Which young male actors will factor into awards season?

by Nathaniel R

Gabriel Labelle in "The Fabelmans"

While rising stars are a semi-annual event in the female acting categories, Oscar voters have long been resistant to young male actors. The statistics bear this out. For whatever reason (cough *the patriarchy*) voters prefer their women young / full of potential and their men older / with lots of achievements already under their belt. Yes, those stats are beginning to change. For example, Oscar voters have been much kinder to 40something to 60something actresses in the past couple of decades than they previously were. With the men, though, things have stayed much the same. 

Once men enter their 30s, awards bodies tend to take them seriously but before the 30something years it definitely takes a very special combination of the right role in the right film in the right year and with the right co-stars. Do you think any of these men will make it this year? Here are eight actors, thirty or younger, that are in the conversation or adjacent to it this season...

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"Joyland" banned in Pakistan. Can it still compete at the Oscars?

by Nathaniel R

Saim Sadiq (via Instagram, left) and a memorable shot from his feature debut "Joyland" (right)

Censorship has been part of the history of art forever. The ways in which we think of censorship in Hollywood cinema usually involve ratings boards or production codes... self-censorship from the industry to prevent outside censorship from the government. It's less a case of banning art than an attempt to keep storytellers in line with accepted norms, however conservative those norms might be in their time. When the story of censorship visibly collides with the Oscar race, though, it's usually across the border and in the Best International Feature Film category. Now we have another of those stories via Pakistan's Oscar submission Joyland. 

The movie, a brilliant feature debut from 31 year old filmmaker Saim Sadiq, is a drama about a young husband in Lahore who falls for a trans performer after being hired by a local dance theater. It first came to international attention when it premiered at Cannes (the first Pakistani movie to do so) and won both Un Certain Regard and the Queer Palm. Just a week before its premiere in Pakistan its release was denied, endangering its Oscar run.  Questions naturally crop out like "Why would a country submit a film and then ban it?" and "Can it still compete?" so let's answer those...

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Is Margot Robbie about to shake up the Best Actress race?

by Nathaniel R

While it would be foolish to consider any Oscar race locked up before any mainstream precursor nominations have been announced, Best Actress sure feels like it's solidifying as a race between Cate Blanchett, Michelle Yeoh, Danielle Deadwyler, and Michelle Williams. Any of them (except Cate of course) could be a surprise snub if precursor season throw us curveballs. If it's true that the race has narrowed down to these four (again that's only the assumption) than the fifth slot is where the drama is at the moment. Former Oscar winners Olivia Colman and Viola Davis remain distinct possibilities (when Oscar loves you, they love you) and people will start seeing Margot Robbie's performance in Babylon this week. If her star turn is as juicy and fun and focus-seizing as the trailer suggests, it's hard to picture her not being in the hunt for that third nomination. Perhaps she'll emerge from the first reviews as a genuine threat for a win if the first audience raves as much as her co-star Eric Roberts is raving about her. We know that the internet likes to "solve" categories long before the first mainstream precursor announces but it's important to keep an open mind before films are screened. If she seizes the imagination of the audience with her drug-addled wild-child movie star, the sky might be the limit. For now, on the updated chart, we'll place her fifth.

What does your hunch say about who the nominees will be and who might have a true shot at the win? 

Chart Updates: Best Picture... and how much diversity will we get in Best Director?

by Nathaniel R

Sarah Polley on the set of "Women Talking". Photographed by Michael Gibson for Orion Releasing

So what's going to get a Best Picture and who will get a Best Director nomination? The possible combinations of 10 and 5 contenders, respectively, are many. While Best Picture could well find a mix that doesn't upset too many people (10 is a lot to work with) Best Director will likely be more fraught. So let's talk Best Director first...

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Will "Best Supporting Actress" prove the most volatile category this year?

by Nathaniel R

Kerry Condon is brilliant in "Banshees of Inisherin". Oscar nomination forthcoming

Early December has a way of suddenly narrowing down Oscar nomination dreams but until we get there, the year's most volatile acting category feels like Best Supporting Actress. From the plethora of films with multiple options (Women Talking, The Woman King, Everything Everywhere All At Once, Glass Onion, Tár, She Said) to stand-outs in films with male leads (The Banshees of Inisherin, Armageddon Time, Triangle of Sadness, The Whale, The Inspection) and one key still-to-screen performance (Jean Smart in Babylon), there are a lot of valid choices for Academy members. And that isn't even all of the options if they're feeling freethinking and adventurous this season (rare but one can always dream).

At this point we're predicting...

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