Who could surprise *without* SAG/Globe precursors on Tuesday?

The following article is reprinted from The Many Rantings of John with his permission. We have attempted to lure him to joining The Film Experience but we had to share this wonderful stat-fascinating piece! You should also follow him on Letterboxd. (Consider this piece a companion of sorts to Chris's piece on statistically who might still be vulnerable despite love from the precursors)

Sipping Oscar tea

by John T.

Every year since 2006 at least one nominee for the Oscars was not highlighted by either the HFPA (the Golden Globes) or SAG-AFTRA, and becomes the "shock" of the morning.  At this point in the season, predicting the Oscars is something of a slog because so much is "decided" so trying to guess who will be this nominee becomes quite fun.  

Here are the people from the past ten years who fit this bill:

2021: Penelope Cruz, Jesse Plemons, JK Simmons, Judi Dench, & Jessie Buckley
2020: Paul Raci & LaKeith Stanfield
2019: Florence Pugh
2018: Marina de Tavira & Yalitza Aparicio
2017: Lesley Manville
2016: Michael Shannon
2015: Charlotte Rampling, Tom Hardy, & Mark Ruffalo
2014: Bradley Cooper, Marion Cotillard, & Laura Dern
2013: Jonah Hill
2012: Quvenzhane Wallis, Emmanuelle Riva, & Jacki Weaver

Usually the types of nominees that get in under this designation fall into one of two categories...

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"Pinocchio" and "Living" among USC Scripter Nominations

by Nathaniel R

The annual USC Scripter awards honor film and television adapted from other literary sources. The cool thing about them is they award both the current screenwriter and the original author being adapted.

It should be one of the nomination announcements that excite us the most each year in terms of assessment of screenwriting -- the jury is generally made up of writers and critics -- but they often fail to live up to their potential. Usually that's a result of them hewing very close to the Oscar conversation rather than suggesting that the full jury has actually been watching plentiful movies year round and thinking about the craft of writing. Whch is not to say that some of their choices aren't strong but there's usually at least one title that suggests they've been reading Oscar tea leaves rather than books and screenplays. I'll leave it to you to glean what that title is this year. They get a little more creative with the TV side, perhaps because there's no current awards buzz (Emmys were over a few months ago) to piggyback on...

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Critics Choice Award Winners, Blanchett's Speech, and More

by Nathaniel R

Last night the Critics Choice Awards were held and broadcast on the CW. They copied and pasted many of the winners from the Golden Globes, though not quite all. To their credit, though, the repeat acting winners mostly seemed to understand this (a stark change from years past where you'd hear the same speech at every show) and didn't copy and paste their own speeches. There were also a few differences in attendance that varied things up (most noticeably Cate Blanchett who didn't attend the Globes; she won at both). But it was a dull night, overall, if you weren't in the room. We've gone before of course but it's been a few years and it does feel different if you're inside the room. Especially if you manage to get a seat at a fun table. 

For the low energy, maybe we should blame the absence of awesome cheerleader Jamie Lee Curtis whose enthusiasm was very much missed since Everything Everywhere All At Once kept winning awards (it took five in total, the most prizes for anything)  The winners and a few more comments after the jump...

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Left off the "Cast" list! (Our annual SAG outrage)

by Nathaniel R

It's a tradition of ours at The Film Experience for a long time now to note the egregious problem that they never fix in SAG voting. Which is that you have to be famous enough to get your own title card in order to be included in your movie's "Outstanding Cast" nominations. This has led to some truly grotesque omissions over the years... especially for scene-stealers whose breakout performances weren't honored even though they definitely helped the film to that very same "Cast" nomination.

If you're curious about this rule we explain it better here. This year we're already very late with this annual article, so let's get right into the SAG Outstanding Cast nominations and complain about who ISN'T nominated despite doing great work in those ensembles...

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Cinematography - the guild nominations

by Nathaniel R

EMPIRE OF LIGHT

One of our favourite guild awards each year is the American Society of Cinematographers. This is not, primarily for their main category but the "spotlight" category which gives us a peek at which films far outside the main Oscar conversation they actually watched and thought about from a craft standpoint. More guilds should have awards like this. Their nominees are after the jump...

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