! Thanks for agreeing to do this. I know you've been a member of the Screen Actors Guild for some years but is this your first time serving on the actual Nominating Committee?

SAG VOTER: Yes. I  got an email in the summer that I had been randomly selected and whether I could meet the requirements. I was excited to influence the awards in a small way. But honestly, I think I saw visions of advance screenings dancing in my head.

And, now you're probably just sitting at home watching screener after screener. So glamorous! 

I haven’t left my couch (thanks, COVID) and I could open a DVD store. (But of course, SAG legal team, I will not. I will destroy them all as required by law.)

Before the avalanche of screeners hit, what had you seen that you were already a fan of?

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Will Omicron wreak havoc at the Oscars?

Early January is typically a big time for Oscar campaigns but the Omicron variant has events scrambling, postponing or cancelling. (Rumor is that an announcement of Sundance going all virtual is imminent.)

Patrick Ryan collected some thoughts about all of this from pundits (including yours truly) at USA Today so check it out. One of the things I mentioned to him that wasn't included since the article is more about what's happening rightnow is that I'm hopeful that the Oscars themselves will go on as planned. When they first announced the date for the tail end of March, it felt overly cautious. Though it seems like a million years ago the Parasite Oscars were in early February! Turns out the Academy was savvy not to try to jump back to previous timetables immediately! That extra padding they built in this time should help avoid another delay. 

Updated Oscar Prediction Charts