Is Margot Robbie about to shake up the Best Actress race?

by Nathaniel R

While it would be foolish to consider any Oscar race locked up before any mainstream precursor nominations have been announced, Best Actress sure feels like it's solidifying as a race between Cate Blanchett, Michelle Yeoh, Danielle Deadwyler, and Michelle Williams. Any of them (except Cate of course) could be a surprise snub if precursor season throw us curveballs. If it's true that the race has narrowed down to these four (again that's only the assumption) than the fifth slot is where the drama is at the moment. Former Oscar winners Olivia Colman and Viola Davis remain distinct possibilities (when Oscar loves you, they love you) and people will start seeing Margot Robbie's performance in Babylon this week. If her star turn is as juicy and fun and focus-seizing as the trailer suggests, it's hard to picture her not being in the hunt for that third nomination. Perhaps she'll emerge from the first reviews as a genuine threat for a win if the first audience raves as much as her co-star Eric Roberts is raving about her. We know that the internet likes to "solve" categories long before the first mainstream precursor announces but it's important to keep an open mind before films are screened. If she seizes the imagination of the audience with her drug-addled wild-child movie star, the sky might be the limit. For now, on the updated chart, we'll place her fifth.

What does your hunch say about who the nominees will be and who might have a true shot at the win? 

Chart Updates: Best Picture... and how much diversity will we get in Best Director?

by Nathaniel R

Sarah Polley on the set of "Women Talking". Photographed by Michael Gibson for Orion Releasing

So what's going to get a Best Picture and who will get a Best Director nomination? The possible combinations of 10 and 5 contenders, respectively, are many. While Best Picture could well find a mix that doesn't upset too many people (10 is a lot to work with) Best Director will likely be more fraught. So let's talk Best Director first...

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Will "Best Supporting Actress" prove the most volatile category this year?

by Nathaniel R

Kerry Condon is brilliant in "Banshees of Inisherin". Oscar nomination forthcoming

Early December has a way of suddenly narrowing down Oscar nomination dreams but until we get there, the year's most volatile acting category feels like Best Supporting Actress. From the plethora of films with multiple options (Women Talking, The Woman King, Everything Everywhere All At Once, Glass Onion, Tár, She Said) to stand-outs in films with male leads (The Banshees of Inisherin, Armageddon Time, Triangle of Sadness, The Whale, The Inspection) and one key still-to-screen performance (Jean Smart in Babylon), there are a lot of valid choices for Academy members. And that isn't even all of the options if they're feeling freethinking and adventurous this season (rare but one can always dream).

At this point we're predicting...

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Chart Updates: Best Animated & Documentary Features

by Nathaniel R

"All the Beauty and the Bloodshed" won Venice, but nothing is ever locked for the Documentary nominations as they pass over many frontrunners.

Happy weekend, Oscar fantastics. Figured it was time to finally put up the Documentary Feature chart now that we know several of the potential biggies. How do we suddenly know them given that documentaries arrive each and every week with little indication of whether they'll be Emmy or Oscar fodder? The answer is three key buzz-boosting factors...

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Who will be nominated for Production Design?

by Nathaniel R

As we did with Costume Design, let's look at the most likely Oscar contenders in its sister Eye Candy category (i.e. the "Moulin Rouge!" categories), Best Production Design. The following nine films are not ranked but grouped in 'types'-- in fact I don't think the last two have much of a prayer but in a just world, they would! Oscar voters vote solely on the category achievement itself (as they should) but on all sorts of things first and foremost being whether they like the film itself. It also helps to belong to the right genre and, in the case of craft categories, to have a showy "Most" feeling... 

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