2 Days Till Oscar. Speech! Speech! Speech!

If you've been wondering what sent me into such a flashback mode these past two weeks prior to Oscar night, the answer can now be revealed.

I've been in my gold plated Oscar Laboratory crunching a ton of data for this Acceptance Speech Analysis at Slate. It's my first piece for Slate and it's even got fancy interactive infographics courtesy of Natalie Matthews-Ramos. Fun that they found a Natalie to accompany me, yes? 

It’s my firm belief that what comes out in the moment—or doesn’t—is a true reflection of feeling, whether the speech feels rehearsed and polished or immediate and spazzy. And in Hollywood—and what’s more Hollywood than the Oscars?—billing matters.

I'm so proud of it I think somebody should give me a trophy so that I can cry, shake, tremble and forget who I should be thanking on Oscar weekend. Well, all of you reading daily, for sure.

Go read it and share with everyone you'd thank on the big night.

12 Days Till Oscar. What Happened to the Juvenile Oscars?

Remember when... Okay, scratch the "remember when?" question this time. Unless there are some really really ancient AMPAS members reading. The Oscars weren't televised yet so nobody could remember this one unless they were there.

What was Judy Garland so happy about at the 1939 Oscars? (circa February 1940)

I mean besides sitting with 'The First Lady of MGM' Norma Shearer which would obviously make anyone euphoric.

Judy G was having a good night because The Wizard of Oz was up for six Oscars including Best Picture. It won two music prizes (Best Score and Best Original Song to the very nearly cut "Over the Rainbow"). Judy also won a special juvenile Oscar, presented to her by her frequent co-star Mickey Rooney who had won the year before.

One wonders why they don't still award those. They weren't annual so it took a special performances for the Academy to go there. They only did so 11 times in their first 33 years ending with Hayley Mills for Polyanna (1960)

I can think of several people through the years who would have been relieved if they passed those out instead of letting the kids compete with the grownups. Every time a child is nominated an adult gets bumped out of the shortlist. I mean would Winona Ryder be an Oscar winner today if Anna Paquin had been given a miniature Oscar instead? Would Madeline Kahn have been an Oscar winner for Paper Moon (1973) if Tatum O'Neal hadn't committed category fraud and won doing so for the same film?

Do you think child acting should be judged separately?

If they were still handing them out do you think Thomas Horn would've been the recipient this year since they obviously liked Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close more than critics did?

Perhaps I should have a child acting category at the Film Bitch Awards. I never know who to nominate at the BFCA "Critics Choice" award in their "young actor" category because I always forget to think about child performances.

Box Office: Without Super Powers, You Are Nothing

The global love of superpowered young men hasn't even begun to decline as the star-less Chronicle, about three teenagers who develop uncanny powers opened at #1 for Superbowl weekend. It almost doubled its production budget on opening weekend. Harry Potter himself Daniel Radcliffe had to settle for second place with The Woman in Black but that's probably because he's no longer the most powerful wizard on earth.

Chronicle is unkind to cars.

BAKERS DOZEN (Estimates)
01 CHRONICLE  $22 new  
02 THE WOMAN IN BLACK  $21 new  
03 THE GREY $9.5 (cum. $34.7)
04 BIG MIRACLE  $8.5 new
05 UNDERWORLD AWAKENING $5.6 (cum. $54.3)
06 ONE FOR THE MONEY $5.2 (cum. $19.6)
07 RED TAILS  $5 ($41.3)
08 THE DESCENDANTS  $4.6  (cum. $65.5)
09 MAN ON A LEDGE $4.5 (cum. $14.7)
10 EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE $3.9 (cum. $26.7)
11 CONTRABAND  $3.4 (cum. $26.7) (cum. $62.1)
12 THE ARTIST $2.5 (cum. $20.5)
13 BEAUTY & THE BEAST 3D  $2.4 rerelease  

Someone's wearing lifts... Janet McTeer is 6'1". Daniel Radcliffe is 5'5"

Talking Points
• It's a good weekend for Janet McTeer, huh? Not only did she finally feel some major industry love again post Tumbleweeds (1999) with her Albert Nobbs Oscar nomination, but she's co-starring in The Woman in Black. What's more Albert Nobbs held up well in limited release, according to IndieWire suggesting it has more life in it yet. Will it expand further now?

• The Descendants may soon surpass Sideways to become Alexander Payne's biggest hit yet. It's just 6 million behind it now.

• A Separation has crossed the 1 million mark which is a big deal these days for a foreign film. Hopefully they'll keep expanding since they've just been adding a tiny number of screens each week. 

