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Saturday
Jan212017

Final Oscar Nomination Predictions Complete!

... unless I change my mind Sunday night.

Best Actress and Best Supporting Actor
In both of these categories after much tinkering, jigsaw reconfigurations, and what ifs I said to myself something I rarely say to myself even though I shouldn't be so stingy with these words "you're overthinking it". So I'm going for no surprises rather than surprises in both categories. I do however strongy believe that if someone misses in Best Actress it's either Portman (yes really) or Streep and the replacements is Annette Bening (who should be competing for the win but we can't always have nice things, now can we?). If I have a last minute change of heart, I think I'm going to predict a surprise Portman snub and a Bening nomination. Streep seems most vulnerable of the top five in theory (not a lot of excitement about her film or performance... just her being Streep and that awesome Golden Globe speech) but with so much support still for so many women, her default-to-Streep advantage will probably come into play.

In supporting actor I was toying with a Ben Foster surprises scenario, because even after the Globe win and BAFTA nomination I don't  totally buy the Aaron Taylor-Johnson buzz. I've resisted predicting Lucas Hedges most of the year (the only man in that lineup who I think is vulnerable) because of his age. Though he'll be the 8th youngest male acting nominee in supporting EVER at age 20, I think the Best Picture lock-up for his vehicle and Casey Affleck's likely #1 placements on a huge number of ballots should give him just the boost he needs. 

Index | Pic | Dir | Actress | Actor | Supp Actress | Supp Actor | Foreign |Screenplays | Visual | Aural | Animation & Documentaries 

Friday
Jan202017

Oscar Predix & Personal Ballots: The Moulin Rouge! Categories...

If you've read The Film Experience for any length of time beyond let's say, a week, you'll know that we live for eye candy. Three of the cinematic arts that most regularly provide this are, outside of beautiful movie stars in the acting categories, Production Design and Costume Design i.e. the Moulin Rouge! categories. We love these categories so much we have two weekly series for them, Daniel Walber's "The Furniture" and my own forthcoming costume series "Three Fittings".

Anyway, it's time to make our final predictions for Oscar but it's also time to get those Film Bitch Awards (my own long running awards jamboree) going. So herewith my personal ballot and, putting the pundit hat on, my Oscar predictions. These two modes should not be confused... so apologies for discussing them simultaneously. This is what happens when you procrastinate!

Will Stuart Craig receive his 5th nomination directly from the Potterverse (he had 6 nominations and 3 wins before the Potterverse took over his life)

Production Design - Oscar Predictions
I figure this is a slot for the BAFTA surging Nocturnal Animals and I'm predicting that at the expensive of the haunting minimalistic sci-fi of Arrival (work I really really love. Sigh). That damn outdoor potty and the opening art world light slabs will do it. This is an interesting category, though, and I'm going to predict The Handmaiden both because it is hugely deserving and because of all the critics foreign film prizes and the LAFCA prize in this very category. If Park Chan Wook's brilliant film is going to score anywhere it will be here (with an outside shot at costumes, too). There's plentiful buzz around Doctor Strange and Fantastic Beasts (they do love the Harry Potter films in this category but come one, how many times do we need to dip in that well with so many richly art directed films of all genres happening each year ?!?). Question: is Doctor Strange really well liked enough to score multiple nods when so many other Marvel Studio films couldn't do it? 

NATHANIEL'S BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN BALLOT
• DANIEL, WHO WRITES "THE FURNITURE," ALSO NAMED HIS 5 FAVORITES 

 

Costume Design
If you really give in to the predictive mania of at home Oscar punditry costume design will surely drive you craziest. What an impossible category to predict this year!  Since the CDG has multiple categories they've covered a ton of possibilities  and the ones they didn't still have buzz for costumes anyway. Just thinking casually about the films won't help. On paper you might think: oh easy, period pieces + a little Colleen Atwood and you're done (Jackie, Florence Foster Jenkins, Hidden Figures, Love & Friendship, and Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them). But not so fast. Silence, Hail Caesar, and Allied also feature period costumes and they're both buzzing for this category which is easily understandable if you've seen them given the gorgeous work. Even stranger, at least in terms of Oscar history, is that people are talking up not one but two contemporary films: Captain Fantastic as a dark horse (yes please) and La La Land as a sure thing. And that's before you even consider outside possibilities like Kubo and the Two Strings (which wants to be the first animated film nominated here, with all those lovingly detailed miniature costumes), less showy period fare like Fences, Cafe Society or Loving, a costuming legend in Albert Wolsky (Rules Don't Apply). Finally there's a foreign possibility in this category, too, via the The Handmaiden. Here's my best guess though I'm prepared to go 1 or 2 for 5 because I've taken quite a chance on two of them that aren't anything like sure things (The Dressmaker and Hidden Figures) but who the hell knows!?!

 

Friday
Jan202017

In Praise of SAG's "Fences" Ensemble Nomination...

by Brian Zitzelman

photo src

As Viola Davis marches towards Oscar #1 and Denzel Washington to nomination #7 for Fences, let us not forget the other wonderful players in the film. Garnering a SAG nomination for Outstanding Ensemble, Fences is a small, but rich cast... 

Click to read more ...

Friday
Jan202017

Tweetweek: Spinster Bette, Jazzy La La Land, and gallows humor for our new reality

More tweets after the jump including Jesse Bradford, La La Land, Black Panther, Meryl Streep and gallows humor to get us through this horrific new America ...

Click to read more ...

Friday
Jan202017

Actress in a Supporting Role, Personal Ballot

Oscar predictions are already up for Best Supporting Actress.

Will Greta Gerwig read good news or bad next week?

It's looking like the most settled of the acting categories with Viola Davis, Michelle Williams, Naomie Harris, Nicole Kidman, and Octavia Spencer all widely expected to place.

If there's a sudden shift look for either Greta Gerwig or Janelle Monae to spoil... or enliven the party, depending on your preferences. "Spoiler" is such a weird word in this context, no? Regardless, it will be a good year for the Academy in Supporting Actress with all seven of those performances that ranging from quite good to phenomenal; we'll take it!

But it's not my personal ballot and that's not only because I consider Viola Davis a lead in Fences (I realize others feel differently). Three of those names above, however, do make my personal list. The two I'd like to add to the mix are Riley Keough, so mesmerizingly trashy/real as a entrepeneur (of sorts) toying with her underlings in American Honey and Elle Fanning doing the best work of her already lauded teenage career (thus far) in 20th Century Women. Read the writeups here at the Film Bitch Awards.