• The Artist is slowing down a bit in wide release but it's already tap danced its way clear of being called "lowest grossing Best Picture winner ever" (should it win) since it's a bigger hit than The Hurt Locker. That said anything that wins this year beyond The Help is going to end up in the 10 lowest grossers list. The Atlantic did some tallying and adjusting for inflation a year ago and they claim that these are the lowest grossing Best Pictures ever. All of them are superpower free (unless you count Javier Bardem's "Chigurh" as a supernatural evil force which maybe you can):

1. The Hurt Locker (2009) $15
2. All The Kings Men (1949) $60
3. Hamlet (1948)  $61
4. An American in Paris  (1951) $67
5. Crash (2005)  $67
6. Marty (1955) $70
7. No Country For Old Men (2007) $85
8. lt Happened One Night (1934) $86
9. The Last Emperor (1987) $89
10. The Great Ziegfeld (1936) $95

What did you see this weekend?

Readers' Ranking: Streep's Oscar Noms, #10-6

Previously on Streep Reader Rankings we covered The French Lieutenant's Woman, Music of the Heart,  Doubt, The Deer Hunter, One True Thing, and Ironweed. Now we hit the top ten. Ten and Nine were a statistical tie, constantly trading dominance as I tallied the results of your ballots. Since both films were listed in last place on 7% of the ballots, I broke the tie by looking at first place votes. Only one of the two had any.

TOP TEN STREEP NOMINATED PERFORMANCES
According to The Film Experience Readers

10. Julie & Julia (2009)
Role & Balloting: Streep has played many biographical parts in her long career which accounts for some of her record-obliterating nomination haul (8 of her 17 nominations are for biographical roles and she is now 5 nominations beyond her nearest rival Jack Nicholson). This widely seen warm serio-comic interpretation of the famous chef Julia Child is the last film in the countdown without any #1 placements on reader ballots.

Who Won the Oscar: Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Other Nominees in Guesstimate Order of AMPAS Love: Meryl (Julie & Julia), Gabourey Sidibe (Precious), Carey Mulligan (An Education) and Helen Mirren (The Last Station)
The Dread Sixth Place Finish?:  One supposes the fifth slot was neck and neck between Mirren and Emily Blunt (The Young Victoria). There wasn't a ton of enthusiasm for either film though, since the top four candidates absorbed all the Oscar heat. 

09. Out of Africa (1985)
Role & Balloting: Streep had another huge success with this romantic epic about the Danish author Isak Dinesen (aka Karen Blixen). If Geraldine Page hadn't been so absurdly overdue (It was her 8th nomination which was at the time the longest stretch by any actor without ever having won the gold. Peter O'Toole now holds the record with 8 nominations without a win) the Best Actress race would've been between Whoopi and Streep both headlining very very big hits. (The Eighties were a different time with box office and moviegoing;  people still flocked to prestige dramas in big numbers.)

Who Won the Oscar: Geraldine Page, The Trip To Bountiful
Other Nominees in Guesstimate Order of AMPAS Love: Whoopi Goldberg (The Color Purple), Meryl (Out of Africa), Anne Bancroft (Agnes of God) and Jessica Lange (Sweet Dreams)
The Dread Sixth Place Finish?:  Cher was left on the outside looking in for Mask as the mother of a deformed boy. The snub even resulted in an Oscar night moment when Cher, clad in one of her typically outre outfits quipped:

As you can see, I did receive my Academy booklet on how to dress like a serious actress."

Reader Comment. Marcos writes:

I first noticed Streep in The Deer Hunter. I liked her a lot and was impressed, but I became utterly fascinated when I was able to realize the extent to which she immersed herself in roles that were so different. Choosing between Bridges and Out of Africa [for #1] was difficult. One of Streep's best scenes ever was her lover's funeral. She moves forward to grab a handful of earth to throw it on Robert Redford's grave. She moves ahead, but the camera stays still. She grabs some earth and extends her arm to throw it on his grave. Her hand starts shaking and, without releasing the earth, she brings it to her chest and walks away."

Three more Oscar roles after the jump

Click to read more ...

What do the Oscar gowns of the past 22 years tell us?

It's something like an urban legend that actresses only wear gold to the Oscar ceremony if they think they are going to win. But check out this frankly amazing infographic from US Dish for lots of other interesting statistics regarding our favorite public thing (Oscars) and one of our secret favorite things: colorology.

What pleasurable research hours they must have put in! They've broken down Supporting Actress and Actress gowns from 1990-2011 ceremonies to determine the top trends for the nominees based on designer, color, dress style, and hairdo. And they've crunched those numbers further to show which elements are most likely to appear with winners and losers. So, for instance, if you really really really want to win you should be wearing gold with your hair up in a floor length gown designed by Gautier. Or at the very least updo, floor-length, brown Randolph Duke!

IT'S SCIENCE!

It won't surprise you to hear that of the 200+ dresses of the nominees, black was worn most often (28% of the time) but I was mildly surprised to see that red was down in 4th place (8%).

I only wish they would have had a Streep Sidebar, since she's there the most frequently and it's actually really hard to find EVERY Oscar dress worn by one specific actress over the years. Not that I've tried b... okay, I've tried. Don't judge.